Gold steadies near 5-month peak on subdued dollar

Gold prices were steady on Monday, having touched a fresh five-month peak early in the session, as the dollar weakened after a soft U.S. jobs report fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates sooner than expected. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates at its Dec. 18-19 meeting, but the focus is on how many rate hikes will follow in 2019. Gold tends to gain when rate hike expectations recede because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding


Gold prices were steady on Monday, having touched a fresh five-month peak early in the session, as the dollar weakened after a soft U.S. jobs report fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates sooner than expected. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates at its Dec. 18-19 meeting, but the focus is on how many rate hikes will follow in 2019. Gold tends to gain when rate hike expectations recede because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding
Gold steadies near 5-month peak on subdued dollar Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-10  Authors: simon dawson, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, subdued, prices, fed, gold, slipped, analyst, jobs, near, ounce, peak, dollar, interest, rates, 5month, steadies


Gold steadies near 5-month peak on subdued dollar

Gold prices were steady on Monday, having touched a fresh five-month peak early in the session, as the dollar weakened after a soft U.S. jobs report fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates sooner than expected.

Spot gold inched up 0.1 percent to $1,248.59 per ounce, as of 0813 GMT, after hitting its highest since July 11 at $1,250.55 earlier in the session.

U.S. gold futures rose 0.1 percent to $1,253.4 per ounce.

Weak data points from the United States have been putting pressure on the dollar index which is proving to be positive for gold, said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai, adding that: “we expect a resistance level of $1,270 before the upcoming Fed meet.”

The dollar slid against the euro and the yen after data showed U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 155,000 jobs last month, below economists’ median forecast of 200,000 jobs, and the wage increase was softer than expected.

Some Fed policymakers have struck a cautious tone about the economic outlook, possibly flagging a turning point in the monetary policy.

The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates at its Dec. 18-19 meeting, but the focus is on how many rate hikes will follow in 2019.

Gold tends to gain when rate hike expectations recede because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Lower interest rates also tend to weigh on U.S. yields and the dollar, in which gold is priced.

“There is also some safe-haven demand coming back in gold,” said Argonaut Securities analyst Helen Lau.

Global stocks extended their slump on worries over slowing growth and fears that a fresh flare-up in tensions between U.S. and China could quash chances of a trade deal.

“A number of tailwinds are in place for it (gold) to move significantly higher during the month including falling U.S. interest rates, a declining or at least a stalling dollar, wobbly U.S. equity markets,” INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said in a note.

“Over the course of December, we see prices trading between $1,230-$1,285 per ounce.”

Meanwhile, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.20 percent to 759.73 tonnes on Friday.

Spot gold may rise into a range of $1,258-$1,266 per ounce, as it has broken a resistance at $1,245, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Among other precious metals, spot silver was down 0.2 percent at $14.59 per ounce, while palladium slipped 0.6 percent to $1,216.52.

Platinum edged 0.2 percent higher to $791.40 per ounce. Prices had slipped to their lowest since Sept. 12 at $779 in the previous session.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-10  Authors: simon dawson, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, subdued, prices, fed, gold, slipped, analyst, jobs, near, ounce, peak, dollar, interest, rates, 5month, steadies


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Dollar little changed after biggest weekly loss in three months

The dollar consolidated losses on Monday after posting its biggest weekly drop in more than three months last week as weak U.S. data undercut expectations of more interest rate increases in the world’s biggest economy. But weak data in recent weeks has clouded the currency’s prospects for next year. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was flat after falling 0.8 percent last week, its biggest weekly drop since late August. In London, Theresa May faces an internal revolt against her Brexit


The dollar consolidated losses on Monday after posting its biggest weekly drop in more than three months last week as weak U.S. data undercut expectations of more interest rate increases in the world’s biggest economy. But weak data in recent weeks has clouded the currency’s prospects for next year. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was flat after falling 0.8 percent last week, its biggest weekly drop since late August. In London, Theresa May faces an internal revolt against her Brexit
Dollar little changed after biggest weekly loss in three months Cached Page below :
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Dollar little changed after biggest weekly loss in three months

The dollar consolidated losses on Monday after posting its biggest weekly drop in more than three months last week as weak U.S. data undercut expectations of more interest rate increases in the world’s biggest economy.

Widening interest rate differentials between the United States and the rest of the world, driven by a confident U.S. Federal Reserve, has fuelled an unlikely dollar rally this year. But weak data in recent weeks has clouded the currency’s prospects for next year.

U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 155,000 jobs last month, below a median forecast of 200,000 jobs, and the wage increase was weaker than expected, even though its annual rise remained near the highest level in almost a decade.

Apart from weak data, some Fed policymakers have struck a cautious tone about the economic outlook, possibly flagging a turning point in its monetary policy and lowering the expectations of U.S. rate hikes priced into money markets.

Futures markets are now pricing in only a 44 percent chance of a U.S. rate increase next year compared with nearly 80 percent last Monday as the U.S. bond yield curve has flattened.

“Fed fund expectations are dropping like a stone and that is a big obstacle for the dollar, though there is plenty of event risk out there this week that will give plenty of thought for dollar bears,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, an FX strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was flat after falling 0.8 percent last week, its biggest weekly drop since late August.

The euro led gains, rising 0.34 percent at $1.1470 though market traders said currency markets will be in a wait-and-watch mode.

French President Emmanuel Macron will address the country at 2000 Paris time (1900 GMT) on Monday as he seeks to “yellow vest” anti-government protesters that have wreaked havoc in Paris during the weekend.

In London, Theresa May faces an internal revolt against her Brexit deal before a vote in the parliament on Tuesday. May plans to push ahead with the vote, but senior lawmakers in her own party put pressure on her to go back to Brussels and seek a better offer.

A rejection could throw plans for Britain’s exit into turmoil and leave her own political future hanging in the balance. Against the dollar, the British pound was flat at $1.2720.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-10
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‘Short the S&P 500’ and two other top 2019 ideas, according to Bank of America technician

“Going back long term, the dollar versus the S&P as a ratio has a few significant bottoms that end up leading to a period where the dollar severely outperformed the S&P 500,” Ciana said on CNBC’s “Futures Now” on Thursday. For example, in 2000, the ratio found a bottom before the dot-com bust sent equities tumbling and the dollar soaring. It was a similar setup in 2008 and 2014-15, said Ciana, BofA’s chief global fixed income technical strategist. “What ends up happening in these time frames is


“Going back long term, the dollar versus the S&P as a ratio has a few significant bottoms that end up leading to a period where the dollar severely outperformed the S&P 500,” Ciana said on CNBC’s “Futures Now” on Thursday. For example, in 2000, the ratio found a bottom before the dot-com bust sent equities tumbling and the dollar soaring. It was a similar setup in 2008 and 2014-15, said Ciana, BofA’s chief global fixed income technical strategist. “What ends up happening in these time frames is
‘Short the S&P 500’ and two other top 2019 ideas, according to Bank of America technician Cached Page below :
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Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, underperforms, versus, tumbling, ratio, america, bank, technician, according, dollar, sp, 500, ends, ciana, ideas, short, thursdayfor, 2019


'Short the S&P 500' and two other top 2019 ideas, according to Bank of America technician

“Going back long term, the dollar versus the S&P as a ratio has a few significant bottoms that end up leading to a period where the dollar severely outperformed the S&P 500,” Ciana said on CNBC’s “Futures Now” on Thursday.

For example, in 2000, the ratio found a bottom before the dot-com bust sent equities tumbling and the dollar soaring. It was a similar setup in 2008 and 2014-15, said Ciana, BofA’s chief global fixed income technical strategist.

“Now we’re having another one right in here,” he added. “What ends up happening in these time frames is the dollar ends up outperforming while the S&P 500 of course underperforms. That means, buy dollar, sell stocks.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-09  Authors: keris lahiff, spencer platt, getty images, tnwa photography, source, david a grogan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, underperforms, versus, tumbling, ratio, america, bank, technician, according, dollar, sp, 500, ends, ciana, ideas, short, thursdayfor, 2019


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Gold inches higher as dollar dips amid risk aversion

Gold edged higher on Thursday as growing risk aversion weighed on the dollar, while palladium held ground at a premium to the bullion. Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,239.86 per ounce, as of 0429 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were 0.2 percent higher at $1,244.9 per ounce. “Markets are trying to consolidate, trying to push up higher for now,” said Benjamin Lu, a commodities analyst with Phillip Futures. The dollar declined against the safe-haven yen as a spike in risk aversion pressured equitie


Gold edged higher on Thursday as growing risk aversion weighed on the dollar, while palladium held ground at a premium to the bullion. Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,239.86 per ounce, as of 0429 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were 0.2 percent higher at $1,244.9 per ounce. “Markets are trying to consolidate, trying to push up higher for now,” said Benjamin Lu, a commodities analyst with Phillip Futures. The dollar declined against the safe-haven yen as a spike in risk aversion pressured equitie
Gold inches higher as dollar dips amid risk aversion Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-06  Authors: getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, palladium, dollar, meeting, higher, analyst, dips, yields, hike, gold, rate, aversion, inches, ounce, risk, amid, lu


Gold inches higher as dollar dips amid risk aversion

Gold edged higher on Thursday as growing risk aversion weighed on the dollar, while palladium held ground at a premium to the bullion.

Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,239.86 per ounce, as of 0429 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were 0.2 percent higher at $1,244.9 per ounce.

“Markets are trying to consolidate, trying to push up higher for now,” said Benjamin Lu, a commodities analyst with Phillip Futures.

A balance between a host of factors such as a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December, uncertainty about trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, and a flattening yield curve has helped create a premium for the bullion, Lu added.

Fed policymakers will gather at a Dec. 18-19 meeting, at which the central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates.

“Although a rate hike is already priced in, markets will be closely watching the meeting for clues on rate hike timings in 2019,” said Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM, adding that: “if the meeting echoes a similar message to (Chairman Jerome) Powell’s dovish shift, gold has the potential to shine into 2019.”

The dollar declined against the safe-haven yen as a spike in risk aversion pressured equities and U.S. Treasury yields. The spread between the two-year and five-year Treasury yields inverted this week and the two-year/10-year spread was at its flattest in more than a decade amid a sharp fall in long-term rates.

“An yield curve inversion indicates higher borrowing cost in short term, so for safe-haven assets in the longer run it’s going to be very positive,” Phillip Futures’ Lu said.

Spot gold may test a resistance at $1,245 per ounce, a break above which could lead to a gain into a range of $1,253-$1,258, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Meanwhile, palladium continued to be more valuable than gold after outshining the yellow metal for the first time since 2002 on Wednesday, with prices soaring by around 50 percent in less than four months to record levels.

Spot palladium rose 0.1 percent to $1,245.00 per ounce, hovering near its record high hit in the previous session.

The market now awaits Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls data for November, which is expected to show unemployment remains at 3.7 percent.

“Investors are seen adopting a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. jobs report which could offer insight over the health of the U.S. labour force,” said FXTM’s Otunuga.

Amongst other metals, silver fell 0.7 percent to $14.41 per ounce, while platinum extended losses into a third session, declining 0.7 percent to $795.00 per ounce.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-06  Authors: getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, palladium, dollar, meeting, higher, analyst, dips, yields, hike, gold, rate, aversion, inches, ounce, risk, amid, lu


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Dollar dips versus yen as growth concerns shake confidence

The dollar fell against the yen on Thursday as growing investor aversion to riskier assets hit equities and pushed down U.S. Treasury yields. Global equity markets have been shaken and the dollar fell this week after an inversion in a part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve triggered market concerns about economic growth. U.S. Treasury yields fell, pressuring the dollar. “Lower Treasury yields are driving the dollar lower against the yen. The euro lost 0.42 percent to 127.85 yen, the Australian do


The dollar fell against the yen on Thursday as growing investor aversion to riskier assets hit equities and pushed down U.S. Treasury yields. Global equity markets have been shaken and the dollar fell this week after an inversion in a part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve triggered market concerns about economic growth. U.S. Treasury yields fell, pressuring the dollar. “Lower Treasury yields are driving the dollar lower against the yen. The euro lost 0.42 percent to 127.85 yen, the Australian do
Dollar dips versus yen as growth concerns shake confidence Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-06  Authors: matt cardy, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, growth, dollar, concerns, meeting, lower, treasury, versus, dips, confidence, yields, fell, yen, yield, week, shake, market


Dollar dips versus yen as growth concerns shake confidence

The dollar fell against the yen on Thursday as growing investor aversion to riskier assets hit equities and pushed down U.S. Treasury yields.

The U.S. currency dropped 0.45 percent to 112.68 yen, handing back its modest gains made overnight.

Global equity markets have been shaken and the dollar fell this week after an inversion in a part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve triggered market concerns about economic growth.

Adding to the jitters on Thursday was the arrest in Canada of a top executive of Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies, fanning fears of a flare-up in tensions between China and the United States just as the two sides are supposed to be resuming trade negotiations.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 1.93 percent and Japan’s Nikkei lost more than 2 percent.

U.S. Treasury yields fell, pressuring the dollar.

“Lower Treasury yields are driving the dollar lower against the yen. It is difficult to pinpoint how much funds investors have transferred from equities to bonds in the recent risk aversion and it is too early to call a bottom for Treasury yields,” said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.

The 10-year Treasury yield last stood at 2.8829 percent.

Signals from the Federal Reserve last week that it may be nearing an end to its three-year rate hiking cycle have helped trigger the slide in Treasury yields.

The spread between the two-year and five-year Treasury yields inverted this week and the two-year/10-year spread was at its flattest in more than a decade amid a sharp fall in long-term rates.

A flatter curve is seen as an indicator of a slowing economy, with lower longer-dated yields suggesting a potential recession down the road.

“The dollar could remain under pressure until this month’s Fed meeting as long-term Treasury yields may not be able to mount a rebound until the market sees the Fed’s stance on policy and the economy,” said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

“The recent reaction to the U.S. yield curve inversion appears a little hysterical, but the dollar will not be given the all clear sign until the Fed meeting is hurdled.”

Fed policymakers are still widely expected to raise interest rates again at their Dec 18-19 meeting, but the market focus is on how many rate hikes will follow in 2019.

The yen, often sought in times of market unrest, made strides against other peers as well.

The euro lost 0.42 percent to 127.85 yen, the Australian dollar slumped 1.02 percent to 81.44 yen and the pound fell 0.55 percent to 143.33 yen.

The euro was little changed at $1.1346 after retreating from this week’s high of $1.1419 scaled on Tuesday.

The Australian dollar, sensitive to swings in risk sentiment, was down 0.58 percent at $0.7226.

The Aussie was already on a shaky footing after shedding nearly 1 percent the previous day on weaker-than-expected third quarter Australian gross domestic product data.

The pound was a shade lower at $1.2723.

Sterling had sunk to a 17-month low of $1.2659 at one point on Tuesday after parliamentary setbacks for Prime Minister Theresa May.

— CNBC contributed to this report.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-06  Authors: matt cardy, getty images
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Gold pulls back from 5-week high as dollar edges higher

Gold prices dipped on Wednesday, retreating from a more than five-week top hit in the previous session, as the dollar crawled higher. “Gold is mainly tracking the U.S. dollar,” said Brian Lan, managing director at dealer GoldSilver Central in Singapore. “Today’s move in gold prices is a correction because yesterday prices were up quite a bit.” The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest point since mid-September. $1,242.5 is the level gold has to test before it goes up to the next le


Gold prices dipped on Wednesday, retreating from a more than five-week top hit in the previous session, as the dollar crawled higher. “Gold is mainly tracking the U.S. dollar,” said Brian Lan, managing director at dealer GoldSilver Central in Singapore. “Today’s move in gold prices is a correction because yesterday prices were up quite a bit.” The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest point since mid-September. $1,242.5 is the level gold has to test before it goes up to the next le
Gold pulls back from 5-week high as dollar edges higher Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-05  Authors: simon dawson, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, treasury, dollar, high, level, economic, yield, higher, gold, ounce, edges, 5week, trade, prices, pulls, session


Gold pulls back from 5-week high as dollar edges higher

Gold prices dipped on Wednesday, retreating from a more than five-week top hit in the previous session, as the dollar crawled higher.

Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,234.71 per ounce as of 0422 GMT, after hitting its highest since Oct. 26 at $1,241.86 an ounce in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were down 0.5 percent at $1,240.2 per ounce.

“Gold is mainly tracking the U.S. dollar,” said Brian Lan, managing director at dealer GoldSilver Central in Singapore.

“Today’s move in gold prices is a correction because yesterday prices were up quite a bit.”

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, edged up about 0.1 percent, even though the U.S. currency was under pressure as declining Treasury yields raised concerns over economic growth.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest point since mid-September. The spread between the 10-year yield over its two-year counterpart also shrank to the smallest since the start of the financial crisis in January 2008, signalling to some investors an approaching economic slowdown.

Concerns about weaker growth have stoked bets that the Federal Reserve will end its campaign to raise interest rates sooner than previously thought, analysts said.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last Wednesday that U.S. interest rates were nearing neutral levels, which markets interpreted as signalling a slowdown in rate hikes.

Asian equities dipped in line with Wall Street as resurgent trade concerns stoked worries about global economic growth.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday held out the possibility of an extension of the 90-day trade truce with China, but warned he would revert to tariffs if the two sides could not resolve their differences.

“Normally you would expect a better outing from gold given the absolute beatdown in stocks, but this is a baby step for the precious metal,” said Amit Kumar Gupta, portfolio management services head at Adroit Financial Services in New Delhi.

“Gold at this point will correct a little more. $1,242.5 is the level gold has to test before it goes up to the next level. The downside we are looking at is $1,230,” GoldSilver Central’s Lan said.

Meanwhile, palladium retreated 0.5 percent to $1,226.49 per ounce, trading in close proximity to the yellow metal and after notching its record high hit on Tuesday.

Spot silver fell 0.4 percent to $14.46 per ounce, while platinum was 1.8 percent lower at $788.90 per ounce after hitting its lowest level since Sept. 17 at $787.5 earlier in the session.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-05  Authors: simon dawson, bloomberg, getty images
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Dollar stays defensive on Treasury yield curve inversion worry

The dollar trimmed some of its recent losses but remained under pressure on Wednesday, as an inversion in part of the Treasury yield curve raises concerns about a potential U.S. slowdown. Investors were nervous over an inversion of the yield curve between three-year and five-year U.S. Treasury notes and between two-year and five-year notes which limited the dollar’s gains. These were the first parts of the Treasury yield curve to invert since the financial crisis, excluding very short-dated debt


The dollar trimmed some of its recent losses but remained under pressure on Wednesday, as an inversion in part of the Treasury yield curve raises concerns about a potential U.S. slowdown. Investors were nervous over an inversion of the yield curve between three-year and five-year U.S. Treasury notes and between two-year and five-year notes which limited the dollar’s gains. These were the first parts of the Treasury yield curve to invert since the financial crisis, excluding very short-dated debt
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Dollar stays defensive on Treasury yield curve inversion worry

The dollar trimmed some of its recent losses but remained under pressure on Wednesday, as an inversion in part of the Treasury yield curve raises concerns about a potential U.S. slowdown.

The Australian dollar slumped more than half a percent against the greenback as disappointing economic data further dimmed the chance of a rise in rates. The Aussie moved sharply off a four-month top of $0.7394 hit early in the week.

Investors were nervous over an inversion of the yield curve between three-year and five-year U.S. Treasury notes and between two-year and five-year notes which limited the dollar’s gains.

These were the first parts of the Treasury yield curve to invert since the financial crisis, excluding very short-dated debt.

“In the initial phase of the inversion of the yield curve markets are worried about whether there’ll be a recession,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.

“They react more aggressively to weak data than to strong data,” Yamamoto said. “I think the dollar can be in correction-mode in a yield-curve inversion environment.”

Against a basket of six key rivals, the dollar edged up 0.1 percent to 97.092, trimming this week’s losses to 0.2 percent. It was 0.6 percent off a 17-month peak of 97.693 touched on Nov. 12.

Interest rate hikes have sent short-dated yields higher, even as slowing economic growth expectations have kept longer-dated yields down.

The dollar has been under pressure since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last Wednesday that U.S. interest rates were nearing neutral levels, which markets interpreted as signalling a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes.

Ayako Sera, market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, said there is proof that an inversion between three-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes precedes a recession.

The spread between three-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes was 50 basis points as of Tuesday, its smallest since Oct. 2007.

“The Federal Reserve may slow down the pace with which it hikes interest rates, but it won’t lower rates yet, so the likelihood there will be an inversion of these is low,” Sera said.

The euro edged down 0.1 percent to $1.1328 after also slipping 0.1 percent during the previous session.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-05
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‘We’ve got a path to finding an exit on the trade war highway,’ Wall Street bull Art Hogan says

B. Riley FBR’s Art Hogan sees the weekend’s truce between the U.S. and China on trade as a market driver for the next four weeks. “That’s going to be helpful.” That’s about 4 percent away from Hogan’s S&P year-end target of 2,900. I think that continues the more better news we get on trade,” said Hogan. Yet his 2019 S&P year-end target is 3,250, a 15 percent jump from current levels.


B. Riley FBR’s Art Hogan sees the weekend’s truce between the U.S. and China on trade as a market driver for the next four weeks. “That’s going to be helpful.” That’s about 4 percent away from Hogan’s S&P year-end target of 2,900. I think that continues the more better news we get on trade,” said Hogan. Yet his 2019 S&P year-end target is 3,250, a 15 percent jump from current levels.
‘We’ve got a path to finding an exit on the trade war highway,’ Wall Street bull Art Hogan says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: stephanie landsman, brendan mcdermid, getty images, loic venance, afp, monica almeida, kcna, thomas barwick getty images, source, lawrence mcdonald
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, highway, street, dollar, wall, war, hogan, path, finding, weve, better, think, thats, tariffs, yearend, going, trade, exit, sp


'We've got a path to finding an exit on the trade war highway,' Wall Street bull Art Hogan says

Investors can stop worrying about a major obstacle blocking a year-end rally, according to one of Wall Street’s biggest bulls.

B. Riley FBR’s Art Hogan sees the weekend’s truce between the U.S. and China on trade as a market driver for the next four weeks.

“China, the rhetoric, really was heating up over the course of October and November, and now it feels as though we’ve got a path to finding an exit on the trade war highway,” the chief market strategist said Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “That’s going to be helpful.”

Stocks were down Tuesday after kicking off the month with strong gains. The Dow on Monday grabbed 287.97 points to close at 25,826.43 and the S&P 500 gained 30.20 points to close at 2,790.37. That’s about 4 percent away from Hogan’s S&P year-end target of 2,900.

Also, in the past two days, the dollar is down 1.75 percent against the Chinese yuan. On Sept. 11, the dollar also fell after a report indicated senior U.S. officials were looking to jump-start trade talks with China

“Notice how much the dollar has come off every time we get better news on trade. I think that continues the more better news we get on trade,” said Hogan. “And, I think a weaker dollar here is certainly going to help our multinationals and help our concerns about emerging markets.”

Despite his overall optimism, Hogan says economic and earnings growth will slow down next year.

“We’re not going to duplicate the sugar high that we had in 2018,” Hogan said, adding that the year-old fiscal stimulus will no longer appear in the data comparisons. Plus, he believes the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates three more times in the next 13 months, a move that will tilt in favor of more conservative growth.

Yet his 2019 S&P year-end target is 3,250, a 15 percent jump from current levels.

“The good news we don’t have to factor in tariffs or at least the magnitude of tariffs we thought we’d have to factor in,” Hogan said. “We’re in a better place than we were a week ago.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: stephanie landsman, brendan mcdermid, getty images, loic venance, afp, monica almeida, kcna, thomas barwick getty images, source, lawrence mcdonald
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Dollar weakens as US bond yields fall, trade tariff postponement supports riskier currencies

The dollar slipped in Asia on Tuesday as U.S. Treasury yields fell to three-month lows, a sign some investors were wagering the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of its rate hikes. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.94 percent on Tuesday, its lowest level since mid September. “Falling U.S. yields are a negative for the dollar, especially versus the major currencies,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at NAB. Catril added that U.S. Treasury yields are near crucial technical


The dollar slipped in Asia on Tuesday as U.S. Treasury yields fell to three-month lows, a sign some investors were wagering the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of its rate hikes. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.94 percent on Tuesday, its lowest level since mid September. “Falling U.S. yields are a negative for the dollar, especially versus the major currencies,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at NAB. Catril added that U.S. Treasury yields are near crucial technical
Dollar weakens as US bond yields fall, trade tariff postponement supports riskier currencies Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: tyrone siu
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, dollar, yuan, tariff, weakens, fall, yield, treasury, fed, versus, rate, fell, postponement, yields, riskier, currencies, supports


Dollar weakens as US bond yields fall, trade tariff postponement supports riskier currencies

The dollar slipped in Asia on Tuesday as U.S. Treasury yields fell to three-month lows, a sign some investors were wagering the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of its rate hikes.

The weakness in the dollar comes against the backdrop of a temporary truce in the US-China trade conflict, which has bolstered investor confidence in riskier currencies versus the safe-haven greenback.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.94 percent on Tuesday, its lowest level since mid September. The difference in yield between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year tightened to its smallest since July 2007.

The two-10-year yield curve is a key focus for investors as an inversion is seen as predictor of a U.S. recession. A yield curve is said to be inverted when yields on longer-dated maturity bonds are lower than shorter-dated maturity bonds.

The yield curve has flattened as continuing interest rate hikes send short-dated yields higher, while longer-dated Treasuries are supported by tepid inflation and slowing global growth.

“Falling U.S. yields are a negative for the dollar, especially versus the major currencies,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at NAB.

Catril added that U.S. Treasury yields are near crucial technical support levels, a break of which could add further pressure on U.S. yields and the dollar.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, was off 0.23 percent at 96.8.

The dollar had been supported for most of 2018 by a robust U.S. economy and a relatively hawkish Fed, which is widely expected to raise its policy interest rate later this month.

Markets have priced in an 87 percent probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s Dec. 18-19 meeting.

The dollar came under pressure last week when the market took comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as signalling a slower pace of rate hikes.

A more dovish tone from the Fed last week has led markets to question how many times the central bank will hike rates in 2019.

“Given data remains strong, we think the Fed will hike twice in 2019 and that’s more than what the market is pricing in right now…we remain moderately bullish on the dollar,” said Nick Twidale, chief operating officer at Rakuten Securities.

Currencies such as the Chinese yuan, which were battered in the US-China trade war, are expected to trade stronger versus the greenback in the coming weeks as investor sentiment improves.

The dollar fell 0.5 percent against the offshore yuan to 6.8375. On Monday, it lost 1.07 percent, its steepest percentage fall since Aug. 25.

“For now, it seems China has got the best out of G20 and we expect the yuan to remain supported,” added Twidale.

However, he warned that markets need to see a further easing in trade tensions for the risk-on rally to continue.

The Australian dollar gained 0.3 percent in Asian trade at $0.7376. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its policy cash rate unchanged on Tuesday in a widely expected move.

The yen traded at 113.13 to the dollar, with the greenback losing 0.4 percent versus the Japanese currency.

Elsewhere, sterling was gained 0.2 percent to trade at $1.2744 due to broad dollar weakness. On Monday, the pound fell below $1.27 for the first time since Oct. 31.

Sterling has posted losses for three consecutive weeks as traders bet that British Prime Minister Theresa May will not be able to pass her Brexit deal through parliament on Dec. 11.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: tyrone siu
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, dollar, yuan, tariff, weakens, fall, yield, treasury, fed, versus, rate, fell, postponement, yields, riskier, currencies, supports


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Palladium hits record high, briefly surpasses gold price

Palladium soared to a record high on Tuesday, fueled by speculative interest and tight supplies of the autocatalyst metal, briefly surpassing bullion, which scaled to more than a five-week peak as the dollar slid. Spot gold was up 0.6 percent to $1,237.81 per ounce after earlier hitting $1,241.86, the highest price since Oct. 26. Palladium climbed 2.3 percent to $1,230.70 per ounce, having earlier jumped to an all-time high of $1,239.50. However, a few analysts said palladium’s rally could run o


Palladium soared to a record high on Tuesday, fueled by speculative interest and tight supplies of the autocatalyst metal, briefly surpassing bullion, which scaled to more than a five-week peak as the dollar slid. Spot gold was up 0.6 percent to $1,237.81 per ounce after earlier hitting $1,241.86, the highest price since Oct. 26. Palladium climbed 2.3 percent to $1,230.70 per ounce, having earlier jumped to an all-time high of $1,239.50. However, a few analysts said palladium’s rally could run o
Palladium hits record high, briefly surpasses gold price Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, metal, dollar, briefly, price, hits, market, ounce, short, palladium, prices, gold, interest, surpasses, tight, high, record


Palladium hits record high, briefly surpasses gold price

Palladium soared to a record high on Tuesday, fueled by speculative interest and tight supplies of the autocatalyst metal, briefly surpassing bullion, which scaled to more than a five-week peak as the dollar slid.

Spot gold was up 0.6 percent to $1,237.81 per ounce after earlier hitting $1,241.86, the highest price since Oct. 26. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.56 percent at $1,246.60 per ounce.

Palladium climbed 2.3 percent to $1,230.70 per ounce, having earlier jumped to an all-time high of $1,239.50.

“We have a tight fundamental market, flat supplies, rising demand and on top of that, undoubtedly some speculative interest which has helped drive prices to all-time record highs,” Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said.

“For the moment, we don’t see anything changing; the metal remains in demand for industrial uses, speculators are covering their positions, lease market is very tight, and palladium forwards are in backwardation. We could see some higher prices from here in the very short term.”

The metal, used mainly in emissions-reducing auto catalysts for vehicles, has gained about 49 percent since mid-August.

“Palladium continues to fire long signals on all indicators and to make new highs, and is now challenging gold as reduced auto tariffs from China boost demand expectations in an already tight market,” analysts at TD Securities said in a note.

However, a few analysts said palladium’s rally could run out of steam, and there could be profit-taking at these high levels.

The metal’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) was around 77. An RSI above 70 indicates a commodity is overbought and could lead to a price correction.

“Looking ahead we believe the dynamic of an investor long overhang that has been built up for palladium, combined with the short overhang in the gold market, will eventually contribute to gold re-establishing its premium over palladium,” analysts at Metals Focus wrote in a note.

Meanwhile, gold prices were on track for a second straight session of gains as the dollar continued to be pressured after the United States and China agreed to hold off on fresh trade tariffs for 90 days.

“Primarily, it is the weaker dollar that is providing assistance and that will be the key driver in the short term,” Capital Economics analyst Ross Strachan said.

“However, gold is going to find it difficult to sustain the current rally unless there is even more dollar weakness.”

Investors also kept a close eye on signals on the future path of interest rates next year by the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the central bank widely expected to raise rates at its policy meeting on Dec. 18-19. Meanwhile, spot silver jumped 1.04 percent to $14.52 per ounce, while platinum dipped 0.3 percent to $804.20.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, metal, dollar, briefly, price, hits, market, ounce, short, palladium, prices, gold, interest, surpasses, tight, high, record


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