November’s jobs report to show pick-up in pace from October, but mostly because of GM effect

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected 187,000 jobs were added in November, and Refinitiv’s consensus forecast was 180,000. I think we’ll see manufacturing payrolls up by about 50,000.” The economy added 128,000 jobs in October, including the negative impact of the General Motors strike, which reduced vehicle and parts manufacturing jobs by 42,000. The most sluggish pace in the last five years was 2017, when 1.76 million jobs were added through October. ADP’s payrolls reported this week showe


Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected 187,000 jobs were added in November, and Refinitiv’s consensus forecast was 180,000.
I think we’ll see manufacturing payrolls up by about 50,000.”
The economy added 128,000 jobs in October, including the negative impact of the General Motors strike, which reduced vehicle and parts manufacturing jobs by 42,000.
The most sluggish pace in the last five years was 2017, when 1.76 million jobs were added through October.
ADP’s payrolls reported this week showe
November’s jobs report to show pick-up in pace from October, but mostly because of GM effect Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-05  Authors: patti domm
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, report, pickup, novembers, jobs, growth, payrolls, added, manufacturing, number, economy, pace, effect, workers, trade


November's jobs report to show pick-up in pace from October, but mostly because of GM effect

Workers in the Peterborough Amazon Fulfilment Centre prepare for Black Friday on November 27, 2019 in Peterborough, England.

Job growth should appear strong in November as striking GM workers returned to the workforce.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected 187,000 jobs were added in November, and Refinitiv’s consensus forecast was 180,000. Wages are expected to rise by 0.3% in the month, and unemployment is expected to remain at 3.6%. The government’s monthly employment report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

“I think we’ll see 215,000 payrolls,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies. “I think the big feature will be the reversal of the negative affect of the GM strike. I think we’ll see manufacturing payrolls up by about 50,000.”

The economy added 128,000 jobs in October, including the negative impact of the General Motors strike, which reduced vehicle and parts manufacturing jobs by 42,000.

But even if November nonfarm payrolls hit the 200,000 expected by some economists, the trend of job growth has downshifted to something more like 150,000 when excluding the GM effect. For the year so far, monthly job growth has averaged 167,000, compared to 2018’s pace of 233,000.

According to government data, the economy has added 1.67 million jobs for the year, as of October, and that’s the slowest growth since 2010, when just 838,000 payrolls were added through October.

The most sluggish pace in the last five years was 2017, when 1.76 million jobs were added through October. Last year, 2.26 million were added.McCarthy said the sluggishness this year has a lot to do with a lack of available workers, but also some impact from the trade war.

“The labor market reflects the economy but also reflects the number of heads around that you can hire. The economy is not a problem for the labor market now. The problem is there’s not enough people. There are shortages in food services, construction.”

McCarthy said trade has also impacted hiring. “It’s been a factor in manufacturing, and any trade dependent service jobs have probably struggled as well,” he said. “That’s a pretty small piece of the economy.”

ADP’s payrolls reported this week showed just 67,000 jobs added in November, a surprising decline. The surprise weakness in the ADP number was due in part to a loss of 18,000 goods-producing jobs that were from natural resources, mining, construction and manufacturing.

Trade, transportation and utilities, usually a robust sector, declined by 15,000, and information services fell by 8,000. Small business was also hit, with a decline of 15,000 workers in businesses with fewer than 20 employees.

Joseph Song, senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said he expects 195,000 jobs in the government report, and without GM workers, the number would be closer to trend at 150,000.

Economists say 150,000 is still a decent level of growth, and the economy needs about 100,000 jobs to grow.

“We’re expecting the job market to stay on this steady trajectory,” Song said. “That said the ADP number we got a few days ago suggests there could be some downside risk. It wasn’t just manufacturing. It was trade and transportation…That would be because businesses are not buying as many Chinese goods, so the need for truckers and shippers are declining.”

Economists do not expect the report, or even a slower pace of job growth to impact the Fed, which meets next week.

“Barring something that’s teeth rattling, it’s really not going to have an effect on monetary policy,” McCarthy said.

CNBC’s Juan Aruego contributed to this report.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-05  Authors: patti domm
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, report, pickup, novembers, jobs, growth, payrolls, added, manufacturing, number, economy, pace, effect, workers, trade


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November ISM non-manufacturing index shows sector slowing

U.S. services sector activity slowed more than expected in November amid lingering concerns about trade tensions and worker shortages, which could revive fears about the economy’s health. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday its non-manufacturing activity index fell to a reading of 53.9 in last month from 54.7 in October. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Economists polled by Re


U.S. services sector activity slowed more than expected in November amid lingering concerns about trade tensions and worker shortages, which could revive fears about the economy’s health.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday its non-manufacturing activity index fell to a reading of 53.9 in last month from 54.7 in October.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Economists polled by Re
November ISM non-manufacturing index shows sector slowing Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-04  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, activity, index, month, sector, manufacturing, ism, slowing, nonmanufacturing, trade, reading, services, shows, fourth


November ISM non-manufacturing index shows sector slowing

Lead waitress Rhonda Abdullah serving the Taylor’s, James and Voncia of Aurora their lunch at the Welton Street Cafe that will turn 20 this year, the last-standing soul food restaurant in the Five Points neighborhood in Denver, Colorado on June 7, 2019.

U.S. services sector activity slowed more than expected in November amid lingering concerns about trade tensions and worker shortages, which could revive fears about the economy’s health.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday its non-manufacturing activity index fell to a reading of 53.9 in last month from 54.7 in October. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index dipping to a reading of 54.5 in November.

The ISM reported on Monday that manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth straight month in November, with new orders falling back to around their lowest level since 2012. The continued manufacturing slump tempered growth expectations for the fourth quarter, which had been boosted by a rush of upbeat reports on the trade deficit, housing and business investment.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-04  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, activity, index, month, sector, manufacturing, ism, slowing, nonmanufacturing, trade, reading, services, shows, fourth


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5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday

Wall Street set for higher openTraders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange. Brendan McDermid | ReutersU.S. stock futures were pointing to a higher Wall Street open on Monday — the first trading day of December, which has historically been the strongest month of the year. The market, after months of selling, bottomed on Christmas Eve before staging a 2019 rally that could give stocks their best yearly gains in a generation. China repeats calls for US tariff rollbackChinese President


Wall Street set for higher openTraders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange.
Brendan McDermid | ReutersU.S. stock futures were pointing to a higher Wall Street open on Monday — the first trading day of December, which has historically been the strongest month of the year.
The market, after months of selling, bottomed on Christmas Eve before staging a 2019 rally that could give stocks their best yearly gains in a generation.
China repeats calls for US tariff rollbackChinese President
5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: matthew j belvedere
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, things, know, market, billion, wall, 2019, opens, stock, manufacturing, street, president, trade, house, trump, china


5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday

1. Wall Street set for higher open

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange. Brendan McDermid | Reuters

U.S. stock futures were pointing to a higher Wall Street open on Monday — the first trading day of December, which has historically been the strongest month of the year. However, in December 2018, the S&P 500 dropped more than 9%. The market, after months of selling, bottomed on Christmas Eve before staging a 2019 rally that could give stocks their best yearly gains in a generation. The S&P 500, as of Friday’s close, was up more than 25% this year. The outcome of discussions on a “phase one” trade deal between the U.S. and China could make or break whether Wall Street gets a so-called Santa Claus rally, gains that have often occurred late in December as money managers, traders and investors lock in yearly profits.

2. China repeats calls for US tariff rollback

Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump at the G-20 Summit in Osaka on June 29, 2019. Brendan Smialowsi | AFP | Getty Images

China on Monday once again demanded the U.S. commit to rolling back tariffs as part of any trade agreement. President Donald Trump has been resistant to that idea, even as new levies are set to go into effect Dec. 15 on many Chinese-made products, including laptops and smartphones. While both sides last week suggested they were close to striking a deal, China on Monday said it was barring the U.S. Navy from making port calls in Hong Kong. Beijing also announced unspecified sanctions on pro-democracy groups. Trump signed legislation last week supporting human rights in Hong Kong as months of anti-government protests persist. In a brighter spot for China’s tariff-damaged economy, a private survey Monday showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded more than expected in November.

3. US manufacturing may show signs of recovery

A General Motors assembly worker works on assembling a V6 engine, used in a variety of GM cars, trucks and crossovers, at the GM Romulus Powertrain plant in Romulus, Michigan, August 21, 2019. Rebecca Cook | Reuters

Manufacturing, the most vulnerable sector in the U.S. economy due to the China trade war, could also show signs of a recovery. The Institute for Supply Management’s November manufacturing index is out at 10 a.m. ET. The gauge in October showed manufacturing contraction for a third straight month. The first signs of contraction surfaced in August, ending a 35-month run of expansion. September saw the lowest index reading since June 2009 as exports took a dive on fallout from the trade war. Manufacturing was once considered a big winner under the Trump administration, with improvements in employment and activity over the past few years.

4. Record Cyber Monday seen as users shop more online

Big tech platforms have consumer data histories to inform advertising strategies, but lack of personalization in ads is still a big problem for the e-commerce industry. VIEW press | Corbis News | Getty Images

Cyber Monday online shopping is expected to hit an even bigger record this year, with users seen spending $9.4 billion in a nearly 19% increase from 2018. Shoppers over the long Thanksgiving weekend, including Black Friday, opted to buy more online, which hurt mall traffic. For the entire holiday season, Adobe is anticipating shoppers will spend a $143.7 billion online. Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation is forecasting U.S. holiday retail sales over the two months in 2019 will increase by 3.8% to 4.2% from a year ago, for a total of $727.9 billion to $730.7 billion. That compares with an average annual increase of 3.7% over the past five years.

5. Trump won’t participate in this week’s House Judiciary hearing

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler (D-NY) holds a news conference to discuss the Committee’s oversight agenda following the Mueller Hearing in Washington, July 26, 2019. Erin Scott | Reuters

The White House will not participate in the House Judiciary Committee’s first impeachment hearing Wednesday but left open the possibility that it may take part in future proceedings. In a letter to committee chairman Rep. Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., White House Counsel Pat Cipollone said the hearing does “not begin to provide the president with any semblance of a fair process.” But Cipollone said Trump may participate if he is allowed to do so “meaningfully.” The president leaves Monday morning for a NATO summit in London. Trump got back to the U.S. on Friday after a surprise Thanksgiving trip to Afghanistan to visit U.S. troops.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: matthew j belvedere
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, things, know, market, billion, wall, 2019, opens, stock, manufacturing, street, president, trade, house, trump, china


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A private survey shows China’s manufacturing activity expanded more than expected in November

A private survey on Monday showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded more than expected in November as the Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 51.8. Caixin and IHS Markit said the PMI data signaled a “further modest improvement” in the health of China’s manufacturing sector attributed to “solid increases” in output and new business. China’s official PMI was 50.2 in November, up from 49.3 in October to hit its highest level since March, China’s National Bu


A private survey on Monday showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded more than expected in November as the Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 51.8.
Caixin and IHS Markit said the PMI data signaled a “further modest improvement” in the health of China’s manufacturing sector attributed to “solid increases” in output and new business.
China’s official PMI was 50.2 in November, up from 49.3 in October to hit its highest level since March, China’s National Bu
A private survey shows China’s manufacturing activity expanded more than expected in November Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: huileng tan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, expanded, expected, evanspritchard, chinas, survey, pmi, zhong, manufacturing, activity, trade, remained, data, improvement, private, shows


A private survey shows China's manufacturing activity expanded more than expected in November

Workers make toys for export at a plant on July 16, 2019 in Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province of China.

A private survey on Monday showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded more than expected in November as the Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 51.8.

Caixin and IHS Markit said in a joint press release that the pace of improvement was the strongest since December 2016.

The index was expected to have fallen to 51.4 in November from 51.7 in October, according to economists polled by Reuters.

PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below that level signal contraction.

Caixin and IHS Markit said the PMI data signaled a “further modest improvement” in the health of China’s manufacturing sector attributed to “solid increases” in output and new business. Employment in the sector also remained broadly stable, they added.

China’s official PMI was 50.2 in November, up from 49.3 in October to hit its highest level since March, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday.

The official PMI survey typically polls a large proportion of big businesses and state-owned enterprises. The Caixin indicator features a bigger mix of small- and medium-sized firms.

“The synchronized improvement in the survey data does point toward some uptick in growth last month,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy.

The data come as U.S. and China remained locked in a long-drawn trade dispute that has weighed on sentiment.

In November, “business confidence remained subdued, as concerns about policies and market conditions persisted, and their willingness to replenish stocks remained limited,” wrote Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a subsidiary of Caixin.

“This is a major constraint on economic recovery, which requires continuous policy support,” Zhong added.

But, investors around the world have been eagerly awaiting the signing of a trade agreement since Trump said in October that the U.S. had come to a “very substantial phase one deal” with China.

“If trade negotiations between China and the U.S. can progress in the next phase and business confidence can be repaired effectively, manufacturing production and investment is likely to see a solid improvement,” Zhong said.

Capital Economic’s Evans-Pritchard was less upbeat.

“With credit growth slowing and property construction still expanding at an unsustainable rate, we doubt (the data) signals the bottom of the current economic cycle,” Evans-Pritchard said in a note on Monday.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: huileng tan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, expanded, expected, evanspritchard, chinas, survey, pmi, zhong, manufacturing, activity, trade, remained, data, improvement, private, shows


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Markets are counting down to the Dec. 15 trade deadline and could be choppy until then

Stocks could have a hard time charging ahead until the Trump administration clarifies whether it will impose new tariffs on China on Dec. 15. “I think you can see that each time the market makes new all-time highs, trade tensions escalate and markets become more volatile and sell off. Analysts said they expect some sort of trade deal that halts the next round of tariffs on Chinese goods by Dec. 15, the date the tariffs are expected to take effect. When we think about this whole year, many times


Stocks could have a hard time charging ahead until the Trump administration clarifies whether it will impose new tariffs on China on Dec. 15.
“I think you can see that each time the market makes new all-time highs, trade tensions escalate and markets become more volatile and sell off.
Analysts said they expect some sort of trade deal that halts the next round of tariffs on Chinese goods by Dec. 15, the date the tariffs are expected to take effect.
When we think about this whole year, many times
Markets are counting down to the Dec. 15 trade deadline and could be choppy until then Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: patti domm
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, markets, market, counting, deal, manufacturing, brazil, hard, deadline, think, dec, china, trade, choppy, tariffs, trump


Markets are counting down to the Dec. 15 trade deadline and could be choppy until then

Stocks could have a hard time charging ahead until the Trump administration clarifies whether it will impose new tariffs on China on Dec. 15.

The market has had a countdown clock set to that date, but now it is even more in focus as progress appears to have slowed in talks with China. In addition, President Donald Trump on Monday said he would put tariffs on steel and aluminum exports from Brazil and Argentina, claiming the two countries have been devaluing their currencies.

“In order for the market to break through to new highs, we need resolution on trade, especially U.S.-China trade,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “I think you can see that each time the market makes new all-time highs, trade tensions escalate and markets become more volatile and sell off. That happened in May, and August, and now in the last couple of days. It’s become a vicious cycle.”

Stocks have had a rocky start to the month of December, with the biggest decline in nearly two months after ISM manufacturing data missed estimates. The sting from the weak report was even worse since economists have been looking for that number to show that the manufacturing downturn has bottomed. But instead it fell to 48.1, a deeper contraction that the 48.3 in October, and the new orders index was at its lowest since April, 2009.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in an interview Monday that the U.S. would go ahead on tariffs on another wave of Chinese goods if there was not deal with China by Dec. 15.

The S&P 500 immediately gave up gains and fell hard, losing about 30 points at its low after the 10 a.m. ET ISM report. Manufacturing has been the sector hardest hit by the global trade war, though China’s PMI showed improvement over night. Stock futures were higher ahead of the market open on the Caixin purchasing managers index, which rose to 51.8. A reading above 50 shows expansion.

“The ISM today was just a reminder that things remain quite uncertain and certainly the decision today on steel tariffs is another reminder of that, and I think that is going to continue to weigh on the economy,” said Lewis Alexander, chief U.S. economist at Nomura.

Strategists expect December to be a good month for stocks, as it normally has been, unlike last December. Many strategists have been expecting a slight pullback before the market rides higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 gained 3.4% in November and more than 25% for the year so far.

“I do think much of December’s action is going to hinge on the trade decision and the headlines and certainly the 15th is the date that is going to overhang the market until there’s some sort of definitive news,” said Arone. “To me, the bigger picture here is share prices reflect that next year will be better for manufacturing, better for global profits … on the back of a better trade environment. News today that you’re tariffing Argentina and Brazil means to me that investors built in too much optimism that trade won’t be an issue in 2020.”

Analysts said they expect some sort of trade deal that halts the next round of tariffs on Chinese goods by Dec. 15, the date the tariffs are expected to take effect. But it’s not clear whether the U.S. will agree to roll back any existing tariffs as requested by China. Also unclear is how much China will do on intellectual property.

“This is the kind of thing none of us can predict,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “It’s really complete speculation. It’s hard to invest money based on something that may have an affect on the market. … When we think about this whole year, many times we talked about trade or tariffs and we’re still up 25%.”

But now that the talks are coming down to the wire, the market gains could be more constrained. “My guess is it will be hard to get a big run up until the deadline passes,” said Keon. “I still think we’ll be higher in December when all is said and done.”

Keon said he expects manufacturing to bottom soon, and noted the positive news from China was encouraging. But a trade deal is still needed.

“There was a sense just a week ago, that a phase one deal was in the bag, and now certainly there is some question about it,” he said.

Keon said the market may be expecting too much to be included in any trade deal, since the U.S. says it is negotiating a first phase of a deal, while Chinese officials do not mention phases.

Strategists the tariffs on Brazil and Argentina are a reminder that Trump can act at any time on tariffs. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office Monday said it would review the possibility of raising tariffs on European Union products and applying tariffs to more products due to a dispute over aircraft subsidies.

“It’s not likely to me that they’re doing much to manipulate their currencies. Their currencies are going down due to market forces,” Keon said. He said Trump may be reacting to increased agriculture sales by Brazil and Argentina to China. “I think Brazil is our biggest competitor in soy beans to China.”

.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: patti domm
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, markets, market, counting, deal, manufacturing, brazil, hard, deadline, think, dec, china, trade, choppy, tariffs, trump


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That big fourth-quarter growth scare looks like it’s not happening

Rebecca Cook | ReutersWhat a difference a couple weeks can make: A slowdown in fourth-quarter growth to near-zero that appeared nearly inevitable has disappeared, fading even with manufacturing still stuck in contraction. Overall, though, the picture for Q4 does not look nearly as bleak as it did the previous two months. The ISM Manufacturing Survey, a bellwether for the goods-producing sector, remained in contraction with a 48.1 reading. That’s generally a sign if not of a robust economy then a


Rebecca Cook | ReutersWhat a difference a couple weeks can make: A slowdown in fourth-quarter growth to near-zero that appeared nearly inevitable has disappeared, fading even with manufacturing still stuck in contraction.
Overall, though, the picture for Q4 does not look nearly as bleak as it did the previous two months.
The ISM Manufacturing Survey, a bellwether for the goods-producing sector, remained in contraction with a 48.1 reading.
That’s generally a sign if not of a robust economy then a
That big fourth-quarter growth scare looks like it’s not happening Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, manufacturing, big, thats, data, fourthquarter, growth, week, survey, scare, economy, reversed, recession, happening, tariffs, looks


That big fourth-quarter growth scare looks like it's not happening

A General Motors assembly worker works on assembling a V6 engine, used in a variety of GM cars, trucks and crossovers, at the GM Romulus Powertrain plant in Romulus, Michigan, August 21, 2019. Rebecca Cook | Reuters

What a difference a couple weeks can make: A slowdown in fourth-quarter growth to near-zero that appeared nearly inevitable has disappeared, fading even with manufacturing still stuck in contraction. A closely watched Federal Reserve gauge that had been pointing to a Q4 flatline in mid-November has reversed course, with Atlanta’s GDP Now indicating 1.3% growth, down from a high of 1.7% a week ago. The tracker had risen in recent days following the release of some positive personal income, durable goods and housing data, then came off a bit on Monday’s ISM Manufacturing survey that was a bit below expectations. Overall, though, the picture for Q4 does not look nearly as bleak as it did the previous two months. Continued pressure from the U.S.-China tariffs, a slowing global economy and low inflation levels had raised fears that a year that started off with a 3.1% GDP gain would end with basically nothing. That no longer appears to be the case.

“We went from a recession scare earlier this summer then to a growth scare to what I would argue is setting ourselves up for a pretty solid 2020, in part because the high-frequency data isn’t as bad as people thought,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis. “People were far too pessimistic.” Indeed, the year had seen a steady crescendo of recession fear that climaxed when the yield curve inverted in late-summer, with shorter-term government bond yields turning higher than their longer-duration counterparts. That phenomenon, however, quickly reversed, and the calls for a 2020 recession have ebbed along with the change.

Manufacturing lags

Monday, however, brought about a fresh reminder that the U.S. economy is far from in the clear. The ISM Manufacturing Survey, a bellwether for the goods-producing sector, remained in contraction with a 48.1 reading. Anything above 50 represents expansion, and this was the fourth straight month below the break-even line. Economists saw two primary takeaways — that manufacturing remains a concern, but the recent numbers suggest that maybe the downturn, largely associated with the tariffs, is forming a bottoming that could be reversed in the months ahead both in the U.S. and globally. “Manufacturing PMIs for November suggest that industrial activity strengthened in most regions,” Bethany Beckett, assistant economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. “This provides another welcome sign that the global industrial downturn may be bottoming out.” Economic data in general is on the rise lately, at least compared to expectations. The Citi Economic Surprise Index, which compares actual readings to Wall Street estimates, is on the uptick thanks to a turn that began around the third week of November. That’s generally a sign if not of a robust economy then at least one that is outperforming a lowered outlook. Federal Reserve officials of late have been giving mostly favorable grades to the U.S. economy while still noting the downside risks and the continued pattern of inflation that has remained troublesomely low. President Donald Trump, in a tweet Monday, repeated his insistence that the Fed should keep cutting. But economists think that’s unlikely so long as the growth pattern remains intact.

Concerns about the Fed


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: jeff cox
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Stocks tumble on manufacturing weakness—here’s what Cramer and other industry pros see ahead

Stocks fell on Monday, the first trading day of the month, as weaker-than-expected results from November’s ISM Manufacturing index reading weighed on the broad market. But the consumer — it’s Target doing great, Walmart doing great versus Kohl’s doing terribly. I actually think this ISM number today actually dovetails pretty well with the tone we just got from 3Q earnings. I think that’s where we are. That’s a lot of excess capacity for further economic recovery and further highs in this market.


Stocks fell on Monday, the first trading day of the month, as weaker-than-expected results from November’s ISM Manufacturing index reading weighed on the broad market.
But the consumer — it’s Target doing great, Walmart doing great versus Kohl’s doing terribly.
I actually think this ISM number today actually dovetails pretty well with the tone we just got from 3Q earnings.
I think that’s where we are.
That’s a lot of excess capacity for further economic recovery and further highs in this market.
Stocks tumble on manufacturing weakness—here’s what Cramer and other industry pros see ahead Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: lizzy gurdus, keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, manufacturing, doing, thats, markets, stocks, tumble, going, month, industry, weve, cramer, lot, look, number, ahead, pros, think, weaknessheres


Stocks tumble on manufacturing weakness—here's what Cramer and other industry pros see ahead

Call it a December dip.

Stocks fell on Monday, the first trading day of the month, as weaker-than-expected results from November’s ISM Manufacturing index reading weighed on the broad market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 270 points, while the S&P 500 posted its worst one-day decline since Oct. 8.

Experts, however, weren’t too concerned about the weakness, citing a largely optimistic macroeconomic picture heading into the end of the year.

Here’s what three of them, including legendary stock picker Jim Cramer, said of the move:

Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s “Mad Money,” said there was “nothing” foreshadowing a major year-end sell-off:

“Nothing worries me in the sense [of] looking for a big sell-off in December. I’m looking for more reasons for it to go higher other than constant reiterations of analysts, which we keep getting, because wow. I mean, November was supposed to be a bad month … and it wasn’t. It was a great month. I’m seeing green shoots in Europe from auto sales. Auto sales are up. [If] we solve Brexit, it’ll be a big matter. … Take a stock like GE. GE’s at [$]11. They’ve got a health-care conference, Investor Day, a lot of good things. I see a lot of down-and-outers doing well. I see a lot of companies that are levered to the enterprise not doing well. Take a look at Dell. That’s enterprise. Cisco is enterprise. But the consumer — it’s Target doing great, Walmart doing great versus Kohl’s doing terribly. … We look at the Adobe numbers, which now is the official tracker of the economy — isn’t that amazing? And that was something [Adobe CEO] Shantanu [Narayen] predicted. And I come back and I say, ‘What the hell is Caterpillar doing at 144 if there’s no [trade] deal?”

RBC Capital Markets’ Lori Calvasina, the firm’s head of U.S. equity strategy, said she wouldn’t be buying the market’s dips just yet:

“We’ve looked at the last month or two, and we’ve said it seems a little bit odd to us. I mean, we do think stocks are going to be higher over the next year. We don’t think we’re headed into a recession. But you look at how markets have acted; they’ve acted like we’re heading into this massive, sharp reacceleration in economic activity, and that just hasn’t been our view. That’s not what we heard in this last reporting season. I actually think this ISM number today actually dovetails pretty well with the tone we just got from 3Q earnings. … I think eventually I’d like to buy on a dip. I mean, we’re looking for 3,350 at the end of next year, so we’re not bearish by any stretch, but at the same time, this list of good stuff going on underneath the surface seems very priced in. If you look at the CFTC data on U.S. equity futures positioning, we’ve just hit a new high, well above where we were, actually, around the tax reform passage in late 2017. Valuations are telling a similar story. So, we’ve hit peaks in positioning and valuation that have set markets up for bad news. I think that’s where we are. We need to see a bit more of a dip, I think, before you jump in and buy.”

Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, said one weaker set of results doesn’t change an otherwise bullish layout:

“Well, it’s a bit [of a] weaker number, … but I don’t think it changes a lot. The international number, as you said, was better. A lot of numbers here have been better of late, too. The GDP Atlanta number just came way up to 1.7% for the final quarter. What I’m impressed by … is the amount of unused capacity we have left even though we’re in the 11th year of an economic recovery and bull market. We’ve got a silent productivity miracle going on where productivity’s popped up in the last three years from what it was in the six years prior to that pretty significantly. We’ve got a rise in the labor force participation rate, which is odd this late in the cycle. Job creation was up 1.4% in the last year, but the unemployment rate only fell two-tenths because we’re having new entrants. We’ve got a surge in household formation going on because millennials are finally aging over 30 years of age. We’ve got a pristine household balance sheet with untapped positive savings sitting there and low debt-to-equity ratios. We’ve got a manufacturing sector which we can revive from a recession again. And we’ve got a wall of worrywarts which you wonder if we could still convert a few of those to some optimists. That’s a lot of excess capacity for further economic recovery and further highs in this market. It’s not going to be a straight line, but I think you’ll want to buy on the dips here if we get some weakness.”

Disclaimer


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: lizzy gurdus, keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, manufacturing, doing, thats, markets, stocks, tumble, going, month, industry, weve, cramer, lot, look, number, ahead, pros, think, weaknessheres


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Dow drops 200 points after worse-than-expected manufacturing data

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 200 points, or 0.8%. Manufacturing activity in the U.S. continued to contract last month, the Institute for Supply Management said. Sentiment was also dented after President Donald Trump said China still wants to make a deal on trade, “but we’ll see what happens.” Trade worries also offset stronger-than-expected manufacturing data out of China. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 51.8 for November, topping a Reuters estimate


The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 200 points, or 0.8%.
Manufacturing activity in the U.S. continued to contract last month, the Institute for Supply Management said.
Sentiment was also dented after President Donald Trump said China still wants to make a deal on trade, “but we’ll see what happens.”
Trade worries also offset stronger-than-expected manufacturing data out of China.
The Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 51.8 for November, topping a Reuters estimate
Dow drops 200 points after worse-than-expected manufacturing data Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, dow, points, 200, month, came, wants, worsethanexpected, manufacturing, tariffs, optimism, trade, drops, data, trump, china


Dow drops 200 points after worse-than-expected manufacturing data

Monday’s losses came after a strong performance in November. The major averages had their biggest monthly gains since June, rallying to record highs. The S&P 500 climbed 3.4% last month while the Dow advanced 3.7%. The Nasdaq rallied 4.5%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 200 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 pulled back 0.8% while the Nasdaq Composite traded 1.4% lower. The major averages started off the session with slight gains before turning lower.

Stocks dropped on Monday, the first trading day of December, as investors digested disappointing economic data along with the latest trade news after capping a month that featured blistering gains.

A General Motors assembly worker moves a V6 engine, used in a variety of GM cars, trucks and crossovers, from the final assembly line at the GM Romulus Powertrain plant in Romulus, Michigan, August 21, 2019.

“The trend and momentum going into December are bullish,” said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Baird. “However, investor optimism is registering as excessive by many of the services we follow. While optimism is not euphoric, excessive investor optimism generally suggests a pause in a bull market.”

Manufacturing activity in the U.S. continued to contract last month, the Institute for Supply Management said. The ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.1 in November. That’s below an estimate of 49.4. Stocks hit their session lows after the data was released.

“All in all, this should take some wind out of the sails of the argument that the U.S. economy is accelerating going into the end of the year,” said Jon Hill, vice president of rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

Sentiment was also dented after President Donald Trump said China still wants to make a deal on trade, “but we’ll see what happens.” There is no clear indication of when both countries will be able to sign an agreement and last week saw fresh tension between Washington and Beijing after Trump signed legislation supporting protesters in Hong Kong.

That comment came after Chinese state media reported Sunday that Beijing wants a cancellation of tariffs for a phase one trade deal.

Trump also said Monday he will restore tariffs on metal imports from Brazil and Argentina. In a tweet, he said: “Brazil and Argentina have been presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies. which is not good for our farmers. Therefore, effective immediately, I will restore the Tariffs on all Steel & Aluminum that is shipped into the U.S. from those countries.”

Trump noted in a separate tweet that “U.S. markets are up as much as 21%” since his first tariffs announcement on March 1, 2018, adding the U.S. is “taking in massive amounts of money.”

The percolating uncertainty around trade came despite Axios reporting, citing a source, that Trump is expected to hold off on additional tariffs against China set to kick in this month in the hopes of striking a deal before year-end.

Trade worries also offset stronger-than-expected manufacturing data out of China. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 51.8 for November, topping a Reuters estimate of 51.4.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, dow, points, 200, month, came, wants, worsethanexpected, manufacturing, tariffs, optimism, trade, drops, data, trump, china


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A key manufacturing index shows the US remains in contraction territory

Manufacturing activity continued to lag in November amid a lag in inventories and new orders, according to the latest ISM Manufacturing reading released Monday. Though the ISM reading is usually reported as a simple number, it actually denotes the percentage of manufacturers planning to expand operations. The report shows that manufacturing “is stuck in a mild recession with little prospect of a real near-term revival. In a related release, the Markit manufacturing reading, known as the Purchasi


Manufacturing activity continued to lag in November amid a lag in inventories and new orders, according to the latest ISM Manufacturing reading released Monday.
Though the ISM reading is usually reported as a simple number, it actually denotes the percentage of manufacturers planning to expand operations.
The report shows that manufacturing “is stuck in a mild recession with little prospect of a real near-term revival.
In a related release, the Markit manufacturing reading, known as the Purchasi
A key manufacturing index shows the US remains in contraction territory Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, growth, reliable, points, expansion, territory, contraction, orders, manufacturing, reading, report, key, ism, remains, trade, index, shows


A key manufacturing index shows the US remains in contraction territory

Manufacturing activity continued to lag in November amid a lag in inventories and new orders, according to the latest ISM Manufacturing reading released Monday.

The reading came in at 48.1 vs. an expectation of 49.4 and the previous month’s reading of 48.3.

Though the ISM reading is usually reported as a simple number, it actually denotes the percentage of manufacturers planning to expand operations. A reading below 50 represents contraction; November was the fourth straight month below the expansion level.

Stocks fell on the report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off more than 150 points at 10:30 am ET.

New orders slumped to 47.2, down 1.9 percentage points from October’s 49.1. Inventories, which are a key input for gross domestic product, came in at 45.5, down 3.4 points from the previous month.

The numbers come amid speculation about the pace of U.S. growth.

Recession worries have ebbed from earlier in the year, when the Treasury yield curve was inverted and flashing what has been a reliable 12-month recession indicator for the past 50 years. GDP growth has averaged around 2.4% in 2019, with the third quarter coming in at 2.1%. However, most forecasters expect the fourth quarter to come in under 2%.

The report shows that manufacturing “is stuck in a mild recession with little prospect of a real near-term revival. This will weigh on job growth and capex over the next few months, to the point where we are not ready to rule out a further [Federal Reserve] easing in January,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note.

Manufacturing is considered a reliable bellwether for how the rest of the economy is doing, though it comprises only about one-fifth of GDP.

Nearly all of the key ISM indicators were at contraction levels in November.

Employment was at 46.6, down 1.1 point for the month, while export orders fell 2.5 points to 47.9 as the U.S. and China continue to look for a resolution to a trade dispute that began more than a year and a half ago.

Supplier deliveries was one of the few metrics in expansion, rising 2.5 points to 52.

In a related release, the Markit manufacturing reading, known as the Purchasing Managers Index, indicated expansion, coming in at 52.6, just above expectations and a bit better than the 51.3 October reading.

The Markit PMI growth reflected an uptick in production and new orders as well as strength in employment indicators. It was the strongest reading in seven months.

Investors will get a close look Friday at the impact the manufacturing slowdown and trade war have had on the broader economy. The Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report comes down that day, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones expecting a sharp rebound in growth to 187,000 from November’s 128,000.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, growth, reliable, points, expansion, territory, contraction, orders, manufacturing, reading, report, key, ism, remains, trade, index, shows


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Manufacturing data, online retail sales, December trading begins: 3 things to watch for Monday

VIEW press | Corbis News | Getty ImagesHere are the most important things to know about Monday before you hit the door. Manufacturing, the most vulnerable sector in the U.S.-China trade war, could show signs of a recovery. The manufacturing gauge had its lowest reading since June 2009 in September as exports dived amid the escalated trade war. First trading day of DecemberMonday is the first day of trading in the last month of 2019. The rising optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal and receding


VIEW press | Corbis News | Getty ImagesHere are the most important things to know about Monday before you hit the door.
Manufacturing, the most vulnerable sector in the U.S.-China trade war, could show signs of a recovery.
The manufacturing gauge had its lowest reading since June 2009 in September as exports dived amid the escalated trade war.
First trading day of DecemberMonday is the first day of trading in the last month of 2019.
The rising optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal and receding
Manufacturing data, online retail sales, December trading begins: 3 things to watch for Monday Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-29  Authors: yun li
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, war, retail, data, uschina, stock, begins, month, sales, sector, stocks, manufacturing, trade, trading, watch, things, online


Manufacturing data, online retail sales, December trading begins: 3 things to watch for Monday

Big tech platforms have consumer data histories to inform advertising strategies, but lack of personalization in ads is still a big problem for the e-commerce industry. VIEW press | Corbis News | Getty Images

Here are the most important things to know about Monday before you hit the door.

1. U.S. manufacturing rebounds?

Manufacturing, the most vulnerable sector in the U.S.-China trade war, could show signs of a recovery. The manufacturing purchasing managers index from the Institute for Supply Management for November comes out on Monday. The gauge showed the sector contracted for a third straight month in October with a reading of 48.3. A number below 50 represents a contraction in the industry. The sector showed its first contraction in a few years in August, ending a 35-month expansion period where the PMI averaged 56.5, according to ISM. The manufacturing gauge had its lowest reading since June 2009 in September as exports dived amid the escalated trade war. China also has its own monthly manufacturing numbers coming out on Monday.

2. First trading day of December

Monday is the first day of trading in the last month of 2019. Will the market finish the year strong? History seems to be on the market’s side, as December has been the best month for the S&P 500 since 1950, up 1.6%, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac. Last year was an outlier, as stocks suffered their worst December since the Great Depression. The S&P 500 just scored its best month since June in November, up more than 3.5%. The rising optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal and receding recession fears have pushed stocks to record highs in recent weeks. While December could be a good month for the stock market, the outcome of trade discussions between the U.S. and China could make or break the rally.

3. Cyber Monday


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-29  Authors: yun li
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, war, retail, data, uschina, stock, begins, month, sales, sector, stocks, manufacturing, trade, trading, watch, things, online


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