Growth forecasts are rising and economy looks nowhere near as bad as bond market predicts

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesBy many measures, the economy is outshining the depressed picture the bond market has been painting of growth, and a big reason is the resilient American consumer. Broadly, we’ve seen some slower growth, but it’s still growth. Yield curve inversionMarkets have been spooked by the steep decline in bond yields since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut July 31, and most recently by the inversion of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. In fairness, U.S. yields h


Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesBy many measures, the economy is outshining the depressed picture the bond market has been painting of growth, and a big reason is the resilient American consumer. Broadly, we’ve seen some slower growth, but it’s still growth. Yield curve inversionMarkets have been spooked by the steep decline in bond yields since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut July 31, and most recently by the inversion of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. In fairness, U.S. yields h
Growth forecasts are rising and economy looks nowhere near as bad as bond market predicts Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-15  Authors: patti domm
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, bad, consumer, sales, yields, rising, forecasts, economy, bond, data, expected, looks, growth, treasury, market, near, predicts


Growth forecasts are rising and economy looks nowhere near as bad as bond market predicts

Shoppers walking in the Herald Square area of New York. Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

By many measures, the economy is outshining the depressed picture the bond market has been painting of growth, and a big reason is the resilient American consumer. The latest batch of U.S. economic data, released Thursday, shows a strong consumer and a mixed picture for manufacturing, but still better than expected. Based on the data, economists surveyed in the CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid Update raised their forecasts for third quarter GDP by 0.2 to a median 2.1% pace of growth. July’s retail sales, which take the pulse of consumer spending, jumped a much stronger-than-expected 0.7%, and two key business indexes for the New York and Philadelphia area showed continued expansion in August. Productivity in the second quarter grew at a better-than-expected pace of 2.3%, but industrial production was weaker, declining 0.2% in July after gaining a revised 0.2% in June. “The U.S. is pretty strong actually. The markets are trading more off the headline risk, particularly around tariffs, than the actual fundamentals, at least from the U.S. data,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Bank. “The jury is still out whether the market is going to be correct here, and whether we are going to see a slowdown. We’re not seeing that in the data. Broadly, we’ve seen some slower growth, but it’s still growth. It’s waning a bit but it’s still kind of a Goldilocks scenario.” Bedikian said the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates, which should help the markets and economy, even though the data shows a fairly solid economy. Another piece of data released Thursday was homebuilders confidence, which rose as mortgage rates fell sharply this month. Builder confidence for single-family homes hit 66 in August, 1 point higher than in July, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything above 50 is considered positive.

Yield curve inversion

Markets have been spooked by the steep decline in bond yields since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut July 31, and most recently by the inversion of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. Inversion means the yield on a shorter duration security, in this case the 2-year Treasury note, moved higher than the longer duration note, or the 10-year Treasury. While the spread is no longer inverted, it still could easily move that way again. An inverted curve has been a very reliable signal of a recession. In fairness, U.S. yields have also been moving lower as investors seek better yielding sovereign debt in the Treasury market. Yields move opposite price, and the yields on some sovereign bonds in Japan and Europe are negative. Bond yields have also been moving lower as global data from China and elsewhere has looked weak, and strategists say the bond market is reflecting both a flight to safety and fear the U.S. will fall into the weakening trends in Asia and Europe. Chris Rupkey, MUFG’s chief financial economist, said the bond market is not reflecting reality but fear brought on by the U.S.-China trade wars. “It’s certainly overstated. If you look at retail sales, one of the signs of a recession is three consecutive monthly declines in retail sales, and we’re seeing just the opposite,” said Rupkey. He noted that retail sales reports were weak at the end of last year and beginning of this year before recovering. Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, had expected the consumer to look strong in July, and her forecast for 0.6% gain was nearly double the sales increase expected in the consensus forecast. One of the big drivers of the gain was Amazon’s Prime Day, which triggered lots of promotional activity at other retailers. “The promotion season was so big, and it was retailers outside of Amazon trying to compete,” said Meyer. She said a weak consumer would not have been lured by promotions. “It shows the consumer was able to spend.” Economists say the consumer has been supported by a solid labor market, which is showing some signs of slowing but still adding jobs at a solid pace. Weekly jobless claims is a closely watched indicator because it is the freshest signal on employment, and one of the first pieces of data to show weakness when the employment picture changes. The weekly jobless report on Thursday showed claims rose by 9,000 to 220,000 last week, but one economist noted the number of new claims being filed has been locked in a narrow range between 207,000 to 222,000 in 13 of the last 14 weeks. “Firms are struggling so much with a scarcity of qualified workers that it is hard to imagine layoffs rising much any time soon unless the economy falls off a cliff,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Pierpont Amherst. The monthly employment report two weeks ago showed the economy added 164,000 nonfarm payrolls in July, nearly as expected and about the average monthly gain for the year. That pace is down from 2018’s strong average monthly job growth of 223,000 payrolls, but economists see the level as still solid, with an unemployment rate at 3.7%. “Factory output is not out of the woods yet in this latest soft patch caused by trade war uncertainty and slowing exports growth,” Rupkey said. “Production is down but not out as the trend is largely sideways since the low for the year was made back in April.”

‘Consumer is two-thirds of the economy’


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-15  Authors: patti domm
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, bad, consumer, sales, yields, rising, forecasts, economy, bond, data, expected, looks, growth, treasury, market, near, predicts


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Growth forecasts are rising and economy looks nowhere near as bad as bond market predicts

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesBy many measures, the economy is outshining the depressed picture the bond market has been painting of growth, and a big reason is the resilient American consumer. Broadly, we’ve seen some slower growth, but it’s still growth. Yield curve inversionMarkets have been spooked by the steep decline in bond yields since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut July 31, and most recently by the inversion of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. In fairness, U.S. yields h


Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesBy many measures, the economy is outshining the depressed picture the bond market has been painting of growth, and a big reason is the resilient American consumer. Broadly, we’ve seen some slower growth, but it’s still growth. Yield curve inversionMarkets have been spooked by the steep decline in bond yields since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut July 31, and most recently by the inversion of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. In fairness, U.S. yields h
Growth forecasts are rising and economy looks nowhere near as bad as bond market predicts Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-15  Authors: patti domm
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, economy, rising, looks, treasury, forecasts, sales, data, expected, growth, bond, market, consumer, yields, bad, near, predicts


Growth forecasts are rising and economy looks nowhere near as bad as bond market predicts

Shoppers walking in the Herald Square area of New York. Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

By many measures, the economy is outshining the depressed picture the bond market has been painting of growth, and a big reason is the resilient American consumer. The latest batch of U.S. economic data, released Thursday, shows a strong consumer and a mixed picture for manufacturing, but still better than expected. Based on the data, economists surveyed in the CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid Update raised their forecasts for third quarter GDP by 0.2 to a median 2.1% pace of growth. July’s retail sales, which take the pulse of consumer spending, jumped a much stronger-than-expected 0.7%, and two key business indexes for the New York and Philadelphia area showed continued expansion in August. Productivity in the second quarter grew at a better-than-expected pace of 2.3%, but industrial production was weaker, declining 0.2% in July after gaining a revised 0.2% in June. “The U.S. is pretty strong actually. The markets are trading more off the headline risk, particularly around tariffs, than the actual fundamentals, at least from the U.S. data,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Bank. “The jury is still out whether the market is going to be correct here, and whether we are going to see a slowdown. We’re not seeing that in the data. Broadly, we’ve seen some slower growth, but it’s still growth. It’s waning a bit but it’s still kind of a Goldilocks scenario.” Bedikian said the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates, which should help the markets and economy, even though the data shows a fairly solid economy. Another piece of data released Thursday was homebuilders confidence, which rose as mortgage rates fell sharply this month. Builder confidence for single-family homes hit 66 in August, 1 point higher than in July, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything above 50 is considered positive.

Yield curve inversion

Markets have been spooked by the steep decline in bond yields since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut July 31, and most recently by the inversion of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. Inversion means the yield on a shorter duration security, in this case the 2-year Treasury note, moved higher than the longer duration note, or the 10-year Treasury. While the spread is no longer inverted, it still could easily move that way again. An inverted curve has been a very reliable signal of a recession. In fairness, U.S. yields have also been moving lower as investors seek better yielding sovereign debt in the Treasury market. Yields move opposite price, and the yields on some sovereign bonds in Japan and Europe are negative. Bond yields have also been moving lower as global data from China and elsewhere has looked weak, and strategists say the bond market is reflecting both a flight to safety and fear the U.S. will fall into the weakening trends in Asia and Europe. Chris Rupkey, MUFG’s chief financial economist, said the bond market is not reflecting reality but fear brought on by the U.S.-China trade wars. “It’s certainly overstated. If you look at retail sales, one of the signs of a recession is three consecutive monthly declines in retail sales, and we’re seeing just the opposite,” said Rupkey. He noted that retail sales reports were weak at the end of last year and beginning of this year before recovering. Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, had expected the consumer to look strong in July, and her forecast for 0.6% gain was nearly double the sales increase expected in the consensus forecast. One of the big drivers of the gain was Amazon’s Prime Day, which triggered lots of promotional activity at other retailers. “The promotion season was so big, and it was retailers outside of Amazon trying to compete,” said Meyer. She said a weak consumer would not have been lured by promotions. “It shows the consumer was able to spend.” Economists say the consumer has been supported by a solid labor market, which is showing some signs of slowing but still adding jobs at a solid pace. Weekly jobless claims is a closely watched indicator because it is the freshest signal on employment, and one of the first pieces of data to show weakness when the employment picture changes. The weekly jobless report on Thursday showed claims rose by 9,000 to 220,000 last week, but one economist noted the number of new claims being filed has been locked in a narrow range between 207,000 to 222,000 in 13 of the last 14 weeks. “Firms are struggling so much with a scarcity of qualified workers that it is hard to imagine layoffs rising much any time soon unless the economy falls off a cliff,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Pierpont Amherst. The monthly employment report two weeks ago showed the economy added 164,000 nonfarm payrolls in July, nearly as expected and about the average monthly gain for the year. That pace is down from 2018’s strong average monthly job growth of 223,000 payrolls, but economists see the level as still solid, with an unemployment rate at 3.7%. “Factory output is not out of the woods yet in this latest soft patch caused by trade war uncertainty and slowing exports growth,” Rupkey said. “Production is down but not out as the trend is largely sideways since the low for the year was made back in April.”

‘Consumer is two-thirds of the economy’


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-15  Authors: patti domm
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, economy, rising, looks, treasury, forecasts, sales, data, expected, growth, bond, market, consumer, yields, bad, near, predicts


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Coming soon to a store near you: more expensive items

Thousands of household products could get more expensive, thanks to the newest round of tariffs the U.S. plans to slap on goods from China next month. “This is a really, really tragic situation for consumers who are living paycheck to paycheck,” said Jack Gillis, a spokesman for the Consumer Federation of America. “These are things that are going to have a real, everyday impact for American consumers,” said David French, senior vice president of government relations at the National Retail Federa


Thousands of household products could get more expensive, thanks to the newest round of tariffs the U.S. plans to slap on goods from China next month. “This is a really, really tragic situation for consumers who are living paycheck to paycheck,” said Jack Gillis, a spokesman for the Consumer Federation of America. “These are things that are going to have a real, everyday impact for American consumers,” said David French, senior vice president of government relations at the National Retail Federa
Coming soon to a store near you: more expensive items Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-08  Authors: annie nova
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, really, consumers, vice, typical, tragic, near, soon, paycheck, coming, tariffs, president, trade, expensive, items, store, spokesman


Coming soon to a store near you: more expensive items

Darby S | Twenty20

Cribs. Toothbrushes. Milk. Thousands of household products could get more expensive, thanks to the newest round of tariffs the U.S. plans to slap on goods from China next month. “This is a really, really tragic situation for consumers who are living paycheck to paycheck,” said Jack Gillis, a spokesman for the Consumer Federation of America. “The administration is negotiating trade deals using our hard-earned dollars,” he said. While previous rounds of the trade war between the world’s largest economies targeted production materials, including steel and aluminium, this time it’s shoes, headphones, pacifiers, bed linens, binders, backpacks, pine nuts and other common items in the crossfire. “These are things that are going to have a real, everyday impact for American consumers,” said David French, senior vice president of government relations at the National Retail Federation.

More than 70% of shoes sold in the U.S. come from China, according to the Footwear Distributors & Retailers of America, an industry organization with more than 500 members, including Walmart, Nike, Crocs and Steven Madden. Matt Priest, president and CEO of the organization, said the price of a typical hunting boot is expected to increase to $222 from $190; a performance running shoe could cost $187 instead of $150. “All very noticeable increases at checkout,” he said. In a letter to the government, Lui Simpson, vice president for global policy at The Association of American Publishers, said tariffs would make price increases on books “inevitable.”

This is a really, really tragic situation for consumers who are living paycheck to paycheck. Jack Gillis spokesman for the Consumer Federation of America

“[T]ariffs would be immediately devastating for the industry,” Simpson wrote. The previous rounds of tariffs have already squeezed people’s budgets. The levies on imports in 2018 cost the typical U.S. household $419, according to a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research. “Further extensions of the tariffs, as recently announced, will further increase these numbers,” said Stephen Redding, a professor at Princeton University and an author of the report.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-08  Authors: annie nova
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, really, consumers, vice, typical, tragic, near, soon, paycheck, coming, tariffs, president, trade, expensive, items, store, spokesman


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Listen to Amazon Alexa speed-reading

Barneys’ bankruptcy called out high rents in NY. But retailers…Retail rents in New York corridors including Fifth Avenue around Grand Central, SoHo and the Upper East Side are nowhere near what they once were in 2014. Even Madison Avenue…Retailread more


Barneys’ bankruptcy called out high rents in NY. But retailers…Retail rents in New York corridors including Fifth Avenue around Grand Central, SoHo and the Upper East Side are nowhere near what they once were in 2014. Even Madison Avenue…Retailread more
Listen to Amazon Alexa speed-reading Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-07  Authors: todd haselton
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, amazon, near, speedreading, retailersretail, ny, listen, high, alexa, upper, including, madison, york, soho, rents


Listen to Amazon Alexa speed-reading

Barneys’ bankruptcy called out high rents in NY. But retailers…

Retail rents in New York corridors including Fifth Avenue around Grand Central, SoHo and the Upper East Side are nowhere near what they once were in 2014. Even Madison Avenue…

Retail

read more


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-07  Authors: todd haselton
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Tsunami warning for parts of Indonesia’s Sumatra, Java after strong quake

People stand outside a shopping mall following an earthquake in Jakarta, Indonesia, Friday, Aug. 2, 2019. The geophysics agency said there was a risk of a tsunami of in southern parts of Pandeglang and Panaitan island in Banten province, and Lampung in Sumatra. The quake could also be felt in other cities such as Yogyakarta on Java island. “It was so scary,” said Gustiani Pratiwi, who was carrying two children near an apartment block in Jakarta when she felt the quake strongly. At Carita beach i


People stand outside a shopping mall following an earthquake in Jakarta, Indonesia, Friday, Aug. 2, 2019. The geophysics agency said there was a risk of a tsunami of in southern parts of Pandeglang and Panaitan island in Banten province, and Lampung in Sumatra. The quake could also be felt in other cities such as Yogyakarta on Java island. “It was so scary,” said Gustiani Pratiwi, who was carrying two children near an apartment block in Jakarta when she felt the quake strongly. At Carita beach i
Tsunami warning for parts of Indonesia’s Sumatra, Java after strong quake Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-02  Authors: lucy handley, james wright
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, island, hit, strong, parts, magnitude, felt, earthquake, sumatra, near, jakarta, tsunami, quake, java, warning, higher, indonesias


Tsunami warning for parts of Indonesia's Sumatra, Java after strong quake

People stand outside a shopping mall following an earthquake in Jakarta, Indonesia, Friday, Aug. 2, 2019. A strong earthquake struck off the coast of Indonesia’s Java island on Friday, swaying buildings as far away as the capital and prompting national authorities to urge those in coastal areas to head to higher ground in case of a tsunami.

Indonesian authorities urged coastal-dwellers to head for higher ground on Friday after a tsunami warning with potential for waves up to three metres (10 feet) following a powerful earthquake off the islands of Sumatra and Java.

The Indonesian geophysics agency issued the warning after the quake, which the U.S. Geological Survey initially said had a magnitude of 7 and hit at a depth of 59 km (37 miles), about 227 km (141 miles) from the city of Teluk Betung.

The magnitude was later lowered to 6.8.

The geophysics agency said there was a risk of a tsunami of in southern parts of Pandeglang and Panaitan island in Banten province, and Lampung in Sumatra.

Indonesia’s disaster mitigation agency said on Twitter that residents near coastlines at risk should “immediately evacuate to higher ground”.

There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties, but strong tremors were felt in Jakarta, the capital, prompting people to run out of office buildings.

The quake could also be felt in other cities such as Yogyakarta on Java island.

“It was so scary,” said Gustiani Pratiwi, who was carrying two children near an apartment block in Jakarta when she felt the quake strongly.

Indonesia is situated on the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, which is frequently hit by earthquakes and sometimes accompanying tsunamis.

The most devastating in recent Indonesian history was on Dec. 26 in 2004, when a magnitude 9.5 quake triggered a massive tsunami that killed around 226,000 people along the shorelines of the Indian Ocean, including more than 126,000 in Indonesia.

Last year, a tsunami hit the city of Palu in Sulawesi island, killing thousands, while a crater collapse at the Anak Krakatau volcano triggered a tsunami that killed at least 430 people in an area near the latest quake.

At Carita beach in Banten, which was affected by the Anak Krakatau quake, a resident described the alarm in the area.

“We are panicking a lot,” Sandi, a resident of Carita beach, told Metro TV by telephone.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-02  Authors: lucy handley, james wright
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, island, hit, strong, parts, magnitude, felt, earthquake, sumatra, near, jakarta, tsunami, quake, java, warning, higher, indonesias


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Three small blasts hit Bangkok as city hosts major security meeting

Three small explosions, one possibly a homemade bomb, injured three people in Bangkok on Friday, as the Thai capital hosted a Southeast Asian security meeting with top diplomats from the United States, China and other world powers. The first explosions were heard just before 9 a.m. (0200 GMT) at two sites near central Bangkok. A third blast was heard shortly afterwards at a government complex hosting several ministries on the northern side of the city. Bangkok is currently hosting a regional sec


Three small explosions, one possibly a homemade bomb, injured three people in Bangkok on Friday, as the Thai capital hosted a Southeast Asian security meeting with top diplomats from the United States, China and other world powers. The first explosions were heard just before 9 a.m. (0200 GMT) at two sites near central Bangkok. A third blast was heard shortly afterwards at a government complex hosting several ministries on the northern side of the city. Bangkok is currently hosting a regional sec
Three small blasts hit Bangkok as city hosts major security meeting Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-02
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, regional, major, city, world, meeting, small, hosts, near, hit, thai, blasts, security, united, states, southeast, hurt, bangkok


Three small blasts hit Bangkok as city hosts major security meeting

Three small explosions, one possibly a homemade bomb, injured three people in Bangkok on Friday, as the Thai capital hosted a Southeast Asian security meeting with top diplomats from the United States, China and other world powers.

The first explosions were heard just before 9 a.m. (0200 GMT) at two sites near central Bangkok. A third blast was heard shortly afterwards at a government complex hosting several ministries on the northern side of the city.

Police said two street cleaners had been hurt by what appeared to be a homemade bomb in the Suan Luang district.

Local news websites showed pictures of them — one sitting on the ground with medics and the other being taken into an ambulance. Neither appeared to have major wounds.

Eyewitnesses said a security guard had also been hurt close to the 77-story King Power Mahanakhon building. The area was partly cordoned off as police searched the area.

Government spokesman Narumon Pinyosinwat said Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha had ordered an investigation.

“The situation is being closely monitored and security measures have been tightened. The public is urged not to panic,” he said.

Bangkok is currently hosting a regional security meeting of foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and their counterparts from world powers including the United States, China and Russia.

None of the blasts on Friday were in the immediate area of the meeting venue.

On Thursday, Thai police said they had found two fake bombs near the venue of the regional security meeting. The packages prompted a brief security scare but were quickly deemed harmless. It was unclear whether the meeting was the target.

Police said two men had been arrested in connection with the fake bombs.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are attending the forum along with other regional and global officials.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-02
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US debt ceiling and budget deal is ‘near final,’ source says

Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury secretary, speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Monday, July 15, 2019. The White House and congressional Democrats have moved close to a budget deal that would raise the U.S. debt ceiling for two years, a source close to the talks told CNBC. An agreement to prevent the U.S. from hitting its borrowing limit and stop government funding from lapsing is “near final,” the person said. The developing deal would suspend the debt c


Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury secretary, speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Monday, July 15, 2019. The White House and congressional Democrats have moved close to a budget deal that would raise the U.S. debt ceiling for two years, a source close to the talks told CNBC. An agreement to prevent the U.S. from hitting its borrowing limit and stop government funding from lapsing is “near final,” the person said. The developing deal would suspend the debt c
US debt ceiling and budget deal is ‘near final,’ source says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-22  Authors: ylan mui jacob pramuk, ylan mui, jacob pramuk
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, ceiling, white, deal, near, close, washington, debt, final, house, budget, congressional, talks, sequester, source


US debt ceiling and budget deal is 'near final,' source says

Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury secretary, speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Monday, July 15, 2019.

The White House and congressional Democrats have moved close to a budget deal that would raise the U.S. debt ceiling for two years, a source close to the talks told CNBC.

An agreement to prevent the U.S. from hitting its borrowing limit and stop government funding from lapsing is “near final,” the person said. Remaining talks relate to “technical language issues,” according to the source.

The developing deal would suspend the debt ceiling through July 31, 2021. It would permanently end the sequester, automatic across the board spending cuts. A sequester would have taken effect in January without congressional action.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-22  Authors: ylan mui jacob pramuk, ylan mui, jacob pramuk
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, ceiling, white, deal, near, close, washington, debt, final, house, budget, congressional, talks, sequester, source


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A ‘sharp correction’ is brewing for the next 18 months, strategist says

Global recession risks are on the rise and we could see a “really sharp correction” within the next 18 months, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research. He suggested that price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, an important metric used by traders to gauge the value of stocks, pointed toward a substantial downturn. “You’ve got the Shiller P/E (ratio) back over 30 times, last seen in the tech bubble, last seen just prior to the 1930s depression,” he explained. Th


Global recession risks are on the rise and we could see a “really sharp correction” within the next 18 months, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research. He suggested that price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, an important metric used by traders to gauge the value of stocks, pointed toward a substantial downturn. “You’ve got the Shiller P/E (ratio) back over 30 times, last seen in the tech bubble, last seen just prior to the 1930s depression,” he explained. Th
A ‘sharp correction’ is brewing for the next 18 months, strategist says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-11  Authors: elliot smith
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 18, suggested, rate, sharp, pe, near, really, harnett, market, seen, strategist, global, correction, brewing, months


A 'sharp correction' is brewing for the next 18 months, strategist says

Global recession risks are on the rise and we could see a “really sharp correction” within the next 18 months, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research. Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Thursday, Harnett suggested that the U.S. Federal Reserve is worried that economic growth will slow and unemployment will rise, leading the central back toward “insurance cuts” to its benchmark rate in the near future. “We don’t think insurance cuts will be enough, we actually think earnings growth is not going to be 7% this year, it’s going to be -5%, and maybe even -10,” Harnett said. He suggested that price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, an important metric used by traders to gauge the value of stocks, pointed toward a substantial downturn.

“You’ve got the Shiller P/E (ratio) back over 30 times, last seen in the tech bubble, last seen just prior to the 1930s depression,” he explained. The Shiller P/E is a valuation measure usually applied to the U.S. S&P 500 equity market. He also pointed toward the trailing P/E in the U.S. market, a valuation based on the last 12 months of actual earnings, sitting at “22 times, higher than it got at its highest level in the 1960s.” “This is a huge recipe for a really sharp correction in global equity markets at some stage in the next 18 months,” he concluded. “And I mean really large, because we are looking at these recession risk models rising, credit impulse numbers in the states are weak, that tends to bring unemployment up and tends to bring equity markets down.” Harnett suggested that typically the scale of decline in the IMS Manufacturing Index, a widely-watched indicator of U.S. economic activity, in the last 12 months and the “weakness of the banking sector around the world” would ordinarily have seen central banks cutting by 100 to 150 basis points, which is why the bond market appears to be pricing in rate cuts. Hopes of a rate cut this month were renewed after a testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell where he signaled easier monetary policy could be on the horizon as “crosscurrents have reemerged.” A major weight on the U.S., and indeed global, economy is its ongoing trade war with China, a dispute which is seemingly unlikely to be resolved in the near future. China has long been a forerunner for global economic growth, but is seen slowing to a near 30-year low of 6.2% in 2019, according to a Reuters poll, despite a raft of support measures designed to spur domestic demand and ease the trade war bruising.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-11  Authors: elliot smith
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 18, suggested, rate, sharp, pe, near, really, harnett, market, seen, strategist, global, correction, brewing, months


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Dollar trims gains as trade optimism fades, Aussie near recent lows post RBA cut

The dollar gave up gains on Tuesday as investors curbed earlier enthusiasm about U.S.-China trade progress while the Australian currency barely budged from recent lows after a central bank rate cut decision offered few clues about future easing. “The tone from the RBA was not that pessimistic, which gives the impression they are somewhat reluctant to cut rates further,” said Yukio Ishizuki, foreign exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo. In a statement the central said it would lower r


The dollar gave up gains on Tuesday as investors curbed earlier enthusiasm about U.S.-China trade progress while the Australian currency barely budged from recent lows after a central bank rate cut decision offered few clues about future easing. “The tone from the RBA was not that pessimistic, which gives the impression they are somewhat reluctant to cut rates further,” said Yukio Ishizuki, foreign exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo. In a statement the central said it would lower r
Dollar trims gains as trade optimism fades, Aussie near recent lows post RBA cut Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-02
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, low, rba, expectations, optimism, gains, cut, recent, rate, trims, fades, uschina, lows, trade, post, near, central, dollar, rates, lower


Dollar trims gains as trade optimism fades, Aussie near recent lows post RBA cut

The dollar gave up gains on Tuesday as investors curbed earlier enthusiasm about U.S.-China trade progress while the Australian currency barely budged from recent lows after a central bank rate cut decision offered few clues about future easing.

The yuan also shed its early rise to trade lower on the day after U.S. President Donald Trump said any deal with China would need to be somewhat tilted in favor of the United States, suggesting negotiations may not proceed smoothly.

The U.S. dollar index against a basket of six major currencies earlier rose to its highest in a week but retreated as doubt set in about the resumption of U.S.-China efforts to resolve their trade war.

Market focus now shifts to Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe, who speaks to business leaders in the northern Australian city of Darwin at 0930 GMT, which could provide clues on how much further interest rates could fall.

“The tone from the RBA was not that pessimistic, which gives the impression they are somewhat reluctant to cut rates further,” said Yukio Ishizuki, foreign exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

“Short positions in the Aussie were already so heavy. Now we’re in a situation where the main risk is for the Aussie to be bought back.”

The Australian dollar was up 0.3% at $0.6983 on Tuesday after slumping 0.9% on Monday, its biggest decline since April 24.

The RBA lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.00%, matching economists’ expectations. In a statement the central said it would lower rates again “if needed,” a phrase some analysts took to mean an additional rate cut is less certain than before.

The U.S. dollar index was little changed at 96.790 on Tuesday having posted its biggest increase since March 7 on Monday on hopes Beijing and Washington were making headway in their trade negotiations.

The United States and China have already imposed tariffs of up to 25% on hundreds of billions of dollars of each other’s goods in a dispute about China’s trade practices that has lasted nearly a year.

The drawn out trade war has slowed global growth and pushed many central banks to cut interest rates to support their economies.

The offshore yuan gave up early gains to trade around 0.2% lower at 6.8690 versus the dollar, on course for its biggest daily decline in a week.

The global investor spotlight will move to U.S. non-farm payrolls data due on Friday, which economists expect to have risen by 160,000 in June, compared with a 75,000 increase in May.

However, analysts expect the dollar will struggle to make substantial gains given expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates due to low inflation and worries about the U.S.-China trade war.

“It would be a mistake to view the rise in the dollar on Monday as the beginning of a broad-based rally,” said Junichi Ishikawa, senior foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

“Treasury yields are capped around 2%, because there are still expectations for Fed rate cuts.”

The euro briefly fell to an eight-day low of $1.1275 before trading little changed at $1.1289. The common currency fell 0.7% on Monday, its biggest-one day decline since March as disappointing economic data triggered a tumble in bond yields and boosted expectations for a European Central Bank rate cut.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-02
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, low, rba, expectations, optimism, gains, cut, recent, rate, trims, fades, uschina, lows, trade, post, near, central, dollar, rates, lower


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Apple will put 2,000 employees in new Seattle hub near Amazon headquarters

New sanctions on Iran may be the end of the diplomatic road:…”What else do you have to do that will actually have to affect the Iranians’ calculus?” said Amos Hochstein, who served as U.S. special envoy for international energy affairs…World Politicsread more


New sanctions on Iran may be the end of the diplomatic road:…”What else do you have to do that will actually have to affect the Iranians’ calculus?” said Amos Hochstein, who served as U.S. special envoy for international energy affairs…World Politicsread more
Apple will put 2,000 employees in new Seattle hub near Amazon headquarters Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-06-24  Authors: emma newburger
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, politicsread, apple, 2000, envoy, headquarters, iranians, hochstein, employees, sanctions, seattle, hub, roadwhat, iran, international, amazon, special, served, near


Apple will put 2,000 employees in new Seattle hub near Amazon headquarters

New sanctions on Iran may be the end of the diplomatic road:…

“What else do you have to do that will actually have to affect the Iranians’ calculus?” said Amos Hochstein, who served as U.S. special envoy for international energy affairs…

World Politics

read more


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-06-24  Authors: emma newburger
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, politicsread, apple, 2000, envoy, headquarters, iranians, hochstein, employees, sanctions, seattle, hub, roadwhat, iran, international, amazon, special, served, near


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