A leading indicator could be waving a yellow flag to the markets

Just as the stock market sell-off has taken a pause, one technician sees trouble brewing on one corner of Wall Street. Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, says small caps are underperforming, and they have a solid track record of foreshadowing the market’s next move. The Russell 2000 closed Thursday’s session at 1,461.65, right on the cusp of its June low. Mark Tepper, president of Strategic Wealth Partners, says now is not the right time to invest in the Russell 2000. Small-cap finan


Just as the stock market sell-off has taken a pause, one technician sees trouble brewing on one corner of Wall Street. Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, says small caps are underperforming, and they have a solid track record of foreshadowing the market’s next move. The Russell 2000 closed Thursday’s session at 1,461.65, right on the cusp of its June low. Mark Tepper, president of Strategic Wealth Partners, says now is not the right time to invest in the Russell 2000. Small-cap finan
A leading indicator could be waving a yellow flag to the markets Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-16  Authors: keris lahiff, michael affigne
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, waving, sp, small, markets, 2000, stock, caps, indicator, market, tepper, flag, low, maley, russell, yellow, leading


A leading indicator could be waving a yellow flag to the markets

Just as the stock market sell-off has taken a pause, one technician sees trouble brewing on one corner of Wall Street.

Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, says small caps are underperforming, and they have a solid track record of foreshadowing the market’s next move.

“The Russell 2000 small-cap index has been a great leading indicator for the stock market in both directions, and we saw it last year before the big decline in the stock market in the fourth quarter, ” Maley said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation. ”

In September, the Russell 2000 topped out and rolled over, Maley noted. The S&P 500 followed suit in October.

“When the Russell 2000 rolled over and broke to a new lower low, that’s when the whole market started to really fall out of bed, and we’re seeing a similar situation right now,” said Maley. “When the S&P went to make a new high [in July], the Russell failed to do so, and now it’s rolling back over and it’s testing its June lows.”

Small caps’ next move holds the key to whether the S&P 500 can rebound or continue to sell off, Maley said.

“If it breaks below those June lows that will give it another key lower low,” he added. “A key lower low on the Russell 2000 would not bode well for either the small caps overall or for the rest of the market over the intermediate term.”

The Russell 2000 closed Thursday’s session at 1,461.65, right on the cusp of its June low.

Mark Tepper, president of Strategic Wealth Partners, says now is not the right time to invest in the Russell 2000.

“We’d much rather be in large-cap stocks — companies with good strong balance sheets, strong free cash flow, and low debt levels — and small caps don’t typically check any of those boxes,” Tepper said Thursday. “Roughly about a third of these small-cap companies, they don’t make any money, and that’s obviously not a good thing. The index as a whole is just up to their eyeballs in debt. They’ve got roughly three times the leverage of large caps and those are the high-debt companies that don’t survive when the economy takes a turn for the worse.”

Small-cap financials stocks also make up a large portion of the Russell 2000, another deterrent to Tepper. He says to steer clear of these names as the flat-to-inverted yield curve puts pressure on banking profitability. Financials make up 25% of the IWM Russell ETF.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-16  Authors: keris lahiff, michael affigne
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, waving, sp, small, markets, 2000, stock, caps, indicator, market, tepper, flag, low, maley, russell, yellow, leading


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The yield curve just inverted – Jim Cramer and three other experts weigh in

The spread between the U.S. 10-year note and 2-year note inverted, a signal investors take as a recession indicator. Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s “Mad Money,” says the U.S. economy is in a good spot to withstand some of the headwinds facing the global economy. “Our economy is uniquely not as sensitive because these are not exporters that need to have a dollar weaker. “If you look at the data even prior to 1980, typically you see the equity market go up about 4% in the 12 months post the yield curv


The spread between the U.S. 10-year note and 2-year note inverted, a signal investors take as a recession indicator. Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s “Mad Money,” says the U.S. economy is in a good spot to withstand some of the headwinds facing the global economy. “Our economy is uniquely not as sensitive because these are not exporters that need to have a dollar weaker. “If you look at the data even prior to 1980, typically you see the equity market go up about 4% in the 12 months post the yield curv
The yield curve just inverted – Jim Cramer and three other experts weigh in Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-14  Authors: keris lahiff, michael affigne
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, jim, curve, weigh, inversion, inverted, global, yield, typically, cramer, market, experts, economy, recession, dollar, rates, dont


The yield curve just inverted – Jim Cramer and three other experts weigh in

The bond market just did something it hasn’t done since 2007.

The spread between the U.S. 10-year note and 2-year note inverted, a signal investors take as a recession indicator.

Four experts break down what comes next.

Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s “Mad Money,” says the U.S. economy is in a good spot to withstand some of the headwinds facing the global economy.

“Our economy is uniquely not as sensitive because these are not exporters that need to have a dollar weaker. Remember our dollar is just getting stronger – an extraordinary rally in the dollar. I don’t want to see it but I struggle to reach a conclusion that this is all bad given the fact that Germany has had these rates for some time and their market is not doing that badly even though they have an export economy. Their DAX in real terms is up even though they’re exporting the Mercedez-Benz, the Volkswagen and BMW right to China. And those sales are very weak as we see the numbers from China so it’s not the end of the world.”

Erin Browne, managing director at Pimco, sees greater chances of a rotation coming to markets in the short term rather than a more severe downturn.

“If you look at the data even prior to 1980, typically you see the equity market go up about 4% in the 12 months post the yield curve inversion. That said, what you do see under the surface is a rotation out of the cyclicals and into the more defensive stocks and remember yield curve inversion – first for it to be a sizeable signal, it needs to be inverted for about three months. After that three-month inversion, you typically see within one to two years on average the economy turn and go into a recession but it doesn’t necessarily mean that a recession is imminent.”

Andy Brenner, director at National Alliance Securities, says weakening global economies signaled the inversion.

“What we saw overnight is the German economy came out with a negative GDP print, the global economies continue to be in turmoil and continue to be weakening and it wasn’t a surprise to me the 2s/10s got inverted by 2 basis points overnight and got to about 2 basis points now. I don’t see a recession on the rise in the U.S. but nonetheless that’s where we’re going and we think rates are going to go lower from here.”

Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital, says this time looks different than the last.

“I’m certainly worried about a recession, I’m worried about a recession in 2020. I think what makes this particular event different than inversions we’ve seen in the past is [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell has already cut once. Typically, we don’t see an inversion until after the point at which the market says the Fed needs to cut but they haven’t yet.”

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-14  Authors: keris lahiff, michael affigne
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, jim, curve, weigh, inversion, inverted, global, yield, typically, cramer, market, experts, economy, recession, dollar, rates, dont


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Don’t buy gold until it reaches this level, Piper Jaffray technician says

Don’t buy into this rally yet, said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray. The GLD gold ETF peaked at $142.47 earlier this week. Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Tengler Wealth Management, said in mid-July that the gold trade would work as a near-term play. “If I believe that slowing global growth is going to infect the U.S., that interest rates are going negative, then I buy gold,” Tengler said Thursday on “Trading Nation.” The GLD ETF remains 24% below its all-ti


Don’t buy into this rally yet, said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray. The GLD gold ETF peaked at $142.47 earlier this week. Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Tengler Wealth Management, said in mid-July that the gold trade would work as a near-term play. “If I believe that slowing global growth is going to infect the U.S., that interest rates are going negative, then I buy gold,” Tengler said Thursday on “Trading Nation.” The GLD ETF remains 24% below its all-ti
Don’t buy gold until it reaches this level, Piper Jaffray technician says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-09  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wait, piper, gold, dont, reaches, technician, buy, gld, trade, rally, johnson, etf, level, jaffray, trading, tengler


Don't buy gold until it reaches this level, Piper Jaffray technician says

All that glitters is gold this month.

Gold prices have surged 5% in August as the S&P 500 has tumbled 2%. Its rally has pushed the yellow metal above $1,500 to reach the highest level in more than six years.

Don’t buy into this rally yet, said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray.

“It’s starting to get a little bit ahead of itself,” Johnson said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation. ” “I would trade it this way – I’d wait for this stock, take profits here and now, wait for it to pull back to about $130 on the GLD, then I’d be a buyer on that pullback and confirmation of support.”

The GLD gold ETF peaked at $142.47 earlier this week. It would need to fall 8% from current levels to reach Johnson’s $130 target.

“On the longer-term setup, you can see that there could be measured objective towards about $160 here. Because this is a very meaningful topside break out of a nice consolidation range,” Johnson added.

A move to $160 on the GLD ETF implies 13% upside. It last traded above that level in 2013.

Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Tengler Wealth Management, said in mid-July that the gold trade would work as a near-term play. Since that call, the GLD ETF has rallied 5%.

However, she’s not ready to buy the long-term bull case.

“If I believe that slowing global growth is going to infect the U.S., that interest rates are going negative, then I buy gold,” Tengler said Thursday on “Trading Nation.” “If I think, as I do, that things will consolidate — we’ll ultimately get a China deal, not great, and equities will begin to rally and outperform — then you sell here, and invest in dividend-paying stocks.”

The GLD ETF remains 24% below its all-time peak in September 2011.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-09  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wait, piper, gold, dont, reaches, technician, buy, gld, trade, rally, johnson, etf, level, jaffray, trading, tengler


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One simple chart points to a stock market rebound

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, up more than 200 points at session highs, edged back by the middle of the session, while the S&P 500 retreated from its own highs. “Look at the S&P 500, just at its 200-day moving average, take away the daily day-to-day movements. Since the beginning of 2018, the S&P 500 moved as high as a record 3,025 last month and as low as 2,346 during its December slump. Hickey says this is the third consolidation phase the S&P 500 has been in since the lows of the financia


The Dow Jones Industrial Average, up more than 200 points at session highs, edged back by the middle of the session, while the S&P 500 retreated from its own highs. “Look at the S&P 500, just at its 200-day moving average, take away the daily day-to-day movements. Since the beginning of 2018, the S&P 500 moved as high as a record 3,025 last month and as low as 2,346 during its December slump. Hickey says this is the third consolidation phase the S&P 500 has been in since the lows of the financia
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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-06  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, hickey, simple, sp, market, upward, trading, points, rebound, highs, 200day, spy, stock, chart, 500, trend, average


One simple chart points to a stock market rebound

Wall Street’s big rebound from a days-long sell-off lost a little steam Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, up more than 200 points at session highs, edged back by the middle of the session, while the S&P 500 retreated from its own highs. A day earlier, both indexes suffered their worst day of the year as trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalated.

Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, says the stock market’s upward march will resume.

“Step away from the noise,” Hickey said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Monday. “Look at the S&P 500, just at its 200-day moving average, take away the daily day-to-day movements. When you look at a chart like that, what you see is that the S&P 500 is essentially, with all the flopping up and down is done, is essentially right where it was 18 months ago.”

Since the beginning of 2018, the S&P 500 moved as high as a record 3,025 last month and as low as 2,346 during its December slump. The 200-day moving average, which smooths out intraday and day-to-day volatility, shows the S&P 500 in a period of consolidation over this stretch.

Hickey says this is the third consolidation phase the S&P 500 has been in since the lows of the financial crisis. Aside from those stretches of stasis, the markets have been on an upward trajectory, a trend Hickey expects to resume.

“We’ve just recently seen the 200-day move to new highs out of this sideways range. So, that tells you that the trend still is intact,” said Hickey. “This is more likely to just be some more of this noise that we’ve seen repeatedly over the last several months.”

This particular sell-off also has a historical precedent, says Hickey. Since the SPY S&P 500 ETF started trading, there have been 18 times that it has fallen by more than 1% on a Monday following a week in which it lost 2% or more. From that Monday close to the following Monday’s close, the SPY ETF added an average 2%.

“You tended to see a rebound in equities. So, that would go along with … our whole idea that the last three days has been a shock to the market, but it’s not necessarily a major long-term shock to the market,” said Hickey.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-06  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, hickey, simple, sp, market, upward, trading, points, rebound, highs, 200day, spy, stock, chart, 500, trend, average


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Stock up 230% this year could see a massive move next week

One streaming company stock is roaring higher this year. Roku shares have surged 230% in 2019, 11 times Netflix’s gains, to hit record highs in the past month. Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com, is betting the stock will make a massive move as it reports earnings next week. … We wouldn’t expect to see technical resistance until we’re right around the $125 mark in terms of that upper channel.” That trend channel stretches on the upper channel from a series of higher highs beginning in e


One streaming company stock is roaring higher this year. Roku shares have surged 230% in 2019, 11 times Netflix’s gains, to hit record highs in the past month. Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com, is betting the stock will make a massive move as it reports earnings next week. … We wouldn’t expect to see technical resistance until we’re right around the $125 mark in terms of that upper channel.” That trend channel stretches on the upper channel from a series of higher highs beginning in e
Stock up 230% this year could see a massive move next week Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-02  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, gordon, mark, channel, 230, week, earnings, higher, volatility, upper, record, massive, stock, 120


Stock up 230% this year could see a massive move next week

One streaming company stock is roaring higher this year.

Roku shares have surged 230% in 2019, 11 times Netflix’s gains, to hit record highs in the past month.

Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com, is betting the stock will make a massive move as it reports earnings next week.

“Very, very explosive stock here. You can see going back to the beginning of 2019 just an amazing, amazing uptrend here in Roku,” Gordon told CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Thursday. “I’d like to play a continuation higher on this chart. … We wouldn’t expect to see technical resistance until we’re right around the $125 mark in terms of that upper channel.”

That trend channel stretches on the upper channel from a series of higher highs beginning in early February to its record high in mid-July. Gordon also sees a bull flag forming in the past two weeks, a descending channel of consolidation that could mark a breather before a stock continues to rise.

“Heading into earnings, it’s quite interesting, we have very high implied volatility here in Roku,” said Gordon. “If you look at the expected move on the top side, it’s looking for a move all the way up to $120 if the stock where to surprise on the upside. Conversely, if we disappoint, you could be looking at something down to $89.58.”

A move to $120 following earnings would represent a 19% surge following its earnings report next Wednesday. It would mark a new record. A drop to $89.58 implies 11% downside.

Gordon is putting on a butterfly call spread to hedge any volatility risk tied to Roku’s post-earnings move. To do this, he is buying the 115 call with Aug. 9 expiration, selling two of the 120 calls, and buying a 125 call. This trade works if options expire at the strike price of the 120 calls.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-02  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, gordon, mark, channel, 230, week, earnings, higher, volatility, upper, record, massive, stock, 120


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These five stocks are the best performers since man landed on the moon

Fifty years ago, man landed on the moon and a handful of stocks took off into the stratosphere. At least one of those stocks still has more fuel in its jet, says Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray. “The second stock is Disney,” Johnson added. Ride-hailing companies Uber and Lyft have underperformed since making their market debut earlier this year. Disclosure: Tatro and Joule are long Disney, Lyft and Uber.


Fifty years ago, man landed on the moon and a handful of stocks took off into the stratosphere. At least one of those stocks still has more fuel in its jet, says Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray. “The second stock is Disney,” Johnson added. Ride-hailing companies Uber and Lyft have underperformed since making their market debut earlier this year. Disclosure: Tatro and Joule are long Disney, Lyft and Uber.
These five stocks are the best performers since man landed on the moon Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-19  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stock, disney, lyft, stocks, moon, companies, tatro, market, johnson, uber, best, performers, price, perspective, landed, man


These five stocks are the best performers since man landed on the moon

Houston, we have liftoff.

Fifty years ago, man landed on the moon and a handful of stocks took off into the stratosphere. Since July 1969, McDonald’s has rocketed more than 82,000%, Lowe’s nearly 70,000%, Altria 49,000%, Hasbro 43,000% and Disney 40,000%.

At least one of those stocks still has more fuel in its jet, says Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray.

“If you look at McDonald’s, it’s been a slow and steady burn higher here in this stock and from our perspective, there’s been this really nice price channel that’s been unfolding over the past five years,” Johnson said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation. ”

“A move to the upper end of the price channel can put this stock up toward $265, so from our perspective that’s one that we would continue to focus on,” said Johnson.

A rally to $265 implies 23% upside from current levels. It would also mark a record for the stock, which hit an all-time high Thursday.

“The second stock is Disney,” Johnson added. “This stock has been forming a really nice consolidation over the last five years. It recently just broke out. We added it into our model portfolio and from our perspective based upon the size of the breakout, we could see this stock moving up toward $160. So clearly this is a stock that has more room to run.”

Disney could add another 13% before it hits $160, also a record high for the stock, which hit an all-time peak a week ago.

Quint Tatro, president of Joule Financial, says Disney is the best in show among the top winners over the last half century.

“This is a company that continues to reinvent themselves. We like them. We own them. We do believe in the next 50 years, we’ll still be talking about Disney,” said Tatro.

However, Tatro is more excited about the companies whose innovation will dominate the consumer space, and stock market, over the next 50 years.

“We do like what we believe are the future of great American franchise companies like an Uber or a Lyft and, I know not very popular, but our belief is that these industry-revolutionizing companies are going to be the ones that compound over the next several decades and the ones that provide the great opportunities going forward, ” said Tatro.

Ride-hailing companies Uber and Lyft have underperformed since making their market debut earlier this year. Uber is trading 3% below its March IPO price, while Lyft has climbed 9% off its own.

Disclosure: Tatro and Joule are long Disney, Lyft and Uber.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-19  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stock, disney, lyft, stocks, moon, companies, tatro, market, johnson, uber, best, performers, price, perspective, landed, man


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Microsoft has a clear path 15% higher from here, technician says

The tech giant is reporting earnings after the bell Thursday, and one technician sees a breakout ahead. Microsoft has surged 34% this year, outpacing the XLK technology ETF’s 30% gain and the S&P 500’s 19% advance. It would need to fall nearly 4% to return to Stockton’s $131 support level. Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Butcher Joseph Asset Management, said the fundamentals also support more upside for Microsoft. Analysts anticipate 7% increase in earnings and 9% sales growth for


The tech giant is reporting earnings after the bell Thursday, and one technician sees a breakout ahead. Microsoft has surged 34% this year, outpacing the XLK technology ETF’s 30% gain and the S&P 500’s 19% advance. It would need to fall nearly 4% to return to Stockton’s $131 support level. Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Butcher Joseph Asset Management, said the fundamentals also support more upside for Microsoft. Analysts anticipate 7% increase in earnings and 9% sales growth for
Microsoft has a clear path 15% higher from here, technician says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, higher, stock, tengler, path, support, technician, clear, 131, uptrend, reporting, growth, microsoft, 15, sales, upside


Microsoft has a clear path 15% higher from here, technician says

Microsoft, the world’s largest publicly traded company, could get even bigger.

The tech giant is reporting earnings after the bell Thursday, and one technician sees a breakout ahead.

“Microsoft is really a momentum story and has been for more than several months now. It’s a long-term uptrend, it’s an intermediate term uptrend,” said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday.

Microsoft has surged 34% this year, outpacing the XLK technology ETF’s 30% gain and the S&P 500’s 19% advance. It has nearly doubled in value over the past two years.

“The stock, of course, having been where it has been, has a lot of support. Initially, it’s right around $131. It doesn’t mean it has to get back to that level, but it certainly would be very safe, in terms of preserving its uptrend on a pullback of that magnitude,” said Stockton.

The stock broke above $131 in early June and has held above $135 this month. It would need to fall nearly 4% to return to Stockton’s $131 support level.

“The last breakout that we had from Microsoft on the chart yielded a very aggressive, and maybe too aggressive, long-term target of about $156 for Microsoft — so, that shows you potential upside when you don’t have any resistance left on a chart,” she added.

Microsoft would need to rally another 15% to reach $156. It would mark a fresh record for the stock.

Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Butcher Joseph Asset Management, said the fundamentals also support more upside for Microsoft.

“We see the company hitting on all cylinders,” said Tengler. “Azure is growing at, you know, 70%-plus year over year. We expect them to beat this quarter. If you look at the surveys from customers, at the margin, business is moving to Microsoft away from Amazon. So, we think that is the primary source of the good news.”

Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform, regularly reports double-digit revenue growth. In its most recent reporting stretch, ending March, Azure sales grew by 73%, the strongest growth of all its product and service segments.

“We still like this stock. It’s one of our largest holdings, and we’ve been trimming it as it continues to appreciate, but it still represents almost 5% of our holdings,” said Tengler.

Analysts anticipate 7% increase in earnings and 9% sales growth for its fourth quarter, ended June, according to FactSet estimates.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, higher, stock, tengler, path, support, technician, clear, 131, uptrend, reporting, growth, microsoft, 15, sales, upside


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Here’s why hedge fund manager Ray Dalio’s gold case may be wrong

Gold prices moved even higher Wednesday after billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio picked the commodity as one of his top investments. The GLD ETF, which mirrors gold prices, is also at mid-2013 highs. “The next resistance for gold prices is around $1,590. That’s based on the technician’s favorite level — the Fibonacci retracement levels — and I think that upside is very realistic for gold based on that base breakout that we’ve seen,” said Stockton. A Fibonacci retracement tracks support and


Gold prices moved even higher Wednesday after billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio picked the commodity as one of his top investments. The GLD ETF, which mirrors gold prices, is also at mid-2013 highs. “The next resistance for gold prices is around $1,590. That’s based on the technician’s favorite level — the Fibonacci retracement levels — and I think that upside is very realistic for gold based on that base breakout that we’ve seen,” said Stockton. A Fibonacci retracement tracks support and
Here’s why hedge fund manager Ray Dalio’s gold case may be wrong Cached Page below :
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Here's why hedge fund manager Ray Dalio's gold case may be wrong

One commodity has proven a golden opportunity in the past week.

The price of gold has moved 1% higher against a slight drop for the S&P 500 as investors favored a safety hedge following the stock market’s record run.

Gold prices moved even higher Wednesday after billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio picked the commodity as one of his top investments. In a LinkedIn post, he said the asset could act as a defensive play as global markets undergo a “paradigm shift.”

Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Butcher Joseph Asset Management, is loathe to disagree with Dalio, but she isn’t buying that argument in favor of gold.

“I do see it more as a trading opportunity, so a short-term place to place funds but not a paradigm shift as [Dalio] tends to describe as a 10-year trend,” Tengler said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation. ”

“We would advise clients to put some money in at current levels as a protection against slowing global growth, potentially a Fed that may not be as easy as some expect, and some market volatility, but I don’t see this as a long-term trade at this level.”

Gold is the best-performing commodity this year. Its gains are nearly double those of second-best performer platinum.

Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton is more bullish on the long-term prospects for gold.

“We saw a major base breakout in gold in June and we saw gaps up in the likes of GLD [gold ETF] and really the gold prices have managed to hold that gap which I see as a positive development, ” Stockton said on the segment. “The consolidation phase now appears to be resolved to the upside, so that really frees up gold to see some upside follow through.”

Gold has broken out in the past three months, rallying 12% and tripling the gains on the S&P 500 over that stretch. It now trades at levels not seen since April 2013. The GLD ETF, which mirrors gold prices, is also at mid-2013 highs.

“The next resistance for gold prices is around $1,590. That’s based on the technician’s favorite level — the Fibonacci retracement levels — and I think that upside is very realistic for gold based on that base breakout that we’ve seen,” said Stockton.

Gold would need to surge 11% before hitting $1,590. A Fibonacci retracement tracks support and resistance levels based upon how much an asset has pulled back from highs or rallied off lows. That $1,590 level marks an 61.8% retracement from its September 2011 high to its December 2015 low.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, case, dalio, wrong, commodity, manager, dalios, retracement, fund, gold, based, asset, 1590, hedge, levels, heres, upside, prices, ray


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What the market is getting wrong about earnings and trade

After more than a year of tariffs, a U.S.-China trade deal is still out of reach. CFRA Research investment strategist Lindsey Bell says this is what the markets are getting wrong about trade, and she sees the biggest detachment from reality showing up in an unexpected place. But I think companies that do miss on earnings and revenue, and guide down, are really going to get hit hard,” said Bell. The give-and-take of “good earnings and bad earnings [is] just going to keep this market in line at th


After more than a year of tariffs, a U.S.-China trade deal is still out of reach. CFRA Research investment strategist Lindsey Bell says this is what the markets are getting wrong about trade, and she sees the biggest detachment from reality showing up in an unexpected place. But I think companies that do miss on earnings and revenue, and guide down, are really going to get hit hard,” said Bell. The give-and-take of “good earnings and bad earnings [is] just going to keep this market in line at th
What the market is getting wrong about earnings and trade Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-17  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, deal, wrong, bell, market, getting, going, president, markets, earnings, think, companies, trade


What the market is getting wrong about earnings and trade

After more than a year of tariffs, a U.S.-China trade deal is still out of reach.

Yet markets have taken it better than expected. The S&P 500 has roared 20% higher this year, tracking for its best annual performance since 2013, and has hit records as recently as Monday.

CFRA Research investment strategist Lindsey Bell says this is what the markets are getting wrong about trade, and she sees the biggest detachment from reality showing up in an unexpected place.

“I see the risks primarily in the fourth quarter of this year,” Bell told CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Tuesday. “The consensus EPS is looking for over 6% growth in that quarter. I think it assumes that a trade deal is going to be done sooner rather than later, and I think that’s the major risk that the market really is just anticipating that, and not anticipating the risks that are associated with that. ”

President Donald Trump reminded markets on Tuesday that distance between negotiations and a deal is still vast and that additional tariffs are on the table. However, markets barely reacted — the Dow ended the day down just 9 points.

“You see [Chinese] President Xi and President Trump going back and forth with each other. These are big issues that need to be resolved, and I don’t think it can be resolved overnight,” Bell said. “And we haven’t gotten indication that they’re making major progress yet.”

Bell says a reset of second-half expectations could materialize in companies’ outlooks as the earnings season progresses.

“Corporations are going to bring guidance down as they release second-quarter earnings. We’ve already heard from a couple industrial companies who have highlighted the risk in that, and even the banks I would point to today. Their underwriting business was very weak,” said Bell.

As trade expectations are tempered, Bell sees more of a consolidation occurring in markets rather than a sell-off. This, she says, should benefit stock pickers.

“You’re going to see is the digestion at these high levels. The market is trading at 18 times and you can argue lower interest rates and lower inflation means that multiple can continue to expand. But I think companies that do miss on earnings and revenue, and guide down, are really going to get hit hard,” said Bell. The give-and-take of “good earnings and bad earnings [is] just going to keep this market in line at these high levels.”

The second-quarter earnings season is in full swing this week — Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and CSX reported earlier this week, while Netflix, eBay and Microsoft are coming up. With just 6% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings so far, blended earnings have contracted nearly 3%.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-17  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, deal, wrong, bell, market, getting, going, president, markets, earnings, think, companies, trade


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Trader who called the AMD breakout sees another 50% rally for the chip stock

There’s an even larger rally ahead for AMD, says Gordon. AMD would need to rally another 48% to hit the upper end of that trend channel at $50. It would also mark a record high — AMD last hit a peak of $48.50 in mid-2000. Gordon is putting on a trade to capture a move up to that resistance level. This is a bet AMD can move as high as $45 a share through to the expiration of the options contract.


There’s an even larger rally ahead for AMD, says Gordon. AMD would need to rally another 48% to hit the upper end of that trend channel at $50. It would also mark a record high — AMD last hit a peak of $48.50 in mid-2000. Gordon is putting on a trade to capture a move up to that resistance level. This is a bet AMD can move as high as $45 a share through to the expiration of the options contract.
Trader who called the AMD breakout sees another 50% rally for the chip stock Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-16  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 50, resistance, upper, breakout, rally, level, called, gordon, trend, semiconductor, sees, high, chip, expiration, amd, stock, trader


Trader who called the AMD breakout sees another 50% rally for the chip stock

One semiconductor stock has soared above the rest in the past three months.

Advanced Micro Devices has exploded 21% higher since mid-April, making it the best performer on the SMH semiconductor ETF over the stretch and adding to massive gains for the year.

Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com, got it right. He said the rally would keep on roaring back in May.

“It’s had a pretty significant breakout period here,” Gordon told CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Tuesday.

On May 28, Gordon put on a 30/34 call spread that would have made the most profit if AMD ended as high as $34 by its July 19 expiration. AMD broke above $34 this week and has rallied nearly 30% since that call.

There’s an even larger rally ahead for AMD, says Gordon.

“This is beginning to sort of develop into a generational breakout in AMD,” he explained. “Look at the 2000 peak. We have a series of descending tops here which are lining up quite well, and as you can see, we’re beginning to poke our head above that downtrend resistance level that’s sourced from 19 years ago.”

By charting the upward trend channel, Gordon has identified a level of resistance on the upper end.

“The resistance levels should come in approximately in the $50 region if we extend this higher,” he said. “A potential technical ceiling won’t come in until about $50.”

AMD would need to rally another 48% to hit the upper end of that trend channel at $50. It would also mark a record high — AMD last hit a peak of $48.50 in mid-2000.

Gordon is putting on a trade to capture a move up to that resistance level. He is buying the Oct. 18 expiration 35 call and selling the 45 call. This is a bet AMD can move as high as $45 a share through to the expiration of the options contract.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-16  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 50, resistance, upper, breakout, rally, level, called, gordon, trend, semiconductor, sees, high, chip, expiration, amd, stock, trader


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