Top Cisco executives: We anticipated Trump’s China tariff hike, but anything more is worrisome

Two of Cisco Systems’ top executives told CNBC that additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports would not just harm the San Jose, California-based network equipment maker but American industries as a whole. “If it goes to all China imports it’s not only going to impact us, but it’s going to impact every industry,” Cisco CFO Kelly Kramer said Wednesday evening on CNBC’s “Mad Money. ” For its part, in retaliation for the moves by the U.S., China announced plans Monday to raise tariffs rates on $60


Two of Cisco Systems’ top executives told CNBC that additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports would not just harm the San Jose, California-based network equipment maker but American industries as a whole. “If it goes to all China imports it’s not only going to impact us, but it’s going to impact every industry,” Cisco CFO Kelly Kramer said Wednesday evening on CNBC’s “Mad Money. ” For its part, in retaliation for the moves by the U.S., China announced plans Monday to raise tariffs rates on $60
Top Cisco executives: We anticipated Trump’s China tariff hike, but anything more is worrisome Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-16  Authors: jessica bursztynsky
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, tariff, worrisome, hike, executives, chinese, week, billion, walmart, china, trumps, imports, tariffs, anticipated, kramer, trump, cisco


Top Cisco executives: We anticipated Trump's China tariff hike, but anything more is worrisome

Two of Cisco Systems’ top executives told CNBC that additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports would not just harm the San Jose, California-based network equipment maker but American industries as a whole.

“If it goes to all China imports it’s not only going to impact us, but it’s going to impact every industry,” Cisco CFO Kelly Kramer said Wednesday evening on CNBC’s “Mad Money. ”

With a stalemate in trade talks, the Trump administration this week released a list of about $300 billion in Chinese goods that could be hit with tariffs, which effectively would put duties on all of China’s imports into the U.S.

Cisco Chairman and CEO Chuck Robbins, sitting next to Kramer, said the company was prepared for last week’s tariff hike to 25% from 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, making the increase “relatively immaterial at this point and built in to our guidance.”

For its part, in retaliation for the moves by the U.S., China announced plans Monday to raise tariffs rates on $60 billion of U.S. goods.

In reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings, revenue and forward guidance after the bell Wednesday, Cisco said it had been reducing its manufacturing in China in anticipation of the latest White House move, which President Donald Trump had been threatening for some time.

“The reason we’ve been able to mitigate … is it’s only it’s a portion of the business,” Kramer said. “We’ll adjust” if that changes, she added.

Meanwhile, Walmart CFO Brett Biggs echoed similar sentiments, saying Thursday that tariffs could lead to higher prices. “Increased tariffs will increase prices for customers,” he said.

Like Cisco, Walmart also reported strong quarterly results. Both companies’ stocks are components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. With Cisco shares up 7% and Walmart rising nearly 2%, the Dow was heading Thursday for a three-session winning streak, after a dismal start to the week on a barrage of negative trade headlines.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-16  Authors: jessica bursztynsky
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, tariff, worrisome, hike, executives, chinese, week, billion, walmart, china, trumps, imports, tariffs, anticipated, kramer, trump, cisco


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Here’s why global stocks aren’t sinking despite the US tariff hike

A global stock market sell-off started to ease on Friday despite the U.S. fulfilling a promise to ramp up tariffs on Chinese goods. The U.S. hiked tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods at 12:01 a.m. In response, Beijing said it “deeply regrets” the tariff hike and would take countermeasures — though no specifics were provided. Markets across the globe initially fell overnight but were quick to bounce back and trade higher. Uncertainty over trade talks will linger, but so


A global stock market sell-off started to ease on Friday despite the U.S. fulfilling a promise to ramp up tariffs on Chinese goods. The U.S. hiked tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods at 12:01 a.m. In response, Beijing said it “deeply regrets” the tariff hike and would take countermeasures — though no specifics were provided. Markets across the globe initially fell overnight but were quick to bounce back and trade higher. Uncertainty over trade talks will linger, but so
Here’s why global stocks aren’t sinking despite the US tariff hike Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-10  Authors: spriha srivastava, artyom ivanov, tass, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, tariffs, war, despite, stocks, sinking, nearly, initially, worth, hike, global, heres, higher, chinese, twolargest, worlds, arent, tariff


Here's why global stocks aren't sinking despite the US tariff hike

A global stock market sell-off started to ease on Friday despite the U.S. fulfilling a promise to ramp up tariffs on Chinese goods.

The U.S. hiked tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods at 12:01 a.m. ET Friday. In response, Beijing said it “deeply regrets” the tariff hike and would take countermeasures — though no specifics were provided.

Markets across the globe initially fell overnight but were quick to bounce back and trade higher. In Asia, mainland Chinese stocks jumped with the Shanghai composite rising more than 3%. In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 traded nearly 1% higher in early deals with the German DAX up by the same amount. Stateside, Dow futures initially slipped and pointed to nearly triple-digit losses at the open, but soon recovered.

Uncertainty over trade talks will linger, but some analysts believe investors are still optimistic that the world’s two-largest economies will avoid a full-blown trade war.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-10  Authors: spriha srivastava, artyom ivanov, tass, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, tariffs, war, despite, stocks, sinking, nearly, initially, worth, hike, global, heres, higher, chinese, twolargest, worlds, arent, tariff


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US companies are preparing for pain ahead of tariff hike: ‘I can’t sit here and cry’

Those tariffs, which the administration first implemented in 2018, are set to jump to 25% from 10% Friday morning. The taxes impact a wide variety of goods, ranging from pumps and turbines to electrical and computer components. Traders punished equities in turn, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 650 points so far this week. The broad S&P 500 index was down about 2.5% week to date at the time this article was published. I think the issue really boils to — I think both partie


Those tariffs, which the administration first implemented in 2018, are set to jump to 25% from 10% Friday morning. The taxes impact a wide variety of goods, ranging from pumps and turbines to electrical and computer components. Traders punished equities in turn, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 650 points so far this week. The broad S&P 500 index was down about 2.5% week to date at the time this article was published. I think the issue really boils to — I think both partie
US companies are preparing for pain ahead of tariff hike: ‘I can’t sit here and cry’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-09  Authors: thomas franck, timothy aeppel, luke sharrett, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, week, pain, ahead, price, companies, cry, trump, trade, stanley, preparing, cant, tariffs, wide, sp, think, sit, tariff, took, hike


US companies are preparing for pain ahead of tariff hike: 'I can't sit here and cry'

In a tweet that took many on Wall Street off guard, Trump said Sunday the U.S. would increase levies on $200 billion of Chinese imports starting Friday. Those tariffs, which the administration first implemented in 2018, are set to jump to 25% from 10% Friday morning.

The taxes impact a wide variety of goods, ranging from pumps and turbines to electrical and computer components.

The announcement stunned many investors, who’d expected the U.S.-China trade deliberation to finish on a positive note this week after months of tamer dialogue. Traders punished equities in turn, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 650 points so far this week.

The broad S&P 500 index was down about 2.5% week to date at the time this article was published.

The week’s losses — currently the worst since the 2018 Christmastime plunge — were likely the impetus for a number of comments by and questions for a slew of S&P 500 companies that reported financial results this week. While many CEOs took the opportunity to explain to shareholders the plans to soften the blow on their post-earnings conference calls, others were more blunt.

The trade disputes are “something we have to manage. I can’t sit here and cry and hold my breath. I’ve got to deal with them,” Emerson Electric Chairman and CEO David Farr said Tuesday on his company’s earnings conference call. “I still believe we’ll get a deal done. I think the issue really boils to — I think both parties are testing each leader on the give and take.”

“I’m glad to hear they are going to go ahead and meet this week. But I think this is going to go back and forth a couple more times,” he added.

Emerson Electric, which manufactures products and provides engineering services for a wide range of industries, said its global manufacturing end markets saw slower growth in part thanks to inventory rebalancing in the U.S. from last year’s tariff impacts and price increases.

Toolmakers Stanley Black & Decker and Snap-On said they’re taking steps to ease the pain of higher supply costs as a result of the Trump administration’s tariffs. Stanley Black & Decker CEO James Loree said his company’s been raising prices for consumers to help offset steeper input expenses.

“When you finally add it all up, I mean, the price recovery against the tariffs only amounted to about 40%, or between 40% and 50%,” he said on April 24. “So there was a big chunk of inflation-related cost that was not covered by the price as well as some of the tariffs.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-09  Authors: thomas franck, timothy aeppel, luke sharrett, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, week, pain, ahead, price, companies, cry, trump, trade, stanley, preparing, cant, tariffs, wide, sp, think, sit, tariff, took, hike


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Powell says Fed doesn’t see strong case for rate cut or hike

We don’t see a strong case for moving in either direction,” Powell said during a news conference after the central bank’s policy meeting this week. Before the chairman’s comments, traders on the fed funds futures market had been pricing in about a 67% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year. That probability had been reduced to about 55%, according to the CME’s tracker of trading in the Fed’s benchmark rate. The president has cited low inflation as a key reason for the Fed to cut. Other meas


We don’t see a strong case for moving in either direction,” Powell said during a news conference after the central bank’s policy meeting this week. Before the chairman’s comments, traders on the fed funds futures market had been pricing in about a 67% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year. That probability had been reduced to about 55%, according to the CME’s tracker of trading in the Fed’s benchmark rate. The president has cited low inflation as a key reason for the Fed to cut. Other meas
Powell says Fed doesn’t see strong case for rate cut or hike Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-01  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, rate, strong, case, showed, market, doesnt, inflation, rates, policy, powell, hike, cut, feds, federal, fed


Powell says Fed doesn't see strong case for rate cut or hike

The Federal Reserve feels comfortable with current policy and is likely to keep interest rates steady for an extended period of time, Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday.

Powell’s comments coincided with a sharp stock market sell-off attributed to worries that the Fed would not be cutting rates anytime soon, contrary to market pricing.

“We do think our policy stance is appropriate right now. We don’t see a strong case for moving in either direction,” Powell said during a news conference after the central bank’s policy meeting this week.

Before the chairman’s comments, traders on the fed funds futures market had been pricing in about a 67% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year. That probability had been reduced to about 55%, according to the CME’s tracker of trading in the Fed’s benchmark rate.

In a move that met market expectations, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to keep the benchmark rate in a range between 2.25% and 2.5%.

President Donald Trump has exerted an unusual level of public pressure to get the Fed to lower rates, suggesting Tuesday that a 1 percentage point cut would be in order.

Without addressing Trump’s criticisms directly, Powell said that absent a significant change in conditions, the current policy will prevail.

The president has cited low inflation as a key reason for the Fed to cut. Powell, though, said that he expects inflation to run close to the central bank’s 2% goal.

“If we did see inflation running persistently below [the goal], that is something the committee would be concerned about, something we would take into account when setting policy,” Powell said in response to a question from CNBC’s Steve Liesman.

The Fed’s favored inflation gauge showed a 12-month gain of 1.6% in March. Powell acknowledged that the reading was below what he had expected, but he called the pressures that drove inflation lower “transient” and likely to revert as the reading gets closer to the Fed’s goal. Among the transitory factors he cited were a decline in financial services fees after the stock market’s fourth-quarter slide, as well as health-care costs.

Other measures besides the personal consumption expenditures index have showed inflation around 2%. The Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean PCE indicator as well as the core consumer price index both showed a 2% gain in March.

As the market digested Powell’s comments, stocks took a sharp turn downward and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day off 163 points.

Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank, said some of the issue was that traders misinterpreted a technical adjustment the Fed made to the interest it pays on excess bank reserves.

The Federal Open Market Committee reduced the rate by 5 basis points to 2.35%, a move the market initially interpreted as a dovish tilt for the policymaking group. However, Powell explained at his post-meeting news conference that the move was done simply to keep the benchmark fed funds rate within its target range of 2.25% to 2.5% and did not represent a policy shift.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-01  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, rate, strong, case, showed, market, doesnt, inflation, rates, policy, powell, hike, cut, feds, federal, fed


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Scott Minerd, who manages $265 billion for Guggenheim, says the Fed’s next move will be a hike

The Federal Reserve’s next move on monetary policy will be a rate hike as the U.S. economy remains strong and an overseas rebound may be at hand, according to Guggenheim Partners’ chief investment officer. “Some believe we may have seen the Federal Reserve’s last rate hike in this cycle, and that the next step from here will be a cut in rates,” said Scott Minerd in a note to clients released Monday afternoon. Minerd, whose firm manages $265 billion in assets, said the U.S. economy is doing “just


The Federal Reserve’s next move on monetary policy will be a rate hike as the U.S. economy remains strong and an overseas rebound may be at hand, according to Guggenheim Partners’ chief investment officer. “Some believe we may have seen the Federal Reserve’s last rate hike in this cycle, and that the next step from here will be a cut in rates,” said Scott Minerd in a note to clients released Monday afternoon. Minerd, whose firm manages $265 billion in assets, said the U.S. economy is doing “just
Scott Minerd, who manages $265 billion for Guggenheim, says the Fed’s next move will be a hike Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-29  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, billion, rates, growth, cut, hike, manages, scott, market, start, 265, economy, fed, minerd, feds, rate, guggenheim


Scott Minerd, who manages $265 billion for Guggenheim, says the Fed's next move will be a hike

The Federal Reserve’s next move on monetary policy will be a rate hike as the U.S. economy remains strong and an overseas rebound may be at hand, according to Guggenheim Partners’ chief investment officer.

“Some believe we may have seen the Federal Reserve’s last rate hike in this cycle, and that the next step from here will be a cut in rates,” said Scott Minerd in a note to clients released Monday afternoon. “I believe that view is plainly wrong.”

Minerd, whose firm manages $265 billion in assets, said the U.S. economy is doing “just fine” while China’s economic growth is back on track with both fiscal and monetary stimulus in place. Improving Chinese growth will also benefit Japan given their “close trading ties,” he said. In Europe, the European Central Bank has adopted a more dovish stance after issuing cheap loans for banks in the region while German manufacturing should stabilize, Minerd added. “All this adds up to continued growth which will ultimately lead the Fed to increase rates again.”

Minerd will be on CNBC with Brian Sullivan at 2:40 p.m. ET.

The Fed last hiked rates in December, sparking fears that the central bank may be tightening policy too fast, thus potentially triggering a recession. That hike contributed to a massive sell-off in the last month of 2018 and pushed the S&P 500 to its worst annual performance since 2008. At the time, Minerd said there was a 50% chance the Fed would cut rates in 2019.

This year, however, the central bank reversed course. The Fed does not expect to raise rates once this year. The market has gone a step further and started pricing in rate cuts. Market expectations for a rate cut in October are more than 52%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The reversal sent equities flying. The S&P 500 is up more than 17% this year and hit an intraday record earlier on Monday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is doing far better than expected to start off 2019. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.2% in the first quarter — its best start to a year since 2015 — the Commerce Department said Friday.

“Of course, markets will not wait for action by the Fed and will start to reprice in anticipation of possible future hikes,” Minerd wrote. “Currently, the bond market is priced for an ease. Ultimately, the market will take that back and more by the fourth quarter, which will lead to a steepening in the yield curve in coming months.”

Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-29  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, billion, rates, growth, cut, hike, manages, scott, market, start, 265, economy, fed, minerd, feds, rate, guggenheim


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Hit by rent hike at New York flagship, Barneys New York gets lifeline with $50 million in credit

Luxury retailer Barneys New York just got a lifeline. Barneys has been backed by Perry Capital, the fund run by Richard Perry and Ronald Burkle, since 2012. Chinese shoppers are expected to comprise 46 percent of the global luxury market by 2025, according to consulting firm Bain. By 2025, online shopping will make up a quarter of the luxury market, up from 10 percent today, according to Bain. Ralph Lauren closed its Fifth Avenue store in 2017, while Hudson’s Bay Company’s Lord & Taylor closed i


Luxury retailer Barneys New York just got a lifeline. Barneys has been backed by Perry Capital, the fund run by Richard Perry and Ronald Burkle, since 2012. Chinese shoppers are expected to comprise 46 percent of the global luxury market by 2025, according to consulting firm Bain. By 2025, online shopping will make up a quarter of the luxury market, up from 10 percent today, according to Bain. Ralph Lauren closed its Fifth Avenue store in 2017, while Hudson’s Bay Company’s Lord & Taylor closed i
Hit by rent hike at New York flagship, Barneys New York gets lifeline with $50 million in credit Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-04  Authors: lauren hirsch, jin lee, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, hike, york, rent, luxury, gets, credit, flagship, avenue, capital, hit, barneys, store, wells, market, million, retailer, perry, lifeline


Hit by rent hike at New York flagship, Barneys New York gets lifeline with $50 million in credit

Luxury retailer Barneys New York just got a lifeline.

The retailer has extended the term of its credit line by $50 million, giving it money for growth, as well as needed liquidity to weather industry challenges and a rent hike at its famed New York flagship, people familiar with the talks told CNBC.

Rent at Barneys’ flagship on Madison Avenue jumped from roughly $16 million to approximately $30 million in January, nearly wiping out its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, the people said. Barneys unsuccessfully tried to halt the rent hike. The company says it still has positive EBITDA and projects positive EBITDA for the year and beyond.

The retailer has roughly $850 million in sales, a person familiar said.

Despite reports earlier this week that Barneys is looking to downsize its Madison Avenue store, the company has no such plans, a spokesperson for Barneys said.

The financing, which comes as an extension of the company’s current credit agreement with Wells Fargo adds in new lender, TPG Sixth Street Partners. TSSP, which was established as a strategic partnership with private equity firm TPG Capital, is a long-term oriented fund with private and public companies as clients.

A Barney’s spokesperson said in a statement, “Barneys New York has a long-standing business relationship with Wells Fargo. Our most recent agreement is an extension of our current credit agreement that we have had in place with Wells Fargo since 2012. The additional capital will support our business growth plans with new store openings and renovations, innovative in-store and digital experiences, and international growth initiatives.”

The company recently announced it will begin to sell high-end cannabis items in its stores.

Barneys has been backed by Perry Capital, the fund run by Richard Perry and Ronald Burkle, since 2012. That deal, structured as a debt-for-equity swap, helped the tony retailer prevent bankruptcy. But turmoil continued to rattle the retailer as Perry closed his fund four years later, citing industry and market headwinds.

Perry Capital has since largely existed as a “zombie fund,” in which it has owned Barneys but has not put more money into it. After its deal with Wells Fargo and TSSP, Perry Capital will continue to own the retailer, the people said.

Barneys, like many of its peers, is struggling to combat the rise of online shopping and brands that are looking to sell directly to their shoppers rather than go through a third-party stores.

Adding pressure to luxury goods brands, including Coach-owner Tapestry and jeweler Tiffany, is the slowdown they’ve seen as Chinese tourist spending in the U.S. tapers. Chinese shoppers are expected to comprise 46 percent of the global luxury market by 2025, according to consulting firm Bain. This ties the fortunes of the luxury market closely to the economic swings of the Chinese economy.

Online luxury sales, meantime, continue to grow, as premium websites like Farfetch have developed services and technology that can replicate online the high-end shopping experience for which brands like Chanel are known. Shares of London-based Farfetch, which listed on the New York Stock Exchange last year, are up 47 percent this year, giving it a market capitalization of $8 billion.

By 2025, online shopping will make up a quarter of the luxury market, up from 10 percent today, according to Bain.

With that backdrop, the Manhattan luxury retail landscape continues to evolve, as retailers can no longer afford to use the city’s expensive midtown property as a marketing tool. Ralph Lauren closed its Fifth Avenue store in 2017, while Hudson’s Bay Company’s Lord & Taylor closed its Fifth Avenue flagship in January.

Outside of midtown, new openings continue. Saks Fifth Avenue opened a women’s store in Battery Park’s Brookfield Place in 2016, before shuttering roughly two years later. A men’s store is still open. In March, premium shopping area Hudson Yards opened on the far West Side, with high-end Neiman Marcus as its anchor. The same month, the retailer reached a deal with its lenders to extend the maturities of $2.5 billion of its nearly $5 billion debt load.

Barneys dates to 1923, when Barney Pressman opened a men’s discount clothing store on Seventh Avenue and 17th Street. In the 1960s, Barney’s son, Fred, helped transition from a discount store to a luxury retailer. Barneys soon made its imprint on New York luxury fashion, building on its foothold in menswear and introducing designers like Giorgio Armani.

Barneys has more than 10 namesake stores, in New York, California, Chicago, Massachusetts, Las Vegas, Seattle and Pennsylvania. It also has a number of Barneys Warehouse outlet stores and Fred’s restaurants.

In 2017, it named its former chief operating officer, Daniella Vitale, as CEO.

The people requested anonymity because the information is confidential. Wells Fargo and TSSP declined to comment. Perry Capital wasn’t available to comment.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-04  Authors: lauren hirsch, jin lee, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, hike, york, rent, luxury, gets, credit, flagship, avenue, capital, hit, barneys, store, wells, market, million, retailer, perry, lifeline


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It’s not too soon for a Fed interest rate cut, according to this chart

The bond market has quickly priced in a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year, just days after the Fed said it would stop raising rates. The Fed last hiked interest rates by a quarter point in December. That would leave interest rates unchanged for the balance of the year, with the Fed expecting one more increase next year. There are three conditions that need to be met for the Fed to reverse course and cut interest rates, LaVorgna said. In the current cycle, the Federal Reserve began rais


The bond market has quickly priced in a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year, just days after the Fed said it would stop raising rates. The Fed last hiked interest rates by a quarter point in December. That would leave interest rates unchanged for the balance of the year, with the Fed expecting one more increase next year. There are three conditions that need to be met for the Fed to reverse course and cut interest rates, LaVorgna said. In the current cycle, the Federal Reserve began rais
It’s not too soon for a Fed interest rate cut, according to this chart Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-26  Authors: patti domm, james lawler duggan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, fed, chart, interest, rates, rate, soon, quarter, federal, tightening, hike, zero, cut, according


It's not too soon for a Fed interest rate cut, according to this chart

The bond market has quickly priced in a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year, just days after the Fed said it would stop raising rates.

That has been a surprise to many investors, but it shouldn’t be — if history is a guide.

Joseph LaVorgna, Natixis’ economist for the Americas, studied the last five tightening cycles and found there was an average of just 6.6 months from the Federal Reserve’s last interest rate hike in a hiking cycle to its first rate cut.

The economist points out, however, that the amount of time between hike and cut has been lengthening.

“For example, there was only one month from the last tightening in August 1984 to the first easing in September 1984. This was followed by a four-month window succeeding the July 1989 increase in rates, a five-month gap after the February 1995 hike, an eight-month interlude from May 2000 to January 2001, and then a record 15- month span between June 2006 and September 2007,” he wrote.

The Fed last hiked interest rates by a quarter point in December. Last week, it confirmed a new dovish policy stance by eliminating two rate hikes from its forecast for this year. That would leave interest rates unchanged for the balance of the year, with the Fed expecting one more increase next year.

But the fed funds futures market has quickly moved to price in a full fledged 25 basis point easing, or cut, for this year.

“The market’s saying it’s going to happen in December,” said LaVorgna.

There are three conditions that need to be met for the Fed to reverse course and cut interest rates, LaVorgna said. First, the economy’s bounce back after the first quarter slump would have to be weaker than expected, with growth just around potential. Secondly, there would have to be signs that inflation is either undershooting the Fed’s 2 percent target or even decelerating. Finally, the Fed would have to see a tightening of financial conditions, with stock prices under pressure and credit spreads widening.

LaVorgna said the condition of a sluggish economy could be met.

“I don’t think the economy did very well in the first quarter just based on the fact the momentum downshifted hard from Q4, sentiment was awful, production was soft,” he said. ‘I’m worried growth is close to zero in the first quarter.”

LaVorgna said he does not see much of a snap back in the second quarter.

In the current cycle, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in December 2015 after taking the fed funds target rate to zero during the financial crisis.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-26  Authors: patti domm, james lawler duggan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, fed, chart, interest, rates, rate, soon, quarter, federal, tightening, hike, zero, cut, according


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The Fed is ‘not yet done’ with rate hikes, according to S&P Global Ratings

Still expecting one more rate hike from Fed this year: Analyst 3:16 AM ET Thu, 21 March 2019 | 02:39The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged and slashed all projections of a rate hike this year. Still, according to U.S.-based financial services giant S&P Global Ratings, the Fed is “not yet done” with rate hikes. Speaking to CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Thursday, Shaun Roache said better-than-expected economic growth and strong labor markets leave room for a hike. The


Still expecting one more rate hike from Fed this year: Analyst 3:16 AM ET Thu, 21 March 2019 | 02:39The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged and slashed all projections of a rate hike this year. Still, according to U.S.-based financial services giant S&P Global Ratings, the Fed is “not yet done” with rate hikes. Speaking to CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Thursday, Shaun Roache said better-than-expected economic growth and strong labor markets leave room for a hike. The
The Fed is ‘not yet done’ with rate hikes, according to S&P Global Ratings Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-22  Authors: shirley tay, andrew harrer, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, federal, ratings, growth, rate, roache, hike, fed, projections, global, increase, according, hikes, sp


The Fed is 'not yet done' with rate hikes, according to S&P Global Ratings

Still expecting one more rate hike from Fed this year: Analyst 3:16 AM ET Thu, 21 March 2019 | 02:39

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged and slashed all projections of a rate hike this year.

Still, according to U.S.-based financial services giant S&P Global Ratings, the Fed is “not yet done” with rate hikes. Its chief Asia-Pacific economist told CNBC he thinks another increase may come sometime this year or early next year.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Thursday, Shaun Roache said better-than-expected economic growth and strong labor markets leave room for a hike.

Wednesday’s statement was a dovish turn from previous Federal Open Market Committee projections. The committee had previously predicted two rate hikes in 2019, following four increases in 2018.

The FOMC said it would be “patient” before any further increase in rates.

Given the “soft patch” the global economy is going through, Roache acknowledged that “it makes sense for the Fed to pause to watch the data to see how things evolve.” Still, he said he felt that concerns about global growth were “a little bit overdone.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-22  Authors: shirley tay, andrew harrer, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, federal, ratings, growth, rate, roache, hike, fed, projections, global, increase, according, hikes, sp


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Why the dollar could keep rising this year even if the Fed doesn’t hike — further vexing Trump

“The dollar has stayed bid on the back of safe-haven demand,” said Peter Ng, senior FX trader at Silicon Valley Bank. “The global slowdown is affecting everyone and at the current moment, it doesn’t seem like there are any good replacements for the dollar.” Investors across the globe and asset classes are fretting over the possibility of a slowdown in economic growth amid weakening data. In the U.S., jobs creation came to an almost screeching halt in February as only 20,000 jobs were added. In E


“The dollar has stayed bid on the back of safe-haven demand,” said Peter Ng, senior FX trader at Silicon Valley Bank. “The global slowdown is affecting everyone and at the current moment, it doesn’t seem like there are any good replacements for the dollar.” Investors across the globe and asset classes are fretting over the possibility of a slowdown in economic growth amid weakening data. In the U.S., jobs creation came to an almost screeching halt in February as only 20,000 jobs were added. In E
Why the dollar could keep rising this year even if the Fed doesn’t hike — further vexing Trump Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-12  Authors: fred imbert, getty images, chris goodney, bloomberg, mark wilson
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, vexing, slowdown, bank, doesnt, 11, dollar, growth, rising, added, economic, current, trump, hike, fed, 2019, jobs


Why the dollar could keep rising this year even if the Fed doesn't hike — further vexing Trump

Westpac sees the US dollar ’tilting higher’ in 2H of 2019 4:21 AM ET Mon, 11 March 2019 | 03:20

The dollar’s rise defies the consensus from earlier in the year that the U.S. currency would go down as the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate hikes. New tame inflation data on Tuesday supported the Fed’s new tack.

“The dollar has stayed bid on the back of safe-haven demand,” said Peter Ng, senior FX trader at Silicon Valley Bank. “The global slowdown is affecting everyone and at the current moment, it doesn’t seem like there are any good replacements for the dollar.”

Investors across the globe and asset classes are fretting over the possibility of a slowdown in economic growth amid weakening data.

Chinese exports dropped 20.7 percent in February from the year-earlier period, missing expectations.

In the U.S., jobs creation came to an almost screeching halt in February as only 20,000 jobs were added. Economists polled by Refinitv expected the U.S. economy to have added 180,000 jobs last month. Some experts, however, attributed some of the hiring weakness to factors like weather and lingering effects from the government shutdown.

In Europe, the European Central Bank slashed its euro zone growth forecast for 2019 to 1.1 percent from 1.7 percent. ECB President Mario Draghi said Thursday there is a “sizable moderation in economic expansion that will extend into the current year.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-12  Authors: fred imbert, getty images, chris goodney, bloomberg, mark wilson
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, vexing, slowdown, bank, doesnt, 11, dollar, growth, rising, added, economic, current, trump, hike, fed, 2019, jobs


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House Democrats take a big step toward passing $15 per hour US minimum wage

“Going from a $7.25 an hour federal minimum wage to a $15 an hour minimum wage is, at best, a foolish policy proposal,” committee ranking member Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., said Wednesday. The debate over a $15 per hour federal minimum wage comes as states and cities around the country have increasingly embraced the wage floor. Last month, New Jersey and Illinois became the fourth and fifth states to pass $15 per hour minimum wages. Some critics of a federal minimum wage hike have argued states


“Going from a $7.25 an hour federal minimum wage to a $15 an hour minimum wage is, at best, a foolish policy proposal,” committee ranking member Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., said Wednesday. The debate over a $15 per hour federal minimum wage comes as states and cities around the country have increasingly embraced the wage floor. Last month, New Jersey and Illinois became the fourth and fifth states to pass $15 per hour minimum wages. Some critics of a federal minimum wage hike have argued states
House Democrats take a big step toward passing $15 per hour US minimum wage Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-06  Authors: jacob pramuk, sergio flores, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, workers, wages, minimum, 15, democrats, federal, virginia, hike, step, passing, states, hour, big, house, wage


House Democrats take a big step toward passing $15 per hour US minimum wage

Democrats see the measure as a way to cast themselves as the better party for working Americans ahead of key 2020 presidential and congressional elections. They have cast Republicans as out of touch — particularly through criticizing the GOP tax cuts for corporations and wealthy Americans.

Democrats say the legislation would give nearly 40 million American workers a raise. They argue the increase will help laborers better keep up with rising costs of living, and boost the economy by giving those workers more money to spend. Under the bill, the pay floor would rise to $15 per hour in 2024 and would continue to climb in line with median wage growth.

“We now have an opportunity – and a responsibility – to restore the value of the minimum wage, lift millions of hardworking people out of poverty, and boost the economy in Main Street America,” Rep. Bobby Scott, a Virginia Democrat and chairman of the Education and Labor Committee, said in opening a bill markup hearing Wednesday.

Republicans have argued the plan would hurt small-business owners by increasing costs. It would force them to cut positions and hours for low-wage workers and potentially increase automation, critics contend.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the most powerful business organization in the nation, has also lined up against the legislation.

“Going from a $7.25 an hour federal minimum wage to a $15 an hour minimum wage is, at best, a foolish policy proposal,” committee ranking member Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., said Wednesday. “At worst, it’s an intentionally dishonest political stunt that promises bigger paychecks to hardworking Americans when in reality it would result in significant job losses for millions of hourly workers around the country.”

The debate over a $15 per hour federal minimum wage comes as states and cities around the country have increasingly embraced the wage floor. Organizations such as Fight for $15 have pushed governments around the country to hike their minimum wages.

In a statement distributed by Fight for $15, Bobby Fields, a McDonald’s worker in Florida, said members of the organization moved “one step closer” to their goal on Wednesday. “We’re going to keep on fighting and keep on going on strike until all workers get the $15 minimum wage and a union we need,” he said.

Last month, New Jersey and Illinois became the fourth and fifth states to pass $15 per hour minimum wages. Twenty-nine states currently have higher minimum wages than the federal level, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Some critics of a federal minimum wage hike have argued states should decide appropriate pay floors based on cost of living. In October, White House chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow called a U.S. wage hike a “terrible idea,” arguing that “Idaho is different than New York.”

WATCH: Minimum wages rising in 20 states, several cities


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-06  Authors: jacob pramuk, sergio flores, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, workers, wages, minimum, 15, democrats, federal, virginia, hike, step, passing, states, hour, big, house, wage


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