A top-performing hedge fund is making a big bet on gold

Traders work after the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 7, 2019 in New York City. A top-performing hedge fund is more than doubling its bet on gold and is ruling the industry with a nearly 30% return this year on its long positions. The nearly 30% return this year is Symmetric’s estimate based on the fund’s long positions, not its overall return. Gold prices topped $1,500 an ounce recently as investors fled to hard assets amid a global slowdown and fears of a recessio


Traders work after the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 7, 2019 in New York City. A top-performing hedge fund is more than doubling its bet on gold and is ruling the industry with a nearly 30% return this year on its long positions. The nearly 30% return this year is Symmetric’s estimate based on the fund’s long positions, not its overall return. Gold prices topped $1,500 an ounce recently as investors fled to hard assets amid a global slowdown and fears of a recessio
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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-20  Authors: yun li
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A top-performing hedge fund is making a big bet on gold

Traders work after the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 7, 2019 in New York City. – Wall Street stocks finished little changed on August 7, 2019, following a choppy session as a plunge in treasury bond yields early in the day underscored worries about a weakening global economy.

A top-performing hedge fund is more than doubling its bet on gold and is ruling the industry with a nearly 30% return this year on its long positions.

Sandler Capital Management, with $2.1 billion in regulatory assets under management, is run by much smaller and lesser-known managers than star investors like David Einhorn and Bill Ackman. But it is one of the best stock-picking funds this year, almost doubling the year-to-date gains for the S&P 500, according to Symmetric.io, a hedge-fund tracking firm.

The nearly 30% return this year is Symmetric’s estimate based on the fund’s long positions, not its overall return.

Based on its latest regulatory filings, Sandler increased its stake in the SPDR Gold Trust by nearly 180% to $38 million by the end of the second quarter, making it the biggest position the fund holds. The ramped-up wager could be a defensive play against more market turbulence ahead.

The precious metal has become increasingly attractive in a world full of negative yielding debt. Gold prices topped $1,500 an ounce recently as investors fled to hard assets amid a global slowdown and fears of a recession. Its safe-haven status also drew a recommendation from hedge fund guru Ray Dalio, who lately advocated putting money into gold during the upcoming “paradigm shift” for global markets

Sandler declined to comment.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-20  Authors: yun li
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Gold slips 1% as equities, US Treasury yields rise

Gold shed 1% on Monday as a recovery in share markets and rising U.S. Treasury yields reduced some of the metal’s safe-haven appeal, prompting investors to book profits. “However, gold is holding above the $1,500 level and key support level around $1,480 – $1,485 area. But with bond yields moving up a notch, there isn’t much room for gold buyers.” Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields gained on Monday, moving further away from record lows after the closely-watched U.S. yield curve between two- and 10-y


Gold shed 1% on Monday as a recovery in share markets and rising U.S. Treasury yields reduced some of the metal’s safe-haven appeal, prompting investors to book profits. “However, gold is holding above the $1,500 level and key support level around $1,480 – $1,485 area. But with bond yields moving up a notch, there isn’t much room for gold buyers.” Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields gained on Monday, moving further away from record lows after the closely-watched U.S. yield curve between two- and 10-y
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Gold slips 1% as equities, US Treasury yields rise

Gold shed 1% on Monday as a recovery in share markets and rising U.S. Treasury yields reduced some of the metal’s safe-haven appeal, prompting investors to book profits.

Spot gold was down 1.06% at $1,497.85 per ounce. U.S. gold futures slipped 1% to $1,508.1.

“The rally in bond markets seems to have paused at least for now and we’ve seen some additional gains in stocks over the weekend, so a bit of a more optimistic start to the week is helping to attract profit taking in gold,” Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen said.

“However, gold is holding above the $1,500 level and key support level around $1,480 – $1,485 area. But with bond yields moving up a notch, there isn’t much room for gold buyers.”

Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields gained on Monday, moving further away from record lows after the closely-watched U.S. yield curve between two- and 10-year bonds inverted for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday.

Equity markets around the world rose, with European markets rising for the second session, as investors cheered signs of moves by Germany and China to counter slowing growth.

Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump and top White House officials dismissed concerns that economic growth may be faltering, saying they saw little risk of recession. Trump also said he was “not ready to make a (trade) deal yet” with China.

Markets are awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium this week for greater clarity on the future path of interest rates. Traders saw an 83.7% chance of a 25 basis-point cut in September.

“Given the policy uncertainties that may or may not unfold later in the week from Jackson Hole symposium, gold could consolidate with a downward bias before eventually resuming its upward momentum,” Stephen Innes, managing partner, VM Markets said in a note.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

However, the dollar index was up 0.1%, hovering near a two-week high hit in the previous session.

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.1% to 843.41 tonnes on Friday from Thursday.

Hedge funds and money managers trimmed their bullish stance in COMEX gold and cut net long positions in silver contracts in the week to Aug. 13, the U.S.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

Elsewhere, silver dipped 1% to $16.91 per ounce.

Platinum fell 0.4% to $840.75 an ounce, while palladium gained 0.5% to $1,455.16.


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Gold heads for third weekly gain on trade, growth concerns

Gold prices edged lower on Friday but were headed for a third consecutive weekly gain, as fears over a global economic slowdown and a lack of clarity on the U.S.-China trade war boosted the metal’s safe-haven appeal. With the trade saga going nowhere, investors have hedged against a global slowdown by buying safe-haven assets like gold, Japanese yen and U.S. Treasuries. Earlier this week, 10-year Treasury yields dropped below the 2-year yield for the first time in 12 years. Meanwhile, the dollar


Gold prices edged lower on Friday but were headed for a third consecutive weekly gain, as fears over a global economic slowdown and a lack of clarity on the U.S.-China trade war boosted the metal’s safe-haven appeal. With the trade saga going nowhere, investors have hedged against a global slowdown by buying safe-haven assets like gold, Japanese yen and U.S. Treasuries. Earlier this week, 10-year Treasury yields dropped below the 2-year yield for the first time in 12 years. Meanwhile, the dollar
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Gold heads for third weekly gain on trade, growth concerns

Gold prices edged lower on Friday but were headed for a third consecutive weekly gain, as fears over a global economic slowdown and a lack of clarity on the U.S.-China trade war boosted the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,521 per ounce as of 0400 GMT, but is up nearly 1.6% so far this week after rising in the previous two weeks.

U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,5231 an ounce.

“Gold is consolidating here. The important consideration is that none of the headwinds have gone away; the tariffs got delayed a bit, but the underlying trade war remains and lower yields are supportive for gold,” said Ilya Spivak, senior currency strategist with DailyFx.

“Markets are looking ahead for the Jackson Hole symposium. In context of recent gains that might give us some corrective pullbacks, as people reduce exposure before event risk.”

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he believed China wanted to make a trade deal and that the dispute would be fairly short.

This comes after Beijing vowed to counter the latest tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods but called on the United States to meet it halfway on a potential trade deal.

With the trade saga going nowhere, investors have hedged against a global slowdown by buying safe-haven assets like gold, Japanese yen and U.S. Treasuries.

Earlier this week, 10-year Treasury yields dropped below the 2-year yield for the first time in 12 years. Curve inversion is widely considered a warning that the economy is headed for recession.

Bullion has risen nearly 8%, or more than $100, since the beginning of the month amid the heightened trade tensions and a slew of disappointing economic data globally.

“The yellow metal continues to benefit from safe-haven inflows, which should ensure that any pullbacks are limited ahead of the weekend,” OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley, said in a note.

Investors will shift their focus to the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium next week. Traders see about a one-in-three chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Fed this September.

Meanwhile, the dollar index edged higher on Friday and was on course for a weekly gain.

On the technical side, spot gold may fall into a range of $1,483-$1,503 per ounce, as suggested by its wave pattern and a retracement analysis, said Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Elsewhere, silver was down 0.2% at $17.22 per ounce but was on track for a second consecutive weekly gain.

Platinum fell 0.3% to $836.10 an ounce, while palladium rose 0.3% to $1,448.57 an ounce.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-16
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Gold prices firm on mixed signals on economy, trade

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday as lingering fears over a global economic downturn and lack of clarity on the U.S.-China trade front kept the safe haven comfortably above the key $1,500 per ounce handle. However, bullion’s gains were limited as investors took stock of mixed economic data from the United States, with strong U.S. retail sales offering respite to battered risk appetite. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,524.47 per ounce by, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% at $1,535.4. “But with th


Gold prices edged higher on Thursday as lingering fears over a global economic downturn and lack of clarity on the U.S.-China trade front kept the safe haven comfortably above the key $1,500 per ounce handle. However, bullion’s gains were limited as investors took stock of mixed economic data from the United States, with strong U.S. retail sales offering respite to battered risk appetite. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,524.47 per ounce by, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% at $1,535.4. “But with th
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Gold prices firm on mixed signals on economy, trade

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday as lingering fears over a global economic downturn and lack of clarity on the U.S.-China trade front kept the safe haven comfortably above the key $1,500 per ounce handle.

However, bullion’s gains were limited as investors took stock of mixed economic data from the United States, with strong U.S. retail sales offering respite to battered risk appetite.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,524.47 per ounce by, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% at $1,535.4.

At the day’s peak of $1,523.91 per ounce, gold was back to within $11 of Tuesday’s six-year high, which was followed by a 1% jump on Wednesday, due to fears of a recession as investors fretted over the trade war, unrest in Hong Kong and a slide in emerging-market assets.

“But with the U.S. retail sales data coming out as strong as they did, that’s seeing some market participants rethink their bets,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

However, the elevated levels of safe haven interest in gold fueled by factors such as the Hong Kong unrest and fears of an Argentine debt default “is not likely to change in a single day,” Ghali added.

U.S. stocks moved higher, driven by a surge in July retail sales that soothed some nerves frayed by an inversion in the government bond yield curve, historically a reliable signal of a coming recession. 1/8MKTS/GLOB/

On the flip side, U.S. manufacturing output ended a two-month run of growth in July, while initial weekly jobless claims data was weaker than expected.

Considered a safe store of value during times of political and economic uncertainty, gold has gained more than $100 per ounce since the beginning of the month.

“Although gold prices look like they are overshooting, it has not been a good idea in the past to bet that the runaway train is going to come to a halt,” TD Securities’ Ghali said.

Investors digested conflicting signals on the trade front as well.

China’s finance ministry initially said it would take counter-measures against the latest tariffs on Chinese goods, but this was followed by a separate statement that Beijing hoped the United States would meet China halfway for a consensus.

“The overall uncertainty from the trade dispute is high and we also expect some central bank action for recession-fighting to come over the next weeks and months,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of economics and next-generation research at Julius Baer.

Elsewhere, silver was up 0.2% at $17.23 per ounce.

Platinum was down 0.5% to $836.70 an ounce and palladium rose 1.7% higher at $1,448.17 an ounce.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-15
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Gold holds steady as political, trade woes persist

Gold steadied on Wednesday, consolidating around the key $1,500 level, buoyed by uncertainty around political risks such as the unrest in Hong Kong amid global growth concerns, while a slight easing of the Sino-U.S. trade tensions kept prices in check. Spot gold was steady at $1,501.73 per ounce at 0251 GMT. Geopolitical risks in Hong Kong, trends in global growth and we are also expecting at least one more cut from the Federal Reserve. On Tuesday, gold prices rose to their highest in more than


Gold steadied on Wednesday, consolidating around the key $1,500 level, buoyed by uncertainty around political risks such as the unrest in Hong Kong amid global growth concerns, while a slight easing of the Sino-U.S. trade tensions kept prices in check. Spot gold was steady at $1,501.73 per ounce at 0251 GMT. Geopolitical risks in Hong Kong, trends in global growth and we are also expecting at least one more cut from the Federal Reserve. On Tuesday, gold prices rose to their highest in more than
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Gold holds steady as political, trade woes persist

Gold steadied on Wednesday, consolidating around the key $1,500 level, buoyed by uncertainty around political risks such as the unrest in Hong Kong amid global growth concerns, while a slight easing of the Sino-U.S. trade tensions kept prices in check.

Spot gold was steady at $1,501.73 per ounce at 0251 GMT. U.S. gold futures were down 0.1% at $1,512.10 an ounce.

“Easing in trade tensions, geopolitical risks have provided some sort of hope in the markets which boosted equities, because of this there is a brief pullback in gold prices,” said John Sharma, an economist with National Australia Bank.

“However, the trade dispute is still not resolved. Geopolitical risks in Hong Kong, trends in global growth and we are also expecting at least one more cut from the Federal Reserve. All these factors are supportive for gold,” Sharma added.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday backed off his Sept. 1 deadline for 10% tariffs on remaining Chinese imports, delaying duties on cellphones, laptops and other consumer goods, in the hopes of blunting the impact on U.S. holiday sales.

The reprieve in trade dispute between the world’s biggest economies boosted investor sentiment towards riskier assets, as Asian shares joined a global equities rally on Wednesday.

“Financial markets are starved for a bit of good news. China said it would hold trade talks by phone in two weeks, and the U.S. saying it will delay some of the tariffs have driven a wave of profit-taking across safe-haven assets,” Stephen Innes, managing partner, VM Markets wrote in a note.

On Tuesday, gold prices rose to their highest in more than six years triggered by a rout in the Argentine peso and unrest in Hong Kong, before closing down 0.7%.

Market focus shifts to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual symposium next week for clues on the future trajectory of interest rates. Traders see a 86.2% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the U.S. central bank this September.

Lower U.S. interest rates put pressure on the dollar and bond yields, increasing the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

Meanwhile, the dollar index was relatively unchanged against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, after rising 0.4% overnight.

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 1.31% to 836.66 tonnes on Tuesday from 847.77 tonnes on Monday.

Among other precious metals, silver eased 0.1% to $16.95 per ounce, after hitting more than one-and-a-half-year high in the previous session.

Platinum slipped 0.8% to $845 an ounce and palladium dipped 0.7% to $1,444.20 an ounce.


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Gold sheds 2% on signs of US-China trade thaw

Spot gold was down 0.7% at $1,501.36 per ounce, having earlier hit its highest level since April 2013 at $1,534.31. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3% to $1,512.6 an ounce. “While this does not dramatically dim the overall positive outlook for gold, it will temper its momentum in the short term.” Meanwhile, holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, jumped 0.9% to 847.77 tonnes on Monday. Among other precious metals, silver fell 0.5% to $16.97 per ounce, whi


Spot gold was down 0.7% at $1,501.36 per ounce, having earlier hit its highest level since April 2013 at $1,534.31. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3% to $1,512.6 an ounce. “While this does not dramatically dim the overall positive outlook for gold, it will temper its momentum in the short term.” Meanwhile, holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, jumped 0.9% to 847.77 tonnes on Monday. Among other precious metals, silver fell 0.5% to $16.97 per ounce, whi
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Gold sheds 2% on signs of US-China trade thaw

Gold fell 2% on Tuesday, reversing course from earlier in the session when it scaled a six-year peak, after the United States said it would delay tariffs on some Chinese products and on news that both sides agreed to continue trade talks.

Spot gold was down 0.7% at $1,501.36 per ounce, having earlier hit its highest level since April 2013 at $1,534.31. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3% to $1,512.6 an ounce.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said the Trump administration will delay 10% tariffs on certain Chinese products, including laptops and cell phones, that had been scheduled to start next month.

“A thawing, perhaps reconsideration of the new proposed tariffs has drained the heat from the (gold) rally for now,” said Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals derivatives trading at BMO.

“While this does not dramatically dim the overall positive outlook for gold, it will temper its momentum in the short term.”

U.S. stocks turned positive and the dollar rose on the news, with further momentum also coming from news that both sides had agreed to conduct phone calls on trade again in two weeks.

“Gold will be trading in a defensive position until the next two weeks; there will be some buying at the dips but the explosive moves higher we’ve seen in the last two weeks is not expected with the trade talks hanging over the market,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Gold’s rise to over 6-year highs earlier in the day was triggered by a rout in the Argentine peso and protesters clashing with police at the Hong Kong international airport after flights were disrupted for a second day.

Market focus is now on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual symposium next week for clues on the future trajectory of interest rates. Traders see a 91.2% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the U.S. central bank this September.

Meanwhile, holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, jumped 0.9% to 847.77 tonnes on Monday.

Among other precious metals, silver fell 0.5% to $16.97 per ounce, while platinum was up 0.5% to $856.41. Palladium, meanwhile gained 2% to $1,456.20 an ounce.


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Gold could hit $2,000 in a world full of negative yields

In a world full of negative yielding debt, hard assets like gold could become even more attractive, and some strategists say a case could be made for a $2,000 per ounce price tag on the precious metal. The reason they’re trading at negative yields is because the demand for safe assets is bigger than the supply for them,’ said Ghali. Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s metals strategist Michael Widmer, in a note, also says negative yields are making gold shine. He said the successive rounds of moneta


In a world full of negative yielding debt, hard assets like gold could become even more attractive, and some strategists say a case could be made for a $2,000 per ounce price tag on the precious metal. The reason they’re trading at negative yields is because the demand for safe assets is bigger than the supply for them,’ said Ghali. Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s metals strategist Michael Widmer, in a note, also says negative yields are making gold shine. He said the successive rounds of moneta
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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-13  Authors: patti domm
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Gold could hit $2,000 in a world full of negative yields

In a world full of negative yielding debt, hard assets like gold could become even more attractive, and some strategists say a case could be made for a $2,000 per ounce price tag on the precious metal.

Gold futures were at $1,513.80 an ounce Tuesday, down about 0.2%. In late May, gold snapped out of its slumber, broke above $1,300 and has not looked back. In September, 2011, gold futures reached all-time high of $1,923.70 per ounce.

“We have a long position trade on. We are targeting $1,585,” said Daniel Ghali, commodities strategist at TD Securities. “We do think gold is on its way higher for the time being…Over the coming years as the likelihood of the unconventional policy becomes more of a reality, I could see a case for gold at $2,000.”

Gold has also been firming as the world watches protests in Hong Kong and also the uncertainty around U.S., China trade relations. On Tuesday, gold erased its gains and risk assets rallied after the U.S. announced it would hold off on tariffs on consumer products until mid-December.

TD Securities strategists believe the many years of unconventional and easy monetary policy from the world’s central banks has resulted in a shortage of “safe assets” and that’s “evident by the fast growing pile of negative yielding debt, which is ultimately leading to a growing appetite for precious metals.”

“Negative yields are symptomatic for the search for safe assets. The reason they’re trading at negative yields is because the demand for safe assets is bigger than the supply for them,’ said Ghali. “Gold stands to benefit quite a bit from that.. the trade we’ve been recommending we have it as a three moth time horizon. I would argue we are likely on the cusp of a multi-year bull market for gold.”

Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s metals strategist Michael Widmer, in a note, also says negative yields are making gold shine. He said the successive rounds of monetary easing driving bond yields lower and creating $14 trillion in negative yielding debt have also been recently supported gold prices. “With more easing to come, the dynamic will likely sustain a bid for the yellow metal,” he wrote.

But Widmer said all of the rounds of central bank moves, including quantitative easing, have clearly delivered “less bang for the buck” when it comes to stimulus. He said this could result in “quantitative failure,” or an environment where markets focus on high debt levels or the lack of economic growth, and that could lead to volatility.

“At the same time, and perhaps perversely, such a sell-off may prompt central banks to ease more aggressively, making gold an even more attractive asset to hold. We have a relatively conservative 2Q20 forecast of $1,500/oz, but in this scenario, we see scope for gold to rise towards $2,000/oz,” he wrote in a note.

Widmer said central banks are also driving up gold, as they have now become net buyers of the metal. Widmer notes that the World Gold Council expects gold reserves to increase over the next year at central banks.

“The motivation behind the respective reserve strategies varies, with the historical positioning, the long-term store of value, gold’s role as an effective portfolio diversifier and lack of default risk featuring the highest among EM and DM institutions. De-dollarization features as well as a motivation,” Widmer wrote.

Gold futures [for December] are up more than 5.2% in August so far, and 18% for the year so far.

Update: Corrects title to clarify that Daniel Ghali is a strategist at TD Securities


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-13  Authors: patti domm
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Don’t buy gold until it reaches this level, Piper Jaffray technician says

Don’t buy into this rally yet, said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray. The GLD gold ETF peaked at $142.47 earlier this week. Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Tengler Wealth Management, said in mid-July that the gold trade would work as a near-term play. “If I believe that slowing global growth is going to infect the U.S., that interest rates are going negative, then I buy gold,” Tengler said Thursday on “Trading Nation.” The GLD ETF remains 24% below its all-ti


Don’t buy into this rally yet, said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray. The GLD gold ETF peaked at $142.47 earlier this week. Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Tengler Wealth Management, said in mid-July that the gold trade would work as a near-term play. “If I believe that slowing global growth is going to infect the U.S., that interest rates are going negative, then I buy gold,” Tengler said Thursday on “Trading Nation.” The GLD ETF remains 24% below its all-ti
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Don't buy gold until it reaches this level, Piper Jaffray technician says

All that glitters is gold this month.

Gold prices have surged 5% in August as the S&P 500 has tumbled 2%. Its rally has pushed the yellow metal above $1,500 to reach the highest level in more than six years.

Don’t buy into this rally yet, said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray.

“It’s starting to get a little bit ahead of itself,” Johnson said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation. ” “I would trade it this way – I’d wait for this stock, take profits here and now, wait for it to pull back to about $130 on the GLD, then I’d be a buyer on that pullback and confirmation of support.”

The GLD gold ETF peaked at $142.47 earlier this week. It would need to fall 8% from current levels to reach Johnson’s $130 target.

“On the longer-term setup, you can see that there could be measured objective towards about $160 here. Because this is a very meaningful topside break out of a nice consolidation range,” Johnson added.

A move to $160 on the GLD ETF implies 13% upside. It last traded above that level in 2013.

Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Tengler Wealth Management, said in mid-July that the gold trade would work as a near-term play. Since that call, the GLD ETF has rallied 5%.

However, she’s not ready to buy the long-term bull case.

“If I believe that slowing global growth is going to infect the U.S., that interest rates are going negative, then I buy gold,” Tengler said Thursday on “Trading Nation.” “If I think, as I do, that things will consolidate — we’ll ultimately get a China deal, not great, and equities will begin to rally and outperform — then you sell here, and invest in dividend-paying stocks.”

The GLD ETF remains 24% below its all-time peak in September 2011.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-09  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wait, piper, gold, dont, reaches, technician, buy, gld, trade, rally, johnson, etf, level, jaffray, trading, tengler


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Gold surges above $1,500, now has a better return than stocks this year

Wednesday marked the first time since April 2013 that gold traded above $1,500. Currently, there is $15 trillion worth of bonds with negative rates. India’s central bank noted inflation growth was mild and needed to boost the country’s economy. New Zealand’s central bank said lower rates were “necessary to continue to meet its employment and inflation objectives. ” The Thai central bank said it expected economic growth to slow.


Wednesday marked the first time since April 2013 that gold traded above $1,500. Currently, there is $15 trillion worth of bonds with negative rates. India’s central bank noted inflation growth was mild and needed to boost the country’s economy. New Zealand’s central bank said lower rates were “necessary to continue to meet its employment and inflation objectives. ” The Thai central bank said it expected economic growth to slow.
Gold surges above $1,500, now has a better return than stocks this year Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-07  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, economy, rates, surges, gold, 1500, negative, better, metal, global, yuan, bank, level, stocks, central, return


Gold surges above $1,500, now has a better return than stocks this year

Gold rose to its highest level in more than six years on Wednesday as concerns about the global economy made the precious metal and other traditional safe havens more attractive than riskier assets like stocks. The metal also caught a bid as the amount of negative-yielding bonds keeps growing.

Gold futures for December delivery jumped 2.2% to trade at $1,522.70 per ounce. Wednesday marked the first time since April 2013 that gold traded above $1,500. The gains brought the metal’s gains to more than 18%. That return is higher than the S&P 500’s 14.3% year-to-date gain.

Investors turned to gold at a time when the amount of debt trading at negative yield increases. Currently, there is $15 trillion worth of bonds with negative rates. This makes gold more attractive since it retains its value even in times of slower economic growth.

Concerns over the global economy come as the U.S.-China trade war intensified with Chinese authorities allowing the country’s currency, the yuan, to depreciate against the dollar while several central banks around the world cut interest rates.

“That is the biggest factor because it introduces a whole new set of risks to the equation,” said Ryan Giannotto, director of research at GraniteShares. “What’s really playing into people’s fears is does the depreciation of the yuan signify a larger threat to the economy.”

On Monday, China allowed the yuan to weaken beyond 7 per U.S. dollar, marking the currency’s lowest level against the greenback in more than a decade. That move led to Wall Street’s biggest sell-off of 2019. The People’s Bank of China initially quelled escalation fears on Tuesday by pegging the yuan at a stronger-than-forecast level relative to the dollar. However, those worries reemerged after China set the yuan at a weaker-than-expected rate.

China’s currency moves came after President Donald Trump announced last week a 10% tariff on an additional $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. Investors are fearful about the tariff because the goods being targeted include consumer products ranging from apparel to Apple products like the iPhone.

Trade tensions have helped gold surge this month while stocks have lagged. The precious metal is up more than 5% in August. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has dropped more than 4%.

“Although gold futures remain near-term overbought, momentum is decidedly higher,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, in a note. “Fundamentally, the sharp downtrends in bond yields firmly support the bullish case for gold.”

Concerns about the economy have also lifted gold prices while global yields fell.

Central banks in New Zealand, India and Thailand all cut interest rates overnight. New Zealand reduced its overnight rate by 50 basis points while India lowered its rate by 35 basis points. Thailand cut rates by 25 basis points.

The three central banks cited weaker economic growth in one way or another. India’s central bank noted inflation growth was mild and needed to boost the country’s economy. New Zealand’s central bank said lower rates were “necessary to continue to meet its employment and inflation objectives. ” The Thai central bank said it expected economic growth to slow.

The U.S. 10-year note yield fell to its lowest level since 2016, briefly dipping below 1.6%. In Germany, the 10-year bund hit a record low, reaching negative 0.6%.

“The flight to safety has continued across global financial markets,” said Ken Berman, CEO of Gorilla Trades. “Bulls are hoping that the recovery that started yesterday will continue, but volatility is likely to remain elevated.”

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of Doubleline Capital, sees further gains for the precious metal moving forward as yields keep falling.

“At this point, I think the way to think about it is, as long as the volume of negative interest rate bonds outstanding increases, it’s quite likely that gold moves higher in a similar vein,” Gundlach told Yahoo Finance.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-07  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, economy, rates, surges, gold, 1500, negative, better, metal, global, yuan, bank, level, stocks, central, return


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High volatility keeps stocks on edge—5 strategists on what’s next for the market

Tensions between Beijing and Washington have been escalating this week, signaling high risks of volatility in the market. As trade fears intensify, investors are trading stocks for safer assets like gold and Treasury yields. Aakash Doshi, commodities analyst at Citigroup, is bullish on gold and thinks the gold market will only keep rising. If you look in 2018, you saw over 650 tons of net purchases from central banks. Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, said the response of central


Tensions between Beijing and Washington have been escalating this week, signaling high risks of volatility in the market. As trade fears intensify, investors are trading stocks for safer assets like gold and Treasury yields. Aakash Doshi, commodities analyst at Citigroup, is bullish on gold and thinks the gold market will only keep rising. If you look in 2018, you saw over 650 tons of net purchases from central banks. Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, said the response of central
High volatility keeps stocks on edge—5 strategists on what’s next for the market Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-07  Authors: araceli crescencio
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, high, banks, market, investors, whats, central, volatility, look, edge5, strategists, trade, keeps, rates, think, stocks, gold, seen


High volatility keeps stocks on edge—5 strategists on what's next for the market

Market sentiment is in a flutter.

U.S. stocks plunged and then rebounded Wednesday after central banks in New Zealand, India and Thailand cut interest rates amid continued uncertainty over the U.S. trade war with China.

Tensions between Beijing and Washington have been escalating this week, signaling high risks of volatility in the market. As trade fears intensify, investors are trading stocks for safer assets like gold and Treasury yields.

With concerns a global economic slowdown is approaching and no trade deal in sight, experts worry there will be more pain in the market.

Here’s what five experts are watching now:

David Herro, chief investment officer and partner at Harris Associates, said market volatility is something investors have to be ready for.

“You never really know what actually triggers these things. But, we as investors have to expect them. The European Central Bank has had a very low to negative rate policy for a while. And the fact is, that these banks had been able to supplement earnings through other ways, either by cost cuts or marketing investment products, or other types of fee-based income. As result, despite the low interest rates, we have seen acceptable levels of earnings. And to me, this has meant that these banks are yielding anywhere from 8, 9, 10% — safely.”

Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, thinks there is a 1-in-3 chance of a U.S. recession in the near future.

“I think the reason that the attention that we’re paying is more to the bond market than the equity market at this point, is because the central bankers have gotten out in front, a bit. We haven’t seen major economies falling into recession yet. The U.S. looks like it’s still pretty far from recession. We think it’s only about a 1 in 3 chance over the next year, and you need to see the trade-war escalate in order for that to become a big risk. But, because you have central bankers cutting rates … last week we were talking about the Fed … why are they cutting rates? Is this a preemptive measure? Now it looks like they should have done 50 [basis-points cut]. And the problem is, looking at the probabilities, if the Fed just delivers on what the market is expecting, it’s not going to have an impact. Even the announcement … of additional rate cuts, at this point is not going to be helpful. So, do they come out with a surprise? Do they come intra-meeting? Do they go 50 in September? I think these things all have to be on the table, if they want this to have an impact. But, I think they do have to give some lip service to the reason we are doing this, is because of the uncertainty that is being created by trade. Not just the sort of the mathematical damage from the tax-increases themselves, but the uncertainty we are creating down the road for lack of investment and potentially in the third quarter now, lack of consumer spending. ”

R. Burns McKinney, portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, said there are two places he’s going into as safe havens, amid constant uncertainty in the market.

“There’s obviously no place to hide within equities on a day like this. And this is a continuation of what we’ve seen for quite some time of these binary markets where you basically have either monetary policy or trade policy … steering the markets right and left. To some degree, you have stocks moving so much together that it makes it harder and harder to find companies that are trading on their own fundamentals. I think that a lot of the defensive sectors have been bid up to the point where if you go to defensives, well you’re paying so much for that insurance that it loses a lot of its defensive nature. And so, I think probably one of the first places we’re suggesting investors look, and that we’re going into are both divided payers and really specifically companies that are growing their dividends. Dividend paying names tend to be a little bit less volatile than the market. And they do offer stability in this type of situation. And just, look for company specific stories. Places like, for example, the defense sector is one place that investors might look, where you do have that stability, but they haven’t been bid up to the same degree that consumer staples or even utilities have.”

Aakash Doshi, commodities analyst at Citigroup, is bullish on gold and thinks the gold market will only keep rising.

“What we’re seeing broadly across the OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] and emerging markets is clearly a bullish factor for gold. But, it’s not just nominal yields that matter. If you look at even in the U.S., real yields at the belly of the curve, if you look at the 5-year and 10-year sector—we’re already approaching zero. And in that context, we haven’t been there since 2016. And I think that’s a very favorable environment for gold, which I would model as a long-duration, zero coupon asset. So, gold is really benefiting from this central bank easing. Just one more point on the central bank side globally, it’s not just that central banks are cutting rates in this environment, but it’s also the fact that the central banks are buying record amounts of gold. If you look in 2018, you saw over 650 tons of net purchases from central banks. … In the first-half of this year we saw 374 tons. So, we’re already on pace to eclipse my 700 ton central bank forecast for net gold buying in 2019. So, this is a very constructive environment not only from a rates channel, but also from an official sector purchase channel. ”

Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, said the response of central banks has been unlike anything he’s seen in the past.

“We had central banks begin to cut a bit more aggressively than people thought, particularly the New Zealand bank and they began talking about rates possibly going ultimately negative. And that would have strong implications for Australia, and maybe even in Canada—and that brings us much closer to home. And what happened then, was rates around the world began to accelerate to the downside, and that basically spooked the equity markets. There was this ‘Wait a minute, what’s out there? You know, what’s happening? Is there something bigger than I see?’ And that’s what took us down. You can go back to the ancient Sumerians, trading commodities, and we’ve never seen negative rates.”

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-07  Authors: araceli crescencio
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, high, banks, market, investors, whats, central, volatility, look, edge5, strategists, trade, keeps, rates, think, stocks, gold, seen


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