It’s possible the US economy is not ‘late cycle’ but rather just recharging

The idea that we are late in the economic and financial-market cycle is one that even most Wall Street bulls won’t dispute. Huge parts of the economy have run out of sync, at separate speeds. What about the yield curve? Whatever the answers, Jason Hunter, technical strategist at JP Morgan, notes that stocks have tended to have some of their strongest runs after an inversion, late in a cycle. “The longer-term bull cycles persisted for nearly two years after the initial [Treasury] curve inversion


The idea that we are late in the economic and financial-market cycle is one that even most Wall Street bulls won’t dispute.
Huge parts of the economy have run out of sync, at separate speeds.
What about the yield curve?
Whatever the answers, Jason Hunter, technical strategist at JP Morgan, notes that stocks have tended to have some of their strongest runs after an inversion, late in a cycle.
“The longer-term bull cycles persisted for nearly two years after the initial [Treasury] curve inversion
It’s possible the US economy is not ‘late cycle’ but rather just recharging Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: michael santoli
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, curve, economy, late, fed, cycles, cycle, past, levels, recharging, inversion, possible, yield, treasury


It's possible the US economy is not 'late cycle' but rather just recharging

(This story is part of the Weekend Brief edition of the Evening Brief newsletter. To sign up for CNBC’s Evening Brief, click here.) The idea that we are late in the economic and financial-market cycle is one that even most Wall Street bulls won’t dispute. After all, when the economic expansion surpasses a decade to become the longest ever and the S&P 500 has delivered a compounded return of nearly 18% a year since March 2009, how can the cycle not be considered pretty mature? Yet it’s not quite that simple. Huge parts of the economy have run out of sync, at separate speeds. Some indicators have a decidedly “good as it gets” look, others retain a mid-cycle profile — and a few even resemble early parts of a recovery than the end. Friday’s unexpectedly strong November job gain above 200,000 reflects this debate, suggesting we are not at “full employment” even this deep into an expansion. And the market itself has stalled and retrenched several times along the way, keeping risk appetites tethered and purging or preventing excesses. In the “late-cycle” category we find several broad, trending data readings: Unemployment rate and jobless claims at a 50-year low; consumer confidence hit a cycle peak and has flattened out; and the broad index of leading economic indicators has slipped from very high levels. Auto sales peaked a few years ago. Corporate debt levels are near extremes, profit margins have retreated from historic highs and equity valuations are certainly full and in line with the latter phases of prior bull markets. But corporate-credit conditions are sturdy, and households have simply not loaded up on debt this cycle, in a long period of enforced and then voluntary sobriety after the massive credit boom and bust that culminated in 2008. This leaves consumers in good shape. And the housing market, a drag on growth for years after the crash, has now perked up and is feeding off supply-demand dynamics that are more typical of an early-cycle environment.

What about the yield curve?

The summertime inversion of the Treasury yield curve — in which longer-term bond yields slip below short-term rates after the Federal Reserve has been tightening policy for a while — crystallized the debate on the cycle’s effective age. Such an inversion, in the past, has started the countdown to a recession — but sometimes with a lag as long as two years. This indicator has been translated into a recession-probability gauge one year ahead by the New York Fed. Source: New York Fed It has turned lower since late summer as the yield curve has returned to its “normal” shape, but only in the 1960s has it ever climbed above 30% and fallen back to tame levels well ahead of any recession. Have there even been enough cycles for this pattern to qualify as a statistically reliable “rule?” Do the extremely low absolute level of rates now (similar to the ’60s) change the interpretation? Was the inversion too shallow and short-lived to serve as a proper signal? Whatever the answers, Jason Hunter, technical strategist at JP Morgan, notes that stocks have tended to have some of their strongest runs after an inversion, late in a cycle. “The longer-term bull cycles persisted for nearly two years after the initial [Treasury] curve inversion during the past three business cycles, with the majority of the late-cycle rally acceleration phases unfolding within the year after curve inversion.” The S&P on average has gained more than 20% over less than two years in the past four episodes before peaking. One way to view the summer tumult is as the third severe “growth scare” of this expansion, following those of 2011-12 and 2015-16. Both brought with them nasty 15-20% equity downturns, new lows in Treasury yields and forced central banks to become more accommodative. The Fed has referred to its shift from rate-hiking last year to three cuts this year as a “mid-cycle adjustment,” which would leave it on hold for now and summons happy memories of prior such Fed-enabled “soft landings.”

‘Still upside’ for stocks


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: michael santoli
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, curve, economy, late, fed, cycles, cycle, past, levels, recharging, inversion, possible, yield, treasury


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NBA star Klay Thompson says his first paycheck was ‘more money than I could ever think of’—here’s what he bought

Klay Thompson remembers the number on his first NBA paycheck: $35,000. “I still have that to this day,” said Thompson, who was 21 when he was drafted to the NBA in 2011. Even today, after nearly a decade in the league and having collected three NBA Championships with the Warriors, “I’m pretty simple,” Thompson said. Today, Thompson spends his millions on experiences or things that add value to his and other people’s lives. Don’t miss: Celtics star Jayson Tatum saves 100% of his $7.8 million NBA


Klay Thompson remembers the number on his first NBA paycheck: $35,000.
“I still have that to this day,” said Thompson, who was 21 when he was drafted to the NBA in 2011.
Even today, after nearly a decade in the league and having collected three NBA Championships with the Warriors, “I’m pretty simple,” Thompson said.
Today, Thompson spends his millions on experiences or things that add value to his and other people’s lives.
Don’t miss: Celtics star Jayson Tatum saves 100% of his $7.8 million NBA
NBA star Klay Thompson says his first paycheck was ‘more money than I could ever think of’—here’s what he bought Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: kathleen elkins
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, ofheres, klay, bought, thompson, million, paycheck, going, warriors, big, star, today, told, money, think, nba


NBA star Klay Thompson says his first paycheck was 'more money than I could ever think of'—here's what he bought

Klay Thompson remembers the number on his first NBA paycheck: $35,000. “It was incredible,” he told Maverick Carter on an episode of Uninterrupted’s “Kneading Dough.”

It’s a fraction of what the basketball star earns today — he signed a five year, $190 million contract with the Golden State Warriors in 2019 — but at the time, it was “more money than I could ever think of,” he recalled.

The first thing he bought was a pool table. “I still have that to this day,” said Thompson, who was 21 when he was drafted to the NBA in 2011. The Warriors selected him No. 11 overall and he earned a little over $2 million his first season.

His lifestyle didn’t change much after transitioning from playing in college, where he got a small stipend in 2011 during his junior year from Washington State University, to the big leagues. “It’s not like that money made me happier,” he told Carter. “It was great to see that check, but I lived such a great life at the time on my $1,100-a-month stipend. That went so far. I could get as much Taco Del Mar as I wanted. I could go to Target and have a field day.”

Even today, after nearly a decade in the league and having collected three NBA Championships with the Warriors, “I’m pretty simple,” Thompson said. “My tastes aren’t that extravagant.”

He’s learned to be intentional about what he buys. An early money mistake he made was filling his closet with unnecessary clothes to keep up with the NBA styles: “I would only wear about 5% of the closet.”

Thompson isn’t the only NBA player to admit to going all-out on wardrobe items. His teammate, Andre Iguodala, headed straight to Niketown after receiving his first big check and bought “a whole bunch of pairs of Jordans,” he told Wealthsimple. “I spent like two or three grand and it felt like I spent a million dollars. I didn’t know how to spend money.”

Today, Thompson spends his millions on experiences or things that add value to his and other people’s lives. His latest splurge was a boat, he told Cater: “I know I’m going to get use out of it because the water brings me peace.” Plus, “with my foundation, I’m going to have the ability to take kids out to go fishing, which is really cool to me,” added Thompson, who launched an organization to enrich the lives of kids in the U.S. and the Bahamas through fitness and education.

Ultimately, “Wealth is a mindset,” he said. “If you have relationships and experiences around you, those are priceless. That’s better than any car or big house you can get.”

Don’t miss: Celtics star Jayson Tatum saves 100% of his $7.8 million NBA salary

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: kathleen elkins
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, ofheres, klay, bought, thompson, million, paycheck, going, warriors, big, star, today, told, money, think, nba


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ICE ETF Hub a ‘highway’ for modernizing ETFs: BlackRock

BlackRock and NYSE owner ICE are looking to improve efficiency in the ETF market with their new ETF Hub as the industry continues to boom. The hub’s key features, according to the ICE ETF Hub website, include processes to streamline ETF order entries, consolidate issuer data and provide the analytic tools needed while also facilitating fixed income ETF trading. The latter has been a focus of BlackRock’s Samara Cohen, co-head of iShares Markets and Investments at Blackrock, given the surge in bon


BlackRock and NYSE owner ICE are looking to improve efficiency in the ETF market with their new ETF Hub as the industry continues to boom.
The hub’s key features, according to the ICE ETF Hub website, include processes to streamline ETF order entries, consolidate issuer data and provide the analytic tools needed while also facilitating fixed income ETF trading.
The latter has been a focus of BlackRock’s Samara Cohen, co-head of iShares Markets and Investments at Blackrock, given the surge in bon
ICE ETF Hub a ‘highway’ for modernizing ETFs: BlackRock Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: annie pei, lizzy gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, etfs, bond, market, investors, ice, modernizing, really, trade, trading, cohen, highway, etf, hub, blackrock


ICE ETF Hub a 'highway' for modernizing ETFs: BlackRock

It’s been a big year for ETFs and investment giant BlackRock is aiming to make next year even bigger for the industry.

BlackRock and NYSE owner ICE are looking to improve efficiency in the ETF market with their new ETF Hub as the industry continues to boom. The hub’s key features, according to the ICE ETF Hub website, include processes to streamline ETF order entries, consolidate issuer data and provide the analytic tools needed while also facilitating fixed income ETF trading.

The latter has been a focus of BlackRock’s Samara Cohen, co-head of iShares Markets and Investments at Blackrock, given the surge in bond ETF trading. In fact, over half of net ETF inflows have gone to bond ETFs in 2019.

“What’s happening is, as lots of asset managers seek to meet the demand of investors to participate in bond ETFs, they’re creating a bunch of, you can think of it as local access roads to create and redeem bond ETFs,” she said Tuesday on CNBC’s “ETF Edge.”

“What the Hub is doing — and it’s really a market utility that has never existed before — is creating a highway to facilitate the manufacturing process for bond ETFs,” she added.

This is particularly relevant given that bond ETF trading, unlike for many ETF groups, has yet to be electronified, another goal Cohen has for the Hub.

“The demand for bond ETFs has really forced the electronification of the bond market because you can’t trade a big portfolio, and some of these ETFs have thousands of bonds,” she explained. “You can’t trade that by voice or over the phone, so you need electronic systems and that has facilitated a huge change in the bond market, broadly.”

Aside from the bond market, Cohen also points to the rising interest in ESG, short for Environmental, Social and Governance ETFs as another group that could drive the ETF industry.

“There’s been a real desire by investors in the U.S., [and that interest] has been there longer in Europe, to combine their investing with their beliefs, and investors are becoming educated in what that means for them,” she said.

Net inflows into U.S.-based ETFs have hit $271 billion this year, making 2019 the second-biggest year on record for the ETF market, according to ETF.com.

Disclaimer


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: annie pei, lizzy gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, etfs, bond, market, investors, ice, modernizing, really, trade, trading, cohen, highway, etf, hub, blackrock


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This simple visual tool can help you set financial goals you’ll actually achieve in 2020

Kumiko Love, founder of financial advice website The Budget Mom, knows this well. Within eight months of getting serious about eliminating her debt, Love, who’s a single mom to a 6-year-old son, paid off $77,281. Source: The Budget Mom “Having a reminder, something you can see every day, helps me stay motivated,” Love tells CNBC Make It. Any time you experience a major life change, your financial goals should be reevaluated. “Any time you experience a major life change, your financial goals shou


Kumiko Love, founder of financial advice website The Budget Mom, knows this well.
Within eight months of getting serious about eliminating her debt, Love, who’s a single mom to a 6-year-old son, paid off $77,281.
Source: The Budget Mom “Having a reminder, something you can see every day, helps me stay motivated,” Love tells CNBC Make It.
Any time you experience a major life change, your financial goals should be reevaluated.
“Any time you experience a major life change, your financial goals shou
This simple visual tool can help you set financial goals you’ll actually achieve in 2020 Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: anna hecht
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, simple, set, visual, tool, debt, financial, budget, writing, youll, love, youve, achieve, mom, goal, actually, help, goals, steps


This simple visual tool can help you set financial goals you'll actually achieve in 2020

When it comes to reaching your financial goals, there’s real merit to writing everything down, from your total debt to your budgeting plan to your spending patterns. Kumiko Love, founder of financial advice website The Budget Mom, knows this well. Within eight months of getting serious about eliminating her debt, Love, who’s a single mom to a 6-year-old son, paid off $77,281. She declared herself completely debt-free in January 2019. Through her blog turned full-time business, Love publicly documented her own debt journey using color-coded charts, worksheets and calendars to track and display her progress. Now, she employs these same visual tools to teach her followers money tips and tricks.

The Budget Mom

One visual tool Love recommends is her three-part “Budget Blueprint Goal Worksheet,” which allows you to record and organize your financial aspirations, such as building up an emergency savings, paying off student loans or making a big purchase, for the upcoming year, the next five years and 10 to 15 years down the line. Source: The Budget Mom “Having a reminder, something you can see every day, helps me stay motivated,” Love tells CNBC Make It. “Writing it down and creating action steps on how to achieve them turns your wants into reality. All of a sudden, you know exactly where to spend your money and why.” Follow these three steps to set actionable — and achievable — money goals for the new year.

1. Think about what’s important to you

Prior to writing anything down, Love says to first think about what is important to you. Do you want to buy a new car or house? Do you want to pay off all of your credit card debt? Maybe you simply want to take a vacation next year. Whatever it is, think about the aspirations you have, no matter how big or small, which will require financial planning in order to accomplish.

Any time you experience a major life change, your financial goals should be reevaluated. Kumiko Love Founder of The Budget Mom

2. Create step-by-step strategies

Next, get your goals down on paper. You can tackle your short-term or long-term goals in any order, but make sure you’re detailed when writing down what you want and how you’ll make it happen. “A goal isn’t a reality until you can write down action steps on how you are going to achieve it. Until then, they are just intentions,” Love said. “For each goal, I want you to write down specific actions steps.” If she were tackling the short-term goal of paying off debt, Love would write something along the lines of: “Pay off debt by tackling my student loans first. I will put $500 monthly towards my student loans for the next 24 months.” As you’re working, ask yourself these three questions: Are my goals specific? Are they measurable? Are they achievable?

3. Reflect on what you’ve written

Once you’ve filled out all three parts of the worksheet, reflect on what you’ve written. Taking a moment to read them over once more allows you more time to make sure you’re satisfied with your goals and to let them sink in. And to motivate yourself to follow through, hang it somewhere around the house where you can see and revisit your goals as regularly as possible. Remember, this worksheet isn’t meant to be set aside once you’ve completed it. You should revisit this sheet periodically, Love said. “Any time you experience a major life change, your financial goals should be reevaluated.”

The new year is the perfect time to start making solid financial solutions that can lead to lasting change in your life. Kumiko Love Founder of The Budget Mom


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: anna hecht
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, simple, set, visual, tool, debt, financial, budget, writing, youll, love, youve, achieve, mom, goal, actually, help, goals, steps


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Saudi student opens fire at Florida Naval base, killing 3

The shooter was a member of the Saudi military who was in aviation training at the base, Florida Gov. Earlier Friday, two U.S. officials identified the student as a second lieutenant in the Saudi Air Force, and said authorities were investigating whether the attack was terrorism-related. One of the Navy’s most historic and storied bases, Naval Air Station Pensacola sprawls along the waterfront southwest of the city’s downtown and dominates the economy of the surrounding area. The base is also ho


The shooter was a member of the Saudi military who was in aviation training at the base, Florida Gov.
Earlier Friday, two U.S. officials identified the student as a second lieutenant in the Saudi Air Force, and said authorities were investigating whether the attack was terrorism-related.
One of the Navy’s most historic and storied bases, Naval Air Station Pensacola sprawls along the waterfront southwest of the city’s downtown and dominates the economy of the surrounding area.
The base is also ho
Saudi student opens fire at Florida Naval base, killing 3 Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, killing, naval, opens, base, student, air, shooting, saudi, florida, military, shooter, investigating, fbi, aviation


Saudi student opens fire at Florida Naval base, killing 3

An aviation student from Saudi Arabia opened fire in a classroom at the Naval Air Station Pensacola on Friday morning, killing three people in an attack the Saudi government quickly condemned and that U.S. officials were investigating for possible links to terrorism.

The assault, which ended when a sheriff’s deputy killed the attacker, was the second fatal shooting at a U.S. Navy base this week and prompted a massive law enforcement response and base lockdown.

Twelve people were hurt in the attack, including the two sheriff’s deputies who were the first to respond, Escambia County Sheriff David Morgan said. One of the deputies was shot in the arm and the other in the knee, and both were expected to recover, he said.

The shooter was a member of the Saudi military who was in aviation training at the base, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a news conference. DeSantis spokesman Helen Ferre later said the governor learned about the shooter’s identity from briefings with FBI and military officials.

A U.S. official who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity identified the shooter as Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani. The official wasn’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly. The official also said the FBI is examining social media posts and investigating whether he acted alone or was connected to any broader group.

During a news conference Friday night, the FBI declined to release the shooter’s identity and wouldn’t comment on his possible motivations.

“There are many reports circulating, but the FBI deals only in facts,” said Rachel L. Rojas, the FBI’s special agent in charge of the Jacksonville Field Office. “This is still very much an active and ongoing investigation.”

Earlier Friday, two U.S. officials identified the student as a second lieutenant in the Saudi Air Force, and said authorities were investigating whether the attack was terrorism-related. They spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose information that had not yet been made public.

President Donald Trump declined to say whether the shooting was terrorism-related. Trump tweeted his condolences to the families of the victims and noted that he had received a phone call from Saudi King Salman.

He said the king told him that “the Saudi people are greatly angered by the barbaric actions of the shooter, and that this person in no way shape or form represents the feelings of the Saudi people who love the American people.”

The Saudi government offered condolences to the victims and their families and said it would provide “full support” to U.S. authorities investigating the shooting.

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirms that the perpetrator of this horrific attack does not represent the Saudi people whatsoever,” the government said in a statement. “The American people are held in the highest regard by the Saudi people.”

Vice Minister of Defense Khalid bin Salman noted on Twitter that he and many Saudi military personnel have trained on U.S. military bases and gone on to fight `’against terrorism and other threats” alongside American forces. “Today’s tragic event is strongly condemned by everyone in Saudi Arabia,” he said.

DeSantis said Saudi Arabia needed to be held to account for the attack.

“Obviously, the government … needs to make things better for these victims,” he said. “I think they’re going to owe a debt here, given that this was one of their individuals.”

A national security expert from the Heritage Foundation warned against making an immediate link to terrorism.

“If there is some connection to terrorism, well, then, that’s that,” Charles “Cully” Stimson said. “But let’s not assume that because he was a Saudi national in their air force and he murdered our people, that he is a terrorist.”

Stimson said it was also possible that the shooter was “a disgruntled evil individual who was mad because he wasn’t going to get his pilot wings, or he wasn’t getting the qualification ratings that he wanted, or he had a beef with somebody, or there was a girlfriend involved who slighted him.”

Florida U.S. Sen. Rick Scott issued a scathing statement calling the shooting an act of terrorism “whether this individual was motivated by radical Islam or was simply mentally unstable.”

Scott added that it was “clear that we need to take steps to ensure that any and all foreign nationals are scrutinized and vetted extensively before being embedded with our American men and women in uniform.”

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said in a statement Friday that he was “considering several steps to ensure the security of our military installations and the safety of our service members and their families.” He did not elaborate.

The U.S. has long had a robust training program for Saudis, providing assistance in the U.S. and in the kingdom. The shooting, however, shined a spotlight on the two countries’ sometimes rocky relationship.

The kingdom is still trying to recover from the killing last year of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. Saudi intelligence officials and a forensic doctor killed and dismembered Khashoggi on Oct. 2, 2018, just as his fiancee waited outside the diplomatic mission.

One of the Navy’s most historic and storied bases, Naval Air Station Pensacola sprawls along the waterfront southwest of the city’s downtown and dominates the economy of the surrounding area.

Part of the base resembles a college campus, with buildings where 60,000 members of the Navy, Marines, Air Force and Coast Guard train each year in multiple fields of aviation. A couple hundred students from countries outside the U.S. are also enrolled in training, said Base commander Capt. Tim Kinsella.

The base is also home to the Blue Angels flight demonstration team, and includes the National Naval Aviation Museum, a popular regional tourist attraction.

Lucy Samford, 31, said her husband, a Navy reservist and civilian worker on the base, was about 500 yards (0.46 kilometers) from where the shooting happened. She said she got a call from him a little after 7 a.m. and “one of the first things out of his mouth was, ‘I love you. Tell the kids I love them. I just want you to know there’s an active shooter on base.'”

Her husband, whom she declined to identify, later told her he was OK.

All of the shooting took place in one classroom and the shooter used a handgun, authorities said. Weapons are not allowed on the base, which Kinsella said would remain closed until further notice.

The shooting is the second at a U.S. naval base this week. A sailor whose submarine was docked at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, opened fire on three civilian employees Wednesday, killing two before taking his own life.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, killing, naval, opens, base, student, air, shooting, saudi, florida, military, shooter, investigating, fbi, aviation


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Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

Several investors and strategists are betting on international stocks outperforming the U.S. in the new year, something that has only happened twice since 2010. “A reacceleration in global growth, a weaker US dollar, and favorable valuations should all support non-US stocks next year.” Callum Thomas, head of research at Topdown Charts, notes there is a “50% valuation gap” between U.S. and international stocks. These moves could spur a resurgence in global economic growth, which would “disproport


Several investors and strategists are betting on international stocks outperforming the U.S. in the new year, something that has only happened twice since 2010.
“A reacceleration in global growth, a weaker US dollar, and favorable valuations should all support non-US stocks next year.”
Callum Thomas, head of research at Topdown Charts, notes there is a “50% valuation gap” between U.S. and international stocks.
These moves could spur a resurgence in global economic growth, which would “disproport
Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, valuation, growth, bets, stocks, wall, global, international, equities, msci, index, street, economic, slump, europe, decadelong, 2020


Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying numbers of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the world’s major markets in Tokyo. Kazuhiro Nogi | AFP | Getty Images

(This story is part of the Weekend Brief edition of the Evening Brief newsletter. To sign up for CNBC’s Evening Brief, click here.) U.S. equities have been the best place to invest during the past 10 years, but that dominance could shift in 2020. Several investors and strategists are betting on international stocks outperforming the U.S. in the new year, something that has only happened twice since 2010. U.S. stocks have blown their international counterparts out of the water in that time. The S&P 500 is up more than 180% and the MSCI ACWI ex U.S. exchange-traded fund (ACWX) has gained just 18% since 2010. Emerging markets have fared even worse this decade against the S&P 500. The iShares MSCI Emerging Market Index is up just 4% since 2010. However, market experts think international stocks are poised for a comeback in 2020 versus the U.S. due to attractive valuations and a potential trough in global economic growth as world central banks take up more stimulative measures. “Having underperformed for more than ten years, non-US stocks are set to gain the upper hand over their US peers,” Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, said in a note. “A reacceleration in global growth, a weaker US dollar, and favorable valuations should all support non-US stocks next year.”

Valuation favors international

The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio, a widely used valuation metric on Wall Street, currently sits above 20. That’s the average’s richest valuation since August 2018. That high valuation follows the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs despite a year-over-year earnings decline. International stocks, however, are trading at a much lower valuation. Through Friday’s close, the ACWI fund’s price-to-earnings ratio rested around 14.7. Callum Thomas, head of research at Topdown Charts, notes there is a “50% valuation gap” between U.S. and international stocks. “Yes global ex-US has its problems, but are they 50% discount problems? At a certain point if the valuation gap is wide enough it kind of starts to speak for itself,” he said in a note. This wide valuation gap comes as global economic growth has slowed down while the U.S. economy keeps humming. Last week, the Commerce Department said U.S. GDP expanded by 2.1% in the third quarter. Economies around the world, meanwhile, have been stuck in the mud as manufacturing activity falls and trade conditions tighten. In Europe, manufacturing activity hit a seven-year low in October. It rebounded slightly in November but remained in contraction territory, data from IHS Markit showed. On the trade front, the U.S.-China conflict continues as both sides try to sign a so-called phase one deal. President Donald Trump also said Monday the U.S. will restore tariffs on metal imports from Brazil and Argentina. These factors, however, have led global central banks to ease monetary policy. The European Central Bank launched a new bond-buying program earlier this year. The People’s Bank of China lowered its short-term funding rate for the first time since 2015 last month, and the Bank of Japan has kept monetary policy easy throughout 2019.

Global economic rebound?

The trade tensions between China and the U.S. have eased slightly in recent months as both sides show they are willing to reach some sort of deal. These moves could spur a resurgence in global economic growth, which would “disproportionately benefit” international stocks relative to the U.S., BCA’s Berezin said. “The sector composition of international stocks is more skewed towards cyclicals than defensives compared to US stocks,” Berezin said. “As a result, non-US stocks generally outperform their US peers when global growth accelerates.” To be sure, global stocks may be pricing in these scenarios already. Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategy at Morgan Stanley, said the MSCI All-Country World Index — which measures the performance of global stocks including the U.S. — has already produced returns that are “meaningfully higher” since hitting its December 2018 lows. “That is consistent with a bottoming in global economic growth, meaning that markets are sending a signal about the turn in growth and pricing it in many cases,” Wilson said.

What to buy overseas

Wilson recommends investors buy into Japanese and Korean stocks in 2020. He also has an underweight rating on U.S. stocks heading into next year. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) is up more than 18% this year, on pace for its biggest annual gain since 2017. The ETF rose 22.7% that year. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is also up 16.4% for 2019. Korean stocks, however, have not fared nearly as well this year. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) is down more than 2% for 2019, and the main stock index, the Kospi, is barely up year to date. Europe is another international market eyed by experts heading into 2020. Stocks in the continent are on pace for their biggest annual gain since 2009, when they surged 28%. The Stoxx 600 index, which tracks a broad number of European stocks, is up 19.3% in 2019. Cameron Brandt, director of research at EPFR, said money flows into European assets are “certainly indicating that all the bad news in Europe has been priced in.” “Given that the ECB is back in full backstop mode, and that Europe has a lot of dry powder in terms of fiscal stimulus … it’s probably fair to say the greatest potential for upside next year may be in Europe,” Brandt said. Within Europe, one market that could see further upside in 2020 is Germany, said Nuveen’s Brian Nick. The German Dax has rallied more than 20% in 2019 and is headed for its biggest one-year gain since 2013. “If we get a stabilization in growth in 2020, the internationally oriented countries should do a bit better, especially if China looks a little more solid as it seems to,” the firm’s chief investment strategist said. “Those two economies are more closely tied together than the U.S. is to either of those.”

Buy international for the new decade?


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, valuation, growth, bets, stocks, wall, global, international, equities, msci, index, street, economic, slump, europe, decadelong, 2020


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Ryan Reynolds’ gin company features ‘Peloton wife’ in new ad

The ad from Peloton, a company known for its exercise bikes, stirred up a storm across the internet this week. In the 50-second commercial, a man gives his wife — now known as the “Peloton wife” — an exercise bike as a gift. Following that viral, much criticized Peloton ad, actor Ryan Reynolds’ gin company has come up with a new commercial starring the very same actress at the center of the controversy. A new Aviation Gin commercial now appears to mock that ad. She stares at the camera in a leng


The ad from Peloton, a company known for its exercise bikes, stirred up a storm across the internet this week.
In the 50-second commercial, a man gives his wife — now known as the “Peloton wife” — an exercise bike as a gift.
Following that viral, much criticized Peloton ad, actor Ryan Reynolds’ gin company has come up with a new commercial starring the very same actress at the center of the controversy.
A new Aviation Gin commercial now appears to mock that ad.
She stares at the camera in a leng
Ryan Reynolds’ gin company features ‘Peloton wife’ in new ad Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: weizhen tan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, storm, company, saying, features, week, gin, peloton, ryan, exercise, wife, commercial, reynolds


Ryan Reynolds' gin company features 'Peloton wife' in new ad

The ad from Peloton, a company known for its exercise bikes, stirred up a storm across the internet this week. In the 50-second commercial, a man gives his wife — now known as the “Peloton wife” — an exercise bike as a gift. That sparked outrage online as viewers complained about what they saw as undertones of sexism in the ad.

Following that viral, much criticized Peloton ad, actor Ryan Reynolds’ gin company has come up with a new commercial starring the very same actress at the center of the controversy.

A new Aviation Gin commercial now appears to mock that ad. It was posted on Reynolds’ Twitter account on Friday night, with the actor writing in the post: “Exercise bike not included.”

In the ad, the very same actress is at a bar with two friends. She stares at the camera in a lengthy, awkward silence before saying: “This gin is really smooth.”

One of her friends then tell her she’s “safe here,” before they all toast to “new beginnings.” The ad, which has attracted more than a million views in two hours, ends with the friend telling her “you look great.”

Peloton shares took a hit from the storm of criticism, plunging about 15% through the week by Thursday, before picking up slightly on Friday.

The company has since responded, saying it was “disappointed in how some have misinterpreted this commercial.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: weizhen tan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, storm, company, saying, features, week, gin, peloton, ryan, exercise, wife, commercial, reynolds


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Adam Sandler on being fired from ‘Saturday Night Live’ in 1995 before achieving massive success

In 1995, Adam Sandler, then 28, was fired from NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” after five years on the show. “He was talking to me, and I said ‘Yeah, next year on the show, blah blah blah.’ After years of refusing to go back to SNL, Sandler returned to host May. Sandler then sang a song he called “I Was Fired”: “I was fired, I was fired. After SNL, Sandler co-wrote and starred other hit comedies like “Happy Gilmore” (1996) and “Big Daddy” (1999).


In 1995, Adam Sandler, then 28, was fired from NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” after five years on the show.
“He was talking to me, and I said ‘Yeah, next year on the show, blah blah blah.’
After years of refusing to go back to SNL, Sandler returned to host May.
Sandler then sang a song he called “I Was Fired”: “I was fired, I was fired.
After SNL, Sandler co-wrote and starred other hit comedies like “Happy Gilmore” (1996) and “Big Daddy” (1999).
Adam Sandler on being fired from ‘Saturday Night Live’ in 1995 before achieving massive success Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: taylor locke
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, fired, adam, sandler, night, know, live, blah, snl, thats, 1995, achieving, dont, told, think, success, massive, yeah


Adam Sandler on being fired from 'Saturday Night Live' in 1995 before achieving massive success

In 1995, Adam Sandler, then 28, was fired from NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” after five years on the show.

“At the time, I was hurt, because I didn’t know what else I was going to do,” Sandler, now 53, said on Tuesday’s “The Howard Stern Show.”

Sandler says he was fired during an odd conversation with his manager.

“He was talking to me, and I said ‘Yeah, next year on the show, blah blah blah.’ And he was like, ‘Maybe you don’t go back next year.’ And I was like ‘I don’t know man. I still got a few more things.’ He’s like ‘Yeah, but you did it already.’ I was like ‘I did, but you know…I’ll think about it,’ and he was like ‘I think you thought about it.'”

Leaving “put a lump in my throat,” Sandler said. “I was probably sad, covering up the sadness up with being mad, saying ‘yeah f— you.’ But I remember when I saw Farley, and he said ‘Me too, they don’t want me either,’ we were both like ‘f— this s—.’ We got mad together, pretended we weren’t sad, pretended this was for the best.”

Sandler’s feelings about the incident have since changed. “I am f—–g old enough now. I realize what ‘Saturday Night Live’ did for me… Everything turned out great.”

Looking back, says Sandler, “maybe I would’ve never left because I’m not good at saying goodbye. They had to get rid of me somehow.”

After years of refusing to go back to SNL, Sandler returned to host May. In his opening monologue for the show, he said he “couldn’t believe” he was back.

“I was 23 years old when I started here,” he said.

“I had some of the best years of my life here. I always tell [my wife and kids] how SNL was the greatest time in my life. My daughter asked me, ‘If it was the greatest, then why did you leave?'”

Sandler then sang a song he called “I Was Fired”: “I was fired, I was fired. NBC said that I was done. Then I made over 4 billion dollars at the box office, so I guess you could say I won.”

Sandler co-wrote and starred in movie “Billy Madison,” which premiered a few months before he left SNL. After SNL, Sandler co-wrote and starred other hit comedies like “Happy Gilmore” (1996) and “Big Daddy” (1999). He started his own production company, Happy Madison, in 1999.

The SNL incident wasn’t the first time Sandler experienced rejection. While attending New York University, Sandler’s acting professor told him to quit acting, told Brad Pitt on Nov. 12, who interviewed him for “Variety Studios: Actors on Actors.”

“He took you out for a beer and he kindly said to you, ‘Think about something else. Listen, you got heart, but you don’t have it. Choose another path,'” Pitt said to Sandler. “You ran into him when you were getting the ultimate payday…. Reportedly, what you did was, you said ‘hi’ and you introduced him to your friends and you said, ‘This is the only teacher to ever buy me a beer.'” Sandler confirmed the anecdote.

Pitt added, “that’s the guy I know, and I think that’s why you’re here after all these years.”

According to Forbes, Sandler was one of the highest paid actors of 2019, with $57 million in earnings.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: taylor locke
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, fired, adam, sandler, night, know, live, blah, snl, thats, 1995, achieving, dont, told, think, success, massive, yeah


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7Qs: How Karen Firestone beats the market with 35 names — ‘Don’t fall in love with your stocks’

(This story is part of the Weekend Brief edition of the Evening Brief newsletter. To sign up for CNBC’s Evening Brief, click here.) Firestone runs a concentrated equity portfolio with only 35 stocks, which returned more than 30% this year, beating the S&P 500’s 25% gain. After a 22-year run at Fidelity, Firestone founded Aureus Asset Management, a wealth advisory firm that now manages over $1 billion of clients’ assets. Having spent most of her life picking stocks, Firestone shared with CNBC her


(This story is part of the Weekend Brief edition of the Evening Brief newsletter.
To sign up for CNBC’s Evening Brief, click here.)
Firestone runs a concentrated equity portfolio with only 35 stocks, which returned more than 30% this year, beating the S&P 500’s 25% gain.
After a 22-year run at Fidelity, Firestone founded Aureus Asset Management, a wealth advisory firm that now manages over $1 billion of clients’ assets.
Having spent most of her life picking stocks, Firestone shared with CNBC her
7Qs: How Karen Firestone beats the market with 35 names — ‘Don’t fall in love with your stocks’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: yun li
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, market, evening, stocks, fall, 7qs, fund, worst, love, beats, picking, 500s, dont, brief, names, management, karen, firestone


7Qs: How Karen Firestone beats the market with 35 names — 'Don't fall in love with your stocks'

(This story is part of the Weekend Brief edition of the Evening Brief newsletter. To sign up for CNBC’s Evening Brief, click here.)

Wall Street veteran Karen Firestone knows all too well that stock picking isn’t as easy as it used to be, but her decades of experience is serving her well.

Firestone runs a concentrated equity portfolio with only 35 stocks, which returned more than 30% this year, beating the S&P 500’s 25% gain.

She started out as an assistant fund manager to Peter Lynch in 1983 on Fidelity’s legendary Magellan Fund, which consistently more than doubled the S&P 500’s performance under his management. After a 22-year run at Fidelity, Firestone founded Aureus Asset Management, a wealth advisory firm that now manages over $1 billion of clients’ assets.

Having spent most of her life picking stocks, Firestone shared with CNBC her investing philosophy, her best and worst trades, as well as the biggest lesson learned in her career.

Here are 7Qs for Firestone:


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: yun li
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, market, evening, stocks, fall, 7qs, fund, worst, love, beats, picking, 500s, dont, brief, names, management, karen, firestone


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Buy a Monet instead of a Treasury? Art has shown long-term returns that rival bonds

Astronomical auction prices may have defined the art market in recent years, but new research shows that over the long-term the value of art has steadily climbed, delivering returns relatively in-line with bonds. Impressionist art averaged 5.0%, while the art market as a whole returned 5.3% annually. Chesnot | Getty ImagesIn 2018 the art market hit $67.4 billion, according to estimates from UBS, which was the second highest on record. “Periods of falling and/or low real rates have coincided with


Astronomical auction prices may have defined the art market in recent years, but new research shows that over the long-term the value of art has steadily climbed, delivering returns relatively in-line with bonds.
Impressionist art averaged 5.0%, while the art market as a whole returned 5.3% annually.
Chesnot | Getty ImagesIn 2018 the art market hit $67.4 billion, according to estimates from UBS, which was the second highest on record.
“Periods of falling and/or low real rates have coincided with
Buy a Monet instead of a Treasury? Art has shown long-term returns that rival bonds Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: pippa stevens
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, art, longterm, returns, market, return, investors, returned, prices, bonds, monet, shown, rival, buy, citi, firm, works, instead, treasury


Buy a Monet instead of a Treasury? Art has shown long-term returns that rival bonds

(This story is part of the Weekend Brief edition of the Evening Brief newsletter. To sign up for CNBC’s Evening Brief, click here.) Astronomical auction prices may have defined the art market in recent years, but new research shows that over the long-term the value of art has steadily climbed, delivering returns relatively in-line with bonds. Since 1985 contemporary art has been the best bet for investors of the asset class, returning an average of 7.5% per year, Citi said in a report using data from Masterworks.io. Impressionist art averaged 5.0%, while the art market as a whole returned 5.3% annually. Art can be a wildly volatile market — among other things it’s subject to the whim of consumer tastes — but Citi said that it’s becoming an increasingly popular way for investors to diversify their portfolio since art’s return isn’t correlated with any other major asset class. In other words, its performance is independent of strength or weakness in various areas of the market. This is “art’s most attractive investment quality over the long run,” Citi said.

Visitors look at a painting entitled ‘Salvator Mundi’ by School of Leonardo da Vinci during a press visit of the exhibition “Leonardo da Vinci” at the Louvre museum on October 22, 2019 in Paris, France. The painting sold at auction by Christie’s for over $450 million on November 15, 2017. Chesnot | Getty Images

In 2018 the art market hit $67.4 billion, according to estimates from UBS, which was the second highest on record. In May one of Monet’s haystacks went for $110.7 million, and Picasso’s “Young Girl with a Flower Basket” and a Modigliani painting of a reclining nude woman were among the works to top $100 million at auction in 2018. Perhaps most famously, Leonardo da Vinci’s “Salvator Mundi” sold for a record $450.3 million in 2017. While these numbers are attention grabbing, there’s also a robust market at much lower prices. Citi found that works under $50,000 actually offer “the best performing price point from both a return and a risk per unit of return basis,” adding that “there is no disadvantage from a return perspective to having a small purse.”

Art offers similar returns to fixed income

Using data from Masterworks.io, which tracks auction sales from Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips, Citi found that between 1985 and 2018 the art market as a whole has returned an average of 5.3% annually. Contemporary art has been the top performer, returning an average of 7.4% annually, while art from the Impressionist period has returned 5%. The return on art most closely matches that of fixed income. In the same time frame investment grade bonds from developed countries returned 6.5%, while global high yield bonds returned 8.1%, Citi said. Developed-market equities and private equity returns 9.8% and 13.9%, respectively. Citi said that the relative outperformance of post-war and contemporary art is likely because it currently “commands the largest share of annual transaction volume,” and “appears to attract the most demand from new entrants to the market.” The firm also found that art typically does better when interest rates are low since the opportunity cost — or the higher that investors might otherwise be getting from fixed income — goes down. “While the relationship has been far from perfect, art prices have tended to move in line with broad shifts in real interest rates,” the firm said. “Periods of falling and/or low real rates have coincided with rising art prices.” After crunching the numbers from 13,000 works of art sold since July of 2016, the firm found a few key takeaways, including that holding art for longer typically lowers the risk of future returns, and that higher returns are typically given to more liquid artists. “Art has proven to be an excellent store of wealth over all time periods, easily exceeding inflation,” the firm said. Overall, the firm said that art has been “an excellent store of wealth over all time periods” since it easily exceeds inflation.

Traction with technology

A lack of transparency around sales has been a longstanding hurdle for the art market, but Citi said that could be about to change thanks to technological advancements like blockchain. “Digital technologies such as blockchain could help automate vital processes, including establishing authenticity and performing valuations, as well as enabling sharebased investment in individual works and collections,” the firm said. “More transparent pricing, more readily available data on sales, greater market liquidity, and lower transaction costs could result. If realized, such efficiencies would make the art market more attractive for collectors and investors alike.” This is especially important as baby boomers prepare to pass an estimated $68 trillion to their children in the United States alone. Millennials and Generation X care more about how their money is being used, Citi said, so blockchain technology could be an important way for users trace and set up protocols for their donations, for example.

“With the potential for technology to enhance the world of art over the coming years, we believe that art’s existing appeal to collectors and investors could increase further,” Citi said.

Returns, but not without risk


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: pippa stevens
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, art, longterm, returns, market, return, investors, returned, prices, bonds, monet, shown, rival, buy, citi, firm, works, instead, treasury


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