Cartels may not be the primary culprits of Central American human smuggling to US, a new study says

“At best, we could provide a broad range for the revenues to all types of human smugglers.” The study looked at revenues earned by human smugglers, as well as taxes levied on migrants by drug-trafficking organizations on routes they control. “Transnational criminal organizations and other human smugglers are driven solely by illicit profit and do not care about human life.” The study also estimated the flow of unlawful migrants from the Northern Triangle countries to the U.S., relying in part on


“At best, we could provide a broad range for the revenues to all types of human smugglers.” The study looked at revenues earned by human smugglers, as well as taxes levied on migrants by drug-trafficking organizations on routes they control. “Transnational criminal organizations and other human smugglers are driven solely by illicit profit and do not care about human life.” The study also estimated the flow of unlawful migrants from the Northern Triangle countries to the U.S., relying in part on
Cartels may not be the primary culprits of Central American human smuggling to US, a new study says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-22  Authors: jeff daniels, adrees latif
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, migrants, smuggling, organizations, rand, primary, border, culprits, human, smugglers, northern, cartels, american, central, triangle, study, report


Cartels may not be the primary culprits of Central American human smuggling to US, a new study says

Human smuggling from Central American countries to the U.S. reaped revenue of between $200 million and $2.3 billion for smugglers in 2017, but transnational criminal organizations may not be the primary culprits, according to a Rand Corp. report released Monday.

President Donald Trump recently moved to cut foreign aid to the Northern Triangle countries of Central America — Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador — and in January claimed “ruthless coyotes and vicious cartels” are taking advantage of thousands of children who make the journey up to the U.S. border. Trump also cited human trafficking in February when he declared a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, freeing up billions of dollars for his border wall.

“We learned that human smuggling involves many different types of actors and that we could not credibly distinguish most criminal organizations’ activities and revenues from those of other actors, including ad hoc groups and independent operators, that engage in human smuggling,” said Victoria Greenfield, lead author on the report and a senior economist at the nonprofit think tank. “At best, we could provide a broad range for the revenues to all types of human smugglers.”

“Although our findings are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, they represent a contribution to the evidence base informing ongoing U.S. government efforts to address threats to homeland security posed by TCOs and other actors that participate in human smuggling,” Rand said.

Also, Rand said because human smuggling operations are often independent and without “formality and strict hierarchical structures,” it might be difficult for the U.S. government to target them with sanctions or other measures effectively.

“Loose networks are difficult to disrupt, ad hoc groups are even less susceptible, and independent operators are easily replaceable,” the report concluded. It added that even if the U.S. government “can apply sanctions to some individuals in a given network or group or to individuals who operate independently, its ability to disrupt their organizations or affect the market may be limited.”

Rand’s 78-page report follows a study it conducted that was sponsored by the Department of Homeland Security. The study looked at revenues earned by human smugglers, as well as taxes levied on migrants by drug-trafficking organizations on routes they control.

“DHS has long warned of the dangers of trafficking and its horrendous impacts on the victims,” DHS press secretary Tyler Houlton said in an emailed statement. “Transnational criminal organizations and other human smugglers are driven solely by illicit profit and do not care about human life.”

According to Rand, the smuggling of unlawful migrants from the Northern Triangle region to the U.S. generated between $200 million and $2.3 billion for smugglers in 2017. It said the wide range reflects uncertainty about the number of migrants that journey northward, their use of smugglers and the fees they ultimately pay.

Rand estimated that migrants or their handlers paid drug-trafficking organizations taxes, or pisos, of $30 million to $180 million for crossing through their territories in 2017.

The report said cartels or TCOs sometimes “coordinate migrants’ border crossings to divert attention from other illicit activities, and they recruit or coerce some migrants to carry drugs.”

Rand estimated that the human smugglers charge migrants between $6,000 and $10,000 for their services. It said fees vary greatly and depend on whether migrants want to be smuggled into the interior of the U.S. or turn themselves in to border officials and seek asylum.

The study also estimated the flow of unlawful migrants from the Northern Triangle countries to the U.S., relying in part on government data. It estimated the unlawful migration from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador was at least 218,000 in 2017 but could have been as high as about 345,000 between ports of entry.

A caravan of Central American migrants became an issue in last year’s midterm elections after Trump deployed more than 5,000 troops to the U.S.-Mexico border. Reports have suggested the migrants are fleeing violence and, in some cases, economic hardship in their home countries.

Last month, the U.S. signed a “regional compact” with the three Northern Triangle countries aimed at addressing what the agency called “the migration crisis.” It said the agreement included collaboration to combat human trafficking and migrant smuggling, as well as countering gangs and organized crime activities.

About one-quarter to two-thirds of unlawful migrants from the Northern Triangle region might have hired smugglers in recent years, according to Rand.

The Rand study found that human smuggling can involve taxis, charter buses and tractor-trailers that ferry migrants from the Northern Triangle to locations further north on the journey to the U.S.-Mexico border.

The report also said human smugglers “rely on corruption to protect their activities in the form of bribes to officials.” Also, it said “more organized [smuggler] networks can feature transnational organizational structures, but relatively few appear to meet the bar of being ‘self-perpetuating associations.'”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-22  Authors: jeff daniels, adrees latif
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, migrants, smuggling, organizations, rand, primary, border, culprits, human, smugglers, northern, cartels, american, central, triangle, study, report


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Cramer: Trump treats the Fed like a ‘pinata,’ but don’t expect Powell to buckle

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is unlikely to surrender to political pressure and “quit” despite the repeated attacks from President Donald Trump, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday. The president has been treating the central bank like a “pinata,” Cramer said on “Squawk on the Street.” Cramer said he expects Trump may have “got the wrong guy” when he chose Powell to lead the Fed. Trump nominated Powell in November 2017 to succeeded Janet Yellen as central bank chair. But Cramer expressed ren


Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is unlikely to surrender to political pressure and “quit” despite the repeated attacks from President Donald Trump, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday. The president has been treating the central bank like a “pinata,” Cramer said on “Squawk on the Street.” Cramer said he expects Trump may have “got the wrong guy” when he chose Powell to lead the Fed. Trump nominated Powell in November 2017 to succeeded Janet Yellen as central bank chair. But Cramer expressed ren
Cramer: Trump treats the Fed like a ‘pinata,’ but don’t expect Powell to buckle Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-15  Authors: berkeley lovelace jr, scott mlyn
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, dont, buckle, president, street, fed, expect, bank, guy, feds, pinata, central, treats, powell, trump, cramer


Cramer: Trump treats the Fed like a 'pinata,' but don't expect Powell to buckle

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is unlikely to surrender to political pressure and “quit” despite the repeated attacks from President Donald Trump, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday.

The president has been treating the central bank like a “pinata,” Cramer said on “Squawk on the Street.” But Powell “ain’t quittin’. … This is a guy who is doing his job. He’s adjusted to doing his job.”

Cramer spoke after the Wall Street Journal reported that former Fed officials and foreign central bankers worry that Trump’s combative stance toward the U.S. central bank could weaken the institution. They say the president’s approach could erode nonpartisanship in the Fed’s boardroom over time, according to the Journal.

Trump has blamed the Fed’s policies, particularly on interest rates, for previous declines in the stock market and slow economic growth.

On Sunday, the president renewed his attack on the central bank in a tweet, saying, “If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points, and GDP would have been well over 4% instead of 3%.”

Cramer said he expects Trump may have “got the wrong guy” when he chose Powell to lead the Fed. But the president shouldn’t expect Powell to respond to his criticisms now.

Trump nominated Powell in November 2017 to succeeded Janet Yellen as central bank chair. Powell has been a member of the Fed’s board of governors since 2012.

Cramer has also been critical of Powell since the Fed chairman’s remarks on Oct. 3 that the cost of borrowing money was a long way from so-called neutral, sparking concerns about possibly more aggressive Fed tightening.

But Cramer expressed renewed optimism about Powell’s leadership in March when the central bank indicated it would stall interest rate increases for the year.

“I thought that Jay was great,” Cramer said at the time. “It’s not easy to start. You make your rookie mistakes, you come back. He’s a great guy. Anyone who knows him knows that he course corrected.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-15  Authors: berkeley lovelace jr, scott mlyn
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Fed’s Charles Evans tells CNBC rates can stay unchanged into fall of 2020

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said on Monday that he’d be comfortable leaving interest rates alone until autumn 2020 to help ensure sustained inflation in the U.S.”I can see the funds rate being flat and unchanged into the fall of 2020. For me, that’s to help support the inflation outlook and make sure it’s sustainable,” Evans told CNBC’s Steve Liesman. Though Evans said he wouldn’t categorize the Fed’s December 2018 rate increase as a mistake, the central bank official did hig


Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said on Monday that he’d be comfortable leaving interest rates alone until autumn 2020 to help ensure sustained inflation in the U.S.”I can see the funds rate being flat and unchanged into the fall of 2020. For me, that’s to help support the inflation outlook and make sure it’s sustainable,” Evans told CNBC’s Steve Liesman. Though Evans said he wouldn’t categorize the Fed’s December 2018 rate increase as a mistake, the central bank official did hig
Fed’s Charles Evans tells CNBC rates can stay unchanged into fall of 2020 Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-15  Authors: thomas franck
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 2020, economic, inflation, sustained, tells, told, growth, rate, evans, feds, unchanged, fall, charles, suggested, central, fed, rates, stay


Fed's Charles Evans tells CNBC rates can stay unchanged into fall of 2020

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said on Monday that he’d be comfortable leaving interest rates alone until autumn 2020 to help ensure sustained inflation in the U.S.

“I can see the funds rate being flat and unchanged into the fall of 2020. For me, that’s to help support the inflation outlook and make sure it’s sustainable,” Evans told CNBC’s Steve Liesman.

Though Evans said he wouldn’t categorize the Fed’s December 2018 rate increase as a mistake, the central bank official did highlight more muted economic growth estimates and elusive inflation as priorities. The Fed has for years targeted 2% inflation as a level at which the U.S. economy can grow at a healthy clip.

The central bank’s preferred inflation metric, core personal consumption expenditures index, rose to 2% in May 2018, but has had trouble maintaining that level. Some Fed officials that have been concerned about spotty inflation reads — including Evans — have suggested that they’d be comfortable letting prices rise above a 2% pace in times of economic expansion to balance out periods of lower inflation and slower GDP growth.

“I had been thinking that inflation was finally going to be solid, hit 2% on a sustained basis — maybe go over a little bit. That was my projection,” Evans added on “Squawk Box” on Monday. “And on the strength of that I had — as recently as September and December — thought that maybe a couple rate hikes were in our future.”

As a member of the central bank’s policymaking arm in 2019, Evans joined his fellow Fed colleagues in voting to hold the benchmark overnight lending rate steady in March. The Federal Open Market Committee also suggested at its meeting last month that no more interest rate increases will be coming this year.

Evans told CNBC in March that recent concerns about an inverted yield curve — where short-term yields exceed long-term, often viewed as a recession indicator — and general growth angst were enough to make some economists nervous.

“I think anytime the economy decelerates from 3.1% down to 2%, it takes a really sharp-minded focus to kind of go, ‘All right, it’s less than what we had but it’s still pretty good,'” he said at the time.

Though Evans sees economic growth of between 1.75% and 2% this year, he noted in March that the U.S. labor market looked strong and that he wasn’t worried about a recession.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-15  Authors: thomas franck
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell could resign if ‘browbeaten’ enough: Sri Kumar

In an interview with the CBS program “60 Minutes” in March, he was asked whether he listened to the president. When asked if the president could fire him, Powell said, “Well, the law is clear that I have a four-year term. The Fed last raised rates in December and at the time implied two hikes in 2019. However, in early January, Powell said the central bank would be “patient” in its approach to monetary policy. While he sees no rate hikes or rate cuts on the horizon, he thinks that could change s


In an interview with the CBS program “60 Minutes” in March, he was asked whether he listened to the president. When asked if the president could fire him, Powell said, “Well, the law is clear that I have a four-year term. The Fed last raised rates in December and at the time implied two hikes in 2019. However, in early January, Powell said the central bank would be “patient” in its approach to monetary policy. While he sees no rate hikes or rate cuts on the horizon, he thinks that could change s
Fed Chair Jerome Powell could resign if ‘browbeaten’ enough: Sri Kumar Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-15  Authors: michelle fox, jim watson, afp, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, powell, rate, resign, president, bank, central, jerome, chair, sri, rates, kumar, fed, thinks, market, hikes, browbeaten


Fed Chair Jerome Powell could resign if 'browbeaten' enough: Sri Kumar

Powell, however, has dismissed such talk. In an interview with the CBS program “60 Minutes” in March, he was asked whether he listened to the president. He responded, “I don’t comment on the president or any elected official.” When asked if the president could fire him, Powell said, “Well, the law is clear that I have a four-year term. And I fully intend to serve it.”

The Fed last raised rates in December and at the time implied two hikes in 2019. However, in early January, Powell said the central bank would be “patient” in its approach to monetary policy. Then in March, the Federal Open Market Committee suggested no more rate increases will be coming this year.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans told CNBC on Monday that he’d be comfortable leaving interest rates alone until autumn 2020 to help ensure sustained inflation in the U.S. However, he said he wouldn’t categorize the December 2018 rate hike as a mistake.

Sri-Kumar thinks the Fed loses credibility when it doesn’t recognize that it made an error, pointing to Powell’s “pivot” in January, just weeks after the central bank suggested two hikes for 2019.

“Something is wrong with that,” he said. “You can’t expect to be credible under those circumstances.”

In fact, he believes the Fed responded to the markets in shifting its policy this year. And that is not in its edict.

“The Fed’s mandate supposed to be employment and inflation.”

Sri-Kumar contends that if the central bank puts its plan on hold to increase rates and then helps the market go up, it creates a “moral hazard.”

“It tells me the Fed is going to be providing me a ‘Powell put’ and I can keep pushing up equity prices because if there is a correction, the Fed is going to support me.”

However, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, believes the Fed’s change of heart had a lot to do with global economic conditions.

“Think back to how we felt about the world in December and how we think about it now. We certainly are in a different place,” he said on “Power Lunch.” “The Fed has done a good job at being very transparent, but they’re clearly at neutral.”

While he sees no rate hikes or rate cuts on the horizon, he thinks that could change since the Fed is data dependent.

“If the data improve, and that’s what markets would like see, they’ll probably have to raise rates, sooner rather than later,” Hogan said.

The Fed declined to comment on Sri-Kumar’s remarks.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-15  Authors: michelle fox, jim watson, afp, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, powell, rate, resign, president, bank, central, jerome, chair, sri, rates, kumar, fed, thinks, market, hikes, browbeaten


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Turkish central bank needs to be ‘fully independent,’ IMF’s Europe director says

Economic and political developments in Turkey have had investors worried for more than a year now. One of the country’s most immediate needs if it wants to get its house in order is to ensure total independence of its central bank, according to the man who led the bailouts of Greece, Portugal, Iceland and Ukraine during the Great Recession. “So we welcome the increase we’ve seen in interest rates in the last six to seven months, but it’s important that the Turkish central bank be allowed to be f


Economic and political developments in Turkey have had investors worried for more than a year now. One of the country’s most immediate needs if it wants to get its house in order is to ensure total independence of its central bank, according to the man who led the bailouts of Greece, Portugal, Iceland and Ukraine during the Great Recession. “So we welcome the increase we’ve seen in interest rates in the last six to seven months, but it’s important that the Turkish central bank be allowed to be f
Turkish central bank needs to be ‘fully independent,’ IMF’s Europe director says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-14  Authors: natasha turak, chris mcgrath, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, fully, director, central, bank, europe, number, turkish, needs, independence, challenges, monetary, imfs, independent, policy


Turkish central bank needs to be 'fully independent,' IMF's Europe director says

Economic and political developments in Turkey have had investors worried for more than a year now.

One of the country’s most immediate needs if it wants to get its house in order is to ensure total independence of its central bank, according to the man who led the bailouts of Greece, Portugal, Iceland and Ukraine during the Great Recession.

“Turkey faces a number of challenges, and one of them is that the central bank needs to be fully independent so it can continuously assess and tighten policies as circumstances change in a forward-looking manner,” Poul Thomsen, director of the International Monetary Fund’s Europe department, told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C. over the weekend.

“So we welcome the increase we’ve seen in interest rates in the last six to seven months, but it’s important that the Turkish central bank be allowed to be fully independent in its assessment of monetary policy in addition to a number of other challenges on fiscal policy, and more transparency.”

Turkey’s economy is already in recession, rocked last year after fears over government interference into central bank independence, over-leveraged banks, a large current account deficit and a diplomatic spat with the U.S. triggered investor and capital flight. The lira lost 36 percent of its value against the dollar by the end of 2018.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-14  Authors: natasha turak, chris mcgrath, getty images
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Finland is getting harder hit by China trade tensions than Brexit, central bank governor says

Finland is getting harder hit by China trade tensions than Brexit, central bank governor says12:25 PM ET Sat, 13 April 2019Finland is feeling the impact of China trade tensions and a slowdown in Germany more than that of Brexit, but all are contributing to a ‘certain slowdown’ in European growth, Finnish Central Bank Governor Olli Rehn told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.


Finland is getting harder hit by China trade tensions than Brexit, central bank governor says12:25 PM ET Sat, 13 April 2019Finland is feeling the impact of China trade tensions and a slowdown in Germany more than that of Brexit, but all are contributing to a ‘certain slowdown’ in European growth, Finnish Central Bank Governor Olli Rehn told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.
Finland is getting harder hit by China trade tensions than Brexit, central bank governor says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-13  Authors: frederick florin, afp, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, governor, harder, getting, brexit, tensions, central, bank, finland, trade, hit, china, slowdown, washington, told


Finland is getting harder hit by China trade tensions than Brexit, central bank governor says

Finland is getting harder hit by China trade tensions than Brexit, central bank governor says

12:25 PM ET Sat, 13 April 2019

Finland is feeling the impact of China trade tensions and a slowdown in Germany more than that of Brexit, but all are contributing to a ‘certain slowdown’ in European growth, Finnish Central Bank Governor Olli Rehn told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-13  Authors: frederick florin, afp, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, governor, harder, getting, brexit, tensions, central, bank, finland, trade, hit, china, slowdown, washington, told


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Singapore central bank stands pat on monetary policy as growth slows

17 out of 20 economists in a Reuters poll predicted that the central bank would keep monetary policy unchanged. Across Asia, a slowing world economy and abrupt end to Federal Reserve policy tightening have seen markets betting on outright rate cuts or easier policy stance for a growing list of central banks. “GDP growth in the Singapore economy has eased, bringing the level of output closer to its underlying potential. The central bank also on Friday revised down its 2019 core inflation forecast


17 out of 20 economists in a Reuters poll predicted that the central bank would keep monetary policy unchanged. Across Asia, a slowing world economy and abrupt end to Federal Reserve policy tightening have seen markets betting on outright rate cuts or easier policy stance for a growing list of central banks. “GDP growth in the Singapore economy has eased, bringing the level of output closer to its underlying potential. The central bank also on Friday revised down its 2019 core inflation forecast
Singapore central bank stands pat on monetary policy as growth slows Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-12
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, bank, quarter, monetary, pat, stands, global, policy, central, tightening, growth, singapore, economy, slows


Singapore central bank stands pat on monetary policy as growth slows

Singapore’s central bank on Friday kept its monetary settings unchanged after two consecutive rounds of tightening, underscoring policymakers’ concerns about a cooling economy and rising risks to the outlook from slackening global demand.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which manages policy through exchange rate settings rather than interest rates, said it would maintain the slope of the Singapore dollar’s policy band while keeping the width and level at which the band is centered unchanged.

17 out of 20 economists in a Reuters poll predicted that the central bank would keep monetary policy unchanged.

Across Asia, a slowing world economy and abrupt end to Federal Reserve policy tightening have seen markets betting on outright rate cuts or easier policy stance for a growing list of central banks.

“GDP growth in the Singapore economy has eased, bringing the level of output closer to its underlying potential. Despite some pickup in labor costs, inflationary pressures are mild and should remain contained,” MAS said in its semi-annual statement.

MAS increased the slope of the policy band twice last year in efforts to control rising price pressures and strengthen its currency in its first such tightening moves in six years.

The central bank also on Friday revised down its 2019 core inflation forecast to 1 to 2 percent, from 1.5 to 2.5 percent previously.

Preliminary data for first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) confirmed the city-state was experiencing its weakest growth in 2-1/2-years on a year-on-year basis.

From the year ago, GDP grew 1.3 percent in the first quarter, below the 1.5 percent expansion forecast in a Reuters poll.

GDP grew 2.0 percent in the January-March period from the previous three months on an annualized and seasonally adjusted basis, well above an expected 1.2 percent expansion.

Manufacturing, once a key pillar of growth for the city-state, showed a shock 12 percent fall in the first quarter from the quarter ago.

“We expected manufacturing to be down but the print is more severe than we thought,” Selena Ling, OCBC’s head of treasury research said.

The Singapore dollar was broadly unchanged after the decision.

Growth in the affluent city state has been dented over the past year by a Sino-U.S. trade dispute and slowing global demand.

“The uncertainty for the Singapore economy still remains the same, a two-pronged risk – U.S.-Sino trade relations and the maturing of the global electronics cycle,” said Barnabas Gan, Singapore economist at United Overseas Bank.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-12
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Mohamed El-Erian: The Fed has swung from ‘too hawkish’ to ‘too dovish’

The U.S. Federal Reserve has switched from a stance that was “too hawkish” at the end of last year to “too dovish” presently, according to Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz’s chief economic advisor. El-Erian is widely followed for his views on the world economy and markets. “I think they went a little too far,” he said, referring to the Fed. “In the fourth quarter, they certainly were too hawkish … and now I think they have swung too dovish.” Three months later, in March, the Fed decided to hold inter


The U.S. Federal Reserve has switched from a stance that was “too hawkish” at the end of last year to “too dovish” presently, according to Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz’s chief economic advisor. El-Erian is widely followed for his views on the world economy and markets. “I think they went a little too far,” he said, referring to the Fed. “In the fourth quarter, they certainly were too hawkish … and now I think they have swung too dovish.” Three months later, in March, the Fed decided to hold inter
Mohamed El-Erian: The Fed has swung from ‘too hawkish’ to ‘too dovish’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-12  Authors: yen nee lee, david orrell
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, mohamed, end, central, hawkish, fed, fourth, rates, dovish, think, swung, economy, elerian, bank


Mohamed El-Erian: The Fed has swung from 'too hawkish' to 'too dovish'

The U.S. Federal Reserve has switched from a stance that was “too hawkish” at the end of last year to “too dovish” presently, according to Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz’s chief economic advisor.

While such a drastic swing is not expected to hit the U.S. economy in a big way, it has contributed to greater volatility in financial markets globally, he told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Friday. El-Erian is widely followed for his views on the world economy and markets.

“I think they went a little too far,” he said, referring to the Fed. “In the fourth quarter, they certainly were too hawkish … and now I think they have swung too dovish.”

The American central bank last December raised its benchmark funds rate by 25 basis points — the fourth increase in 2018 and the ninth since the Fed started normalizing rates at the end of 2015. Three months later, in March, the Fed decided to hold interest rates steady and indicated that it may not hike rates at all this year.

El-Erian said the U.S. economy “is still in a good place,” so he’s surprised that the central bank appeared to have given up on the option to tweak monetary policy for the rest of the year. In fact, he predicted that the U.S. could grow by 2.5 percent to 3 percent this year. In 2018, the U.S. economy grew by 2.9 percent.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-12  Authors: yen nee lee, david orrell
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Investors should be getting ready for an uptrend — not a downturn

The outlook for the global economy, and in turn financial markets, may not be nearly as bleak as the yield curve suggests. The yield curve is clearly an important indicator to look at, though it does not pinpoint the precise timing of a recession. The yield curve inversion between July 2000 and January 2001, for example, was followed by a U.S. recession between March and November 2001. The yield curve inverted again in July 2006 to May 2007 ahead of the global financial crisis in the autumn of 2


The outlook for the global economy, and in turn financial markets, may not be nearly as bleak as the yield curve suggests. The yield curve is clearly an important indicator to look at, though it does not pinpoint the precise timing of a recession. The yield curve inversion between July 2000 and January 2001, for example, was followed by a U.S. recession between March and November 2001. The yield curve inverted again in July 2006 to May 2007 ahead of the global financial crisis in the autumn of 2
Investors should be getting ready for an uptrend — not a downturn Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-11  Authors: michael strobaek, global cio at credit suisse, johannes eisele, afp, getty images, spencer platt
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, yield, financial, uptrend, recession, curve, getting, ready, major, markets, inversion, downturn, central, structural, look, investors


Investors should be getting ready for an uptrend — not a downturn

We beg to differ. The outlook for the global economy, and in turn financial markets, may not be nearly as bleak as the yield curve suggests.

We estimate the probability of a recession in the U.S. at less than 10% in the next 12 months, less than 20% in two years and just over 30% in three years. Contrary to commonly used models such as that of the New York Fed, our model does not include market data but focuses on structural macro data such as consumption and income balances and central bank accommodation.

The yield curve is clearly an important indicator to look at, though it does not pinpoint the precise timing of a recession. The yield curve inversion between July 2000 and January 2001, for example, was followed by a U.S. recession between March and November 2001. The yield curve inverted again in July 2006 to May 2007 ahead of the global financial crisis in the autumn of 2008.

As the circumstances of each recession are different, it is prudent to look at the bigger picture. First, certain conditions have changed over the past decade: Following the 2008 financial crisis, major central banks introduced significant quantitative easing measures that have moved bond markets and yields to levels where an inversion of the yield curve is more likely now than in previous economic cycles. This diminishes the role of yield curve inversions as a recession bellwether.

Furthermore, other structural macroeconomic factors can potentially signal a recession. It is therefore important to look at labor markets, corporate and consumer debt, the fiscal policy of major central banks, and the state of the Chinese economy, to name just a few. None of these signals currently point to an impending downturn.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-11  Authors: michael strobaek, global cio at credit suisse, johannes eisele, afp, getty images, spencer platt
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, yield, financial, uptrend, recession, curve, getting, ready, major, markets, inversion, downturn, central, structural, look, investors


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IMF’s Lipton warns that volatility hasn’t left markets yet

The IMF’s David Lipton has told CNBC that the current swing to a dovish tone from global central banks should not lead investors to believe that market volatility will just disappear. Markets sold off heavily towards the end of 2018, spooked by the U.S.-Sino trade spat and the suggestion that the Federal Reserve was set to press ahead with interest rate rises. Sluggish data and tepid inflation in 2019 has led central banks around the world to reevaluate their interest rate strategies and stimulu


The IMF’s David Lipton has told CNBC that the current swing to a dovish tone from global central banks should not lead investors to believe that market volatility will just disappear. Markets sold off heavily towards the end of 2018, spooked by the U.S.-Sino trade spat and the suggestion that the Federal Reserve was set to press ahead with interest rate rises. Sluggish data and tepid inflation in 2019 has led central banks around the world to reevaluate their interest rate strategies and stimulu
IMF’s Lipton warns that volatility hasn’t left markets yet Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-11  Authors: david reid
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, left, volatility, imfs, world, led, central, lipton, washington, interest, warns, investors, markets, banks, rate


IMF's Lipton warns that volatility hasn't left markets yet

The IMF’s David Lipton has told CNBC that the current swing to a dovish tone from global central banks should not lead investors to believe that market volatility will just disappear.

Markets sold off heavily towards the end of 2018, spooked by the U.S.-Sino trade spat and the suggestion that the Federal Reserve was set to press ahead with interest rate rises.

Sluggish data and tepid inflation in 2019 has led central banks around the world to reevaluate their interest rate strategies and stimulus policies. That change in rhetoric has led to a bump up for stocks as investors predict a longer period of cheap cash.

“It is correct for capital markets to take their cue from central banks but I think they shouldn’t assume that volatility has gone forever just because central banks are in an accommodative posture,” said Lipton at the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in Washington D.C. on Thursday.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-11  Authors: david reid
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, left, volatility, imfs, world, led, central, lipton, washington, interest, warns, investors, markets, banks, rate


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