Oil surges 2.7% to nearly 6-month high, settling at $65.70, after Trump cracks down on Iran exports

The administration said the State Department will cease granting sanctions waivers to any country still importing Iranian crude or condensate, an ultra-light form of crude oil, after May 2. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, settled $2.07 higher at $74.04, rising 2.9% for its best closing price since Oct. 31, 2018. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled $1.70 higher at $65.70, surging 2.7% to a nearly six-month closing high. The surprise move is driving the brea


The administration said the State Department will cease granting sanctions waivers to any country still importing Iranian crude or condensate, an ultra-light form of crude oil, after May 2. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, settled $2.07 higher at $74.04, rising 2.9% for its best closing price since Oct. 31, 2018. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled $1.70 higher at $65.70, surging 2.7% to a nearly six-month closing high. The surprise move is driving the brea
Oil surges 2.7% to nearly 6-month high, settling at $65.70, after Trump cracks down on Iran exports Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-22  Authors: tom dichristopher, weizhen tan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, exports, settling, trump, buyers, 6month, sanctions, nearly, surges, oil, high, cracks, iran, crude, waivers, iranian, prices


Oil surges 2.7% to nearly 6-month high, settling at $65.70, after Trump cracks down on Iran exports

Oil prices surged about 3% at midday on Monday, hitting fresh 2019 highs, after the Trump administration announced that all oil buyers will have to end imports from Iran in just over a week or be subject to U.S. sanctions.

The administration said the State Department will cease granting sanctions waivers to any country still importing Iranian crude or condensate, an ultra-light form of crude oil, after May 2.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, settled $2.07 higher at $74.04, rising 2.9% for its best closing price since Oct. 31, 2018. Brent rose as high as $74.52 per barrel around midday, sailing past last week’s 2019 intraday peak at $72.27.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled $1.70 higher at $65.70, surging 2.7% to a nearly six-month closing high. WTI earlier rose as high as $65.92, the strongest level since Oct. 31, 2018. WTI had been trading sideways for about two weeks after peaking at $64.79 earlier in the month.

Crude futures first hit new 2019 highs following report by the Washington Post on the Trump administration’s new policy.

The surprise move is driving the breakout in oil prices, said Michael Bradley, equity strategist at investment bank Tudor Pickering Holt.

“Crude markets were taken by surprise today as the Trump administration indicated it WON’T renew waivers that lets countries purchase Iranian oil without facing U.S. sanctions,” he said in a research note. “Many expected that the US would take tougher action on the waiver front, but most DIDN’T expect an announcement of zero waivers.”

The U.S. reimposed sanctions in November on exports of Iranian oil after U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled out of a nuclear accord struck in 2015 between Iran and world powers. Washington, however, granted eight of Iran’s biggest oil buyers exemptions that allowed them limited purchases for an additional six months.

The eight buyers are China and India — Iran’s biggest customers — as well as Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, Greece, and Taiwan. The waivers have allowed Iran to continue exporting about 1 million barrels per day, down from roughly 2.5 million bpd last year.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-22  Authors: tom dichristopher, weizhen tan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, exports, settling, trump, buyers, 6month, sanctions, nearly, surges, oil, high, cracks, iran, crude, waivers, iranian, prices


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Trump aims to drive Iran’s oil exports to zero by ending sanctions waivers

He said the suppliers have been working directly with Iran’s customers to make the transition away from Iranian barrels less disruptive. The Saudis stopped short of explicitly guaranteeing a change in policy but reiterated its commitment to balancing oil supply and demand. The kingdom will “coordinate with fellow oil producers to ensure adequate supplies are available to consumers while ensuring the global oil market does not go out of balance,” Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Mond


He said the suppliers have been working directly with Iran’s customers to make the transition away from Iranian barrels less disruptive. The Saudis stopped short of explicitly guaranteeing a change in policy but reiterated its commitment to balancing oil supply and demand. The kingdom will “coordinate with fellow oil producers to ensure adequate supplies are available to consumers while ensuring the global oil market does not go out of balance,” Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Mond
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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-22  Authors: tom dichristopher, mary catherine wellons
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, exports, ending, trump, market, zero, stability, saudi, countries, sanctions, drive, waivers, oil, foreign, iran, aims, irans, iranian


Trump aims to drive Iran's oil exports to zero by ending sanctions waivers

Saudi Arabia and UAE have assured the U.S. they will ensure the market has an “appropriate supply,” Pompeo said. He said the suppliers have been working directly with Iran’s customers to make the transition away from Iranian barrels less disruptive.

The Saudis stopped short of explicitly guaranteeing a change in policy but reiterated its commitment to balancing oil supply and demand.

The kingdom will “coordinate with fellow oil producers to ensure adequate supplies are available to consumers while ensuring the global oil market does not go out of balance,” Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday.

“In the next few weeks, the Kingdom will be consulting closely with other producing countries and key oil consuming nations to ensure a well-balanced and stable oil market, for the benefits of producers and consumers as well as the stability of the world economy,” Falih said in a statement.

Following Washington’s official announcement, Trump tweeted that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members will “more than make up” for any drop in Iranian supplies.

Three of the countries that received the exemptions — Greece, Italy and Taiwan — have already cut their imports from Iran to zero. However, analysts widely expected the Trump administration to extend the waivers to China, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey, all of which took advantage of the waivers during the first six-month window that began in November.

Companies in those countries now face the threat of being locked out of the U.S. financial system if they continue to import crude from Iran. The question is whether some of those countries will seek to skirt the sanctions, including by facilitating or encouraging purchases of Iranian crude through companies not tied to the U.S. financial system.

China’s Foreign Ministry on Monday denounced Washington’s Iran policy.

“China opposes the unilateral sanctions and so-called ‘long-arm jurisdictions’ imposed by the US. Our cooperation with Iran is open, transparent, lawful and legitimate, thus it should be respected,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang told reporters.

“Our government is committed to upholding the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies and will play a positive and constructive role in upholding the stability of global energy market.”

Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlut Cavusoglu also rejected the sanctions, saying they “will not serve regional peace and stability” and would hurt the Iranian people.

Dialing up pressure on Iran threatens to spark maritime conflict in the Persian Gulf. Iran has long threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s busiest transit lane for seaborne oil shipments, if it is prevented from exporting oil.

On Monday, Iranian officials renewed those threats.

“According to international law, the Strait of Hormuz is a marine passageway and if we are barred from using it, we will shut it down. In case of any threat, we will have not even an iota of doubt to protect and defend the Iranian waters,” Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps’ Navy, told the al-Alam news channel, according to Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization, marking the first time the U.S. has applied the designation to a foreign country’s military.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-22  Authors: tom dichristopher, mary catherine wellons
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, exports, ending, trump, market, zero, stability, saudi, countries, sanctions, drive, waivers, oil, foreign, iran, aims, irans, iranian


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Oil surges as US ends Iran sanction waivers—four experts forecast what’s next

Crude prices surged after the announcement, with the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate crude, gaining nearly 3 percent. So I think that’s one potential silver lining of higher oil. And so my guess is that economic activity stays where it is [and] oil prices will remain relatively constant. That’s going to couple with what we’ve been seeing in Venezuela, this likely forcing the oil price up [like] we’ve seen this morning. RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, wa


Crude prices surged after the announcement, with the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate crude, gaining nearly 3 percent. So I think that’s one potential silver lining of higher oil. And so my guess is that economic activity stays where it is [and] oil prices will remain relatively constant. That’s going to couple with what we’ve been seeing in Venezuela, this likely forcing the oil price up [like] we’ve seen this morning. RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, wa
Oil surges as US ends Iran sanction waivers—four experts forecast what’s next Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-22  Authors: lizzy gurdus, eddie seal, bloomberg, getty images, johannes eisele, afp, anna moneymaker, kcna, thomas barwick getty images, source
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Oil surges as US ends Iran sanction waivers—four experts forecast what's next

Things are heating up in the energy market.

The Trump administration announced Monday that it would end exemptions to its sanctions on Iran, a move meant to significantly curb Iran’s oil output. Crude prices surged after the announcement, with the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate crude, gaining nearly 3 percent.

Here’s what experts say higher oil prices could mean for the broader market:

Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said a significant uptick in the price of crude would likely be a double-edged sword:

“[Higher] oil is actually good for corporate profits because the S&P [500] is levered to oil, so I think this could be a source of positive earnings surprise[s] for the year where analysts are penciling in super low expectations. So I think that’s one potential silver lining of higher oil. And then … consumers are making more money, so we might not feel that energy pinch until we get to higher levels. But $5 a gallon in California is not a good environment to be in, so we’re getting to a point where this could turn ugly.”

Aperture Investors CEO Peter Kraus didn’t anticipate major changes to the status quo:

“I think the oil prices are going to continue to reflect this sort of restriction in supply. And we’re not going to see a lot of new drilling based on these prices. We’re not going to see more holes being punched into the world to create more oil at these current prices. And so my guess is that economic activity stays where it is [and] oil prices will remain relatively constant. […] People predicted oil was going to go to $100, $120 a barrel, which I don’t see happening.”

Alex Dryden, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan, said macroeconomic global risks could catch up to the oil market itself:

“I think what you’re looking at is incoming restrictions on supply. That’s going to couple with what we’ve been seeing in Venezuela, this likely forcing the oil price up [like] we’ve seen this morning. Now, again, it’s about how sustainable that oil price is. You look at … the futures market. Go three years out — you typically go out that far when you want to take out political risk and look at how much geopolitical risk premium [is] priced into oil. Right now, it’s some of the highest levels since the Arab Spring. That’s not exactly a great backdrop for energy companies to really be able to continue to put that oil number in in a reliable way going forward. So, certainly some question marks over it.”

RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, was fairly bullish on the prospect of higher oil prices for the broader market:


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-22  Authors: lizzy gurdus, eddie seal, bloomberg, getty images, johannes eisele, afp, anna moneymaker, kcna, thomas barwick getty images, source
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ConocoPhillips exits UK oil and gas production in huge $2.7 billion North Sea sale

ConocoPhillips on Thursday announced it has struck an agreement to sell its UK oil and gas operations for nearly $2.7 billion, setting up its exit from the North Sea. It will also continue to operate the terminal, which receives oil and gas from the North Sea fields. Earlier this year, Conoco Chief Operating Officer Matthew Fox said the company’s major portfolio restructuring was essentially complete, with the exception of the North Sea sale. The deal makes Chrysaor one of the largest producers


ConocoPhillips on Thursday announced it has struck an agreement to sell its UK oil and gas operations for nearly $2.7 billion, setting up its exit from the North Sea. It will also continue to operate the terminal, which receives oil and gas from the North Sea fields. Earlier this year, Conoco Chief Operating Officer Matthew Fox said the company’s major portfolio restructuring was essentially complete, with the exception of the North Sea sale. The deal makes Chrysaor one of the largest producers
ConocoPhillips exits UK oil and gas production in huge $2.7 billion North Sea sale Cached Page below :
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Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, chrysaor, oil, uk, gas, company, transaction, sea, conocophillips, sale, exits, north, production, huge


ConocoPhillips exits UK oil and gas production in huge $2.7 billion North Sea sale

ConocoPhillips on Thursday announced it has struck an agreement to sell its UK oil and gas operations for nearly $2.7 billion, setting up its exit from the North Sea.

The Houston-based driller will sell its ConocoPhillips United Kingdom subsidiaries for $2.675 billion to Chrysaor E&P, a company focused on producing oil and natural gas from the North Sea. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2019.

The deal is the largest transaction in the exploration and production space outside the U.S. this year, according to investment bank Jefferies, which acted as Chrysaor’s financial adviser.

Shares of ConocoPhillips were slightly higher in morning trading.

ConocoPhillips has been marketing the assets for several months. The company will retain its commercial trading business in London and its roughly 40% interest in the Teesside oil terminal. It will also continue to operate the terminal, which receives oil and gas from the North Sea fields.

“We are extremely proud of the legacy we’ve built in the U.K. over the last 50 years and are pleased that Chrysaor recognizes the value of this business,” ConocoPhillips Chairman and CEO Ryan Lance said in a statement. “This disposition is part of our ongoing effort to hone our portfolio and focus our investments across future low cost of supply opportunities.”

Earlier this year, Conoco Chief Operating Officer Matthew Fox said the company’s major portfolio restructuring was essentially complete, with the exception of the North Sea sale. The company earned nearly $1.1 billion on dispositions in 2018.

The deal makes Chrysaor one of the largest producers in the UK North Sea.

Chrysaor will pick up offshore assets that produced about 72,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. That increases its pro forma 2018 output to about 177,000 boepd of oil and gas. The company will take control of two major offshore production hubs, Britannia and J‐Block, and ConocoPhillips’ stake in the Clair Field area.

“This significant acquisition reflects our continuing belief that the UK North Sea has material future potential for oil and gas production,” Chrysaor CEO and former Hess executive Phil Kirk said in a statement.

The transaction continues a trend of major oil companies exiting the North Sea and placing the region in the hands of private equity-backed independent drillers.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-18  Authors: tom dichristopher, source
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, chrysaor, oil, uk, gas, company, transaction, sea, conocophillips, sale, exits, north, production, huge


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Here are the top risk events facing global oil markets

As global supply stocks lessen, oil industry experts are agreed that the crude market is becoming ever more sensitive to a sudden or unexpected disruption. However there appears to be little agreement on what the current biggest risk actually is. That means a global oversupply of crude is draining, bringing supply and demand into balance and putting the market at risk of flipping into shortage. Energy analysts tend to agree that intensifying risk indicators in the oil market is a cause for conce


As global supply stocks lessen, oil industry experts are agreed that the crude market is becoming ever more sensitive to a sudden or unexpected disruption. However there appears to be little agreement on what the current biggest risk actually is. That means a global oversupply of crude is draining, bringing supply and demand into balance and putting the market at risk of flipping into shortage. Energy analysts tend to agree that intensifying risk indicators in the oil market is a cause for conce
Here are the top risk events facing global oil markets Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-18  Authors: sam meredith, ali mohammadi bloomberg via getty images, abdullah doma, afp, getty images, oleg nikishin
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, oil, analysts, supply, crude, markets, yearthe, global, risk, west, start, events, market, facing


Here are the top risk events facing global oil markets

As global supply stocks lessen, oil industry experts are agreed that the crude market is becoming ever more sensitive to a sudden or unexpected disruption. However there appears to be little agreement on what the current biggest risk actually is.

Oil prices have soared since the start of the year, supported by ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts, escalating fighting in Libya and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

International benchmark Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude have risen by approximately 30% and 40% respectively since the start of the year.

The primary reason for the run-up is simple: The market is tightening. That means a global oversupply of crude is draining, bringing supply and demand into balance and putting the market at risk of flipping into shortage.

Energy analysts tend to agree that intensifying risk indicators in the oil market is a cause for concern. CNBC rounds up what oil traders and analysts view as potentially the most disruptive event.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-18  Authors: sam meredith, ali mohammadi bloomberg via getty images, abdullah doma, afp, getty images, oleg nikishin
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, oil, analysts, supply, crude, markets, yearthe, global, risk, west, start, events, market, facing


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After Chevron’s biggest sell-off in a year, market watcher sees opportunity

The major oil company tumbled 5% on Friday in its biggest one-day drop since February 2018 after announcing a $33 billion deal to buy Anadarko Petroleum. While Chevron dropped on the deal, Joule Financial founder Quint Tatro sees opportunity in its weakness. “Even though the group as a whole seems to be getting a boost, obviously Chevron, the buyer, is not,” Tatro said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray, is more conservative on the energ


The major oil company tumbled 5% on Friday in its biggest one-day drop since February 2018 after announcing a $33 billion deal to buy Anadarko Petroleum. While Chevron dropped on the deal, Joule Financial founder Quint Tatro sees opportunity in its weakness. “Even though the group as a whole seems to be getting a boost, obviously Chevron, the buyer, is not,” Tatro said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray, is more conservative on the energ
After Chevron’s biggest sell-off in a year, market watcher sees opportunity Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-12  Authors: keris lahiff, daniel acker, bloomberg, getty images, vcg, bryan r smith, afp, kcna, thomas barwick getty images, source
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, chevron, petroleum, tatro, market, selloff, chevrons, biggest, names, watcher, sees, xle, obviously, energy, trading, opportunity, oil, youve


After Chevron's biggest sell-off in a year, market watcher sees opportunity

Chevron is starting the week fresh on the heels of its worst day in more than a year.

The major oil company tumbled 5% on Friday in its biggest one-day drop since February 2018 after announcing a $33 billion deal to buy Anadarko Petroleum. Occidental Petroleum also reportedly is interested in the oil and gas exploration company.

While Chevron dropped on the deal, Joule Financial founder Quint Tatro sees opportunity in its weakness.

“Even though the group as a whole seems to be getting a boost, obviously Chevron, the buyer, is not,” Tatro said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “You’ve got to look at a name like this that is trading 14 to 15 times forward earnings. … Obviously they’re spending $30 billion to try to grow that profit, so we like the acquisition.”

Chevron is expected to post a 2019 earnings contraction of 14 percent, followed by a 23 percent surge in 2020, according to FactSet.

“We need to do a lot more work really into the fundamentals to see how this will be accretive to the bottom line,” said Tatro. “Basically it expands their shale play, their deep-water drilling, so it’s hard to do but ultimately I think this is a day where you’ve got to hold your nose and you go in and you add to your Chevron position.”

Tatro also likes Chevron for its strong balance sheet and steady dividend. The company yields 4%, double the S&P 500.

Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray, is more conservative on the energy group as a whole.

The XLE energy ETF “still is at a point where we need to get above about $68. That’s where your 200-day moving average is at, which is declining,” Johnson said Friday on “Trading Nation.” “There’s still a long way to go. Again, I like energy, but I’m more of a neutral to these names. Is the M&A activity going to put a little bit of a bid under these names? It probably will, but I’d rather be a selective buyer of these names, especially the XLE.”

The XLE ETF has not traded above its 200-day moving average since October. It has fallen 7% since then.

Disclosure: Joule Financial holds CVX.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-12  Authors: keris lahiff, daniel acker, bloomberg, getty images, vcg, bryan r smith, afp, kcna, thomas barwick getty images, source
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, chevron, petroleum, tatro, market, selloff, chevrons, biggest, names, watcher, sees, xle, obviously, energy, trading, opportunity, oil, youve


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A ‘forecasting nightmare’: Volatile oil prices are virtually impossible to predict, analysts say

A flurry of intensifying risks in the energy market has made it “virtually impossible” to confidently forecast the price of oil, industry experts told CNBC on Thursday. But, alongside mounting concerns about the health of the global economy, surging U.S. crude inventories appears to have capped further gains. “There are economic and geopolitical developments to deal with and these can change almost on a daily basis,” Varga said. He described oil market conditions at present as a “forecasting nig


A flurry of intensifying risks in the energy market has made it “virtually impossible” to confidently forecast the price of oil, industry experts told CNBC on Thursday. But, alongside mounting concerns about the health of the global economy, surging U.S. crude inventories appears to have capped further gains. “There are economic and geopolitical developments to deal with and these can change almost on a daily basis,” Varga said. He described oil market conditions at present as a “forecasting nig
A ‘forecasting nightmare’: Volatile oil prices are virtually impossible to predict, analysts say Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-11  Authors: sam meredith, daniel acker, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wti, oil, forecasting, say, impossible, predict, virtually, market, start, varga, developments, nightmare, volatile, analysts, prices, west, crude


A 'forecasting nightmare': Volatile oil prices are virtually impossible to predict, analysts say

A flurry of intensifying risks in the energy market has made it “virtually impossible” to confidently forecast the price of oil, industry experts told CNBC on Thursday.

Oil prices have soared since the start of the year, due to a number of risk factors such as OPEC-led supply cuts, U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela and escalating fighting in Libya.

But, alongside mounting concerns about the health of the global economy, surging U.S. crude inventories appears to have capped further gains.

“There are so many uncertainties surrounding the oil market that it makes it virtually impossible to predict developments for the rest of the week let alone for months or a year ahead,” Tamas Varga, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note published Thursday.

“There are economic and geopolitical developments to deal with and these can change almost on a daily basis,” Varga said. He described oil market conditions at present as a “forecasting nightmare.”

International benchmark Brent crude traded at around $71.15 Thursday afternoon, down 0.8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $64.05, around 0.9% lower.

Brent and WTI crude futures have risen by approximately 30% and 40% respectively since the start of the year.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-11  Authors: sam meredith, daniel acker, bloomberg, getty images
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Prepare for $80 oil this summer as ‘wounded bulls’ rise, RBC warns

International oil prices will average $75 a barrel in 2019, and consumers may find themselves contending with bouts of $80 crude this summer, RBC Capital Markets said. The global investment bank revised its oil price forecast higher Thursday, pointing to a cocktail of market conditions. The bank also boosted its outlook for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude from $61.30 per barrel to $67 for 2019. The long-to-short ratio reached 13 times “at the peak of the oil price euphoria last fall” and aver


International oil prices will average $75 a barrel in 2019, and consumers may find themselves contending with bouts of $80 crude this summer, RBC Capital Markets said. The global investment bank revised its oil price forecast higher Thursday, pointing to a cocktail of market conditions. The bank also boosted its outlook for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude from $61.30 per barrel to $67 for 2019. The long-to-short ratio reached 13 times “at the peak of the oil price euphoria last fall” and aver
Prepare for $80 oil this summer as ‘wounded bulls’ rise, RBC warns Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-11  Authors: tom dichristopher, juan pelegrin, moment, getty images
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Prepare for $80 oil this summer as 'wounded bulls' rise, RBC warns

International oil prices will average $75 a barrel in 2019, and consumers may find themselves contending with bouts of $80 crude this summer, RBC Capital Markets said.

The global investment bank revised its oil price forecast higher Thursday, pointing to a cocktail of market conditions. Those include steep OPEC supply cuts, robust demand, geopolitical risk and investor positioning that leaves crude futures with plenty of room to run.

RBC’s $75 call for international Brent crude is up from a previous 2019 forecast of $69.50 per barrel. The bank also boosted its outlook for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude from $61.30 per barrel to $67 for 2019.

“We see price risk asymmetrically skewed to the upside spurred by geopolitically infused rallies that could shoot prices toward or even beyond our high-end, bull-case scenario and test the $80/bbl mark for intermittent periods this summer,” RBC strategists Michael Tran, Helima Croft and Christopher Louney said in a research note.

Brent hit $71.78 and WTI rose to $64.79 this week, the highest levels since early November.

While Brent and WTI have rallied 32% and 40.5%, respectively, this year, the oil trade is not as crowded as it was last year. There are currently about 4.5 times as many long positions in crude futures — bets that oil will rise — as there are short positions, or wagers that the commodity price will fall.

The long-to-short ratio reached 13 times “at the peak of the oil price euphoria last fall” and averaged 8.5 times in 2018, RBC notes.

“In short, there is room to run to the upside given that geopolitical hotspots are still a clear and present danger for the market, but many wounded bulls remain following the Q4’18 washout,” the analysts said, referring to the collapse in oil prices at the end of last year.

RBC expects the 14-nation OPEC producer group to extend its deal to cap output and boost oil prices, keeping the cost of crude near the $75-$80 range many nations need to balance their budgets.

The bank sees signs of strong demand in the Atlantic Basin, where bellwether barrels from the North Sea and West Africa are finding buyers.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-11  Authors: tom dichristopher, juan pelegrin, moment, getty images
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Trump wants to drive Iran’s crude exports to zero. The oil market is not cooperating

“When you have a better supplied oil market, it allows us to accelerate our path to zero,” U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook said at CERAWeek by IHS Markit in Houston. Since then, the cost of U.S. crude oil has jumped 12%, international Brent crude is trading above $70 a barrel, and the national average gasoline price is up 30 cents a gallon. “Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. That tightening will make it more difficult for Trump to justify significa


“When you have a better supplied oil market, it allows us to accelerate our path to zero,” U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook said at CERAWeek by IHS Markit in Houston. Since then, the cost of U.S. crude oil has jumped 12%, international Brent crude is trading above $70 a barrel, and the national average gasoline price is up 30 cents a gallon. “Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. That tightening will make it more difficult for Trump to justify significa
Trump wants to drive Iran’s crude exports to zero. The oil market is not cooperating Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-11  Authors: tom dichristopher, carlos barria
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, oil, iran, drive, trump, supply, exports, tightening, energy, zero, irans, crude, market, cooperating, waivers, wants


Trump wants to drive Iran's crude exports to zero. The oil market is not cooperating

Just one month ago, President Donald Trump’s top envoy for Iran told a major energy conference that oil market conditions are making it easier to choke off the Islamic Republic’s crude exports without causing a price spike.

“When you have a better supplied oil market, it allows us to accelerate our path to zero,” U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook said at CERAWeek by IHS Markit in Houston.

Since then, the cost of U.S. crude oil has jumped 12%, international Brent crude is trading above $70 a barrel, and the national average gasoline price is up 30 cents a gallon.

The primary reason for the run-up is simple: The market is tightening. That means a global oversupply of crude is draining, bringing supply and demand into balance and putting the market at risk of flipping into shortage.

On Thursday, the International Energy Agency said global oil supplies are tightening in the second quarter as OPEC and its allies slash production and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela look increasingly effective.

“Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too,” said IEA, a Paris-based energy policy adviser.

That tightening will make it more difficult for Trump to justify significantly curtailing Iran’s crude shipments next month. In just a few weeks, the president must decide whether to extend waivers that allow several countries to import oil from Iran, which is under wide-ranging U.S. economic sanctions.

To be sure, analysts doubt Trump will refuse to extend the waivers, despite administration officials repeatedly invoking the administration’s goal of driving Iran’s oil exports to zero.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-11  Authors: tom dichristopher, carlos barria
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, oil, iran, drive, trump, supply, exports, tightening, energy, zero, irans, crude, market, cooperating, waivers, wants


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Oil markets may have to brace for ‘greater disruption,’ says strategist

There’s ‘potential for greater disruption’ in the oil markets: Strategist 8 Hours Ago | 03:04As oil prices climbed to multi-month highs on Tuesday, one strategist warned of the “potential for greater disruption” ahead for crude markets. If … Libya comes into play, that’s only going to add more tightness to the market,” John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday. Driscoll’s comments came amid a recent violent resurgence in Libya, a key oil produc


There’s ‘potential for greater disruption’ in the oil markets: Strategist 8 Hours Ago | 03:04As oil prices climbed to multi-month highs on Tuesday, one strategist warned of the “potential for greater disruption” ahead for crude markets. If … Libya comes into play, that’s only going to add more tightness to the market,” John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday. Driscoll’s comments came amid a recent violent resurgence in Libya, a key oil produc
Oil markets may have to brace for ‘greater disruption,’ says strategist Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-09  Authors: eustance huang
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, oil, greater, brace, leader, venezuela, libyas, disruption, potential, libya, driscoll, risks, strategist, markets


Oil markets may have to brace for 'greater disruption,' says strategist

There’s ‘potential for greater disruption’ in the oil markets: Strategist 8 Hours Ago | 03:04

As oil prices climbed to multi-month highs on Tuesday, one strategist warned of the “potential for greater disruption” ahead for crude markets.

“It’s almost like 2011, when (former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi) was toppled. If … Libya comes into play, that’s only going to add more tightness to the market,” John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday.

Driscoll’s comments came amid a recent violent resurgence in Libya, a key oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Rebel forces loyal to renegade leader General Khalifa Hifter, who effectively controls the country’s breakaway east, launched a surprise attack against the home of Libya’s UN-recognized government last week. The move risks plunging the country back into civil war.

Reports also surfaced overnight that the airport in Libya’s capital, Tripoli, had been hit by air strikes.

In addition to concerns over the ongoing conflict in Libya, Driscoll cited Venezuela and Iran as other potential sources of risks for the oil markets.

For Venezuela, he said: “Things are terrible there, oil output is plummeting, then you’ve got this wave of electrical outages that have halved their exports.”

In January, the U.S. slapped sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA in an attempt to oust President Nicolas Maduro as he jostles for power with opposition leader Juan Guaido.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-09  Authors: eustance huang
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, oil, greater, brace, leader, venezuela, libyas, disruption, potential, libya, driscoll, risks, strategist, markets


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