Trump’s budget will project 3% GDP growth over the next few years – defying consensus forecasts

In 2017, the White House budget projected growth would be 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year. The White House is also expected to seek $8.6 billion to build the border wall, an official said. The White House budget will also likely call for making all individual and corporate tax cuts permanent, in a bid to boost growth in later years. The individual tax cuts are currently slated to expire after 2025, while some corporate provisions will phase out over a number of ye


In 2017, the White House budget projected growth would be 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year. The White House is also expected to seek $8.6 billion to build the border wall, an official said. The White House budget will also likely call for making all individual and corporate tax cuts permanent, in a bid to boost growth in later years. The individual tax cuts are currently slated to expire after 2025, while some corporate provisions will phase out over a number of ye
Trump’s budget will project 3% GDP growth over the next few years – defying consensus forecasts Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-10  Authors: ylan mui, carlos barria
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, house, trumps, forecasts, project, consensus, tax, cuts, defying, gdp, budget, outside, administration, white, according, growth


Trump's budget will project 3% GDP growth over the next few years – defying consensus forecasts

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump’s budget will project that the economy continues to grow at a 3 percent rate or higher over the next five years, despite a more pessimistic consensus from outside forecasters.

The White House will release the president’s budget Monday, along with its assumptions about how the economy will evolve under the administration’s proposed policies. The forecasts will show GDP reaching 3.2 percent this year compared to last year and 3.1 percent in 2020, according to a copy of the projections obtained by CNBC. Growth will then level off at 3 percent through 2024, according to the projections.

Those estimates are markedly higher than independent outside projections.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office forecast growth this year at 2.7 percent, followed by a significant dropoff next year to 1.9 percent as the boost from the new tax law peters out. After that, the CBO predicts growth will hover between 1.6 and 1.8 percent through 2029. The Federal Reserve predicts long-run growth at about 2 percent.

However, the administration will tout that it has met or exceeded its economic forecasts for the president’s first two years in office, according to materials obtained by CNBC. In 2017, the White House budget projected growth would be 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year. It actually hit 2.5 percent.

Last year, the administration forecast 3.1 percent growth by the end of the year. While government data said 2018 growth was 2.9 percent, economists on Wall Street who measure growth on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis say it was 3.1 percent for 2018.

In addition, outside estimates are typically based on current policies.

Trump’s budget – like those of his predecessors – assumes that the proposals outlined in his budget are enacted. An administration official said that includes a one-time spike of $174 billion in defense spending for fiscal year 2020. The budget will also include deep cuts to all other federal spending: a 5 percent reduction from this year’s sequester caps. The White House is also expected to seek $8.6 billion to build the border wall, an official said.

The White House budget will also likely call for making all individual and corporate tax cuts permanent, in a bid to boost growth in later years. The individual tax cuts are currently slated to expire after 2025, while some corporate provisions will phase out over a number of years.

The White House forecasts show the pace of growth edging down to 2.9 percent in 2025, then leveling off at 2.8 percent through 2029. That is on par with the administration’s projections last year.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-10  Authors: ylan mui, carlos barria
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, house, trumps, forecasts, project, consensus, tax, cuts, defying, gdp, budget, outside, administration, white, according, growth


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Australia dollar skids as the economy slows sharply

Australia’s economy slowed sharply in the second half of last year as consumers shut their wallets and housing construction pulled back, data showed on Wednesday, sending the local currency to a two-month trough. The gross domestic product (GDP) figures showed the A$1.8 trillion ($1.32 trillion) economy expanded 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, slower than the 0.3 percent increase economists had forecast in a Reuters poll. The disappointing outcome sent the Australian dollar down 0.4 percent t


Australia’s economy slowed sharply in the second half of last year as consumers shut their wallets and housing construction pulled back, data showed on Wednesday, sending the local currency to a two-month trough. The gross domestic product (GDP) figures showed the A$1.8 trillion ($1.32 trillion) economy expanded 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, slower than the 0.3 percent increase economists had forecast in a Reuters poll. The disappointing outcome sent the Australian dollar down 0.4 percent t
Australia dollar skids as the economy slows sharply Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-06  Authors: brendon thorne, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, sharply, outcome, australia, wednesdays, dollar, data, growth, trillion, slows, twomonth, skids, countrys, spending, gdp, showed, economy


Australia dollar skids as the economy slows sharply

Australia’s economy slowed sharply in the second half of last year as consumers shut their wallets and housing construction pulled back, data showed on Wednesday, sending the local currency to a two-month trough.

The gross domestic product (GDP) figures showed the A$1.8 trillion ($1.32 trillion) economy expanded 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, slower than the 0.3 percent increase economists had forecast in a Reuters poll. Third-quarter growth was unrevised at 0.3 percent.

Annual GDP rose a below-trend 2.3 percent, the slowest since mid-2017 and confounding expectations for a 2.5 percent increase.

The dismal figures challenge the optimism of the country’s central bank, which expects growth to pick up to around 3 percent this year. The data also raises questions over whether the country’s recession-free run of 27 years is losing steam.

The disappointing outcome sent the Australian dollar down 0.4 percent to a two-month low of $0.7052.

A major setback in Wednesday’s data came from private consumption, which contributed just 0.2 percent to overall growth as households cut back on spending. The category accounts for about 57 percent of Australia’s GDP.

An escalating decline in Sydney and Melbourne home prices has eaten into consumer wealth at a time when they hold record levels of mortgage debt. A long stretch of unusually slow wages growth has also throttled household incomes, and shows few signs of changing anytime soon.

The sharper-than-expected downturn in the country’s once-booming property market has become a significant point of uncertainty for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which cut its growth and inflation forecasts last month and moved away from a previous tightening bias.

A decline in dwelling construction was one reason for the soft fourth-quarter outcome, while government spending was the only silver lining in Wednesday’s report.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-06  Authors: brendon thorne, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, sharply, outcome, australia, wednesdays, dollar, data, growth, trillion, slows, twomonth, skids, countrys, spending, gdp, showed, economy


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Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDP tracker shows next to no growth for first quarter

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow initial model estimate shows negligible growth for the first quarter of just 0.3 percent. The first-quarter report, which was released on the Atlanta Fed’s website, sent stocks lower Friday morning, but they later recovered. Many Wall Street economists see growth below 2 percent for the quarter, but for the most part they remain above 1 percent. Goldman Sachs cut its estimate of first-quarter growth to 0.9 percent Friday, and Macroeconomic Advisors reduced its call to 1


The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow initial model estimate shows negligible growth for the first quarter of just 0.3 percent. The first-quarter report, which was released on the Atlanta Fed’s website, sent stocks lower Friday morning, but they later recovered. Many Wall Street economists see growth below 2 percent for the quarter, but for the most part they remain above 1 percent. Goldman Sachs cut its estimate of first-quarter growth to 0.9 percent Friday, and Macroeconomic Advisors reduced its call to 1
Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDP tracker shows next to no growth for first quarter Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-01  Authors: patti domm, brendan mcdermid
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, feds, watched, shows, atlanta, included, closely, quarter, sachs, tracker, economists, estimate, growth, gdp, released, forecast, firstquarter


Atlanta Fed's closely watched GDP tracker shows next to no growth for first quarter

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow initial model estimate shows negligible growth for the first quarter of just 0.3 percent.

The Atlanta Fed noted Friday that the 2.6 percent estimate on Thursday of fourth-quarter real GDP growth was slightly above the forecast it released earlier in the week.

The first-quarter report, which was released on the Atlanta Fed’s website, sent stocks lower Friday morning, but they later recovered.

Many Wall Street economists see growth below 2 percent for the quarter, but for the most part they remain above 1 percent. Goldman Sachs cut its estimate of first-quarter growth to 0.9 percent Friday, and Macroeconomic Advisors reduced its call to 1 percent from 1.1 percent.

Economists mostly expect a snap back in the second quarter. The Goldman Sachs economists also raised their expectations for second-quarter growth to 2.9 percent from 2.7 percent. They said their first-quarter forecast includes an expected drag from inventories, sequentially slower consumption growth, a drop in residential investment, and 0.4 percentage points drag from the government shutdown.

Friday’s data included personal consumption expenditures, ISM manufacturing and consumer sentiment, all of which came in below forecast. The spending stats included December’s data that had been delayed due to the government shutdown.

Many economists expect the weakness in the first quarter to be transitory, with the consumer and businesses affected by the shutdown and severely cold weather brought on by the polar vortex. There are also signs that the trade conflicts have impacted some parts of the economy.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-01  Authors: patti domm, brendan mcdermid
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, feds, watched, shows, atlanta, included, closely, quarter, sachs, tracker, economists, estimate, growth, gdp, released, forecast, firstquarter


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Fourth-quarter GDP increases 2.6%, better than expected

U.S. economic growth was better than expected as 2018 came to a close, with GDP rising 2.6 percent, according to a first estimate the Commerce Department released Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected a gain of 2.2 percent after a 3.4 percent rise in the third quarter. Growth was helped by a 2.8 percent rise in consumer spending along with increased nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. The gross private domestic in


U.S. economic growth was better than expected as 2018 came to a close, with GDP rising 2.6 percent, according to a first estimate the Commerce Department released Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected a gain of 2.2 percent after a 3.4 percent rise in the third quarter. Growth was helped by a 2.8 percent rise in consumer spending along with increased nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. The gross private domestic in
Fourth-quarter GDP increases 2.6%, better than expected Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-28  Authors: jeff cox, adam jeffery
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, previous, rise, gain, fourthquarter, gdp, expected, better, increases, spending, growth, increased, private, quarter, market, investment, 26


Fourth-quarter GDP increases 2.6%, better than expected

U.S. economic growth was better than expected as 2018 came to a close, with GDP rising 2.6 percent, according to a first estimate the Commerce Department released Thursday.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected a gain of 2.2 percent after a 3.4 percent rise in the third quarter. The growth came amid a bevy of uncertainty and a time when the stock market briefly slid into bear market territory.

Growth was helped by a 2.8 percent rise in consumer spending along with increased nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Weakness in residential fixed investment, which fell 3.5 percent, and state and local government spending served as a drag. The gross private domestic investment gain slowed to 4.6 percent in the quarter after a robust 15.2 percent rise in the previous period.

Exports rose 1.6 percent in the quarter, reversing a 4.9 percent decline in the previous quarter, while imports increased by 2.7 percent, making trade a slight net negative.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-28  Authors: jeff cox, adam jeffery
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, previous, rise, gain, fourthquarter, gdp, expected, better, increases, spending, growth, increased, private, quarter, market, investment, 26


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Closely watched Atlanta Fed GDP model now sees growth at just 1.4 percent for fourth quarter

The Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDPNow model sees GDP growth for the fourth quarter at 1.4 percent. The forecast had been 1.5 percent but was ratcheted down after Thursday’s December durable goods report showed a decline in capital expenditures. Economists surveyed by CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid Update earlier Thursday had a mean expectation for fourth quarter growth of 2 percent, following the durable goods report. Earlier, J.P. Morgan economists reduced tracking growth for the fourth quarte


The Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDPNow model sees GDP growth for the fourth quarter at 1.4 percent. The forecast had been 1.5 percent but was ratcheted down after Thursday’s December durable goods report showed a decline in capital expenditures. Economists surveyed by CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid Update earlier Thursday had a mean expectation for fourth quarter growth of 2 percent, following the durable goods report. Earlier, J.P. Morgan economists reduced tracking growth for the fourth quarte
Closely watched Atlanta Fed GDP model now sees growth at just 1.4 percent for fourth quarter Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-21  Authors: patti domm, timothy aeppel
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, durable, growth, sees, closely, decline, report, quarter, showed, model, sales, retail, gdp, atlanta, goods, fed, fourth, watched


Closely watched Atlanta Fed GDP model now sees growth at just 1.4 percent for fourth quarter

The Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDPNow model sees GDP growth for the fourth quarter at 1.4 percent.

The forecast had been 1.5 percent but was ratcheted down after Thursday’s December durable goods report showed a decline in capital expenditures. The Atlanta Fed said its nowcast of fourth-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth declined to 3.9 percent from 4.5 percent.

Economists surveyed by CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid Update earlier Thursday had a mean expectation for fourth quarter growth of 2 percent, following the durable goods report.

Earlier, J.P. Morgan economists reduced tracking growth for the fourth quarter to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent. Expecting slowness to persist, they trimmed first quarter growth to 1.5 percent from 1.75 percent.

The durable goods report follows last week’s late release of December retail sales, which showed a decline of 1.2 percent. Together the durable goods and retail sales reported amounted to as much as an 0.8 percentage point decline in GDP forecasts.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-21  Authors: patti domm, timothy aeppel
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, durable, growth, sees, closely, decline, report, quarter, showed, model, sales, retail, gdp, atlanta, goods, fed, fourth, watched


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That $22 trillion national debt number is huge, but here’s what it really means

From there, borrowing to finance two wars along with two recessions sent debt to GDP to 77.3 percent by the time Obama took office. That figure, too, began to rise in the early 1980s, from less than $1 trillion to its current $16.2 trillion. In debt-to-GDP terms, the public debt rose from 75 percent when Trump took office to 76.4 percent as of the third quarter of 2018. The main culprit of public debt is budget deficits, which have surged under Trump though the CBO now expects the shortfall to b


From there, borrowing to finance two wars along with two recessions sent debt to GDP to 77.3 percent by the time Obama took office. That figure, too, began to rise in the early 1980s, from less than $1 trillion to its current $16.2 trillion. In debt-to-GDP terms, the public debt rose from 75 percent when Trump took office to 76.4 percent as of the third quarter of 2018. The main culprit of public debt is budget deficits, which have surged under Trump though the CBO now expects the shortfall to b
That $22 trillion national debt number is huge, but here’s what it really means Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-13  Authors: jeff cox, michael nagle, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, public, really, gdp, huge, number, took, heres, growth, trillion, office, means, debt, national, level, trump, 22, obama


That $22 trillion national debt number is huge, but here's what it really means

There are two more relevant metrics, though, when thinking about national debt.

One is the percentage of debt as compared to gross domestic product. That’s an important measure because it gauges both the ability of the government to pay its tab through growth, and because it helps measure bang for the buck in terms of how much growth the debt has helped generate.

Total debt compared to the economy remained pretty low for decades until it began to climb in the early 1980s while President Ronald Reagan fought the Cold War against the former Soviet Union.

Debt to GDP was about 30.6 percent when Reagan took office in 1981, then steadily climbed to a peak of 65.3 percent in mid-1995, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. Then-President Bill Clinton and the Republican-controlled Congress eventually carved out a short-lived government surplus, resulting in less of a need to borrow and the level to fall to 30.9 percent in the second quarter of 2001.

From there, borrowing to finance two wars along with two recessions sent debt to GDP to 77.3 percent by the time Obama took office. When Obama left, the level had risen to 103.6 percent.

Under Trump, there’s been only a small uptick in that regard, with the level standing now at 104.1 percent.

The other relevant metric is debt held by the public, which parses out “intragovernmental holdings,” or money the government borrows to operate from its various trust funds like Social Security and Medicare.

That figure, too, began to rise in the early 1980s, from less than $1 trillion to its current $16.2 trillion. In the Obama years alone, it surged from $6.3 trillion to $14.4 trillion.

In debt-to-GDP terms, the public debt rose from 75 percent when Trump took office to 76.4 percent as of the third quarter of 2018. As a contrast, that level rose from 47.5 percent at the start of Obama’s term to 75 percent when he left.

The future, though, is what has many economists concerned.

The most recent projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office indicate that debt held by the public will rise to 93 percent of GDP in the next 10 years, or the highest since just after the end of World War II. From there, the level is expected to hit 150 percent by 2049, which is well above what economists consider a sustainable level.

Moreover, should current tax policies stay in place, rather than sunset as they are designed to do, the debt burden will get even worse.

The main culprit of public debt is budget deficits, which have surged under Trump though the CBO now expects the shortfall to be a cumulative $1.2 trillion less than previous projections. The office estimates that annual deficits will start topping $1 trillion in 2022, from an estimated $900 billion in fiscal 2019.

The Trump administration has said economic growth will pay for the added debt and deficit burden, but so far that hasn’t been the case despite the fastest GDP gains of the recovery.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-13  Authors: jeff cox, michael nagle, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, public, really, gdp, huge, number, took, heres, growth, trillion, office, means, debt, national, level, trump, 22, obama


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European markets open higher ahead of US-China trade talks

Market focus is largely attuned to global trade developments, with a delegation of U.S. officials set to travel to China for the next round of negotiations this week. The latest set of trade talks will take place in Beijing from Monday. Escalating tensions between the world’s two largest economies have cost both countries billions of dollars and roiled global financial markets. Back in Europe, investors are likely to monitor a preliminary quarter-on-quarter estimate of U.K. GDP growth rate data


Market focus is largely attuned to global trade developments, with a delegation of U.S. officials set to travel to China for the next round of negotiations this week. The latest set of trade talks will take place in Beijing from Monday. Escalating tensions between the world’s two largest economies have cost both countries billions of dollars and roiled global financial markets. Back in Europe, investors are likely to monitor a preliminary quarter-on-quarter estimate of U.K. GDP growth rate data
European markets open higher ahead of US-China trade talks Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-11  Authors: sam meredith
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, european, uschina, ahead, latest, gdp, global, shares, set, talks, markets, higher, japan, uk, trading, open, data


European markets open higher ahead of US-China trade talks

Market focus is largely attuned to global trade developments, with a delegation of U.S. officials set to travel to China for the next round of negotiations this week.

The latest set of trade talks will take place in Beijing from Monday. It comes after discussions in Washington last week concluded without a deal.

Both sides are trying to secure a comprehensive trade agreement ahead of a March 1 deadline when U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports are scheduled to increase to 25 percent from 10 percent.

Escalating tensions between the world’s two largest economies have cost both countries billions of dollars and roiled global financial markets.

In Asia, Chinese shares whipsawed on Monday after they resumed trading following a week-long Lunar New Year holiday. The blue-chip index rose 0.4 percent, though trading volumes were still expected to be light with Japan on a public holiday.

MSCI’s broadest-index of Asia-Pacific shares, excluding Japan, was around 0.1 percent lower.

Back in Europe, investors are likely to monitor a preliminary quarter-on-quarter estimate of U.K. GDP growth rate data at around 9:30 a.m. London time. The U.K. is also expected to release annualized GDP data for December as well as the latest industrial production figures and trade balance data.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-11  Authors: sam meredith
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, european, uschina, ahead, latest, gdp, global, shares, set, talks, markets, higher, japan, uk, trading, open, data


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IMF’s Lagarde says oil exporters not fully recovered from 2014 shock, warns of ‘white elephant projects’

Oil exporters have not fully recovered from the dramatic oil price shock of 2014, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Saturday, and she cautioned against spending money on “white elephant projects.” “This has led to a sharp increase in public debt, from 13 percent of GDP in 2013 to 33 percent in 2018.” Lagarde said governments in the region might be tempted to favor white elephant projects instead of investment in people and productive potential. Among oil importers in the Middle


Oil exporters have not fully recovered from the dramatic oil price shock of 2014, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Saturday, and she cautioned against spending money on “white elephant projects.” “This has led to a sharp increase in public debt, from 13 percent of GDP in 2013 to 33 percent in 2018.” Lagarde said governments in the region might be tempted to favor white elephant projects instead of investment in people and productive potential. Among oil importers in the Middle
IMF’s Lagarde says oil exporters not fully recovered from 2014 shock, warns of ‘white elephant projects’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-10  Authors: simon dawson, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, oil, fully, recovered, lagarde, middle, public, region, growth, fiscal, imfs, exporters, shock, white, warns, gdp, projects, spending, global


IMF's Lagarde says oil exporters not fully recovered from 2014 shock, warns of 'white elephant projects'

Oil exporters have not fully recovered from the dramatic oil price shock of 2014, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Saturday, and she cautioned against spending money on “white elephant projects.”

“With revenues down, fiscal deficits are only slowly declining, despite significant reforms on both the spending and revenue sides, including the introduction of VAT and excise taxes,” Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF, told a conference in Dubai.

“This has led to a sharp increase in public debt, from 13 percent of GDP in 2013 to 33 percent in 2018.”

Lagarde said the uncertainty in the growth outlook for oil exporters also reflected moves by countries to shift rapidly toward renewable energy over the new few decades, in line with the Paris climate change pact.

She said there was scope to improve fiscal frameworks in the Middle East with some of the weaknesses emanating from “short-termism and insufficient credibility.”

Lagarde said governments in the region might be tempted to favor white elephant projects instead of investment in people and productive potential.

Saudi Arabia, the Middle East’s biggest economy, has announced plans to go ahead with three major projects including NEOM, a $500 billion economic zone announced by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The projects are backed by the country’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund.

Lagarde also said across the region, it is common for sovereign wealth funds to directly finance projects, bypassing the normal budget process, while state-owned enterprises in some countries had high levels of borrowing, outside the budget.

She said oil exporters could follow the example of other resource-rich countries such as Chile and Norway in using fiscal rules to protect priorities, such as social spending, from commodity price volatility.

Among oil importers in the Middle East region, growth had picked up, but it was still below the level before the global financial crisis, she said.

Fiscal deficits remained high, and public debt had risen rapidly — from 64 percent of GDP in 2008 to 85 percent a decade later, she said. Public debt now exceeded 90 percent of GDP in nearly half of these countries.

Speaking about the global economy, Lagarde said the IMF was not seeing a global recession on the horizon, but risks were rising for global growth due to trade tensions and tightening financial conditions.

The IMF’s revised forecast sees the global economy growing by 3.5 percent this year, 0.2 percentage points below what it expected in October.

“Unsurprisingly, a weaker global environment has knock-on effects on the region through a variety of channels — trade, remittances, capital flows, commodity prices, and financing conditions,” she said.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-10  Authors: simon dawson, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, oil, fully, recovered, lagarde, middle, public, region, growth, fiscal, imfs, exporters, shock, white, warns, gdp, projects, spending, global


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Italy falls into recession after quarterly decline in GDP 2018

Italy’s economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter at the end of last year, data showed on Thursday, throwing the country into recession in a setback for the new anti-establishment government. The average forecast in a Reuters survey of analysts had pointed to a 0.1 percent fall quarter-on-quarter, up 0.3 percent year-on-year. Over the whole of 2018, growth came in at 1 percent, down from 1.6 percent in 2017. ISTAT revised the third quarter to show a 0.1 percent quarterly fall and a 0


Italy’s economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter at the end of last year, data showed on Thursday, throwing the country into recession in a setback for the new anti-establishment government. The average forecast in a Reuters survey of analysts had pointed to a 0.1 percent fall quarter-on-quarter, up 0.3 percent year-on-year. Over the whole of 2018, growth came in at 1 percent, down from 1.6 percent in 2017. ISTAT revised the third quarter to show a 0.1 percent quarterly fall and a 0
Italy falls into recession after quarterly decline in GDP 2018 Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-31  Authors: alessia peirdomenico, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, italys, decline, 01, falls, 2018, budget, fall, forecast, gdp, recession, quarter, growth, zones, economy, italy, quarterly


Italy falls into recession after quarterly decline in GDP 2018

Italy’s economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter at the end of last year, data showed on Thursday, throwing the country into recession in a setback for the new anti-establishment government.

Gross domestic product fell a quarterly 0.2 percent between October and December, following a 0.1 percent decline in the third quarter, and was up 0.1 percent on an annual basis, national statistics bureau ISTAT reported.

The fourth quarter decline was steeper than expected. The average forecast in a Reuters survey of analysts had pointed to a 0.1 percent fall quarter-on-quarter, up 0.3 percent year-on-year.

The government which took office in June last year points out the euro zone’s third-largest economy has been weakening since early 2017 and has recently been hit by a slowdown in Italy’s main trading partners, such as China and Germany.

Critics say the coalition parties worsened the situation by fighting with Brussels over fiscal policy, creating a loss of market confidence which pushed up Italy’s borrowing costs and hurt the economy.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said on Wednesday the fourth quarter data would be negative, but added that conditions were in place for a recovery over the second half of this year.

Over the whole of 2018, growth came in at 1 percent, down from 1.6 percent in 2017.

ISTAT revised the third quarter to show a 0.1 percent quarterly fall and a 0.6 percent annual increase, previously reported as -0.1 percent on the quarter and -0.7 percent year-on-year.

ISTAT said the quarterly contraction at the end of the year was due to a fall in domestic demand, which outweighed a positive contribution from trade flows.

It gave no numerical breakdown of components with its preliminary estimate, but said industry and agriculture had been negative, while the service sector had been “substantially stable.”

The government of the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the right-wing League has targeted GDP growth of 1 percent this year, but most independent bodies expect it to be little more than half that.

A Reuters survey of 46 economists published this month forecast 2019 growth of 0.7 percent. The Bank of Italy and the International Monetary Fund both forecast 0.6 percent.

The coalition approved an expansionary budget in December aimed at heading off the growing threat of recession.

The budget, which was watered after European Commission objections it would not lower Italy’s high public debt, features a new income support scheme for the poor and allows people to retire earlier. It also slashes taxes for the self-employed.

ISTAT said in November the budget would support private consumption this year, and forecast growth of 1.3 percent, but since then the outlook has darkened in most of Italy’s main export markets, including Germany.

Italy has been the euro zone’s most sluggish economy since the start of monetary union, and few analysts believe the budget can turn things around in the face of a broad European slowdown, weakening global trade and Italy’s chronically stagnant productivity.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-31  Authors: alessia peirdomenico, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, italys, decline, 01, falls, 2018, budget, fall, forecast, gdp, recession, quarter, growth, zones, economy, italy, quarterly


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