Retail sales, small business sentiment, and other news affecting your money in the week ahead

Wall Street will be monitoring the all-important retail sales report due on Friday, especially as the holidays draw near. And a monthly survey of small business owners is scheduled for release on Tuesday. Economists forecast a big increase in consumer spendingWhat’s happening: The monthly retail sales report for November is scheduled for release on Friday, December 13. Small business owners may feel more optimisticWhat’s happening: A monthly report that measures confidence among small business o


Wall Street will be monitoring the all-important retail sales report due on Friday, especially as the holidays draw near.
And a monthly survey of small business owners is scheduled for release on Tuesday.
Economists forecast a big increase in consumer spendingWhat’s happening: The monthly retail sales report for November is scheduled for release on Friday, December 13.
Small business owners may feel more optimisticWhat’s happening: A monthly report that measures confidence among small business o
Retail sales, small business sentiment, and other news affecting your money in the week ahead Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: anna-louise jackson
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, traders, small, week, sentiment, business, affecting, owners, ahead, report, money, economy, retail, trade, sales


Retail sales, small business sentiment, and other news affecting your money in the week ahead

The record-busting rally in the U.S. stock market has taken a pause. After major benchmarks set several all-time highs in December, the S&P 500 fell nearly 2% in three days before recovering to end the week higher. Experts say trade remains “the biggest risk out there” for the stock market right now, and that’s likely to create some choppiness in the weeks ahead. That’s because there’s a December 15 deadline looming for China and the U.S. to reach a trade deal before additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods take effect. The coming week is likely to be busy. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday directed the House committees investigating President Donald Trump to proceed with articles of impeachment, and the Judiciary committee is scheduled to hold a hearing Monday morning on the evidence gathered in the inquiry. The Federal Reserve also will meet for its eighth and final time this year on Tuesday and Wednesday. While surprises on either front could rattle traders, pros point out that even big news can be “a nonissue for the market.” Wall Street will be monitoring the all-important retail sales report due on Friday, especially as the holidays draw near. And a monthly survey of small business owners is scheduled for release on Tuesday. Here’s what to watch in the stock market during the week ahead — and how the news could affect your bottom line.

Economists forecast a big increase in consumer spending

What’s happening: The monthly retail sales report for November is scheduled for release on Friday, December 13. This details how much American consumers spent on things like clothing and food. Economists currently forecast the biggest month-over-month increase in spending since August. Last month’s report showed that retail sales rebounded after falling in September, though Americans cut back on buying big-ticket household items. Meanwhile, economists project that another report due Wednesday will show that average hourly earnings ticked up slightly in November. Why it matters: American consumers have been very resilient this year, even amid signs of slowing in the broader economy. Reports in the past week showed that sentiment improved to the second-best number 2019 and consumers are borrowing more money via revolving credit, like credit cards, at rates not seen since July. Traders on Wall Street track the monthly retail sales report closely because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic growth. What it means for you: Perhaps you haven’t made any changes to your shopping habits, but what your neighbors do matters to the overall economy. What’s more, there are less than three weeks until Christmas and the start of Hanukkah — and spending during the all-important holiday shopping season accounts for about 20% of annual retail sales each year, according to the National Retail Federation.

Small business owners may feel more optimistic

What’s happening: A monthly report that measures confidence among small business owners is scheduled for release on Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business. This survey looks at 10 different components, like whether business owners plan to hire more workers or spend more money, and how they feel about the economy. Why it matters: Businesses with fewer than 500 workers account for almost half of private sector employment, so traders closely monitor how these business owners feel. A separate poll last week found that optimism about the future of U.S. trade policy helped lift confidence among small business owners, according to the fourth-quarter 2019 CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey. Trade has been key to the rebound in sentiment among business owners, so there’s also a risk if China and the U.S. can’t reach a deal before additional tariffs take effect. That means traders will be keen to see if there are any clues about future readings, especially because sentiment this year has been lower, on average, than either 2017 or 2018. What it means for you: Even if you don’t work for a small business, chances are you know someone who does. Hiring plans are good to track because they reveal important clues about the overall health of the U.S. economy. If employers pull back on adding workers to their payrolls, that may make it more difficult for job seekers to find a new position. Last month’s broader jobs report showed that employers added 266,000 jobs, the most since January. The U.S. economy is nearing full employment, meaning almost everyone willing and able to work can. And it’s generally been a good year for workers.

The bottom line


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: anna-louise jackson
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, traders, small, week, sentiment, business, affecting, owners, ahead, report, money, economy, retail, trade, sales


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‘Give gifts of money’ this holiday season, says etiquette expert

The best way to give a gift is to give people what they want, not what you think they should have, says Elaine Swann, an etiquette expert. Across all generations, money for personal spending is the No. 1 present when ranked against tangible gifts, experiences, and money for bills or experiences, according to the Zelle study, but younger people are on record as being the most excited. “Millennials have definitely changed the landscape in terms of the way we give gifts now,” says Swann. Here are s


The best way to give a gift is to give people what they want, not what you think they should have, says Elaine Swann, an etiquette expert.
Across all generations, money for personal spending is the No.
1 present when ranked against tangible gifts, experiences, and money for bills or experiences, according to the Zelle study, but younger people are on record as being the most excited.
“Millennials have definitely changed the landscape in terms of the way we give gifts now,” says Swann.
Here are s
‘Give gifts of money’ this holiday season, says etiquette expert Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: ivana pino
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, holiday, way, prefer, perfect, spending, gifts, zelle, expert, etiquette, money, gift, season, personal, experiences


'Give gifts of money' this holiday season, says etiquette expert

During the holidays, you might feel extra pressure to shop for the perfect gift for each of your friends and family members, but if what you really want to do is skip the shopping trip and send them cash, that’s perfectly acceptable. In fact, your recipient might well prefer it.

About two-thirds of people say that they prefer the gift of money to pay for experiences, bills, or personal spending, according to a 2019 online survey of U.S. adults conducted by Early Warning Services, LLC, the network operator behind the Zelle payments network.

While giving money seems impersonal, it can be the greatest gift of all for those who need cash to cover their expenses, or for those whose idea of the perfect gift is the freedom to treat themselves.

The best way to give a gift is to give people what they want, not what you think they should have, says Elaine Swann, an etiquette expert. That can mean sending them money so that they can choose how they want to spend it.

Giving the gift of money is becoming more widely accepted, too: “It used to be a taboo thing to give money or ask for it, but it’s now becoming part of our society to give gifts of money and then to graciously accept those gifts as well,” says Swann.

Across all generations, money for personal spending is the No. 1 present when ranked against tangible gifts, experiences, and money for bills or experiences, according to the Zelle study, but younger people are on record as being the most excited. “Millennials have definitely changed the landscape in terms of the way we give gifts now,” says Swann.

Here are some guidelines for graciously giving the gift of money over the holiday season.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: ivana pino
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, holiday, way, prefer, perfect, spending, gifts, zelle, expert, etiquette, money, gift, season, personal, experiences


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Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

Several investors and strategists are betting on international stocks outperforming the U.S. in the new year, something that has only happened twice since 2010. “A reacceleration in global growth, a weaker US dollar, and favorable valuations should all support non-US stocks next year.” Callum Thomas, head of research at Topdown Charts, notes there is a “50% valuation gap” between U.S. and international stocks. These moves could spur a resurgence in global economic growth, which would “disproport


Several investors and strategists are betting on international stocks outperforming the U.S. in the new year, something that has only happened twice since 2010.
“A reacceleration in global growth, a weaker US dollar, and favorable valuations should all support non-US stocks next year.”
Callum Thomas, head of research at Topdown Charts, notes there is a “50% valuation gap” between U.S. and international stocks.
These moves could spur a resurgence in global economic growth, which would “disproport
Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, valuation, growth, bets, stocks, wall, global, international, equities, msci, index, street, economic, slump, europe, decadelong, 2020


Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying numbers of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the world’s major markets in Tokyo. Kazuhiro Nogi | AFP | Getty Images

(This story is part of the Weekend Brief edition of the Evening Brief newsletter. To sign up for CNBC’s Evening Brief, click here.) U.S. equities have been the best place to invest during the past 10 years, but that dominance could shift in 2020. Several investors and strategists are betting on international stocks outperforming the U.S. in the new year, something that has only happened twice since 2010. U.S. stocks have blown their international counterparts out of the water in that time. The S&P 500 is up more than 180% and the MSCI ACWI ex U.S. exchange-traded fund (ACWX) has gained just 18% since 2010. Emerging markets have fared even worse this decade against the S&P 500. The iShares MSCI Emerging Market Index is up just 4% since 2010. However, market experts think international stocks are poised for a comeback in 2020 versus the U.S. due to attractive valuations and a potential trough in global economic growth as world central banks take up more stimulative measures. “Having underperformed for more than ten years, non-US stocks are set to gain the upper hand over their US peers,” Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, said in a note. “A reacceleration in global growth, a weaker US dollar, and favorable valuations should all support non-US stocks next year.”

Valuation favors international

The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio, a widely used valuation metric on Wall Street, currently sits above 20. That’s the average’s richest valuation since August 2018. That high valuation follows the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs despite a year-over-year earnings decline. International stocks, however, are trading at a much lower valuation. Through Friday’s close, the ACWI fund’s price-to-earnings ratio rested around 14.7. Callum Thomas, head of research at Topdown Charts, notes there is a “50% valuation gap” between U.S. and international stocks. “Yes global ex-US has its problems, but are they 50% discount problems? At a certain point if the valuation gap is wide enough it kind of starts to speak for itself,” he said in a note. This wide valuation gap comes as global economic growth has slowed down while the U.S. economy keeps humming. Last week, the Commerce Department said U.S. GDP expanded by 2.1% in the third quarter. Economies around the world, meanwhile, have been stuck in the mud as manufacturing activity falls and trade conditions tighten. In Europe, manufacturing activity hit a seven-year low in October. It rebounded slightly in November but remained in contraction territory, data from IHS Markit showed. On the trade front, the U.S.-China conflict continues as both sides try to sign a so-called phase one deal. President Donald Trump also said Monday the U.S. will restore tariffs on metal imports from Brazil and Argentina. These factors, however, have led global central banks to ease monetary policy. The European Central Bank launched a new bond-buying program earlier this year. The People’s Bank of China lowered its short-term funding rate for the first time since 2015 last month, and the Bank of Japan has kept monetary policy easy throughout 2019.

Global economic rebound?

The trade tensions between China and the U.S. have eased slightly in recent months as both sides show they are willing to reach some sort of deal. These moves could spur a resurgence in global economic growth, which would “disproportionately benefit” international stocks relative to the U.S., BCA’s Berezin said. “The sector composition of international stocks is more skewed towards cyclicals than defensives compared to US stocks,” Berezin said. “As a result, non-US stocks generally outperform their US peers when global growth accelerates.” To be sure, global stocks may be pricing in these scenarios already. Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategy at Morgan Stanley, said the MSCI All-Country World Index — which measures the performance of global stocks including the U.S. — has already produced returns that are “meaningfully higher” since hitting its December 2018 lows. “That is consistent with a bottoming in global economic growth, meaning that markets are sending a signal about the turn in growth and pricing it in many cases,” Wilson said.

What to buy overseas

Wilson recommends investors buy into Japanese and Korean stocks in 2020. He also has an underweight rating on U.S. stocks heading into next year. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) is up more than 18% this year, on pace for its biggest annual gain since 2017. The ETF rose 22.7% that year. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is also up 16.4% for 2019. Korean stocks, however, have not fared nearly as well this year. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) is down more than 2% for 2019, and the main stock index, the Kospi, is barely up year to date. Europe is another international market eyed by experts heading into 2020. Stocks in the continent are on pace for their biggest annual gain since 2009, when they surged 28%. The Stoxx 600 index, which tracks a broad number of European stocks, is up 19.3% in 2019. Cameron Brandt, director of research at EPFR, said money flows into European assets are “certainly indicating that all the bad news in Europe has been priced in.” “Given that the ECB is back in full backstop mode, and that Europe has a lot of dry powder in terms of fiscal stimulus … it’s probably fair to say the greatest potential for upside next year may be in Europe,” Brandt said. Within Europe, one market that could see further upside in 2020 is Germany, said Nuveen’s Brian Nick. The German Dax has rallied more than 20% in 2019 and is headed for its biggest one-year gain since 2013. “If we get a stabilization in growth in 2020, the internationally oriented countries should do a bit better, especially if China looks a little more solid as it seems to,” the firm’s chief investment strategist said. “Those two economies are more closely tied together than the U.S. is to either of those.”

Buy international for the new decade?


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, valuation, growth, bets, stocks, wall, global, international, equities, msci, index, street, economic, slump, europe, decadelong, 2020


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Managing China is NATO’s biggest challenge yet

China has emerged as the most formidable challenge that has ever faced NATO. That is true as well for the North American and European economies upon which NATO rests, which account for roughly half of global GDP. Most media focused on the theatrics of this week’s 70th anniversary summit of NATO’s now-29 members. The biggest news – though woefully underreported – was that NATO, history’s most enduring and successful alliance, for the first-time defined China as a strategic challenge. However, alt


China has emerged as the most formidable challenge that has ever faced NATO.
That is true as well for the North American and European economies upon which NATO rests, which account for roughly half of global GDP.
Most media focused on the theatrics of this week’s 70th anniversary summit of NATO’s now-29 members.
The biggest news – though woefully underreported – was that NATO, history’s most enduring and successful alliance, for the first-time defined China as a strategic challenge.
However, alt
Managing China is NATO’s biggest challenge yet Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: frederick kempe
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, challenge, biggest, european, huaweis, summit, weeks, nato, trump, chinas, managing, united, china, natos, leader


Managing China is NATO's biggest challenge yet

China has emerged as the most formidable challenge that has ever faced NATO. That is true as well for the North American and European economies upon which NATO rests, which account for roughly half of global GDP.

Most media focused on the theatrics of this week’s 70th anniversary summit of NATO’s now-29 members. The biggest news – though woefully underreported – was that NATO, history’s most enduring and successful alliance, for the first-time defined China as a strategic challenge.

That news was drowned out by French leader Emmanuel Macron, who came into town having declared NATO brain dead; by Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who responded that it instead was the French leader’s brain that was lifeless; by Canadian leader Justin Trudeau, who was caught mocking President Trump during allied cocktail hour; and by President Trump, who shrugged in response that the Canadian was two-faced.

As entertaining as all that was, more significant was that NATO allies have belatedly focused on the most significant challenge to world democracies and their market-driven economies in our new era of major power competition. However, although the closing NATO summit statement required unanimity, even more revealing is the ambiguity of its language, reflecting disagreement over whether Beijing is more of an economic opportunity than fundamental challenge.

“We recognize that China’s growing influence and international policies present both opportunities and challenges that we need to address together as an alliance,” it said.

That’s soft stuff considering that this authoritarian, state capitalist country has already become a global center of gravity – the world’s largest by population, ranking second only to the United States in military spending and, depending on what measure you like, is already or will soon be the largest economy on Earth.

The language was also muted compared to new outrage and legislative action in the United States and elsewhere regarding the reported repression of China’s Uighur Muslim minority, following weeks of Hong Kong protests and local elections supporting their cause, and in the face of continued concerns regarding Huawei’s 5G telecom dominance.

One also didn’t have to look far in the news this week to see new evidence of China’s growing partnerships with Russia, NATO’s primary focus for many years, ranging from a new 1,800 mile-long gas pipeline connecting both countries, to Huawei’s expanded relations with at least eight top Russian universities and research institutes.

Writing for Defense One, the Atlantic Council’s Barry Pavel and Ian Brzezinski have usefully called upon NATO to create a NATO-China Council that would collectively engage China on areas of concern. It would be a structural mechanism for dialogue with Russia to raise concerns, avoid misunderstandings and, where possible, foster cooperation.

The list of matters it would deal with is already a lengthy one, write the authors: Huawei’s targeting of European and North American digital infrastructure; increasing ownership of major European seaports critical to NATO; joint exercises with the Russian military, including in the Nordic-Baltic region; and cyber espionage and intellectual property theft.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: frederick kempe
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, challenge, biggest, european, huaweis, summit, weeks, nato, trump, chinas, managing, united, china, natos, leader


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Google Maps tracks everywhere you go. Here’s how to automatically delete what it stores

If you don’t configure Google Maps properly, it will automatically keep a detailed log of everywhere you go, whether you’re walking, driving or even flying anywhere in the world. It’s wildly detailed down to the minute, and can show where you were at any moment in time. You might want to look back and see where you went during a past trip, for example. Or you might want Google to know how long it typically takes to drive somewhere you go often. Here’s a sliver of the places I went during June, f


If you don’t configure Google Maps properly, it will automatically keep a detailed log of everywhere you go, whether you’re walking, driving or even flying anywhere in the world.
It’s wildly detailed down to the minute, and can show where you were at any moment in time.
You might want to look back and see where you went during a past trip, for example.
Or you might want Google to know how long it typically takes to drive somewhere you go often.
Here’s a sliver of the places I went during June, f
Google Maps tracks everywhere you go. Here’s how to automatically delete what it stores Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: todd haselton
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, maps, went, detailed, heres, typically, delete, google, example, walking, youre, world, automatically, wildly, stores, tracks


Google Maps tracks everywhere you go. Here's how to automatically delete what it stores

If you don’t configure Google Maps properly, it will automatically keep a detailed log of everywhere you go, whether you’re walking, driving or even flying anywhere in the world. It’s wildly detailed down to the minute, and can show where you were at any moment in time. I’ll show you how to automatically delete it.

That information can be helpful for you. You might want to look back and see where you went during a past trip, for example. Or you might want Google to know how long it typically takes to drive somewhere you go often. Still, it’s kind of creepy to have years and years of that data stored on Google’s servers.

Here’s a sliver of the places I went during June, for example:


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: todd haselton
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, maps, went, detailed, heres, typically, delete, google, example, walking, youre, world, automatically, wildly, stores, tracks


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Trump thanks Iran for releasing American grad student: ‘We can make deal’

Wang was released in Switzerland in exchange for Iranian citizen Massoud Soleimani, who was being held in an Atlanta jail over charges of violating American trade sanctions against Iran. Wang was among at least four other Americans being held in Iran. The swap comes amid growing tensions between Iran and the U.S. and massive protests in Iran. Trump has placed significant economic sanctions on Iran and withdrew from the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal. The White House confirmed the trade on Saturday


Wang was released in Switzerland in exchange for Iranian citizen Massoud Soleimani, who was being held in an Atlanta jail over charges of violating American trade sanctions against Iran.
Wang was among at least four other Americans being held in Iran.
The swap comes amid growing tensions between Iran and the U.S. and massive protests in Iran.
Trump has placed significant economic sanctions on Iran and withdrew from the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal.
The White House confirmed the trade on Saturday
Trump thanks Iran for releasing American grad student: ‘We can make deal’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: emma newburger
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, administration, trade, releasing, student, trump, deal, white, thanks, held, wang, grad, twitter, american, iran


Trump thanks Iran for releasing American grad student: 'We can make deal'

U.S. President Donald Trump hosts a roundtable discussion with small business owners and members of his administration in the Roosevelt Room at the White House December 06, 2019 in Washington, DC.

President Donald Trump on Saturday thanked Iran for releasing an American graduate student who had been imprisoned in Tehran for over three years on charges of espionage in exchange for a prisoner held in the U.S.

“Taken during the Obama Administration (despite $150 Billion gift), returned during the Trump Administration,” the president wrote on Twitter. “Thank you to Iran on a very fair negotiation. See, we can make a deal together!”

Xiyue Wang, 38, was a Princeton University doctoral student doing research in Iran when he was arrested there in August 2016 and sentenced to 10 years in prison over suspicion of being a spy.

U.S. officials have repeatedly denied that Wang, who was held in Evin Prison on two counts of espionage, was a spy.

Wang was released in Switzerland in exchange for Iranian citizen Massoud Soleimani, who was being held in an Atlanta jail over charges of violating American trade sanctions against Iran. Soleimani was expected to be released as early as January under a plea agreement.

Wang was among at least four other Americans being held in Iran.

The swap comes amid growing tensions between Iran and the U.S. and massive protests in Iran. Trump has placed significant economic sanctions on Iran and withdrew from the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal.

The protests erupted across Iran in November in response to a 50% increase in gas prices. U.S. officials believe the demonstrations have left as many as 1,000 people dead and 7,000 imprisoned, drawing widespread global criticism.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Saturday that “The United States will not rest until we bring every American detained in Iran and around the world back home to their loved ones.”

The White House confirmed the trade on Saturday with a statement from Trump, and Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, also confirmed the deal on twitter.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: emma newburger
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, administration, trade, releasing, student, trump, deal, white, thanks, held, wang, grad, twitter, american, iran


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It’s possible the US economy is not ‘late cycle’ but rather just recharging

The idea that we are late in the economic and financial-market cycle is one that even most Wall Street bulls won’t dispute. Huge parts of the economy have run out of sync, at separate speeds. What about the yield curve? Whatever the answers, Jason Hunter, technical strategist at JP Morgan, notes that stocks have tended to have some of their strongest runs after an inversion, late in a cycle. “The longer-term bull cycles persisted for nearly two years after the initial [Treasury] curve inversion


The idea that we are late in the economic and financial-market cycle is one that even most Wall Street bulls won’t dispute.
Huge parts of the economy have run out of sync, at separate speeds.
What about the yield curve?
Whatever the answers, Jason Hunter, technical strategist at JP Morgan, notes that stocks have tended to have some of their strongest runs after an inversion, late in a cycle.
“The longer-term bull cycles persisted for nearly two years after the initial [Treasury] curve inversion
It’s possible the US economy is not ‘late cycle’ but rather just recharging Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: michael santoli
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, curve, economy, late, fed, cycles, cycle, past, levels, recharging, inversion, possible, yield, treasury


It's possible the US economy is not 'late cycle' but rather just recharging

(This story is part of the Weekend Brief edition of the Evening Brief newsletter. To sign up for CNBC’s Evening Brief, click here.) The idea that we are late in the economic and financial-market cycle is one that even most Wall Street bulls won’t dispute. After all, when the economic expansion surpasses a decade to become the longest ever and the S&P 500 has delivered a compounded return of nearly 18% a year since March 2009, how can the cycle not be considered pretty mature? Yet it’s not quite that simple. Huge parts of the economy have run out of sync, at separate speeds. Some indicators have a decidedly “good as it gets” look, others retain a mid-cycle profile — and a few even resemble early parts of a recovery than the end. Friday’s unexpectedly strong November job gain above 200,000 reflects this debate, suggesting we are not at “full employment” even this deep into an expansion. And the market itself has stalled and retrenched several times along the way, keeping risk appetites tethered and purging or preventing excesses. In the “late-cycle” category we find several broad, trending data readings: Unemployment rate and jobless claims at a 50-year low; consumer confidence hit a cycle peak and has flattened out; and the broad index of leading economic indicators has slipped from very high levels. Auto sales peaked a few years ago. Corporate debt levels are near extremes, profit margins have retreated from historic highs and equity valuations are certainly full and in line with the latter phases of prior bull markets. But corporate-credit conditions are sturdy, and households have simply not loaded up on debt this cycle, in a long period of enforced and then voluntary sobriety after the massive credit boom and bust that culminated in 2008. This leaves consumers in good shape. And the housing market, a drag on growth for years after the crash, has now perked up and is feeding off supply-demand dynamics that are more typical of an early-cycle environment.

What about the yield curve?

The summertime inversion of the Treasury yield curve — in which longer-term bond yields slip below short-term rates after the Federal Reserve has been tightening policy for a while — crystallized the debate on the cycle’s effective age. Such an inversion, in the past, has started the countdown to a recession — but sometimes with a lag as long as two years. This indicator has been translated into a recession-probability gauge one year ahead by the New York Fed. Source: New York Fed It has turned lower since late summer as the yield curve has returned to its “normal” shape, but only in the 1960s has it ever climbed above 30% and fallen back to tame levels well ahead of any recession. Have there even been enough cycles for this pattern to qualify as a statistically reliable “rule?” Do the extremely low absolute level of rates now (similar to the ’60s) change the interpretation? Was the inversion too shallow and short-lived to serve as a proper signal? Whatever the answers, Jason Hunter, technical strategist at JP Morgan, notes that stocks have tended to have some of their strongest runs after an inversion, late in a cycle. “The longer-term bull cycles persisted for nearly two years after the initial [Treasury] curve inversion during the past three business cycles, with the majority of the late-cycle rally acceleration phases unfolding within the year after curve inversion.” The S&P on average has gained more than 20% over less than two years in the past four episodes before peaking. One way to view the summer tumult is as the third severe “growth scare” of this expansion, following those of 2011-12 and 2015-16. Both brought with them nasty 15-20% equity downturns, new lows in Treasury yields and forced central banks to become more accommodative. The Fed has referred to its shift from rate-hiking last year to three cuts this year as a “mid-cycle adjustment,” which would leave it on hold for now and summons happy memories of prior such Fed-enabled “soft landings.”

‘Still upside’ for stocks


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: michael santoli
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, curve, economy, late, fed, cycles, cycle, past, levels, recharging, inversion, possible, yield, treasury


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Here are some of the best analyst calls of the week on Wall Street including PayPal, WWE

Here are some of the best analyst calls on Wall Street this week:MKM – World Wrestling Entertainment, buy ratingMKM reiterated its buy rating on World Wrestling Entertainment this week. The analyst said the company has the “best multi-year growth potential” within the firm’s media and entertainment universe. “A series of meetings we hosted last week with WWE management reinforced our view the company has the best multi-year growth potential within our Media & Entertainment universe. “We also exp


Here are some of the best analyst calls on Wall Street this week:MKM – World Wrestling Entertainment, buy ratingMKM reiterated its buy rating on World Wrestling Entertainment this week.
The analyst said the company has the “best multi-year growth potential” within the firm’s media and entertainment universe.
“A series of meetings we hosted last week with WWE management reinforced our view the company has the best multi-year growth potential within our Media & Entertainment universe.
“We also exp
Here are some of the best analyst calls of the week on Wall Street including PayPal, WWE Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: michael bloom
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, company, including, paypal, sales, best, entertainment, mondelez, growth, wall, week, online, wwe, street, analyst, amazon, calls


Here are some of the best analyst calls of the week on Wall Street including PayPal, WWE

World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. Chairman Vince McMahon (L) and wrestler Triple H appear in the ring during the WWE Monday Night Raw show at the Thomas & Mack Center August 24, 2009 Ethan Miller | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

(This story is part of the Weekend Brief edition of the Evening Brief newsletter. To sign up for CNBC’s Evening Brief, .) Here are some of the best analyst calls on Wall Street this week:

MKM – World Wrestling Entertainment, buy rating

MKM reiterated its buy rating on World Wrestling Entertainment this week. The analyst said the company has the “best multi-year growth potential” within the firm’s media and entertainment universe. The company is also armed with a brand new television contract and international deals, which the firm expects to lead to accelerated subscriber growth. “A series of meetings we hosted last week with WWE management reinforced our view the company has the best multi-year growth potential within our Media & Entertainment universe. WWE is at a financial inflection point with its new, five-year domestic TV rights contract for Raw and Smackdown having commenced this quarter and its largest international deals beginning in 1Q20. Furthermore, the WWE Network is repositioned for a reacceleration in subscriber growth as a result of multiple new initiatives planned over the coming year. … 2020-2024 has multiple catalysts with sizable potential.”

Cowen – AstraZeneca, outperform & top pick for 2020

Cowen named AstraZeneca a top pick for 2020 this week and said the multinational pharmaceutical company has all the “attributes” need to be a “top” performer next year. In addition, the analyst says the company has “low relative exposure” to the U.S. and is “less vulnerable” to election rhetoric. The firm also said the company has “opportunity for upside” and many “promising” new products in the pipeline. “AZN product momentum and high relative growth are not unrecognized. However, drug stocks with these characteristics can outperform for extended periods as management executes, and there is opportunity for upside as forecasts are below AZN guidance/ambitions. Low relative exposure to U.S. makes AZN less vulnerable to election rhetoric. These attributes should drive AZN to top performance in 2020.”

Craig-Hallum- PayPal, buy rating

PayPal is aiding retailers that are making the necessary technology investment to help better compete against Amazon, according to Craig-Hallum. While the analyst says Amazon is still the dominant online retailer he also said that the e-commerce giant doesn’t have the “lock” on online sales that is often believed. The analyst also points out that according to reports, Walmart and Target are growing faster in eCommerce this year than Amazon. Craig-Hallum said PayPal can take advantage of the fact that non-Amazon retailers’ accept the company’s payment while Amazon doesn’t. “We also expect PayPal to benefit from non-Amazon retailers’ significant investment in online sales and digitally originated sales capabilities that more effectively compete against Amazon than in years past. This year we have seen WMT and TGT both growing their e-Commerce sales growing significantly faster than Amazon’s 1st party sales. A number of sources have shown online social media mentions putting BBY, WMT and TGT right in the mix with AMZN and retail experts noting they are well positioned. We believe that not all investors fully appreciate that increased disclosures by Amazon this year caused online sales market share estimates to be revised to 38% from 47% by eMarketer. While still the dominant online retailer, Amazon does not have the lock on online sales that is often perceived.”

Bernstein – Mondelez, outperform rating

Bernstein laid out it’s “Blue-Sky” scenario for Mondelez in a note to clients this week. The firm called the multinational food and beverage holding company a “solid standalone” investment and said it sees a $78 stock in three years. Bernstein said the company has a large exposure to the “faster-growing” snacking category and also believes a merger with Pepsi’s snack business would be a winning combination. “Mondelez represents a solid standalone investment. With ~80% exposure to the faster-growing snacking category and close to 40% of sales in emerging markets, Mondelez has the potential to grow the top-line at ~4% based on its category and geographic exposures. Meanwhile, adding deal-making to the equation could represent additional upside for Mondelez. Should Mondelez’s sales momentum taper off as it faces tougher comps in FY20, this could attract renewed interest from activist investors, who may push for a combination of Mondelez and Pepsi’s snack business to unlock additional value for shareholders.”

Canaccord Genuity – Penumbra, buy rating


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: michael bloom
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, company, including, paypal, sales, best, entertainment, mondelez, growth, wall, week, online, wwe, street, analyst, amazon, calls


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Automakers investing billions in partnerships as industry races toward autonomous and electric vehicles

GMDETROIT – General Motors’ $2.3 billion joint venture with LG Chem for production of battery cells for electric vehicles is “more than a collaboration,” it’s a necessity in today’s rapidly changing automotive industry. “To invest in these electric vehicles and CASE (connected, autonomous, shared, electric vehicles) in general, you’re taking one years’ worth of investment out of every five out of the picture,” Wakefield said. AlixPartners reports the number of automaker partnerships increased 43


GMDETROIT – General Motors’ $2.3 billion joint venture with LG Chem for production of battery cells for electric vehicles is “more than a collaboration,” it’s a necessity in today’s rapidly changing automotive industry.
“To invest in these electric vehicles and CASE (connected, autonomous, shared, electric vehicles) in general, you’re taking one years’ worth of investment out of every five out of the picture,” Wakefield said.
AlixPartners reports the number of automaker partnerships increased 43
Automakers investing billions in partnerships as industry races toward autonomous and electric vehicles Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: michael wayland
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, electric, billions, automakers, joint, billion, partnerships, venture, ford, vehicles, autonomous, ceo, races, investing, industry


Automakers investing billions in partnerships as industry races toward autonomous and electric vehicles

GM CEO and Chairman Mary Barra and LG Chem Vice Chairman and CEO Hak-Cheol Shin at the automaker’s battery lab in Warren, Mich., where the companies announced a new $2.6-billion joint venture on Dec. 5, 2019. GM

DETROIT – General Motors’ $2.3 billion joint venture with LG Chem for production of battery cells for electric vehicles is “more than a collaboration,” it’s a necessity in today’s rapidly changing automotive industry. The announced joint venture between America’s largest automaker and the South Korean chemical giant adds to a growing list of tie-ups for the auto industry as companies attempt to share in the monumental costs of electric and autonomous vehicles. Automakers such as GM are annually spending billions on the emerging technologies in an attempt to gain an upper hand on the potential multitrillion-dollar businesses, which many believe will transform transportation as we know it and assist in lowering global carbon emissions. But, for the moment, remain unprofitable. Mark Wakefield, global co-leader of the automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners and a managing director at the firm, said the “tricky balance” of investing in new technologies while keeping traditional business operations profitable is one of the main drivers for the uptick in auto industry partnerships. “All these things take this tremendous investment and aren’t going to pay off with a top-end profit next year or the year after or the year after that,” he told CNBC on Friday. “But they are somewhat existential if you want to be in the game 10 years from now. That’s where partnerships come into play.” A report by AlixPartners earlier this year estimated the industry’s annual spending on autonomous driving and electric vehicles will reach a cumulative $85 billion by 2025 and $225 billion by 2023, respectively.

The capital being spent on electric vehicles alone is roughly equal to the massive amount that all automakers globally combined spend on capital expenditures and research and development in a year, according to the firm. “To invest in these electric vehicles and CASE (connected, autonomous, shared, electric vehicles) in general, you’re taking one years’ worth of investment out of every five out of the picture,” Wakefield said. “That’s an extraordinary amount to take out and keep the trains running on time of your vehicle programs and traditional business.”

Billions in tie-ups

Some of the most prominent collaborations this year have been between automakers and tech companies, however many have been automakers deciding to share costs with traditional competitors. The largest announcement thus far this year is the planned merger between Fiat Chrysler and French automaker PSA Group. It would create the fourth-largest automaker by sales in the world with a roughly $50 billion valuation. Fiat Chrysler CEO Mike Manley described it as a “potentially industry-changing combination,” while PSA CEO Carlos Tavares said the “convergence brings significant value to all the stakeholders and opens a bright future for the combined entity,” including autonomous and electric vehicles. Major non-merger deals included: Hyundai Motor and auto supplier Aptiv creating a $4 billion autonomous vehicle joint venture; Volkswagen agreeing to invest $2.6 billion in Ford Motor-backed autonomous vehicle startup Argo AI as part of a global alliance; Amazon, Ford and others investing hundreds of millions in startup EV manufacturer Rivian; and German automakers Daimler and BMW jointly investing more than $1 billion in mobility services.

Jim Hackett (r), CEO of Ford, and Herbert Diess, CEO of VW, at the Detroit auto show last January. Boris Roessler | picture alliance | Getty Images

“These companies, especially on the autonomous side, they’re finding it’s harder to develop this stuff than they thought it was going to be, so they’re teaming up to spread those costs and share the expertise that they have across a broader range of vehicles to try and get some scale,” said Sam Abuelsamid, principal research analyst at Navigant and an engineer. AlixPartners reports the number of automaker partnerships increased 43% from 2017 to 2018 to 543, led by a 122% increase in autonomous vehicles tie-ups to 115. The partnerships are separate from mergers and acquisitions, which AlixPartners said were “down a bit” last year from 2017. However, the firm reports the portion of closed deals last year related to connected, autonomous, shared, electric vehicles rose five percentage points to 55%, worth $21 billion, in 2018. Other high-profile deals this year included: Toyota Motor taking a 4.9% stake, valued at more than $900 million, in Suzuki; Ford creating a $275 million joint venture with Mumbai-based Mahindra & Mahindra; and Honda Motor and Hitachi announcing plans to combine car parts businesses to create a $17 billion components supplier. In September, Toyota announced plans to raise its stake in Subaru from 17% to more than 20%, expanding their partnership to invest more efficiently in new technologies.

Seeking profits

Executives from several automakers, including GM and Ford, have said their next-generation electric vehicles will be profitable — a challenge the industry has faced for nearly a decade. “For competitive reasons and also for regulatory reasons, everybody has to have EVs in their lineup. The challenge is selling them profitability,” Abuelsamid said. “That’s something everybody has struggled to do so far.” GM CEO Mary Barra on Thursday confirmed the joint venture with LG Chem will assist in the company’s plans for profitable electric vehicles, which are expected to begin rolling out in 2021. “The new facility will help us scale production and dramatically enhance EV profitability and affordability,” she told reporters when announcing the joint-venture with LG Chem. “Ours is a long-lead industry and having accelerated our product planning and production processes, we will develop a greater range of EV options that truly alter our product portfolio.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: michael wayland
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, electric, billions, automakers, joint, billion, partnerships, venture, ford, vehicles, autonomous, ceo, races, investing, industry


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