Don’t count out Jeremy Corbyn in the UK’s general election

Regarding the UK election on Dec. 12, the oddsmakers and the pollsters say that Boris Johnson is “on course for a comfortable majority.” YouGov also found that 54 per cent thought Mr Johnson came across as more prime ministerial, compared with 29 per cent for Mr Corbyn. Fifty-nine per cent said, however, that the Labour leader was more in touch with ordinary voters, compared with 25 per cent for Mr Johnson. Now that Cummings is running the Johnson campaign, he has chosen a strikingly similar mes


Regarding the UK election on Dec. 12, the oddsmakers and the pollsters say that Boris Johnson is “on course for a comfortable majority.”
YouGov also found that 54 per cent thought Mr Johnson came across as more prime ministerial, compared with 29 per cent for Mr Corbyn.
Fifty-nine per cent said, however, that the Labour leader was more in touch with ordinary voters, compared with 25 per cent for Mr Johnson.
Now that Cummings is running the Johnson campaign, he has chosen a strikingly similar mes
Don’t count out Jeremy Corbyn in the UK’s general election Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-04  Authors: john ellis, editor of online publication news items
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, cent, election, jeremy, corbyn, message, yougov, johnson, general, count, labour, dont, campaign, uks, way


Don't count out Jeremy Corbyn in the UK's general election

Regarding the UK election on Dec. 12, the oddsmakers and the pollsters say that Boris Johnson is “on course for a comfortable majority.” The question is: Is that true?

It certainly appears to be true. The Times of London recently commissioned a massive survey of the British electorate, went through it constituency-by-constituency, weighted the results accordingly and came away with the following:

The Conservatives would win 359 seats, Labour 211, the SNP 43 and the Liberal Democrats 13 if the election were held today, according to a seat-by-seat analysis based on polling by YouGov for The Times.

Eurointelligence, a smart and useful newsletter about all things Europe, offered this assessment of the YouGov poll results:

We think the poll is more or less a good description of the status quo – not so much because of its technology, but its sheer size. YouGov interviewed some 100,000 people over a period of seven days, a number big enough to make YouGov’s multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) technology possible in the first place. The main polling result is that the Tories are leading Labour by some 11 points, very much in line with the poll trackers. YouGov says that, if the gap falls to below 7 percentage points, a hung parliament becomes more likely.

So that should be that.

But it doesn’t feel that way. And evidence to the contrary keeps popping up.

Here’s one disagreeable data point, courtesy of (again) Eurointelligence:

A last-minute spike in voter registration shows a 38% increase over 2017. Of those new registrations, two thirds are from the under-35. As young people are more likely to vote Labour, this would help the Labour Party. The UK newspapers attribute the spike ahead of last night’s deadline to a message from the Stormzy, a popular British rapper.

Here’s another: After the first nationally televised debate, The Times of London reported:

A snap YouGov poll after the ITV debate handed victory to Mr Johnson by the narrowest of margins, with 51 per cent saying that he was the better performer against 49 per cent for Mr Corbyn. YouGov also found that 54 per cent thought Mr Johnson came across as more prime ministerial, compared with 29 per cent for Mr Corbyn. Fifty-nine per cent said, however, that the Labour leader was more in touch with ordinary voters, compared with 25 per cent for Mr Johnson.

51-49? Huh? Post-debate polls are useful because they provide fresh insight into voter preference. Debates, in this age of polarization, are all-but-entirely perceived through the lens of partisanship. If you’re for Johnson, he has to go far, far astray to make you say he “lost” the debate. The same holds true for Corbyn. He could call for the reformation of the Soviet Union and he wouldn’t suffer any immediate, consequential voter attrition. He might (he almost certainly would) suffer the next day and the day after that, after the press had waterboarded him on the front pages and television newscasts. But even then, his candidacy would not collapse.

51%-49% got everyone’s attention. A statistical tie! And then there was this disquieting business about being “more in touch with ordinary voters.” Fifty-nine percent said Corbyn was “more in touch.” Twenty-five percent said Johnson was. Few things in politics are more disquieting than a 34-point deficit on an important metric of electoral success.

Johnson’s strategist, Dominic Cummings, secured his reputation for political mastery by guiding the Brexit referendum “Leave” campaign to victory. He did so by executing the most effective digital campaign in the history of modern British politics and by keeping the electorate focused on a simple message: “Take Back Control.” Indeed, he built the entire campaign around that idea and never once deviated from it. It was his version of James Carville’s relentless and effective four word mantra for the 1992 U.S. presidential election: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Throughout the “Leave” campaign, Cummings viewed politicians like Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson as distractions and did everything he could to marginalize their importance to the electorate. He wanted voters entirely focused on (from his point of view) their empowerment. He wanted nothing to do with the self-aggrandizement of men like Farage and Johnson, whom he viewed with barely concealed disdain.

He was mostly successful. It worked. Leave won.

Now that Cummings is running the Johnson campaign, he has chosen a strikingly similar message: “Get Brexit Done.” Not: Elect Tories. Not: Keep Johnson. Not: Stay The Course. Get Brexit Done. He chose that message because research shows it is the surest path to victory.

And yet, even with that simple, straightforward, popular-enough proposition, Johnson’s Tories have not been able to put the election away. An upset remains possible and not improbable.

The UK’s heavily-populated anti-Corbyn press corps, sensing disaster, has taken to constantly “assessing” Johnson’s (important) strengths and (unimportant) weaknesses while portraying Corbyn as a cross between Joseph Stalin’s rightful heir and Jack the Ripper. The devil you know is a devil, they say. The devil you don’t is a monster.

Even with the onslaught of all this negative Corbyn press, however, Johnson keeps muddying the message and getting in the way; a disastrous visit to flood victims in the north, a dreadful interview with the BBC, the annoying and unhappy girlfriend, the list goes on (and on). Johnson has run a terrible campaign. It’s not lost on anyone that he can’t escape the grasp of an opponent who sports a (roughly) 60% unfavorable rating.

Toward the end of last week and over the weekend, the Johnson campaign and its allies talked to a number of key U.S. power brokers beseeching them to keep President Trump from “meddling” in the UK election campaign. Trump’s unfavorable rating in the UK is every bit as robust as Corbyn’s, if not more so. An endorsement from the U.S. president polls badly, across the board. As a result, every effort was made to convince Trump to keep his distance and forgo any tweets on the subject.

So far, Trump has “behaved” and “stayed focused,” in the condescending words of his self-important aides. How long he will be able to do so is an open question. But his mere presence has given salience to Corbyn’s unstated message, which is, basically, “Send Them a Message,” the slogan of the insurgent 1968 and 1972 presidential campaigns of late four-term Alabama Gov. George Wallace, a fellow master of grievance politics.

That’s a powerful message for a wide swath of the electorate. If you think Johnson is a charlatan and a cad, a posh populist, an Eton elitist through and through, then voting Labour (and thus supporting Corbyn) would seem meaningful in the same way that voting to “take back control” seemed satisfying and significant in 2016.

Corbyn isn’t anyone’s idea of posh. He’s the antithesis of the focus-grouped candidate. Which is part of what makes him formidable. He’s made more formidable by an illogical but enabling sequence: Since he’s going to lose anyway, like Trump in 2016, there’s no harm in voting Labour. Your voice will be heard, loud and clear. And let’s face it; nothing says “drain the swamp” quite like voting for Jeremy Corbyn.

That’s the mindset Labour is counting on. If enough people think that way, the odds of a hung Parliament increase accordingly. And that’s why we are where we are now — somewhere between an uneasy Tory win and a hung Parliament.

In the privacy of his office, Dominic Cummings must pine for the days when he managed the Leave campaign: unencumbered, under-estimated, under the radar. He’s none of those things now. He strives to keep it simple. Johnson seems almost compelled to make it sloppy. There’s no way to marginalize his importance to the electorate.

To quote Wallace one more time, in these kinds of political campaigns, at the end, when everyone is riveted to the news and partisans are hungry for more, “you gotta get it down there where the dogs can eat it.” Corbyn knows a thing or two about dog food. Don’t count him out. Don’t be surprised if a hung Parliament is the election’s result.

John Ellis is the Editor of News Items and a former columnist for The Boston Globe. You can reach him at jellis41@protonmail.com. You can sign up for the News Items newsletter here.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-04  Authors: john ellis, editor of online publication news items
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, cent, election, jeremy, corbyn, message, yougov, johnson, general, count, labour, dont, campaign, uks, way


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If there’s no trade deal this year, ‘I don’t know if I want to be around equities,’ Jeremy Siegel says

If a U.S.-China trade deal is off the table, stay away from the stock market, says Jeremy Siegel, Wharton School professor of finance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 250 points after President Donald Trump indicated he might wait until 2020 to strike a trade deal with China. If Trump doesn’t reach a trade deal with China and “the tariffs get put on on Dec. 15 … I don’t know if I want to be around equities then,” Siegel said on CNBC’s Closing Bell on Tuesday. Without a trade re


If a U.S.-China trade deal is off the table, stay away from the stock market, says Jeremy Siegel, Wharton School professor of finance.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 250 points after President Donald Trump indicated he might wait until 2020 to strike a trade deal with China.
If Trump doesn’t reach a trade deal with China and “the tariffs get put on on Dec. 15 …
I don’t know if I want to be around equities then,” Siegel said on CNBC’s Closing Bell on Tuesday.
Without a trade re
If there’s no trade deal this year, ‘I don’t know if I want to be around equities,’ Jeremy Siegel says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-03  Authors: yun li
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, yield, theres, trade, jeremy, tariffs, equities, dont, know, think, stay, siegel, deal, stocks, really, trump


If there's no trade deal this year, 'I don't know if I want to be around equities,' Jeremy Siegel says

If a U.S.-China trade deal is off the table, stay away from the stock market, says Jeremy Siegel, Wharton School professor of finance.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 250 points after President Donald Trump indicated he might wait until 2020 to strike a trade deal with China. The White House reportedly still plans on moving ahead with scheduled Dec. 15 tariffs on Chinese goods despite the recent efforts between the two countries to work up phase one of a trade agreement.

If Trump doesn’t reach a trade deal with China and “the tariffs get put on on Dec. 15 … I don’t know if I want to be around equities then,” Siegel said on CNBC’s Closing Bell on Tuesday.

Trump’s comments sparked a flight to safe assets, pushing the yield on benchmark Treasury note to the lowest level since August. Without a trade resolution between the world’s two largest economies, rates are bound to remain low and investors will gravitate towards dividend-paying stocks, Siegel predicted.

“Yields are going to stay really low with Treasuries being a hedge asset like this … Utilities and defensive stocks, anything that gets you yield I think is going to do pretty well in 2020,” Siegel said.

However, Siegel cautioned Trump’s downplaying the urgency to make a deal could be a negotiating tactic.

“Honestly, in my personal opinion, this is just a negotiating tactic — be really tough right before you make a deal. I still think he will make a deal this year,” he said.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-03  Authors: yun li
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, yield, theres, trade, jeremy, tariffs, equities, dont, know, think, stay, siegel, deal, stocks, really, trump


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Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn big issues in UK election, former trade minister says


Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn big issues in UK election, former trade minister says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02
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Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn big issues in UK election, former trade minister says


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Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 will see at least a ‘10% pop’ on US-China trade settlement

The S&P 500 will get a double-digit percent lift from a “settlement” in the U.S.-China trade war, Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC on Tuesday. At the moment, Siegel said, the most important factor for the stock market is the trade war, not any potential action from the Federal Reserve. Siegel said in September another 25 basis-point interest rate cut was necessary to stave off a recession. “The traders are looking for a trade deal,” Siegel said. On the other hand, Siegel said, “I


The S&P 500 will get a double-digit percent lift from a “settlement” in the U.S.-China trade war, Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC on Tuesday.
At the moment, Siegel said, the most important factor for the stock market is the trade war, not any potential action from the Federal Reserve.
Siegel said in September another 25 basis-point interest rate cut was necessary to stave off a recession.
“The traders are looking for a trade deal,” Siegel said.
On the other hand, Siegel said, “I
Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 will see at least a ‘10% pop’ on US-China trade settlement Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-12  Authors: kevin stankiewicz
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stock, settlement, market, rate, siegel, deal, 500, uschina, interest, record, trade, think, jeremy, pop


Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 will see at least a '10% pop' on US-China trade settlement

The S&P 500 will get a double-digit percent lift from a “settlement” in the U.S.-China trade war, Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC on Tuesday.

“If we get some sort of settlement, I think we get a 10% pop, at least, in the S&P,” the longtime stock bull said on “Closing Bell.” “Otherwise, we’re just going to be muddling along, because valuations are pretty full at this particular juncture, until we get some push on earnings.”

The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to 3,091.84 on Tuesday, touching a new intraday record. The Nasdaq Composite inched to a record high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at precisely the same level it opened, 27,691.49.

The stock market’s record run recently has been fueled, in part, by an improving outlook toward a resolution in the long-running trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies. The S&P, for example, is up 4.09% over the last month.

In October, President Donald Trump announced a “phase one” deal with China, which has yet to be officially signed.

At the moment, Siegel said, the most important factor for the stock market is the trade war, not any potential action from the Federal Reserve. The central bank has thrice cut interest rates this year, most recently on Oct. 30.

“I think the Fed has been taken out of the equation,” Siegel said, noting recession fears also have started to subside.

Siegel said in September another 25 basis-point interest rate cut was necessary to stave off a recession. That cut was made in October.

Despite Trump’s pleas Tuesday for further rate cuts at the Economic Club of New York, Siegel said interest rates have “gotten to where they’re going to be.”

“The traders are looking for a trade deal,” Siegel said.

The absence of a significant resolution to the trade dispute — which has weighed on global growth — would be a “disappointment,” Siegel said.

And at present valuations, with stocks selling at about 19 times this year’s S&P operating earnings, the market has little wiggle room for a major let-down, the professor argued.

“It isn’t cheap. Now, it’s not expensive for the interest rate level that we’re at. But it doesn’t give a lot of room for some big disappointment,” he said. “An escalation of any trade tensions would really bring a sell-off.”

On the other hand, Siegel said, “If Trump can deliver on a trade deal, I think you’ll have a global bull market.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-12  Authors: kevin stankiewicz
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stock, settlement, market, rate, siegel, deal, 500, uschina, interest, record, trade, think, jeremy, pop


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Trump criticism will probably please Jeremy Corbyn, Tony Blair says

Trump criticism will probably please Jeremy Corbyn, Tony Blair saysFormer U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair discusses Britain’s Brexit impasse, the country’s upcoming general election, and U.S.-U.K. relations.


Trump criticism will probably please Jeremy Corbyn, Tony Blair saysFormer U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair discusses Britain’s Brexit impasse, the country’s upcoming general election, and U.S.-U.K. relations.
Trump criticism will probably please Jeremy Corbyn, Tony Blair says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-05
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trump, tony, prime, probably, upcoming, blair, relations, usuk, corbyn, criticism, saysformer, jeremy


Trump criticism will probably please Jeremy Corbyn, Tony Blair says

Trump criticism will probably please Jeremy Corbyn, Tony Blair says

Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair discusses Britain’s Brexit impasse, the country’s upcoming general election, and U.S.-U.K. relations.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-05
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Jeremy Corbyn not a suitable candidate to lead a caretaker government: Dominic Grieve

Jeremy Corbyn not a suitable candidate to lead a caretaker government: Dominic Grieve4 Hours AgoBritish lawmaker Dominic Grieve discusses the potential for a caretaker government if Prime Minister Boris Johnson is forced out or resigns.


Jeremy Corbyn not a suitable candidate to lead a caretaker government: Dominic Grieve4 Hours AgoBritish lawmaker Dominic Grieve discusses the potential for a caretaker government if Prime Minister Boris Johnson is forced out or resigns.
Jeremy Corbyn not a suitable candidate to lead a caretaker government: Dominic Grieve Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-09-30
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, suitable, caretaker, potential, jeremy, lawmaker, grieve, dominic, johnson, minister, lead, resigns, candidate, corbyn, prime


Jeremy Corbyn not a suitable candidate to lead a caretaker government: Dominic Grieve

Jeremy Corbyn not a suitable candidate to lead a caretaker government: Dominic Grieve

4 Hours Ago

British lawmaker Dominic Grieve discusses the potential for a caretaker government if Prime Minister Boris Johnson is forced out or resigns.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-09-30
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BP CEO warns a Corbyn-led UK government would be ‘quite alarming’

BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley is concerned about the prospect of U.K. opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. “A Jeremy Corbyn government, of a kind that does what it says it might do, I think is quite alarming for everybody,” BP CEO Bob Dudley told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday. “I think when you talk about nationalizing assets in companies, and particularly think about the bond holders who are global, I mean everyone is sitting up and saying: ‘Really?'” The Labour part


BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley is concerned about the prospect of U.K. opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. “A Jeremy Corbyn government, of a kind that does what it says it might do, I think is quite alarming for everybody,” BP CEO Bob Dudley told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday. “I think when you talk about nationalizing assets in companies, and particularly think about the bond holders who are global, I mean everyone is sitting up and saying: ‘Really?'” The Labour part
BP CEO warns a Corbyn-led UK government would be ‘quite alarming’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-30  Authors: sam meredith
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, labour, jeremy, dudley, election, corbyn, think, quite, bp, alarming, ceo, party, prime, corbynled, leader, johnson, warns, uk


BP CEO warns a Corbyn-led UK government would be 'quite alarming'

BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley is concerned about the prospect of U.K. opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.

“A Jeremy Corbyn government, of a kind that does what it says it might do, I think is quite alarming for everybody,” BP CEO Bob Dudley told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday.

“I think when you talk about nationalizing assets in companies, and particularly think about the bond holders who are global, I mean everyone is sitting up and saying: ‘Really?'” Dudley said.

The Labour party did not respond to a request for comment when contacted by CNBC Tuesday morning.

Corbyn, the leftist leader of the Labour Party since 2015, reportedly said Sunday that he is “absolutely” willing to go up against newly-elected Prime Minister Boris Johnson if a general election is called over the coming months.

Britain is not due to hold a nationwide vote until 2022.

But, a wafer-thin parliamentary majority for the ruling Conservative Party — with less than 100 days until the world’s fifth-largest economy is due to leave the European Union — has led some external observers to believe an election could be called before the October 31 Brexit deadline.

Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson, who officially entered Downing Street last week, has vowed to deliver Brexit by that date “come what may ” — even if that means leaving without a deal in place.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-30  Authors: sam meredith
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UK set for a new prime minister as Brexit chaos rolls on

Boris Johnson (L) and Jeremy Hunt take part in the Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson debate Head To Head on ITV on July 9, 2019 in Salford, England. The U.K. will find out who its next prime minister will be this week as voting within the U.K.’s ruling Conservative Party comes to a close. The vote comes after Prime Minister Theresa May announced she would resign following repeated parliamentary rejections of the Brexit deal she struck with the EU. A “no-deal” Brexit is seen by many inside and outsid


Boris Johnson (L) and Jeremy Hunt take part in the Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson debate Head To Head on ITV on July 9, 2019 in Salford, England. The U.K. will find out who its next prime minister will be this week as voting within the U.K.’s ruling Conservative Party comes to a close. The vote comes after Prime Minister Theresa May announced she would resign following repeated parliamentary rejections of the Brexit deal she struck with the EU. A “no-deal” Brexit is seen by many inside and outsid
UK set for a new prime minister as Brexit chaos rolls on Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-22  Authors: holly ellyatt
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, deal, minister, prime, jeremy, johnson, nodeal, leave, rolls, uk, hunt, party, brexit, chaos, set


UK set for a new prime minister as Brexit chaos rolls on

Boris Johnson (L) and Jeremy Hunt take part in the Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson debate Head To Head on ITV on July 9, 2019 in Salford, England.

The U.K. will find out who its next prime minister will be this week as voting within the U.K.’s ruling Conservative Party comes to a close.

Monday is the last day that members of the party can submit their preferred candidate to lead the party, and the country, with former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson facing the current holder of that post Jeremy Hunt.

Johnson, who is known for his outspoken and often controversial views, is seen as the frontrunner with the result expected Tuesday. The vote comes after Prime Minister Theresa May announced she would resign following repeated parliamentary rejections of the Brexit deal she struck with the EU.

As such, the party leadership race has focused on how each contender would deal with Brexit ahead of a new departure deadline of October 31.

Pro-Brexit candidate Johnson has already caused a stir by saying that the U.K. must leave the EU by the deadline “do or die, come what may” even if that meant leaving without a deal in place. His opponent Hunt, a “Remainer” in the initial 2016 referendum who has since said he would now vote to leave, has also been vociferous about fulfilling Brexit but said no deal was a last resort.

A “no-deal” Brexit is seen by many inside and outside of parliament as a “cliff-edge” scenario to be avoided at all costs.

Leaving without a deal in place would mean an abrupt departure from the EU with no transition period which would have allowed businesses to adjust to life outside the trading bloc. It would also mean that the U.K. has to revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and automatic import tariffs that could damage trade and consumption.

Many ardent Brexiteers are fed up with the delay, however, and believe that the U.K. should adhere to an already-extended deadline to leave the bloc. The EU has insisted many times that it is not open to renegotiating the deal it struck with May last year, raising the prospect of a no-deal exit.

Finance Minister Philip Hammond has already said he will resign on Wednesday and has strongly opposed a no-deal Brexit, telling CNBC last week that “if the new government tries to drive the U.K. over a cliff-edge called no-deal Brexit I will do all I can to stop that.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-22  Authors: holly ellyatt
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, deal, minister, prime, jeremy, johnson, nodeal, leave, rolls, uk, hunt, party, brexit, chaos, set


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Jeremy Siegel: Stocks could add another 5% onto record rally by year-end thanks to the Fed

After four 0.25% hikes last year, the target range for the fed funds overnight bank lending rate stands at 2.25% to 2.5%. The final Fed increase in borrowing costs in 2018 came in December when the stock market was melting down. At the shorter end of the bond yield curve, the 3-month Treasury rate has actually been higher than the 10-year. That so-called inverted yield curve, when shorter-term bonds deliver higher rates than longer-term ones, historically has signaled a recession on the horizon.


After four 0.25% hikes last year, the target range for the fed funds overnight bank lending rate stands at 2.25% to 2.5%. The final Fed increase in borrowing costs in 2018 came in December when the stock market was melting down. At the shorter end of the bond yield curve, the 3-month Treasury rate has actually been higher than the 10-year. That so-called inverted yield curve, when shorter-term bonds deliver higher rates than longer-term ones, historically has signaled a recession on the horizon.
Jeremy Siegel: Stocks could add another 5% onto record rally by year-end thanks to the Fed Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-12  Authors: jessica bursztynsky
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, add, higher, stocks, jeremy, stock, yield, rally, funds, yearend, week, rate, record, siegel, fed, thanks, market, curve


Jeremy Siegel: Stocks could add another 5% onto record rally by year-end thanks to the Fed

The stock market has been hitting all kinds of records this week, and Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC on Friday that he does not see that stopping anytime soon.

“I think fair market value does give us another 5% or 6% this year” on the S&P 500 with the Federal Reserve signalling interest rate cuts ahead, the longtime stock bull said on “Fast Money Halftime Report.”

“But we may go up 10% or 12% before we sell off,” Siegel added, noting the Fed tends to overshoot on both the downside and the upside when adjusting rates.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell — who dropped rate-cut hints over two days of congressional economic testimony this week — has been widely criticized by Wall Street and President Donald Trump for hiking too aggressively.

After four 0.25% hikes last year, the target range for the fed funds overnight bank lending rate stands at 2.25% to 2.5%. The final Fed increase in borrowing costs in 2018 came in December when the stock market was melting down.

Siegel said he hopes the Fed cuts rates by a half percentage point at its upcoming July 30-31 meeting, though he acknowledges that such a bold move would be unlikely.

Around midday Friday, the CME FedWatch tracker was putting only about a 25% probability on a 0.5% reduction in the fed funds and much larger 75% odds on a 0.25% cut.

The reason Siegel would like to see a deeper cut is because he’s concerned about the fed funds rate being higher than the 10-year Treasury yield, which was around 2.1% on Friday.

At the shorter end of the bond yield curve, the 3-month Treasury rate has actually been higher than the 10-year.

That so-called inverted yield curve, when shorter-term bonds deliver higher rates than longer-term ones, historically has signaled a recession on the horizon.

“The biggest factor here is we really did see an inversion in that yield curve,” Siegel said. “I’ve gone through history, it is one of the most single reliable indicators of a recession. And I worry about that.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-12  Authors: jessica bursztynsky
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The Fed should cut rates next week, but it won’t, Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel warns. Here’s why.

Stocks have rallied within range of records on high hopes for a rate cut, possibly as soon as next week. “They should cut rates, but they won’t — not quite yet,” Siegel told CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Wednesday. Siegel says the Fed will first want to lay the groundwork for a rate cut before it takes action, a process requiring a longer time frame beyond next week’s meeting. Even when the Fed cuts rates next, Spiegel says it might be too little to spur the kind of economic growth anticipated. So


Stocks have rallied within range of records on high hopes for a rate cut, possibly as soon as next week. “They should cut rates, but they won’t — not quite yet,” Siegel told CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Wednesday. Siegel says the Fed will first want to lay the groundwork for a rate cut before it takes action, a process requiring a longer time frame beyond next week’s meeting. Even when the Fed cuts rates next, Spiegel says it might be too little to spur the kind of economic growth anticipated. So
The Fed should cut rates next week, but it won’t, Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel warns. Here’s why. Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-06-13  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, rate, wont, cut, week, little, growth, fed, really, whartons, jeremy, meeting, heres, market, siegel, think, warns, rates


The Fed should cut rates next week, but it won't, Wharton's Jeremy Siegel warns. Here's why.

Stocks have rallied within range of records on high hopes for a rate cut, possibly as soon as next week.

Investors could be waiting a little longer, warns Wharton professor of finance Jeremy Siegel.

“They should cut rates, but they won’t — not quite yet,” Siegel told CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Wednesday. “I think they’re going to put out a directive that says in their next meeting which will be July 31st after the June meeting that they’re very likely to cut rates and I think the market will be satisfied with that. ”

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to meet Tuesday, culminating with a decision on Wednesday afternoon. Markets are pricing in a 20% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the June meeting, according to CME fed funds futures, with those odds jumping to 66% at the July meeting.

Siegel says the Fed will first want to lay the groundwork for a rate cut before it takes action, a process requiring a longer time frame beyond next week’s meeting.

“The Fed is very deliberate. Before they move, they like to make announcements and speeches. They haven’t really had a chance to really prepare those. We still could get a cut. There may be some dissents among the Fed officials saying I want to cut now, but I say the odds are a setup for a cut that will come at the end of July,” he said.

Even when the Fed cuts rates next, Spiegel says it might be too little to spur the kind of economic growth anticipated.

“The Fed is a little bit too slow,” he said. “There should be a 50-basis-point cut. Given where the 10-year [Treasury note] is right now, we should be below on the funds rate than the 10-year, and even 25 basis points won’t really put us below. So I really think there should be more.”

The 10-year has come back from the year’s lows last week, though still trades at its lowest level in nearly two years. Yields fall when bond prices rise, an indication that investors are flocking to safe-haven assets such as Treasurys. The effective fed funds rate guides banks on the interest rate at which they lend excess reserves. A lower rate encourages more lending and borrowing.

Beyond the Fed, investors also need a resolution on the trade war before the stock market can make larger strides higher, says Siegel.

“Right now projections are Q2 growth is 1.5%. That would be the slowest during the Trump presidency. … If the tariff clouds continue to gather in second half of the year, we may barely reach 2%,” he said. “Short term, it’s going to be hard to make big gains with the trade clouds and the interest rate clouds hanging over the market.”

The U.S. economy ended 2018 with economic growth at 2.9%. A slowdown to sub-2% would mark its lowest level since 2016.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-06-13  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, rate, wont, cut, week, little, growth, fed, really, whartons, jeremy, meeting, heres, market, siegel, think, warns, rates


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