Oil prices climb amid Saudi tensions, but demand outlook drags

Crude oil futures rose on Monday as geopolitical tensions over the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist stoked worries about supply, although concerns about the long-term outlook for demand dragged on prices. U.S. crude futures climbed 80 cents, or 1.12 percent, to $72.14 a barrel, extending gains they racked up on Friday after hefty losses on Wednesday and Thursday. “South Korea’s move to stop Iran oil imports is giving the market confidence on prices,” said Chen Kai, head of research


Crude oil futures rose on Monday as geopolitical tensions over the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist stoked worries about supply, although concerns about the long-term outlook for demand dragged on prices. U.S. crude futures climbed 80 cents, or 1.12 percent, to $72.14 a barrel, extending gains they racked up on Friday after hefty losses on Wednesday and Thursday. “South Korea’s move to stop Iran oil imports is giving the market confidence on prices,” said Chen Kai, head of research
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Oil prices climb amid Saudi tensions, but demand outlook drags

Crude oil futures rose on Monday as geopolitical tensions over the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist stoked worries about supply, although concerns about the long-term outlook for demand dragged on prices.

Crude markets were also supported in the wake of data that showed South Korea did not import any oil from Iran in September for the first time in six years, before U.S. sanctions against the Middle Eastern country take effect in November.

Brent crude had risen $1.01, or 1.26 percent, to 81.44 a barrel by 0424 GMT, on track for its biggest daily gain since Oct. 9.

U.S. crude futures climbed 80 cents, or 1.12 percent, to $72.14 a barrel, extending gains they racked up on Friday after hefty losses on Wednesday and Thursday.

“The market has again expressed concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after U.S. and Saudi traded comments over the disappearance of the Saudi journalist, leading to a jump in prices,” Wang Xiao, head of crude research with Guotai Junan Futures, wrote in a research note.

Saudi Arabia has been under pressure since Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent critic of Riyadh and a U.S. resident, disappeared on Oct. 2 after visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

The kingdom would retaliate against possible economic sanctions taken by other states over the case, its state news agency SPA reported on Sunday quoting an official source.

Meanwhile, South Korea in September stopped importing Iranian oil for the first time in years.

“South Korea’s move to stop Iran oil imports is giving the market confidence on prices,” said Chen Kai, head of research at brokerage Shengda Futures.

Lingering geopolitical worries, trade concerns and a weaker economic outlook may pave the way for another week of volatile trading, Chen said, adding that Monday’s recovery in prices was “fragile”.

Putting downward pressure on oil prices, the International Energy Agency, the West’s energy watchdog, said in its monthly report that the market looked “adequately supplied for now” and trimmed its forecasts for world oil demand growth this year and next.

That comes after the secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last week said the group sees the oil market as well supplied and that it was wary of creating a glut next year.


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US crude posts 4% weekly loss, settling at $71.34, dragged down by market sell-off

Brent crude gave back early gains and turned lower Friday after a closely watched forecaster said world oil supply is adequate and the outlook for demand is weakening. Meanwhile, U.S. crude pared gains but stayed in positive territory on a lift from Wall Street. The monthly report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday weighed on crude markets. The IEA said the market looked “adequately supplied for now” and trimmed its forecasts for world oil demand growth this year and next. “The d


Brent crude gave back early gains and turned lower Friday after a closely watched forecaster said world oil supply is adequate and the outlook for demand is weakening. Meanwhile, U.S. crude pared gains but stayed in positive territory on a lift from Wall Street. The monthly report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday weighed on crude markets. The IEA said the market looked “adequately supplied for now” and trimmed its forecasts for world oil demand growth this year and next. “The d
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US crude posts 4% weekly loss, settling at $71.34, dragged down by market sell-off

Brent crude gave back early gains and turned lower Friday after a closely watched forecaster said world oil supply is adequate and the outlook for demand is weakening.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude pared gains but stayed in positive territory on a lift from Wall Street.

The monthly report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday weighed on crude markets. The IEA said the market looked “adequately supplied for now” and trimmed its forecasts for world oil demand growth this year and next.

“The weaker outlook has gotten a raised profile in the market, but there’s potential for a real supply crunch toward the end of this year,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital Management in New York. “The demand outlook is hurt right now because of the situation with the U.S. and China in particular.”


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Oil extends losses as other markets fall, inventories rise

Oil prices fell to two-week lows on Thursday as they extended big losses from the previous session amid a rout in global stock markets, with oil also taking a hit from an industry report showing U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected. Crude inventories climbed by 9.7 million barrels in the week to Oct. 5 to 410.7 million, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 2.6 million barrels. In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, producers have cut daily oil production by roughly 42 percent due


Oil prices fell to two-week lows on Thursday as they extended big losses from the previous session amid a rout in global stock markets, with oil also taking a hit from an industry report showing U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected. Crude inventories climbed by 9.7 million barrels in the week to Oct. 5 to 410.7 million, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 2.6 million barrels. In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, producers have cut daily oil production by roughly 42 percent due
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Oil extends losses as other markets fall, inventories rise

Oil prices fell to two-week lows on Thursday as they extended big losses from the previous session amid a rout in global stock markets, with oil also taking a hit from an industry report showing U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected.

Supply worries also eased as Hurricane Michael likely spared oil assets from significant damage as it smashed into Florida, even as it caused at least one death, injuries and widespread destruction.

Brent crude futures were down $1.22, or 1.5 percent, at $81.87 a barrel by 0237 GMT. They earlier touched their lowest since Sept. 28 at $81.61, after closing 2.2 percent lower on Wednesday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down by $1, or 1.4 percent, at $72.17, having also fallen to their lowest since Sept. 28. They dropped 2.4 percent in the previous session.

Stocks on major world markets slid to a three-month low on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P500 stock index falling more than 3 percent, its biggest one-day decline since February.

Technology shares tumbled on fears of slowing demand and concerns about U.S.-China tensions. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down nearly 4 percent on Thursday.

“Ugly, very very ugly,” Greg McKenna an independent market strategist based near Sydney said in a morning note, referring to declines in global markets including oil.

U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected last week, while gasoline inventories increased and distillate stocks drew, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories climbed by 9.7 million barrels in the week to Oct. 5 to 410.7 million, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 2.6 million barrels.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 2.2 million barrels, API said. [API/S]

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due to release official government inventory data Thursday at 11 a.m. EDT.

In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, producers have cut daily oil production by roughly 42 percent due to the storm, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said. The cuts represent 718,877 barrels per day of oil production.

While production has been cut because of the hurricane, “down time is expected to be brief and Gulf of Mexico output now accounts for a comparatively small portion of total U.S. production,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note.

U.S. oil output is expected to rise 1.39 million bpd to a record 10.74 million bpd, the EIA said in its monthly forecast on Wednesday.


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US crude tumbles 2.4%, settling at $73.17, as oil falls with Wall Street

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down by $1.79, or 2.4 percent, at $73.17 a barrel, after rising nearly 1 percent in the previous session. Brent crude futures were down $1.90, or 2.2 percent, at $83.10 a barrel by 2:29 p.m. U.S. stocks markets fell on Wednesday, weighing on oil prices. Crude futures at times track with equity markets. One in particular will be energy because it’s all about economic expectations,” said Brian LaRose, a technical analyst at United-ICAP.


U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down by $1.79, or 2.4 percent, at $73.17 a barrel, after rising nearly 1 percent in the previous session. Brent crude futures were down $1.90, or 2.2 percent, at $83.10 a barrel by 2:29 p.m. U.S. stocks markets fell on Wednesday, weighing on oil prices. Crude futures at times track with equity markets. One in particular will be energy because it’s all about economic expectations,” said Brian LaRose, a technical analyst at United-ICAP.
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US crude tumbles 2.4%, settling at $73.17, as oil falls with Wall Street

Iran sanctions will become big hit to oil markets, says RBC’s Helima Croft 10 Hours Ago | 02:54

Oil prices dropped more than $1 a barrel on Wednesday as U.S. equity markets broadly fell, but losses were limited as U.S. sanctions restricted Iranian exports.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down by $1.79, or 2.4 percent, at $73.17 a barrel, after rising nearly 1 percent in the previous session.

Brent crude futures were down $1.90, or 2.2 percent, at $83.10 a barrel by 2:29 p.m. ET, after a 1.3 percent gain on Tuesday.

U.S. stocks markets fell on Wednesday, weighing on oil prices. Crude futures at times track with equity markets.

“As long as we continue to see broad-based weakness in the equity sector, that’s going to start spilling over into other areas as well. One in particular will be energy because it’s all about economic expectations,” said Brian LaRose, a technical analyst at United-ICAP.


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Oil prices rise on signs that Iranian crude exports fall further

The Islamic Republic exported 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in that seven-day period, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. An industry source who also tracks exports said October shipments were so far below 1 million bpd. The figure also marks a further fall from 1.6 million bpd in September. Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh on Monday called a Saudi claim that the kingdom could replace Iran’s crude exports “nonsense.” Oil companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico shut down 19 percent of o


The Islamic Republic exported 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in that seven-day period, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. An industry source who also tracks exports said October shipments were so far below 1 million bpd. The figure also marks a further fall from 1.6 million bpd in September. Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh on Monday called a Saudi claim that the kingdom could replace Iran’s crude exports “nonsense.” Oil companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico shut down 19 percent of o
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Oil prices rise on signs that Iranian crude exports fall further

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as more evidence emerged that crude exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, are declining in the run-up to the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions and as a hurricane moved across the Gulf of Mexico.

Brent crude was up 26 cents, 0.3 percent, at $84.17 a barrel by 0244 GMT. On Monday, Brent fell to a low of $82.66, but mostly recovered as investors bet China’s economic stimulus would boost crude demand. Brent rose to a four-year high of $86.74 last week.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down by 24 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $74.53 a barrel. WTI fell to as low as $73.07 in the previous session but closed just 5 cents lower.

Iran’s crude exports fell further in the first week of October, according to tanker data and an industry source, as buyers are seeking alternatives ahead of the start of the U.S. sanctions on Nov. 4 and creating a challenge to other OPEC oil producers as they seek to cover the shortfall.

The Islamic Republic exported 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in that seven-day period, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. An industry source who also tracks exports said October shipments were so far below 1 million bpd.

That is down from at least 2.5 million bpd in April, before President Donald Trump in May withdrew the United States from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and re-imposed sanctions. The figure also marks a further fall from 1.6 million bpd in September.

Last week, Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), announced plans to lift crude output next month to 10.7 million bpd, a record.

“Iranian barrels are declining fast, and Saudi Arabia’s promise to balance will face a reality check in a month’s time,” J.P.Morgan said in an oil market note.

Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh on Monday called a Saudi claim that the kingdom could replace Iran’s crude exports “nonsense.”

“Iran’s oil cannot be replaced by Saudi Arabia nor any other country,” Zanganeh said, according to his ministry’s website.

Oil companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico shut down 19 percent of oil production as Hurricane Michael moved toward eastern Gulf states including Florida.

If current forecasts prove accurate, the hurricane would largely miss major producing assets in the Gulf, analysts said, but any change of track could widen the impact.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019, saying that trade policy tensions and rising import tariffs were taking a toll on commerce while emerging markets struggle with tighter financial conditions and capital outflows.


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China is dramatically cutting US oil imports, analyst says, even though it’s not on tariff list

Oil may not have been on China’s official tariff list, but the country appears to have not imported any U.S. crude in August, according to Bimco’s chief shipping analyst, Peter Sand, who cited U.S. Census data. Bimco is the world’s largest shipowners association with members in more than 120 countries that control around 65 percent of international tonnage. According to Sand’s research, Chinese imports accounted for 23 percent of total U.S. crude exports in 2017 and were averaging 22 percent for


Oil may not have been on China’s official tariff list, but the country appears to have not imported any U.S. crude in August, according to Bimco’s chief shipping analyst, Peter Sand, who cited U.S. Census data. Bimco is the world’s largest shipowners association with members in more than 120 countries that control around 65 percent of international tonnage. According to Sand’s research, Chinese imports accounted for 23 percent of total U.S. crude exports in 2017 and were averaging 22 percent for
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China is dramatically cutting US oil imports, analyst says, even though it's not on tariff list

Oil may not have been on China’s official tariff list, but the country appears to have not imported any U.S. crude in August, according to Bimco’s chief shipping analyst, Peter Sand, who cited U.S. Census data.

Bimco is the world’s largest shipowners association with members in more than 120 countries that control around 65 percent of international tonnage.

According to Sand’s research, Chinese imports accounted for 23 percent of total U.S. crude exports in 2017 and were averaging 22 percent for this year, up until August.

“In the first seven months of 2018 China imported an averaged 10.6 million barrels,” Sand said.


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US crude ends volatile week with 1.5% gain, settling at $74.34, as Iran sanctions loom

Crude futures steadied on Friday after a volatile week, as U.S. unemployment data eased concerns about demand in the world’s top oil consumer ahead of a U.S. sanctions deadline on Iranian oil exports. “A strong economy, low unemployment would suggest the U.S. consumer is going to continue to fair well with higher energy prices,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended Friday’s session up 1 cent at $74.34, rising 1.5 pe


Crude futures steadied on Friday after a volatile week, as U.S. unemployment data eased concerns about demand in the world’s top oil consumer ahead of a U.S. sanctions deadline on Iranian oil exports. “A strong economy, low unemployment would suggest the U.S. consumer is going to continue to fair well with higher energy prices,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended Friday’s session up 1 cent at $74.34, rising 1.5 pe
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US crude ends volatile week with 1.5% gain, settling at $74.34, as Iran sanctions loom

Crude futures steadied on Friday after a volatile week, as U.S. unemployment data eased concerns about demand in the world’s top oil consumer ahead of a U.S. sanctions deadline on Iranian oil exports.

The U.S. Labor Department’s employment report showed that average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent in September, while the unemployment rate fell to near a 49-year low of 3.7 percent.

“A strong economy, low unemployment would suggest the U.S. consumer is going to continue to fair well with higher energy prices,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended Friday’s session up 1 cent at $74.34, rising 1.5 percent for the week.

International benchmark Brent crude oil futures was down 20 cents a barrel at $84.38 by 2:25 p.m. ET. On Wednesday, the global benchmark hit a late 2014 high of $86.74.


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Oil falls as Saudi and Russia quietly agree to output rise, US stocks swell

Brent crude oil futures were trading at $85.85 per barrel at 0104 GMT, down 44 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $76.11 a barrel. U.S. crude oil stocks rose by nearly 8 million barrels last week to about 404 million barrels, the biggest increase since March 2017, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production remained at a record-high of 11.1 milli


Brent crude oil futures were trading at $85.85 per barrel at 0104 GMT, down 44 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $76.11 a barrel. U.S. crude oil stocks rose by nearly 8 million barrels last week to about 404 million barrels, the biggest increase since March 2017, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production remained at a record-high of 11.1 milli
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Oil falls as Saudi and Russia quietly agree to output rise, US stocks swell

Oil prices on Thursday fell from four-year highs reached the previous session, pressured by rising U.S. inventories and after sources said Russia and Saudi Arabia struck a private deal in September to raise crude output.

Brent crude oil futures were trading at $85.85 per barrel at 0104 GMT, down 44 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close.

Brent on Wednesday hit a four-year high of $86.74 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $76.11 a barrel.

“Data for last week showed a much more significant than expected … build in U.S. commercial crude (inventories), which generally suggests that oil prices should tumble,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage Oanda in Singapore.

U.S. crude oil stocks rose by nearly 8 million barrels last week to about 404 million barrels, the biggest increase since March 2017, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday.

U.S. weekly Midwest refinery utilization rates dropped to 78.9 percent, their lowest since October 2015, according to the data.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production remained at a record-high of 11.1 million barrels per day (bpd).

“This on top of the other big news of the day from Riyadh that … Saudi Arabia and Russia will boost output,” Innes said.

Russia and Saudi Arabia struck a private deal in September to raise oil output to cool rising prices, Reuters reported on Wednesday, before consulting with other producers, including the rest of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Russia’s and Saudi Arabia’s actions come as markets have heated up ahead of U.S. sanctions against Iran’s oil sector, which are set to kick in from Nov. 4, and which many analysts expect to knock around 1.5 million bpd of supply out of markets.

On the demand side, there is increasing concern that high oil prices and weakening emerging market currencies are creating a toxic inflationary mix that could erode fuel demand and economic growth.

“We have been taking a very close look at the demand signals in the market, and what we have been seeing is not good, JBC Energy said on Wednesday in a note to clients.

The energy consultancy said it had revised its oil demand forecast downwards amid Brent prices above $80 and diving currencies in many emerging markets, as well as burgeoning product stocks and the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade dispute.

“We are not talking about cosmetic changes either. We have cut our forecast for 2018 demand growth by a whopping 300,000 bpd to below 1.1 million bpd,” it said.


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Brent crude steadies near $85 as Saudi raises oil output towards record

Oil traded below a four-year high on Wednesday as top exporter Saudi Arabia said it increased output to near a record high and after Reuters reported that Russia and Saudi Arabia had struck a private deal in September to pump more. Crude still found support from expectations that U.S. sanctions on Iran will further cut the OPEC country’s oil exports, tightening supplies and straining the ability of other major producers. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 7 cents to $84.73 a barrel by 9:21


Oil traded below a four-year high on Wednesday as top exporter Saudi Arabia said it increased output to near a record high and after Reuters reported that Russia and Saudi Arabia had struck a private deal in September to pump more. Crude still found support from expectations that U.S. sanctions on Iran will further cut the OPEC country’s oil exports, tightening supplies and straining the ability of other major producers. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 7 cents to $84.73 a barrel by 9:21
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Brent crude steadies near $85 as Saudi raises oil output towards record

Oil traded below a four-year high on Wednesday as top exporter Saudi Arabia said it increased output to near a record high and after Reuters reported that Russia and Saudi Arabia had struck a private deal in September to pump more.

Crude still found support from expectations that U.S. sanctions on Iran will further cut the OPEC country’s oil exports, tightening supplies and straining the ability of other major producers.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 7 cents to $84.73 a barrel by 9:21 a.m. ET (1321 GMT), reversing an earlier gain. The price hit $85.45 on Monday, its highest since November 2014. U.S. crude was down 5 cents at $75.18.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 6 cents at $75.17 a barrel.


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The oil market ‘fever’ pushing prices toward $100 won’t break soon

That fever will persist until the market determines how many Iranian barrels will come off the market and whether Saudi Arabia is able to step up to fill the gap, Kilduff said. He believes the uncertainty could push U.S. crude prices up another $10 a barrel to $85, until new supply potentially tamps down the cost early next year. Oil prices rallied despite a large 8-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude stockpiles and confirmation of rising output from Saudi Arabia. “It’s going to be a rough win


That fever will persist until the market determines how many Iranian barrels will come off the market and whether Saudi Arabia is able to step up to fill the gap, Kilduff said. He believes the uncertainty could push U.S. crude prices up another $10 a barrel to $85, until new supply potentially tamps down the cost early next year. Oil prices rallied despite a large 8-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude stockpiles and confirmation of rising output from Saudi Arabia. “It’s going to be a rough win
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The oil market 'fever' pushing prices toward $100 won't break soon

“If you have a sustainable loss in Iran, $90 to $100 is a potential outcome here, but we don’t know at this point what’s going to happen to Iran”

That has pushed oil prices higher and left some analysts saying they cannot rule out a rally to $100 a barrel. There are too many questions about how strictly the Trump administration will enforce the sanctions, how many oil importers will ignore the penalties, and how quickly a group of producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia can turn on the taps.

“There’s sort of a fever building in the market right now about what the landscape is going to look like in terms of supply and demand,” said John Kilduff, founding partner of energy hedge fund Again Capital.

That fever will persist until the market determines how many Iranian barrels will come off the market and whether Saudi Arabia is able to step up to fill the gap, Kilduff said. He believes the uncertainty could push U.S. crude prices up another $10 a barrel to $85, until new supply potentially tamps down the cost early next year.

U.S. crude ended Wednesday’s trading session at $76.41, climbing more than $1 a barrel to its highest since November 2014.

Oil prices rallied despite a large 8-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude stockpiles and confirmation of rising output from Saudi Arabia. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih announced on Wednesday that the kingdom pumped 10.7 million barrels per day this month, near a national record, and will hike output again in November.

“I think the Saudis will ultimately step up, but they’re going to be stingy at first,” Kilduff told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. “It’s going to be a rough winter for consumers at the gas pump, at the heating oil tank, the airlines. Everybody.”

Saudi Arabia and OPEC have historically waited for supply shortages to develop before raising output, wary that a premature production hike could tip the market into oversupply. But that is cold comfort given the brisk decline in Iran’s exports to date.

The drop has exceeded expectations, with Iranian exports down about 650,000 barrels a day since April, according to Goldman Sachs.

Jeff Currie, Goldman’s global head of commodities research, said prices are rising because a lot of investors and oil consumers are buying oil contracts to hedge against the risk of a major supply disruption. At the same time, there aren’t enough sellers in the market to relieve the upward pressure on prices.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-03  Authors: tom dichristopher, -jeff currie, goldman sachs global head of commodities research
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wont, prices, break, saudi, output, oil, fever, kilduff, pushing, soon, market, 100, supply, arabia, crude, going


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