JP Morgan says ‘adverse’ impact from Mexico tariffs would cause the Fed to cut rates twice

The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates twice this year in response to the impact from President Donald Trump potentially opening a new front in the trade war, according to J.P. Morgan strategists. The firm is the first on Wall Street to catch up to market expectations that the Fed will ease policy aggressively this year amid concerns over a global economic slowdown exacerbated by tariffs. Barclays followed later in the day, calling for two cuts as well but totaling 75 basis points,


The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates twice this year in response to the impact from President Donald Trump potentially opening a new front in the trade war, according to J.P. Morgan strategists. The firm is the first on Wall Street to catch up to market expectations that the Fed will ease policy aggressively this year amid concerns over a global economic slowdown exacerbated by tariffs. Barclays followed later in the day, calling for two cuts as well but totaling 75 basis points,
JP Morgan says ‘adverse’ impact from Mexico tariffs would cause the Fed to cut rates twice Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-31  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wall, morgan, war, mexico, twice, impact, fed, tariffs, cut, trump, trade, cause, unless, totaling, rates, jp, start


JP Morgan says 'adverse' impact from Mexico tariffs would cause the Fed to cut rates twice

The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates twice this year in response to the impact from President Donald Trump potentially opening a new front in the trade war, according to J.P. Morgan strategists.

The firm is the first on Wall Street to catch up to market expectations that the Fed will ease policy aggressively this year amid concerns over a global economic slowdown exacerbated by tariffs. Barclays followed later in the day, calling for two cuts as well but totaling 75 basis points, with a half-point cut happening in September.

In an announcement that took markets by surprise, Trump said he will start taxing imports from Mexico unless the country takes steps to stem the flow of illegal immigrants into the U.S. The tariffs would start at 5% on June 10 then escalate each month until they reach 25%.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-31  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wall, morgan, war, mexico, twice, impact, fed, tariffs, cut, trump, trade, cause, unless, totaling, rates, jp, start


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One of Amazon’s biggest bulls explains four risks that could cause the ‘demise’ of the company

Trump says US will impose 5% tariff on all Mexican imports from…Duties of up to 25% will be added if Mexico does not substantially stop the “illegal inflow of aliens” entering the U.S., the White House said Thursday. Traderead more


Trump says US will impose 5% tariff on all Mexican imports from…Duties of up to 25% will be added if Mexico does not substantially stop the “illegal inflow of aliens” entering the U.S., the White House said Thursday. Traderead more
One of Amazon’s biggest bulls explains four risks that could cause the ‘demise’ of the company Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-30  Authors: eugene kim
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, inflow, bulls, cause, substantially, mexico, stop, risks, amazons, company, demise, white, trump, mexican, explains, impose, thursdaytraderead, tariff, biggest


One of Amazon's biggest bulls explains four risks that could cause the 'demise' of the company

Trump says US will impose 5% tariff on all Mexican imports from…

Duties of up to 25% will be added if Mexico does not substantially stop the “illegal inflow of aliens” entering the U.S., the White House said Thursday.

Trade

read more


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-30  Authors: eugene kim
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, inflow, bulls, cause, substantially, mexico, stop, risks, amazons, company, demise, white, trump, mexican, explains, impose, thursdaytraderead, tariff, biggest


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Three things could cause a ‘second wave’ in the market sell-off

The combination of mounting recession fears, bets on a more cautious Federal Reserve and a regular uptick in market volatility at the end of May may be too much for equity investors to withstand, wrote Nomura strategist Masanari Takada. First, short-term market players like macro hedge funds have started selling U.S. equities and buying bonds, encouraging others to follow suit with similar “pessimistic” moves, the strategist added. Some traders also viewed the S&P 500’s intraday drop below 2,820


The combination of mounting recession fears, bets on a more cautious Federal Reserve and a regular uptick in market volatility at the end of May may be too much for equity investors to withstand, wrote Nomura strategist Masanari Takada. First, short-term market players like macro hedge funds have started selling U.S. equities and buying bonds, encouraging others to follow suit with similar “pessimistic” moves, the strategist added. Some traders also viewed the S&P 500’s intraday drop below 2,820
Three things could cause a ‘second wave’ in the market sell-off Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-24  Authors: thomas franck
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wave, wrote, strategist, traders, volatility, selloff, market, trade, cut, equities, end, cause, second, things, investors


Three things could cause a 'second wave' in the market sell-off

One Wall Street strategist is warning that three factors could trigger the stock market’s next sell-off before the end of May and push the major indexes to lows as the summer season gets under way.

The combination of mounting recession fears, bets on a more cautious Federal Reserve and a regular uptick in market volatility at the end of May may be too much for equity investors to withstand, wrote Nomura strategist Masanari Takada.

“Investors should be focused on the potential downside for global equities in the near term, given that sentiment is still pointing down,” Takada wrote in a note to clients. “We think a second wave in the selloff may still be coming, and with risk-parity funds due to rebalance their portfolios at the end of the month as well (presumably selling stocks and buying bonds), we think it best to be on guard for a jump” in volatility next week.

First, short-term market players like macro hedge funds have started selling U.S. equities and buying bonds, encouraging others to follow suit with similar “pessimistic” moves, the strategist added. Some traders also viewed the S&P 500’s intraday drop below 2,820 on Thursday as a technical indicator to cut losses.

Stocks have been under pressure in recent days, weighed down mounting concerns that the trade war between the U.S. and China could persist longer and curb GDP growth more than first thought. Investors have pointed to trade angst for a 1% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a 1.3% fall in the S&P 500 this week.

Investors may been less inclined to buy equities following the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes, Normura said. While investors still believe the central bank is more likely than not to cut rates at least once by December, its more upbeat tone in May may change those odds. Some market participants believe that Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues won’t let the financial markets deteriorate too much before slashing rates in an attempt to soften the fall.

“This change in tone may shake the confidence of certain fundamentals investors who have been expecting an exercise of the ‘Fed put’ but, at the same time, the market may be moving in anticipation of bad news in a way that ultimately forces the Fed to execute a precautionary rate cut anyway,” Takada wrote.

Lastly, the strategist warned that a second-wave surge in volatility could still creep on traders before the month’s end. Based on historical trends, volatility derivatives tend to spike twice in May, portending a potential surge in angst over the next five trading sessions, according to Nomura.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-24  Authors: thomas franck
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wave, wrote, strategist, traders, volatility, selloff, market, trade, cut, equities, end, cause, second, things, investors


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Retailers to take a hit: Trade war could cause ‘widespread store closures’

Another potential round of tariffs in a tit-for-tat trade war between the U.S. and China could have an unintended consequences: massive store closures. “The market is not realizing how much brick & mortar retail is incrementally struggling and how new 25% tariffs could force widespread store closures,” UBS analyst Jay Sole said in a research note. “We think potential 25% tariffs on Chinese imports could accelerate pressure on these company’s profit margins to the point where major store closures


Another potential round of tariffs in a tit-for-tat trade war between the U.S. and China could have an unintended consequences: massive store closures. “The market is not realizing how much brick & mortar retail is incrementally struggling and how new 25% tariffs could force widespread store closures,” UBS analyst Jay Sole said in a research note. “We think potential 25% tariffs on Chinese imports could accelerate pressure on these company’s profit margins to the point where major store closures
Retailers to take a hit: Trade war could cause ‘widespread store closures’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-14  Authors: lauren thomas
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, war, trump, struggling, 25, trade, list, cause, goods, hit, tariffs, retailers, closures, store, chinese, widespread


Retailers to take a hit: Trade war could cause 'widespread store closures'

Another potential round of tariffs in a tit-for-tat trade war between the U.S. and China could have an unintended consequences: massive store closures.

The White House on Monday evening released a fresh list for about $300 billion in Chinese goods that President Donald Trump has said he’s contemplating hitting with tariffs as high as 25%. The list includes everything from clothing and sneakers to sporting goods and other accessories, often found at the mall.

“The market is not realizing how much brick & mortar retail is incrementally struggling and how new 25% tariffs could force widespread store closures,” UBS analyst Jay Sole said in a research note. “We think potential 25% tariffs on Chinese imports could accelerate pressure on these company’s profit margins to the point where major store closures become a real possibility.”

Just last week, the Trump administration raised tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. But retailers, for the most part, were unscathed, with many of the items impacted by that hike hurting agricultural workers. Furniture, handbags and some consumer electronics were on that list, but not apparel and shoes.

Then, China retaliated on Monday by raising tariffs on about $60 billion of U.S. goods.

And now the Trump administration has proposed a new list that targets items like performance wear, windbreakers, headbands, gloves, bathing suits and ski suits.

UBS said it was already calling for nearly 21,000 stores to close by 2026 in the U.S. But now, it said a new round of tariffs could cause more than 50% of those closures to happen within the course of one year, rather than four, as it was estimating. And this is only looking a publicly traded retailers, Sole said. “We continue to think the apparel and footwear consumer’s willingness to spend remains tepid at best.”

Many retailers — and specifically those that sell clothing — have already been struggling, without the threat of tariffs hanging over them. Companies like Victoria’s Secret, Gap, Gymboree, Chico’s, Payless Shoesource and Charlotte Russe have been shutting stores, struggling to find ways to differentiate themselves from popular fast-fashion brands like Zara, and up-start brands like Everlane, Rockets of Awesome and ThirdLove.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-14  Authors: lauren thomas
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, war, trump, struggling, 25, trade, list, cause, goods, hit, tariffs, retailers, closures, store, chinese, widespread


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Cramer Remix: Bed Bath & Beyond is not a lost cause

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday said it’s time for “wholesale change” in Bed Bath & Beyond’s management. “In 2016, [CEO Steven] Temares started telling us he’d made the stores more experiential to improve the shopping experience, but you wouldn’t know it if you’ve been to a Bed Bath & Beyond lately,” Cramer said. A number of groups are reportedly trying to leverage their share in Bed Bath & Beyond to change the board of directors, and the stock spiked on the news last month. The activists said tha


CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday said it’s time for “wholesale change” in Bed Bath & Beyond’s management. “In 2016, [CEO Steven] Temares started telling us he’d made the stores more experiential to improve the shopping experience, but you wouldn’t know it if you’ve been to a Bed Bath & Beyond lately,” Cramer said. A number of groups are reportedly trying to leverage their share in Bed Bath & Beyond to change the board of directors, and the stock spiked on the news last month. The activists said tha
Cramer Remix: Bed Bath & Beyond is not a lost cause Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-11  Authors: tyler clifford, andrew harrer, bloomberg, getty images, john lamparski, wireimage, adam jeffery, jim watson, afp
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trying, cause, temares, margins, bath, stock, goods, remix, retail, bed, host, cramer, lost


Cramer Remix: Bed Bath & Beyond is not a lost cause

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday said it’s time for “wholesale change” in Bed Bath & Beyond’s management.

“The company still has a good balance sheet, $1 billion in cash, so I think it can be saved,” the “Mad Money” host said. “But I gotta tell you something: not with this management team.”

The home goods chain is grossly behind the new retail landscape, where it must compete with e-commerce disrupters such as Amazon, Cramer said. The company’s “half-hearted initiatives,” such as focusing on private-label brands, have not boosted the margins, and home furnishing and décor is simply not working, he added.

“In 2016, [CEO Steven] Temares started telling us he’d made the stores more experiential to improve the shopping experience, but you wouldn’t know it if you’ve been to a Bed Bath & Beyond lately,” Cramer said.

Activist investors, who buy large amounts of a certain stock to push major changes in that company, want Temares out. A number of groups are reportedly trying to leverage their share in Bed Bath & Beyond to change the board of directors, and the stock spiked on the news last month.

The activists said that Bed Bath & Beyond lost 58% of its value during a same period that the S&P 500 has gained 342% and its retail peers increased 592%, Cramer noted.

“All of that pain is from the past five years,” he said.

To compete with Amazon’s prices for identical products, Bed Bath & Beyond is trying to lure customers to its $29 loyalty program with 20% discounts and free shipping on internet orders, Cramer said.

“This strategy has been devastating for Bed Bath’s … gross margins — what they make after the cost of goods sold — which have fallen from 40% in 2012 to under 35% in the latest quarter,” the host said.

Get his full thoughts here


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-11  Authors: tyler clifford, andrew harrer, bloomberg, getty images, john lamparski, wireimage, adam jeffery, jim watson, afp
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trying, cause, temares, margins, bath, stock, goods, remix, retail, bed, host, cramer, lost


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Cramer: It would take two surprises — on trade and the Fed — to cause the next recession

Jim Cramer: Three Fed rate hikes would cause the next recession 3 Hours Ago | 02:09The Federal Reserve hiking interest rates aggressively and the U.S. not reaching a trade deal with China could be the catalysts that spur an economic recession, CNBC’s Jim Cramer contended Monday. Cramer doesn’t see a recession, at least anytime soon. But when asked by CNBC’s Joe Kernen on “Squawk Box” what would cause the next recession, Cramer responded with, “Three [Fed] tightenings and no trade agreement.” U.S


Jim Cramer: Three Fed rate hikes would cause the next recession 3 Hours Ago | 02:09The Federal Reserve hiking interest rates aggressively and the U.S. not reaching a trade deal with China could be the catalysts that spur an economic recession, CNBC’s Jim Cramer contended Monday. Cramer doesn’t see a recession, at least anytime soon. But when asked by CNBC’s Joe Kernen on “Squawk Box” what would cause the next recession, Cramer responded with, “Three [Fed] tightenings and no trade agreement.” U.S
Cramer: It would take two surprises — on trade and the Fed — to cause the next recession Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-11  Authors: berkeley lovelace jr
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, rate, cramer, trumps, summit, stocks, sp, president, cause, fed, recession, surprises


Cramer: It would take two surprises — on trade and the Fed — to cause the next recession

Jim Cramer: Three Fed rate hikes would cause the next recession 3 Hours Ago | 02:09

The Federal Reserve hiking interest rates aggressively and the U.S. not reaching a trade deal with China could be the catalysts that spur an economic recession, CNBC’s Jim Cramer contended Monday.

Cramer doesn’t see a recession, at least anytime soon. But when asked by CNBC’s Joe Kernen on “Squawk Box” what would cause the next recession, Cramer responded with, “Three [Fed] tightenings and no trade agreement.”

Cramer spoke as the list of economists and business elite predicting a downturn grows. The latest call was from Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, who told the World Government Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Sunday that there’s a decent chance the global economy is headed for a recession this year.

Economists see on average a 25 percent chance of a recession within the next 12 months, according to a Wall Street Journal survey released last month, the highest level since October 2011 and up from just 13 percent last year.

U.S. stocks opened higher Monday, sparked in part by hopes for a China trade deal as talks resume this week. Axios reported that President Donald Trump’s advisors have informally discussed holding a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping next month at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s private club in Florida.

The market had been under serious pressure since early October in part on trade concerns and that the Fed would be more aggressive on rate hikes. Stocks in December plunged in their worst Christmas Eve trading ever, with the S&P 500 sinking 2.7 percent and slipping into a bear market, defined as a decline in an index or asset of 20 percent or more from recent highs

Since the Dec. 24 close, however, the S&P 500 has rallied nearly 15.2 percent through Friday’s close.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-11  Authors: berkeley lovelace jr
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, rate, cramer, trumps, summit, stocks, sp, president, cause, fed, recession, surprises


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Cracks appearing for leveraged loans that helped cause financial crisis

That would be a massive drop-off from 2018, which saw $274 billion in issuance during the first half alone, according to LeveragedLoan.com. The key risk point for the industry is securitization, or the bundling of the loans into offerings such as collateralized loan obligations. Yellen mentioned that danger specifically, saying the CLO industry for leveraged loans looked a lot like the subprime mortgage offerings that led up to the financial crisis. Wall Street sells CLOs to investors looking fo


That would be a massive drop-off from 2018, which saw $274 billion in issuance during the first half alone, according to LeveragedLoan.com. The key risk point for the industry is securitization, or the bundling of the loans into offerings such as collateralized loan obligations. Yellen mentioned that danger specifically, saying the CLO industry for leveraged loans looked a lot like the subprime mortgage offerings that led up to the financial crisis. Wall Street sells CLOs to investors looking fo
Cracks appearing for leveraged loans that helped cause financial crisis Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-29  Authors: jeff cox, michael nagle, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, crisis, appearing, industry, investors, saw, helped, market, loans, billion, securitization, offerings, cracks, issuance, financial, cause, looking, refinitiv, leveraged


Cracks appearing for leveraged loans that helped cause financial crisis

As the warnings were being issued, both investors and companies looking for funding left the market.

Mutual fund outflows in December alone hit $15.4 billion in December, according to Refinitiv. The firm’s LPC group surveyed market participants and found they expect issuance to be weak this year, with most looking for it to be in a range of $90 billion to $110 billion. That would be a massive drop-off from 2018, which saw $274 billion in issuance during the first half alone, according to LeveragedLoan.com.

The key risk point for the industry is securitization, or the bundling of the loans into offerings such as collateralized loan obligations.

Yellen mentioned that danger specifically, saying the CLO industry for leveraged loans looked a lot like the subprime mortgage offerings that led up to the financial crisis. Wall Street sells CLOs to investors looking for yield; during the crisis, the securities became so opaque that investors had a hard time deciphering what they even held. The issues over securitization helped spark a lack of confidence that led to liquidity drying up in financial markets.

Refinitiv said CLO issuance hit a record $128 billion last year, though December saw the market sink to a two-year low.

One final issue hitting the industry has been the Federal Reserve.

Higher interest rates make the products more attractive, but central bank officials in recent days have become more tepid about the pace of increases. The possibility that the Fed may enact any hikes this year is another problem for the industry, Refinitiv LPC said.

The firm said the appetite for issuance to Athenahealth and Dun & Bradstreet, which launched earlier this week, will provide signals for this year’s market.

WATCH: Have companies taken on too much debt?


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-29  Authors: jeff cox, michael nagle, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, crisis, appearing, industry, investors, saw, helped, market, loans, billion, securitization, offerings, cracks, issuance, financial, cause, looking, refinitiv, leveraged


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Nervous investors cite Washington politics as top cause for concern

More investors are feeling jittery about the market. 1 concern is the political landscape in Washington. That’s according to the latest retail investor sentiment report released by Charles Schwab. The results are based on an online survey conducted in December, before the partial federal shutdown, which began on Dec. 22 and lasted for 35 days. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that another shutdown is “certainly an option.”


More investors are feeling jittery about the market. 1 concern is the political landscape in Washington. That’s according to the latest retail investor sentiment report released by Charles Schwab. The results are based on an online survey conducted in December, before the partial federal shutdown, which began on Dec. 22 and lasted for 35 days. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that another shutdown is “certainly an option.”
Nervous investors cite Washington politics as top cause for concern Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-28  Authors: lorie konish, jabin botsford, the washington post, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, politics, cause, weekend, trump, report, investors, cite, washingtonthats, survey, concern, nervous, washington, sentiment, schwab, shutdown, retail, results


Nervous investors cite Washington politics as top cause for concern

More investors are feeling jittery about the market. And their No. 1 concern is the political landscape in Washington.

That’s according to the latest retail investor sentiment report released by Charles Schwab. The results are based on an online survey conducted in December, before the partial federal shutdown, which began on Dec. 22 and lasted for 35 days.

Lawmakers reached a deal on Friday to reopen the government until Feb. 15. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that another shutdown is “certainly an option.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-28  Authors: lorie konish, jabin botsford, the washington post, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, politics, cause, weekend, trump, report, investors, cite, washingtonthats, survey, concern, nervous, washington, sentiment, schwab, shutdown, retail, results


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Head of the group that calls recessions says the government shutdown won’t cause one

In mid-January, it became the longest shutdown in history, surpassing the 21-day closure during the Clinton administration in 1995 and early 1996. Kevin Hassett, chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisors, told CNN on Wednesday the U.S. might post no economic growth in the first quarter if the government does not reopen. As of now, Poterba said, the NBER committee has not been discussing whether a recession might be on the horizon. “In late November of 2008 the NBER announced a rec


In mid-January, it became the longest shutdown in history, surpassing the 21-day closure during the Clinton administration in 1995 and early 1996. Kevin Hassett, chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisors, told CNN on Wednesday the U.S. might post no economic growth in the first quarter if the government does not reopen. As of now, Poterba said, the NBER committee has not been discussing whether a recession might be on the horizon. “In late November of 2008 the NBER announced a rec
Head of the group that calls recessions says the government shutdown won’t cause one Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-25  Authors: matthew j belvedere
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, economic, head, wont, recessions, poterba, recession, quarter, shutdown, wall, cause, calls, committee, growth, group, twoquarter, nber


Head of the group that calls recessions says the government shutdown won't cause one

The government shutdown, which entered Day 35 on Friday, won’t cause an economic recession, because it began so close to the start of the first quarter of 2019, said James Poterba, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which decides when recessions begin and end.

Poterba, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said he does not see the current shutdown tipping the economy into a two-quarter contraction, which is generally seen as a guideline in calling recessions. “You’d have to have a very, very long shutdown for that to happen.”

The standoff between President Donald Trump and Democratic legislators over Trump’s demand for border wall funding led to the partial closure of the federal government on Dec. 22, just before the end of the final quarter of 2018. In mid-January, it became the longest shutdown in history, surpassing the 21-day closure during the Clinton administration in 1995 and early 1996.

Kevin Hassett, chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisors, told CNN on Wednesday the U.S. might post no economic growth in the first quarter if the government does not reopen. But “the second-quarter number would be humongous if the government reopened,” he said. “It would be like 4 or 5 percent.”

Poterba on Friday did put forth a hypothetical in a “Squawk Box” interview: “You could see a situation in which a shutdown ran from the middle of one quarter to the middle of the next, [in which] the growth numbers in both quarters ended up slightly negative.”

However, such a scenario would still probably not trigger a recession call, he said. “That’s a great example of where the two-quarter negative rule could, in fact, get you into some difficulty,” he explained. “It’s conceivable in a situation like that that the NBER committee would say, ‘As long as there was reasonable growth before and after, this was an aberration and was not a true recession.’ And the committee might decide not to call that.”

As of now, Poterba said, the NBER committee has not been discussing whether a recession might be on the horizon. “It’s a very data-driven decision. The decisions on when to date these business cycles are made by a committee. It’s not a simple rule. It’s not two quarters of decline in real GDP,” he said. “At a moment like this, when we’re seeing a period of continuing growth, there’s not a lot to talk about. So the committee doesn’t have any reason to meet.”

Poterba appeared on CNBC as debate rages among economists, Wall Street strategists and Washington leaders on whether signs of an economic slowdown in certain sectors, such as housing and autos, is signaling a recession this year or next, or not anytime in the near future.

However, investors hoping for early cues from the NBER should be careful: The committee often makes its conclusions after the fact. The Great Recession, the longest since World War II, was a “clear example,” Poterba said. “In late November of 2008 the NBER announced a recession had begun in December of 2007.” It wasn’t until September 2010 that the NBER acknowledged that the recession had come to an end in June 2009.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-25  Authors: matthew j belvedere
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, economic, head, wont, recessions, poterba, recession, quarter, shutdown, wall, cause, calls, committee, growth, group, twoquarter, nber


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Extending the Brexit deadline could cause major issues with EU elections coming

Extending the official Brexit deadline for the U.K. could bring a wave of extra logistical and political problems for the European Union. Extending the departure beyond the agreed date would likely clash with European parliamentary elections that are set to take place between May 23 and 26. The chamber is made of lawmakers from all 28 European member countries, including the U.K., and is responsible for approving European policies, such as the Union’s total budget. Macron said Wednesday that the


Extending the official Brexit deadline for the U.K. could bring a wave of extra logistical and political problems for the European Union. Extending the departure beyond the agreed date would likely clash with European parliamentary elections that are set to take place between May 23 and 26. The chamber is made of lawmakers from all 28 European member countries, including the U.K., and is responsible for approving European policies, such as the Union’s total budget. Macron said Wednesday that the
Extending the Brexit deadline could cause major issues with EU elections coming Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-18  Authors: silvia amaro, frederick florin, afp, getty images, simon dawson, bloomberg
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, member, eu, parliament, cause, place, elections, brexit, issues, speaking, european, coming, extending, deadline, uk, extension, major


Extending the Brexit deadline could cause major issues with EU elections coming

Extending the official Brexit deadline for the U.K. could bring a wave of extra logistical and political problems for the European Union.

The ongoing deadlock has sparked a debate on the potential extension of Article 50 — the legal means by which the U.K. leaves the EU. However, there is strong opposition from some European lawmakers over giving more time to the U.K. to sort out its domestic politics.

The U.K. is set to leave the EU on March 29 — but this could change if the U.K. asks for an extension and the other 27 member nations accept the request. Extending the departure beyond the agreed date would likely clash with European parliamentary elections that are set to take place between May 23 and 26. The chamber is made of lawmakers from all 28 European member countries, including the U.K., and is responsible for approving European policies, such as the Union’s total budget.

“What we will not let happen, deal or no deal, is that the mess in British politics is again imported into European politics. While we understand the U.K. could need more time, for us it is unthinkable that Article 50 is prolonged beyond the European Elections,” Guy Verhofstadt, a member of the European Parliament and its representative in Brexit negotiations, said on Twitter on Wednesday.

His comments come at a time when U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposed Brexit deal suffered a historic defeat in the House of Commons on Tuesday. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron weighed in on the possibility that the U.K. would have to push back its departure date.

Macron said Wednesday that the U.K. “will take more time (to overcome the Brexit impasse), maybe they will step over the European elections in order to find something else.”

Speaking to CNBC via email Friday, Seb Dance, member of the European Parliament for the U.K. Labour party, said the prospect of having Brexit and the European elections clashing “is a logistical headache.”

“The impact of delaying Brexit on the EU elections is certainly troublesome logistically speaking,” he said, “but politically speaking it shouldn’t make a difference as it is entirely possible that elections take place in the other member states without needing to take place in Britain.”

However, some argue that even politically, it would be troublesome, as European officials and institutions want to focus on campaigning and speaking to voters ahead of the vote. The wave of populist sentiment in Europe after the fallout of the sovereign debt crisis has raised concerns, among the traditional parties, about what the next European Parliament will look like.

According to a Brussels-based European official, who did not want to be named due to the sensitivity surrounding the Brexit talks, an extension would likely mean that the U.K. would have to participate in the vote. This is because it would still technically be a member of the European Union.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-18  Authors: silvia amaro, frederick florin, afp, getty images, simon dawson, bloomberg
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, member, eu, parliament, cause, place, elections, brexit, issues, speaking, european, coming, extending, deadline, uk, extension, major


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