It’s possible the US economy is not ‘late cycle’ but rather just recharging

The idea that we are late in the economic and financial-market cycle is one that even most Wall Street bulls won’t dispute. Huge parts of the economy have run out of sync, at separate speeds. What about the yield curve? Whatever the answers, Jason Hunter, technical strategist at JP Morgan, notes that stocks have tended to have some of their strongest runs after an inversion, late in a cycle. “The longer-term bull cycles persisted for nearly two years after the initial [Treasury] curve inversion


The idea that we are late in the economic and financial-market cycle is one that even most Wall Street bulls won’t dispute.
Huge parts of the economy have run out of sync, at separate speeds.
What about the yield curve?
Whatever the answers, Jason Hunter, technical strategist at JP Morgan, notes that stocks have tended to have some of their strongest runs after an inversion, late in a cycle.
“The longer-term bull cycles persisted for nearly two years after the initial [Treasury] curve inversion
It’s possible the US economy is not ‘late cycle’ but rather just recharging Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: michael santoli
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, curve, economy, late, fed, cycles, cycle, past, levels, recharging, inversion, possible, yield, treasury


It's possible the US economy is not 'late cycle' but rather just recharging

(This story is part of the Weekend Brief edition of the Evening Brief newsletter. To sign up for CNBC’s Evening Brief, click here.) The idea that we are late in the economic and financial-market cycle is one that even most Wall Street bulls won’t dispute. After all, when the economic expansion surpasses a decade to become the longest ever and the S&P 500 has delivered a compounded return of nearly 18% a year since March 2009, how can the cycle not be considered pretty mature? Yet it’s not quite that simple. Huge parts of the economy have run out of sync, at separate speeds. Some indicators have a decidedly “good as it gets” look, others retain a mid-cycle profile — and a few even resemble early parts of a recovery than the end. Friday’s unexpectedly strong November job gain above 200,000 reflects this debate, suggesting we are not at “full employment” even this deep into an expansion. And the market itself has stalled and retrenched several times along the way, keeping risk appetites tethered and purging or preventing excesses. In the “late-cycle” category we find several broad, trending data readings: Unemployment rate and jobless claims at a 50-year low; consumer confidence hit a cycle peak and has flattened out; and the broad index of leading economic indicators has slipped from very high levels. Auto sales peaked a few years ago. Corporate debt levels are near extremes, profit margins have retreated from historic highs and equity valuations are certainly full and in line with the latter phases of prior bull markets. But corporate-credit conditions are sturdy, and households have simply not loaded up on debt this cycle, in a long period of enforced and then voluntary sobriety after the massive credit boom and bust that culminated in 2008. This leaves consumers in good shape. And the housing market, a drag on growth for years after the crash, has now perked up and is feeding off supply-demand dynamics that are more typical of an early-cycle environment.

What about the yield curve?

The summertime inversion of the Treasury yield curve — in which longer-term bond yields slip below short-term rates after the Federal Reserve has been tightening policy for a while — crystallized the debate on the cycle’s effective age. Such an inversion, in the past, has started the countdown to a recession — but sometimes with a lag as long as two years. This indicator has been translated into a recession-probability gauge one year ahead by the New York Fed. Source: New York Fed It has turned lower since late summer as the yield curve has returned to its “normal” shape, but only in the 1960s has it ever climbed above 30% and fallen back to tame levels well ahead of any recession. Have there even been enough cycles for this pattern to qualify as a statistically reliable “rule?” Do the extremely low absolute level of rates now (similar to the ’60s) change the interpretation? Was the inversion too shallow and short-lived to serve as a proper signal? Whatever the answers, Jason Hunter, technical strategist at JP Morgan, notes that stocks have tended to have some of their strongest runs after an inversion, late in a cycle. “The longer-term bull cycles persisted for nearly two years after the initial [Treasury] curve inversion during the past three business cycles, with the majority of the late-cycle rally acceleration phases unfolding within the year after curve inversion.” The S&P on average has gained more than 20% over less than two years in the past four episodes before peaking. One way to view the summer tumult is as the third severe “growth scare” of this expansion, following those of 2011-12 and 2015-16. Both brought with them nasty 15-20% equity downturns, new lows in Treasury yields and forced central banks to become more accommodative. The Fed has referred to its shift from rate-hiking last year to three cuts this year as a “mid-cycle adjustment,” which would leave it on hold for now and summons happy memories of prior such Fed-enabled “soft landings.”

‘Still upside’ for stocks


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-07  Authors: michael santoli
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, curve, economy, late, fed, cycles, cycle, past, levels, recharging, inversion, possible, yield, treasury


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Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, takes a bigger role in China trade talks

President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has added another role to his long list of White House duties — U.S.-China trade negotiator — as Washington and Beijing try to reach an initial agreement to avoid new U.S. tariffs on Dec. 15. People familiar with the talks said Kushner, who helped bring the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) to fruition, has increased his direct involvement in the negotiations with China over the past two weeks. A White House official confirmed Kushner’s


President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has added another role to his long list of White House duties — U.S.-China trade negotiator — as Washington and Beijing try to reach an initial agreement to avoid new U.S. tariffs on Dec. 15.
People familiar with the talks said Kushner, who helped bring the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) to fruition, has increased his direct involvement in the negotiations with China over the past two weeks.
A White House official confirmed Kushner’s
Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, takes a bigger role in China trade talks Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-04
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, bigger, trade, soninlaw, takes, trump, china, house, secretary, agreement, chinese, talks, role, trumps, past, kushner, white, negotiations, jared


Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, takes a bigger role in China trade talks

Senior Advisor Jared Kushner listens while US President Donald Trump announces an agreement with Guatemala regarding people seeking asylum in the Oval Office of the White House on July 26, 2019 in Washington, DC.

President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has added another role to his long list of White House duties — U.S.-China trade negotiator — as Washington and Beijing try to reach an initial agreement to avoid new U.S. tariffs on Dec. 15.

People familiar with the talks said Kushner, who helped bring the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) to fruition, has increased his direct involvement in the negotiations with China over the past two weeks.

While the talks have made some progress, these people said the two sides have not yet agreed on the extent to which the United States will remove existing tariffs on Chinese goods and on specific commitments by China to increase purchases of U.S. agriculture products.

A White House official confirmed Kushner’s involvement but declined to provide specific details on the influence he has had on the negotiations. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the official said Kushner has recently met with Cui Tiankai, the Chinese ambassador to the United States.

The two have met multiple times since Trump took office, establishing a kind of back-channel relationship, trade experts say.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have been leading negotiations with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He for the past two years over a range of U.S. complaints about China’s trade and subsidy practices, including the forced transfer of American technology to Chinese firms.

“Jared has been engaged in the process from the beginning in full coordination and in support of Ambassador Lighthizer’s and Secretary Mnuchin’s efforts,” the White House official said.

Kushner played a pivotal role in the later stages of U.S. trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico in 2018 to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement, helping to resolve final differences. Lighthizer said the USMCA deal “would not have happened if it wasn’t for Jared.”

Former Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray, with whom Kushner met frequently, said Kushner patched up the negotiations more than once after they fell apart.

Kushner, who is married to Trump’s daughter Ivanka, has taken on many challenges during the past three years, including trying to develop a Middle East peace plan, working on changes to U.S. immigration policies and advising Trump on dealing with opioid addiction and problems with Department of Veterans Affairs.

But sealing a deal with China could prove daunting. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, speaking to Reuters on Tuesday, rejected any deadlines for a deal and launched a fresh attack on Chinese telecom equipment giant Huawei, accusing it of telling suppliers to move operations overseas to skirt U.S. sanctions.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-04
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, bigger, trade, soninlaw, takes, trump, china, house, secretary, agreement, chinese, talks, role, trumps, past, kushner, white, negotiations, jared


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Past decade is ‘almost certain’ to be warmest on record, UN agency says

The past decade is set to be the warmest on record, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Tuesday. Overall, the report, which was released during the COP25 climate summit in Madrid, paints a stark picture. Globally averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hit 407.8 parts per million last year, a record, and are set to increase this year. The WMO’s report comes after the UN secretary general warned that “the point of no-return is no longer over the horizon.” Informat


The past decade is set to be the warmest on record, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Tuesday.
Overall, the report, which was released during the COP25 climate summit in Madrid, paints a stark picture.
Globally averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hit 407.8 parts per million last year, a record, and are set to increase this year.
The WMO’s report comes after the UN secretary general warned that “the point of no-return is no longer over the horizon.”
Informat
Past decade is ‘almost certain’ to be warmest on record, UN agency says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-03  Authors: anmar frangoul
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, warmest, world, degrees, report, global, decade, wmos, watch, certain, climate, temperature, agency, past, record, paris


Past decade is 'almost certain' to be warmest on record, UN agency says

The past decade is set to be the warmest on record, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Tuesday.

According to its “Provisional Statement of the State of the Climate 2019,” this year is “on course” to be the second or third warmest on record, with the global average temperature around 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial era.

Overall, the report, which was released during the COP25 climate summit in Madrid, paints a stark picture.

Ocean heat is found to be at record levels, while sea water is now 26% more acidic than it was at the beginning of the industrial period, according to the WMO.

Globally averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hit 407.8 parts per million last year, a record, and are set to increase this year.

When it comes to sea level rise, this has sped up since satellite measurements began in 1993, the report states, due to ice sheets melting in Greenland and Antarctica.

“If we do not take urgent climate action now, then we are heading for a temperature increase of more than 3°C by the end of the century, with ever more harmful impacts on human wellbeing,” Petteri Taalas, the WMO’s secretary-general, said in a statement. “We are nowhere near on track to meet the Paris Agreement target,” Taalas added.

The Paris Agreement was reached at COP21 in 2015. As well as a commitment to make sure global warming stayed “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, world leaders at Paris also agreed to “pursue efforts” to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The WMO’s report comes after the UN secretary general warned that “the point of no-return is no longer over the horizon.”

In remarks delivered Sunday, Antonio Guterres emphasized that his message was “one of hope, not of despair” but sought to highlight the urgency of the problems faced by the planet.

“We simply have to stop digging and drilling and take advantage of the vast possibilities offered by renewable energy and nature-based solutions,” he said.

“In the crucial 12 months ahead, it is essential that we secure more ambitious national commitments — particularly from the main emitters — to immediately start reducing greenhouse gas emissions at a pace consistent to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050,” he went on to state.

Information used in the WMO’s report is sourced from a wide range of sources and organizations, including regional climate centers, national meteorological and hydrological services, the World Climate Research Programme, the Global Atmosphere Watch and Global Cryosphere Watch. It also uses information from other United Nations agencies.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-03  Authors: anmar frangoul
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, warmest, world, degrees, report, global, decade, wmos, watch, certain, climate, temperature, agency, past, record, paris


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Morgan Stanley downgrades Roku, one of the hottest stocks of 2019: ‘It’s all priced in’

A video sign displays the logo for Roku, after the company’s IPO at the Nasdaq Market in New York, September 28, 2017. Morgan Stanley lowered its rating on Roku to underweight from equal weight, saying the stock’s phenomenal climb this year fully reflects the company’s growth prospects and fails to recognize some key risks. “Roku shares are up over 400% YTD due to rising estimates and overall exuberance over all things streaming. Roku’s valuation levels have surged past digital media players and


A video sign displays the logo for Roku, after the company’s IPO at the Nasdaq Market in New York, September 28, 2017.
Morgan Stanley lowered its rating on Roku to underweight from equal weight, saying the stock’s phenomenal climb this year fully reflects the company’s growth prospects and fails to recognize some key risks.
“Roku shares are up over 400% YTD due to rising estimates and overall exuberance over all things streaming.
Roku’s valuation levels have surged past digital media players and
Morgan Stanley downgrades Roku, one of the hottest stocks of 2019: ‘It’s all priced in’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: michael sheetz
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stocks, note, companys, video, past, priced, 2019, york, weight, morgan, valuation, downgrades, hottest, stanley, roku, ytd


Morgan Stanley downgrades Roku, one of the hottest stocks of 2019: 'It's all priced in'

A video sign displays the logo for Roku, after the company’s IPO at the Nasdaq Market in New York, September 28, 2017.

Morgan Stanley lowered its rating on Roku to underweight from equal weight, saying the stock’s phenomenal climb this year fully reflects the company’s growth prospects and fails to recognize some key risks.

Roku’s stock fell more than 16% in trading on Monday.

“Roku shares are up over 400% YTD due to rising estimates and overall exuberance over all things streaming. As a result, we see the risk/reward skewed to the downside. Roku’s valuation levels have surged past digital media players and even past high-growth SAAS [software as a service] companies … despite structurally lower gross margins,” Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne said in a note to investors. The note was titled, “It’s all priced in.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: michael sheetz
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stocks, note, companys, video, past, priced, 2019, york, weight, morgan, valuation, downgrades, hottest, stanley, roku, ytd


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Morgan Stanley downgrades Roku, one of the hottest stocks of 2019: ‘It’s all priced in’

A video sign displays the logo for Roku, after the company’s IPO at the Nasdaq Market in New York, September 28, 2017. Morgan Stanley lowered its rating on Roku to underweight from equal weight, saying the stock’s phenomenal climb this year fully reflects the company’s growth prospects and fails to recognize some key risks. “Roku shares are up over 400% YTD due to rising estimates and overall exuberance over all things streaming. Roku’s valuation levels have surged past digital media players and


A video sign displays the logo for Roku, after the company’s IPO at the Nasdaq Market in New York, September 28, 2017.
Morgan Stanley lowered its rating on Roku to underweight from equal weight, saying the stock’s phenomenal climb this year fully reflects the company’s growth prospects and fails to recognize some key risks.
“Roku shares are up over 400% YTD due to rising estimates and overall exuberance over all things streaming.
Roku’s valuation levels have surged past digital media players and
Morgan Stanley downgrades Roku, one of the hottest stocks of 2019: ‘It’s all priced in’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: michael sheetz
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stocks, note, companys, video, past, priced, 2019, york, weight, morgan, valuation, downgrades, hottest, stanley, roku, ytd


Morgan Stanley downgrades Roku, one of the hottest stocks of 2019: 'It's all priced in'

A video sign displays the logo for Roku, after the company’s IPO at the Nasdaq Market in New York, September 28, 2017.

Morgan Stanley lowered its rating on Roku to underweight from equal weight, saying the stock’s phenomenal climb this year fully reflects the company’s growth prospects and fails to recognize some key risks.

Roku’s stock fell more than 16% in trading on Monday.

“Roku shares are up over 400% YTD due to rising estimates and overall exuberance over all things streaming. As a result, we see the risk/reward skewed to the downside. Roku’s valuation levels have surged past digital media players and even past high-growth SAAS [software as a service] companies … despite structurally lower gross margins,” Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne said in a note to investors. The note was titled, “It’s all priced in.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-02  Authors: michael sheetz
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stocks, note, companys, video, past, priced, 2019, york, weight, morgan, valuation, downgrades, hottest, stanley, roku, ytd


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The current bond yield stagnation mirrors late-1800s ‘long depression,’ economist suggests

The current “secular stagnation” for bond yields offers close parallels to the long depression of the late 1800s, according to TS Lombard Managing Director of Global Macro Dario Perkins. The past year has seen multiple inversions of the U.S. two-year/10-year Treasury yield curve and record low bond yields, which move inversely to price, across Europe and beyond. An inverted yield curve marks a point on a chart where short-term investments in U.S. Treasury bonds pay more than long-term ones, and


The current “secular stagnation” for bond yields offers close parallels to the long depression of the late 1800s, according to TS Lombard Managing Director of Global Macro Dario Perkins.
The past year has seen multiple inversions of the U.S. two-year/10-year Treasury yield curve and record low bond yields, which move inversely to price, across Europe and beyond.
An inverted yield curve marks a point on a chart where short-term investments in U.S. Treasury bonds pay more than long-term ones, and
The current bond yield stagnation mirrors late-1800s ‘long depression,’ economist suggests Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-29  Authors: elliot smith
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, yield, stagnation, suggests, past, long, economist, treasury, global, current, curve, yields, mirrors, late1800s, secular, bond, lombard, depression


The current bond yield stagnation mirrors late-1800s 'long depression,' economist suggests

The current “secular stagnation” for bond yields offers close parallels to the long depression of the late 1800s, according to TS Lombard Managing Director of Global Macro Dario Perkins.

The past year has seen multiple inversions of the U.S. two-year/10-year Treasury yield curve and record low bond yields, which move inversely to price, across Europe and beyond.

An inverted yield curve marks a point on a chart where short-term investments in U.S. Treasury bonds pay more than long-term ones, and is widely regarded as an ominous sign for the economy.

Despite a recent sell-off for fixed income, which primarily reflects traders pricing out the immediate risk of a global recession, the experience of the past decade suggests yields are unlikely to rise materially without something “breaking” in global markets, Perkins said in a research note on Wednesday.

TS Lombard compared the current persistent low-rate equilibrium and market hysteresis against the Bank of England’s historical database to analyze past “secular real-rate depressions” and what event triggered their reversal.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-29  Authors: elliot smith
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, yield, stagnation, suggests, past, long, economist, treasury, global, current, curve, yields, mirrors, late1800s, secular, bond, lombard, depression


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It’s a make-or-break holiday season for these six retailers

Some retail executives really feel the pressure this time of year, as the holiday season can make or break a business. “There are going to be some winners and losers this holiday season. Kohl’s results from this holiday season will say a lot about how those efforts are being received by consumers. L Brands’ Bath & Body Works division, which sells holiday-scented hand soaps and candles, tends to have a stronger holiday season. But too many deals in stores this holiday season could end up weighing


Some retail executives really feel the pressure this time of year, as the holiday season can make or break a business.
“There are going to be some winners and losers this holiday season.
Kohl’s results from this holiday season will say a lot about how those efforts are being received by consumers.
L Brands’ Bath & Body Works division, which sells holiday-scented hand soaps and candles, tends to have a stronger holiday season.
But too many deals in stores this holiday season could end up weighing
It’s a make-or-break holiday season for these six retailers Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-27  Authors: lauren thomas
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, holiday, company, makeorbreak, bath, past, stores, store, retailers, sales, brands, season, quarter


It's a make-or-break holiday season for these six retailers

For many, the holidays spark joy, and are a time to relax in the comfort of family and friends. If you’re in retail, however, it’s a bit of a different story — especially if your business is struggling. Some retail executives really feel the pressure this time of year, as the holiday season can make or break a business. For some companies, the holiday season can account for as much as 30% of annual sales. A company’s performance during this time, good or bad, can set the tone for the new year. And the beginning of the year is often when announcements of store closures and layoffs in the industry will trickle out. “There is something to be said about creating momentum and having a strong fourth quarter,” said Rob Garf, vice president of strategy and insights for Salesforce with a focus on retail. “There are going to be some winners and losers this holiday season. The winners have made a … focus on digital transformation, pervasive in their culture.” The losers, however, haven’t invested enough to make their stores and websites worth visiting. Here’s a list of companies that have a lot to prove before the year is over.

J.C. Penney

Market cap: $374 million

Stock performance over the past 12 months: down 19.4%

Shoppers sit outside of a J.C. Penney store at the Westfield Mall in Culver City, California. Martina Albertazzi | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Last year, it was disappointing holiday sales that sent J.C. Penney’s stock below $1 for the first time. For much of 2019, the department store chain has struggled to boost investor confidence and push shares higher. Its new CEO, Jill Soltau, is rolling out her own strategies, in an attempt to turn around Penney’s business. But the company is running out of time to show signs of progress. It is highly leveraged, with debt hanging over its head, as it works to stem sales losses. Penney’s latest quarter was encouraging, with it reporting a narrower-than-expected loss. But sales tumbled 10.1% from a year prior. Sales have fallen for the past seven quarters. Penney’s stores, meantime, have been criticized for being stale and lacking modern fixtures. The company has also struggled to bring in new and relevant merchandise, especially for younger shoppers. Soltau says, among other things, the company is trying to display inventory more prominently in stores, by using mannequins and other visual set-ups. But Target and Walmart are simultaneously investing in their own apparel and home goods brands, while remodeling their stores. If Penney wants to keep its stock above $1, and avoid being delisted from the NYSE, it needs to win sales this holiday season to give investors hope.

Bed Bath & Beyond

Market cap: $1.83 billion

Stock performance over the past 12 months: up 16.6%

Getty Images

Bed Bath & Beyond has a new chief this holiday season. Target’s former executive vice president and chief merchandising officer, Mark Tritton, took over on Nov. 4. Tritton helped develop many of Target’s newer in-house brands and has been credited with getting the big-box retailer back to being known as “cheap chic.” His arrival at Bed Bath & Beyond is being monitored closely. But for this holiday, he will be executing someone else’s plans. Bed Bath & Beyond has reported same-store sales declines for the past 10 quarters, and for the past two quarters they’ve been down around 6%. Part of its strategy to get back to growth has included pruning its real estate. The company, which also owns Buybuy Baby and World Market, has said it plans to shutter about 60 stores this fiscal year, which ends in March 2020. About 20 of those are expected to be under the Bed Bath & Beyond banner. It had more than 1,500 locations in its fiscal second quarter ended Aug. 31. Though Bed Bath & Beyond might not be a top shopping destination during the holiday season, the company needs to find ways to drive shoppers to stores to find the same knickknacks they could get on Amazon. Or more store closures might be needed in 2020.

Kohl’s

Market cap: $7.65 billion

Stock performance over the past 12 months: down 29.4%

A shopper browses clothing at a Kohl’s Corp. department store in Peru, Illinois Daniel Acker| Bloomberg | Getty Images

Kohl’s isn’t in as poor a shape as some of its peers in the industry. It’s not on any bankruptcy watch lists. But this holiday season is arguably an important one for the company and CEO Michelle Gass to prove her plans to drive traffic and sales are working. During the third quarter, Kohl’s really disappointed Wall Street. It slashed its profit outlook for the full year, saying it expects the retail industry to be highly promotional during the holidays. Kohl’s said its women’s apparel business has been struggling more than other categories. It said rival retailers are also getting more competitive in the home furnishings department. However, Gass said she was confident that Kohl’s had a strong plan in place to bounce back during the fourth quarter, thanks to a handful of brand launches, heightened marketing and an expanded partnership with Amazon to accept returns. Kohl’s results from this holiday season will say a lot about how those efforts are being received by consumers. In many ways, though its stores aren’t normally found at shopping malls, Kohl’s shares the same struggles as Macy’s and Nordstrom in the department store space. Nordstrom heads into this holiday season with a massive new flagship shop in Manhattan that is expected to bring in big sales. While Macy’s, after a dismal quarter, is trying to prove to Wall Street its turnaround plans have legs.

L Brands

Market cap: $5.3 billion

Stock performance over the past 12 months: down 42.5%

A customer carries a shopping bag while exiting a Victoria’s Secret Stores LLC store, a subsidiary of L Brands Inc., in New York, U.S., on Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2018. Bloomberg | Getty Images

L Brands’ sales have fallen for the past two quarters. And much of that is due to weakness at its Victoria’s Secret brand, which has reported six consecutive quarters of same-store sales declines. When it reported earnings last week, L Brands confirmed it would be canceling its 2019 Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show, as it tries to pivot marketing away from the overly sexy images it has become known for. Female teens used to flock to L Brands’ PINK stores around the holidays for branded pajama sets and sweat suits. But the company has struggled as American Eagle’s Aerie division and online companies such as Adore Me and Third Love have surged in popularity. L Brands’ Bath & Body Works division, which sells holiday-scented hand soaps and candles, tends to have a stronger holiday season. But the worry has been that Bath & Body Works’ sales growth has been stalling, too.

Gap

Market cap: $6.39 billion

Stock performance over the past 12 months: down 36.3%

People carry shopping bags in New York City. Stephanie Keith | Getty Images

Gap just had a really bad quarter. And it isn’t predicting the fourth one will be that much better. It also slashed its full-year profit outlook, when it announced CEO Art Peck was stepping down, effective immediately, in early November. Gap’s total sales have fallen for the past four quarters. Now, with an interim CEO and an ongoing search for a new chief, Gap is hitting reset. But one thing it says it won’t change are its plans to spin off its Old Navy brand into its own publicly traded company. Some investors are relieved the company is pushing forward with the split. But others worry about its rationale if growth slows at Old Navy, which was once the star of Gap’s multibrand portfolio. More recently, it has been caught in its own sales slump, along with Gap’s namesake brand and Banana Republic. Meantime, Gap is known for being heavily promotional. But too many deals in stores this holiday season could end up weighing further on profitability. Gap needs to find a balance during the holidays, between exciting shoppers with deals and keeping its profit margins in check.

Barnes & Noble

Barnes & Noble Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-27  Authors: lauren thomas
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, holiday, company, makeorbreak, bath, past, stores, store, retailers, sales, brands, season, quarter


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Best Buy earnings, housing data, consumer confidence: Three things to watch for in the markets Tuesday

Best Buy reports third quarter earnings before the bell on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley is expecting the retailer to report earnings per share of $1.01, compared to the 95 cents per share earned in the same period last year. The firm is forecasting domestic same-store sales growth of 1.4%. Morgan Stanley warned that Best Buy could report disappointing fourth-quarter guidance that overshadows an “eventful” Q3. Shares of Best Buy are up more than 11% in the past three months.


Best Buy reports third quarter earnings before the bell on Tuesday.
Morgan Stanley is expecting the retailer to report earnings per share of $1.01, compared to the 95 cents per share earned in the same period last year.
The firm is forecasting domestic same-store sales growth of 1.4%.
Morgan Stanley warned that Best Buy could report disappointing fourth-quarter guidance that overshadows an “eventful” Q3.
Shares of Best Buy are up more than 11% in the past three months.
Best Buy earnings, housing data, consumer confidence: Three things to watch for in the markets Tuesday Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-25  Authors: maggie fitzgerald
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, share, sales, best, markets, morgan, growth, housing, watch, stanley, things, confidence, buy, report, months, consumer, data, past, earnings


Best Buy earnings, housing data, consumer confidence: Three things to watch for in the markets Tuesday

Here are the most important things to know about Tuesday before you hit the door.

Best Buy reports third quarter earnings before the bell on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley is expecting the retailer to report earnings per share of $1.01, compared to the 95 cents per share earned in the same period last year. The firm is forecasting domestic same-store sales growth of 1.4%. Morgan Stanley warned that Best Buy could report disappointing fourth-quarter guidance that overshadows an “eventful” Q3.

“Our checks with major consumer electronics brands and e-commerce retailers point to a sales growth deceleration over the past 1-3 months,” said Morgan Stanley equity analyst Simeon Gutman in a note to clients on Monday.

Shares of Best Buy are up more than 11% in the past three months.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-25  Authors: maggie fitzgerald
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, share, sales, best, markets, morgan, growth, housing, watch, stanley, things, confidence, buy, report, months, consumer, data, past, earnings


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The worst of the global economic slowdown may be in the past, Goldman says

Goldman Sachs, for one, considers the slowdown that permeated 2019 as perhaps being the bottom in the growth outlook. The firm sees easier financial conditions, a strong consumer and the likelihood of a positive outcome from U.S.-China trade talks as fueling a better than expected picture ahead. Goldman’s financial conditions index is closely watched by policymakers. It uses a variety of factors, such as bond yields, stock market prices and interest rates, to compute financial conditions. Headin


Goldman Sachs, for one, considers the slowdown that permeated 2019 as perhaps being the bottom in the growth outlook.
The firm sees easier financial conditions, a strong consumer and the likelihood of a positive outcome from U.S.-China trade talks as fueling a better than expected picture ahead.
Goldman’s financial conditions index is closely watched by policymakers.
It uses a variety of factors, such as bond yields, stock market prices and interest rates, to compute financial conditions.
Headin
The worst of the global economic slowdown may be in the past, Goldman says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-21  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, economic, trade, market, global, goldman, conditions, past, 2018, growth, rates, worst, goldmans, slowdown, financial


The worst of the global economic slowdown may be in the past, Goldman says

After a year filled with intense worry that both the U.S. and global economy were about to tip into recession, the narrative is changing for 2020. There’s growing belief on Wall Street that the worst may be over as the overhang of trade fears, sliding corporate profits and geopolitical worries like Brexit begin to fade. Goldman Sachs, for one, considers the slowdown that permeated 2019 as perhaps being the bottom in the growth outlook. The firm sees easier financial conditions, a strong consumer and the likelihood of a positive outcome from U.S.-China trade talks as fueling a better than expected picture ahead.

“This easing in financial conditions suggests not only that global growth is likely to pick up somewhat in absolute terms, but also that growth may come in stronger than currently predicted by the forecaster community,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, wrote in a report compiled with several other economists from the firm’s team. Goldman’s financial conditions index is closely watched by policymakers. It uses a variety of factors, such as bond yields, stock market prices and interest rates, to compute financial conditions. As things stand now, they are the loosest they’ve been since before the financial crisis, owing to a rise in the market and a Federal Reserve that changed course sharply from the tightening bias it exhibited through 2017 and 2018. The Fed has cut rates three times this year after four increases in 2018. Those reductions not only cut borrowing costs but also helped assuage investors’ nerves after Chairman Jerome Powell, in two notable missteps, gave the impression in late 2018 that the Fed would continue to raise rates and reduce the size of the bond holdings on its balance sheet. Heading into 2020, Goldman has above-consensus calls both on U.S. GDP and global growth — 2.3% domestically against the consensus call for 1.8%, and 3.4% globally vs 3.2%.

‘Decent background’ for stocks


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-21  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, economic, trade, market, global, goldman, conditions, past, 2018, growth, rates, worst, goldmans, slowdown, financial


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You may need to save 40% of your paycheck to retire by 65, expert says — but don’t panic

Most financial experts would applaud you for putting away the recommended 10%-15% of your income each year for retirement. That, in large part, has fueled the growth of investment portfolios and retirement savings. Most people are not told by financial advisors that their future returns will likely be much lower than in the past, and their future taxes will likely be much higher. “I don’t think she’s wrong,” says Justin Halverson, a financial advisor at Great Waters Financial in Minnesota. Inste


Most financial experts would applaud you for putting away the recommended 10%-15% of your income each year for retirement.
That, in large part, has fueled the growth of investment portfolios and retirement savings.
Most people are not told by financial advisors that their future returns will likely be much lower than in the past, and their future taxes will likely be much higher.
“I don’t think she’s wrong,” says Justin Halverson, a financial advisor at Great Waters Financial in Minnesota.
Inste
You may need to save 40% of your paycheck to retire by 65, expert says — but don’t panic Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-15  Authors: sam becker, jen glantz
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, future, retire, returns, savings, told, paycheck, likely, need, expert, mitchell, past, financial, taxes, save, panic, retirement, dont


You may need to save 40% of your paycheck to retire by 65, expert says — but don't panic

Most financial experts would applaud you for putting away the recommended 10%-15% of your income each year for retirement. Unfortunately, even 15% may not add up to nearly enough by age 65 if you’re a millennial or a member of Gen Z. Younger savers may need to set aside as much as 40% of their income if they hope to retire comfortably and on time, Olivia Mitchell, a professor and executive director of Wharton’s Pension Research Council at the University of Pennsylvania, recently told CNBC Make It. That can seem alarming, especially since so many young people already struggle to save. A recent survey from credit card comparison site Finty reveals that 24% of the millennials polled say they’re doing absolutely nothing to prepare for retirement, and 44% say they have less than $500 in total savings.

Why younger people may need to save more for retirement

“Most people are not told by financial advisors that their future returns will likely be much lower than in the past, and their future taxes will likely be much higher,” Mitchell told Make It. Over the past century, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 10% each year. That, in large part, has fueled the growth of investment portfolios and retirement savings. But experts predict that’s going to slow down. Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley, recently told CNBC that investors should only expect average returns of 4.1% over the next decade. Mitchell says that taxes are likely to go up, too. The Social Security system is in a precarious position, and the budget deficit is increasing rapidly as well. Addressing those issues will probably, at some point, involve tax increases.

Most people are not told by financial advisors that their future returns will likely be much lower than in the past, and their future taxes will likely be much higher. Olivia Mitchell Professor, the Wharton School

Other experts agree with Mitchell. “I don’t think she’s wrong,” says Justin Halverson, a financial advisor at Great Waters Financial in Minnesota. Halverson says that “with forward-looking valuations, it doesn’t seem likely” that saving only 15% for retirement will cut it in the future. That said, getting anxious isn’t helpful — or necessary. “People get nervous when they hear these big numbers,” says Jacqui Kearns, the chief brand officer at New Jersey-based Affinity Federal Credit Union, like a 40% savings rate. Instead of worrying, though, she suggests you focus on what you want out of retirement and work toward those goals.

How you can increase your savings rate


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-15  Authors: sam becker, jen glantz
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, future, retire, returns, savings, told, paycheck, likely, need, expert, mitchell, past, financial, taxes, save, panic, retirement, dont


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