Gold slips from 1-month peak on Sino-US trade talk hopes

Gold bars at the Austrian Gold and Silver Separating Plant in Vienna, Austria. Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, having retreated from a one-month peak hit in the previous session as optimism surrounding trade talks between Washington and Beijing soothed investor concerns, boosting global stocks and the dollar. Simultaneously, Asian stocks also turned cautiously optimistic surrounding trade developments between the two countries on Wednesday, while still not completely discounting the possibili


Gold bars at the Austrian Gold and Silver Separating Plant in Vienna, Austria. Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, having retreated from a one-month peak hit in the previous session as optimism surrounding trade talks between Washington and Beijing soothed investor concerns, boosting global stocks and the dollar. Simultaneously, Asian stocks also turned cautiously optimistic surrounding trade developments between the two countries on Wednesday, while still not completely discounting the possibili
Gold slips from 1-month peak on Sino-US trade talk hopes Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-15
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, remain, fung, ounce, dollar, prices, surrounding, trade, tariffs, sinous, gold, slips, 1month, talk, talks, peak, hopes


Gold slips from 1-month peak on Sino-US trade talk hopes

Gold bars at the Austrian Gold and Silver Separating Plant in Vienna, Austria.

Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, having retreated from a one-month peak hit in the previous session as optimism surrounding trade talks between Washington and Beijing soothed investor concerns, boosting global stocks and the dollar.

Spot gold was steady at $1,296.49 an ounce by 0808 GMT.

U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% higher to $1,297.20 an ounce.

“Gold is restrained as people are still interested in the dollar. The $1,300 level also looks like a good resistance,” said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals in Hong Kong.

The dollar held firm in early Asian trading, having been supported on Tuesday by U.S. President Donald Trump downplaying the recent escalation in his trade war with China as “a little squabble” and insisting that talks between the two countries had not collapsed.

A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of non-U.S. currency.

Simultaneously, Asian stocks also turned cautiously optimistic surrounding trade developments between the two countries on Wednesday, while still not completely discounting the possibilities of a protracted spat.

“The (gold) market is holding because some people bought gold especially after the Chinese government also raised tariffs on U.S. goods,” Fung said, adding that the metal is expected to remain range-bound between $1,280 and $1,310 an ounce.

The biggest trigger for gold, which had been mostly range-bound for the past week, came on Monday after China announced that it would impose retaliatory tariffs on a range of U.S. goods.

There was some profit-taking in the previous session after prices jumped about $20 on Monday and above the key $1,300 level, analysts and traders said.

“The ongoing Sino-U.S. trade dispute has illustrated cooling conditions as both parties expressed willingness to resolve existing trade differences,” Phillip Futures analysts wrote in a note.

“Gold prices though easing up on bullish gains will remain supported as investors remain cautious on lingering U.S.-China trade worries in the near term.”

Market participants now keenly eye economic data from Europe that will provide further cues on the strength of the global economy.

Among other precious metals, silver rose 0.2% to $14.81 an ounce, while platinum fell 0.2% to $853.75.

Palladium fell 0.7% to $1,326.25 an ounce.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-15
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, remain, fung, ounce, dollar, prices, surrounding, trade, tariffs, sinous, gold, slips, 1month, talk, talks, peak, hopes


Home Forums

    • Forum
    • Topics
    • Posts
    • Last Post

China’s population could peak in 2023, here’s why that matters

China’s population is likely to peak in 2023, according to a study by online database company Global Demographics and analytics firm Complete Intelligence. “People had expected peak population in China to be a decade away, when in fact, it’s not,” he said. The study predicts that 13.3 million babies will be born in 2023, down from 15.2 million last year. The impact of China’s peak populationChina’s impending population decline is likely to negatively affect certain businesses, the report said. A


China’s population is likely to peak in 2023, according to a study by online database company Global Demographics and analytics firm Complete Intelligence. “People had expected peak population in China to be a decade away, when in fact, it’s not,” he said. The study predicts that 13.3 million babies will be born in 2023, down from 15.2 million last year. The impact of China’s peak populationChina’s impending population decline is likely to negatively affect certain businesses, the report said. A
China’s population could peak in 2023, here’s why that matters Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-03  Authors: abigail ng
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, peak, market, million, china, births, population, nash, heres, number, women, chinas, 2023, report, matters


China's population could peak in 2023, here's why that matters

A boy tries to catch soap bubbles on the promenade of the Bund along the Huangpu River during a May Day holiday in Shanghai on May 1, 2019.

The world’s largest country by population could hit a ceiling six years earlier than expected, a new report predicts. China’s population is likely to peak in 2023, according to a study by online database company Global Demographics and analytics firm Complete Intelligence. The Chinese government had previously estimated that the country would hit its maximum population size in 2029. “What we see is the rate of growth slowing pretty, pretty quickly,” said Tony Nash, chief executive and founder of Complete Intelligence. “People had expected peak population in China to be a decade away, when in fact, it’s not,” he said. “It’s right around the corner.” The decline in births is driven by a “maternity cliff,” according to the report. The number of women of childbearing age in China — defined as aged 15 to 49 by the publishers — is set to fall from 346 million in 2018 to 318 million in 2023. With fewer women of childbearing age and fewer births per 1,000 women, the total number of newborns will drop as well. The study predicts that 13.3 million babies will be born in 2023, down from 15.2 million last year. China started easing its one-child policy in late 2013, and while those changes initially produced a boost in births, the effect may have worn off. That is, authors of the report wrote that Chinese mothers are no longer delivering on “pent up demand” for children since the policy was lifted to counter aging problems in the country.

The number of births per 1,000 women rose sharply from 45.6 in 2015 to 49.9 in 2016, the year where all Chinese couples were allowed to have two children. In 2018, the figure dropped drastically to 43.9. Total births fell 12 percent from 2017 to 2018. “China has stabilized its total population successfully,” Clint Laurent, founder of Global Demographics said in a press release. “But delaying relaxation of the One Child Policy means it is now short of childbearing women.” Complete Intelligence’s Nash told CNBC’s Street Signs: “The real issue … is that every woman who will have a child before 2035 is already alive.” “There’s really nothing that the Chinese government can do to force more babies,” he added. That is, unless each woman has “profoundly” more children, but that is “unlikely” as China gets wealthier, Nash noted.

The impact of China’s peak population

China’s impending population decline is likely to negatively affect certain businesses, the report said. In particular, industries that geared up to meet growing demand from the “false dawn” in the last five years could suffer. “The infant and child products will be the first hit,” Nash said. Consumer goods companies will now play a “market share game,” instead of an overall market growth one, Nash said. “It gets much, much more competitive from here on out.” Unlike the U.S., where there is a large millennial market to serve, China has a large baby boomer cohort, but it’s “hollow” afterward, said Nash. “That size of the market really continues to decline.” The China Maternity Cliff report predicts a “significant” impact on businesses that are part of the preschool market, such as toys and daycare. Both private and public schools may also need to adjust to the falling number of students in the years to come. Even further into the future, consumption could fall as dependency ratios increase in the country, said Nash. The dependency ratio refers to the number of dependents compared to the working population. “That dependency ratio only deteriorates from 2023 onward,” said Nash. “How much income do people have to spend, how much can they really put into the economy when, let’s say, somebody is caring for their parents and their children? ” He also said the country, together with the rest of North Asia, will need to take a “serious look” at automation in order to “keep their edge.” After 2023, Northeast Asian countries — Korea, Japan, Taiwan and China — will all have peaked in population, according to the projections. “If that part of the world is going to continue to manufacture (around 35%) of global goods, they’re going to have to take a serious look at automation,” he said. With no young, new entrants to the workforce, it will be “much more difficult” for China to have an average cost per worker that’s “affordable and competitive globally,” he said. There could be a “serious migration” of low-level jobs to places such as Bangladesh and Vietnam as wages rise in China, the Complete Intelligence chief added. Aside from the concerns about businesses and the economy, Nash said one “big” concern is income disparity. “As populations are in decline, those income classes solidify, and … the economic mobility that people have declines,” he said. “So that’s a real risk.” —CNBC’s Yen Nee Lee and Reuters contributed to this report.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-03  Authors: abigail ng
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, peak, market, million, china, births, population, nash, heres, number, women, chinas, 2023, report, matters


Home Forums

    • Forum
    • Topics
    • Posts
    • Last Post

Dollar index hovers at 23-month peak

Most major currencies held in tight ranges on light trading volume as Japan began its extended Golden Week holiday. “You have a lot of economic data later this week from around the world. An index that tracks the greenback against the euro, yen, sterling and three other currencies was down 0.16% at 97.85. The dollar index failed to move higher after data that showed U.S. consumer spending gaining 0.9% in March, marking its biggest monthly increase in more than 9-1/2 years. Since the Fed’s March


Most major currencies held in tight ranges on light trading volume as Japan began its extended Golden Week holiday. “You have a lot of economic data later this week from around the world. An index that tracks the greenback against the euro, yen, sterling and three other currencies was down 0.16% at 97.85. The dollar index failed to move higher after data that showed U.S. consumer spending gaining 0.9% in March, marking its biggest monthly increase in more than 9-1/2 years. Since the Fed’s March
Dollar index hovers at 23-month peak Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-29
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, hovers, trading, data, 23month, dollar, peak, major, increase, economic, currencies, week, yen, index


Dollar index hovers at 23-month peak

The dollar was marginally lower against a basket of currencies on Monday, hovering near a 23-month high, as traders await more data to convince them whether to add to their bullish positions in the greenback.

Most major currencies held in tight ranges on light trading volume as Japan began its extended Golden Week holiday. China will observe its Labor Day holiday from Wednesday to Friday. A Federal Reserve policy meeting, Brexit negotiations and a raft of global data including U.S. payrolls could each be the trigger for big currency swings this week.

“You have a lot of economic data later this week from around the world. People are waiting to see if there is a lot of major shifts,” said Chuck Tomes, associate portfolio manager at Manulife Asset Management in Boston.

A swathe of manufacturing surveys from Europe and China are due later this week, along with a first reading on EU GDP.

The U.S. payrolls report on Friday is forecast to show a solid increase of 185,000 jobs in April, with unemployment at 3.8%.

An index that tracks the greenback against the euro, yen, sterling and three other currencies was down 0.16% at 97.85. Last week, it reached 98.330, the highest since May 2017.

The euro was 0.32% higher at $1.1184, while the dollar was up 0.12% at 111.71 yen. The dollar index failed to move higher after data that showed U.S. consumer spending gaining 0.9% in March, marking its biggest monthly increase in more than 9-1/2 years.

The core personal consumption expenditure price index, on the other hand, did not change in March, leaving its year-over-year increase at 1.6%, the smallest rise in 14 months.

Traders await clues on the Fed’s global economic outlook as the central bank’s policymaking board meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. Analysts do not anticipate any major changes from Fed officials who signaled last month they would not raise interest rates in 2019.

Since the Fed’s March meeting, U.S. economic data has shown the expansion has remained intact despite some slowing since late 2018.

Last Friday, the government said first-quarter gross domestic product grew at a 3.2% pace, but the figure was bolstered largely by a surge in inventories and exports. Speculators raised their long dollar positions to $37.21 billion last week, the highest level since December 2015, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released late Friday.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-29
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, hovers, trading, data, 23month, dollar, peak, major, increase, economic, currencies, week, yen, index


Home Forums

    • Forum
    • Topics
    • Posts
    • Last Post

Uneven housing recovery persists, with some markets still behind their pre-recession peak

With the U.S housing bubble far in the rearview mirror, home prices in most places have passed their pre-recession peak. In Naples, Florida, the median price of $337,100 is less than its July 2006 peak of $457,200. Prices have pushed far higher than their previous peaks in some metro areas. For example, in Midland, Texas, the current median of $261,100 is 75% above its May 2008 peak price of $149,300. For markets where home prices have surpassed their previous peak and continue to rise, local dy


With the U.S housing bubble far in the rearview mirror, home prices in most places have passed their pre-recession peak. In Naples, Florida, the median price of $337,100 is less than its July 2006 peak of $457,200. Prices have pushed far higher than their previous peaks in some metro areas. For example, in Midland, Texas, the current median of $261,100 is 75% above its May 2008 peak price of $149,300. For markets where home prices have surpassed their previous peak and continue to rise, local dy
Uneven housing recovery persists, with some markets still behind their pre-recession peak Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-24  Authors: sarah obrien, john w schoen
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, uneven, markets, housing, prices, previous, metro, areas, far, prerecession, median, price, peak, higher, persists, recovery


Uneven housing recovery persists, with some markets still behind their pre-recession peak

With the U.S housing bubble far in the rearview mirror, home prices in most places have passed their pre-recession peak. In other spots, though, it’s a different story.

The chart above compares current home prices with those in May 2007 — when values peaked nationally and began sliding (some areas hit their exact top at a different point). While the median home price bottomed in early 2012 and then started climbing, prices in some metro areas still remain below where they were 12 years ago.

“Some markets that experienced a huge run-up and then a big downturn are still waiting for a recovery,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. “For some people, the decline from the time they purchased was so severe that it’s taking a long time to recover.”

More from Personal Finance:

How to turn your side hustle into a legit business

Homeowner avoided ‘energy guzzlers’ and it’s paying off

Brokers sanctioned in fallout from $1.2 billion Ponzi scheme

In Winchester, Virginia, for example, the median home price of $225,000 remains below its March 2006 peak of $270,900. In Naples, Florida, the median price of $337,100 is less than its July 2006 peak of $457,200.

Nationally, the median home price is $226,700, according to Zillow. That’s about 13% more than its 2007 peak of $200,500.

Prices have pushed far higher than their previous peaks in some metro areas. For example, in Midland, Texas, the current median of $261,100 is 75% above its May 2008 peak price of $149,300.

For markets where home prices have surpassed their previous peak and continue to rise, local dynamics could contribute to prices moving even higher.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-24  Authors: sarah obrien, john w schoen
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, uneven, markets, housing, prices, previous, metro, areas, far, prerecession, median, price, peak, higher, persists, recovery


Home Forums

    • Forum
    • Topics
    • Posts
    • Last Post

Cramer: Overvalued stocks like Pinterest, Zoom could lead to a market peak

The debuts of Pinterest and Zoom Video Communications on public markets also came with froth, which could lead to a market peak, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Thursday. On the Nasdaq Composite, Zoom is trading even higher — 46-times fiscal 2019 sales, not earnings, Cramer said. Cramer rehashed his argument that an oversupply of high-priced stocks could put a dagger in the longest bull run in stock market history. “The lack of an effective lock-up crushed buyers, and I had hoped would quell enthusiasm f


The debuts of Pinterest and Zoom Video Communications on public markets also came with froth, which could lead to a market peak, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Thursday. On the Nasdaq Composite, Zoom is trading even higher — 46-times fiscal 2019 sales, not earnings, Cramer said. Cramer rehashed his argument that an oversupply of high-priced stocks could put a dagger in the longest bull run in stock market history. “The lack of an effective lock-up crushed buyers, and I had hoped would quell enthusiasm f
Cramer: Overvalued stocks like Pinterest, Zoom could lead to a market peak Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-18  Authors: tyler clifford
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, overvalued, zoom, peak, sales, stocks, stock, trading, lead, money, pinterest, deals, market, cramer


Cramer: Overvalued stocks like Pinterest, Zoom could lead to a market peak

The debuts of Pinterest and Zoom Video Communications on public markets also came with froth, which could lead to a market peak, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Thursday.

Froth is a trading environment that usually precedes a market bubble.

“The top of the market always comes when there is tremendous euphoria, and today we saw that euphoria in the two deals that went off hot,” the “Mad Money” host said.

After a $19 IPO, Pinterest closed its first day of trading at $24.40 — more than a 28% gain. Zoom originally priced its shares at $36. It settled at $62 at the end of the day — a more than 72% run.

Pinterest is selling at 21-times 2018 sales, not earnings, on the New York Stock Exchange. On the Nasdaq Composite, Zoom is trading even higher — 46-times fiscal 2019 sales, not earnings, Cramer said.

The host said he likes the prospects that each of these companies have, but the stock prices could be running in worrisome territory.

“Now that investors or traders or flippers are beginning to pay outrageous multiples to sales, not earnings, but sales, beware,” he said. “That’s a train that is headed to overvaluation hell and you will have to jump off it before it crashes.”

Cramer rehashed his argument that an oversupply of high-priced stocks could put a dagger in the longest bull run in stock market history. Lyft’s IPO bust, he said, was powered in part by the shareholders that were allowed to sell the stock instead of adhering to a lock-up period that could have ranged from 90-180 days.

“The lack of an effective lock-up crushed buyers, and I had hoped would quell enthusiasm for further deals,” Cramer said. “That, however after today, is clearly not the case. So we are going to bring a whole new class of unseasoned investor[s] into this market who are gaming the IPOs and that kind of investor usually arrives after the easy money is made.”

Cramer also said he’s concerned that there isn’t enough money available in growth-focused mutual funds to buy into the IPOs that are in the pipeline. The majority of new money being invested in the market has gone toward index funds, he pointed out.

“That means they can’t be buyers as these new stocks of courses aren’t in indices,” he said. “What will happen is growth funds will have to sell some of their holdings in order to buy these new holdings and, by the way, that happened all morning today.”

Furthermore, there has been a limited amount of supply on Wall Street, which means “there isn’t a lot of excess stock flying around,” Cramer said. Buyback programs have also shrank the volume of stocks available to trade, which could be counterproductive because stocks have rallied so much this year, he added.

That could create dangerous investing scenarios for the anticipated deals in Slack, Uber, and Palantir, he said.

“If you heard about the first-day gains in stocks like Pinterest and Zoom and you haven’t been in the racket, you are going to go to the gaming tables and hope to get some stock on the next deals,” Cramer said. “I am talking about the worst kinds of holders. Holders that are your enemy if you are in a stock that they dominate.”

There’s no need to panic yet — Thursday was just day one, he said.

“As these deals flood the market though, you will see across the board pressure as existing stocks are liquidated to buy the new ones,” Cramer said. “Selling cheap to fund expensive, like Pinterest, like Zoom, is a loser’s game, but may will end up playing it.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-18  Authors: tyler clifford
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, overvalued, zoom, peak, sales, stocks, stock, trading, lead, money, pinterest, deals, market, cramer


Home Forums

    • Forum
    • Topics
    • Posts
    • Last Post

Apex Legends’ viewership hours plunged 75% from their peak since the game’s launch. Here’s what that says about today’s gaming and streaming space

The report showed that the game hit peak viewership levels when viewers watched over 40 million hours of Apex Legends-focused streams the week following the game’s launch. The current outlook for Apex Legends also seems to reflect the same management and execution issues that have plagued EA, Kulina said. “We haven’t seen any new data regarding revenue or any numbers [for Apex Legends], that’s another frustration; we’re not getting consistent updates,” he added. Shares of EA soared 21% in the tw


The report showed that the game hit peak viewership levels when viewers watched over 40 million hours of Apex Legends-focused streams the week following the game’s launch. The current outlook for Apex Legends also seems to reflect the same management and execution issues that have plagued EA, Kulina said. “We haven’t seen any new data regarding revenue or any numbers [for Apex Legends], that’s another frustration; we’re not getting consistent updates,” he added. Shares of EA soared 21% in the tw
Apex Legends’ viewership hours plunged 75% from their peak since the game’s launch. Here’s what that says about today’s gaming and streaming space Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-18  Authors: annie pei
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, game, heres, streamers, report, peak, twitch, hours, plunged, todays, launch, space, apex, million, streaming, nir, viewership, legends


Apex Legends' viewership hours plunged 75% from their peak since the game's launch. Here's what that says about today's gaming and streaming space

Lately when gamers go on Twitch, they see Electronic Arts’ battle royale game Apex Legends ranking as the third- or fourth-most-watched category — if that — of all categories streaming on the platform, a far cry from when the game launched in February and dominated viewership.

That’s reflected in a quarterly report released Thursday by StreamElements, a platform that helps Twitch and YouTube streamers manage and improve their livestreams. The report showed that the game hit peak viewership levels when viewers watched over 40 million hours of Apex Legends-focused streams the week following the game’s launch.

But by mid-March, viewership had plunged to around 10 million hours watched in one week — a drop of about 75% from those peak levels back in February.

The key here, according to StreamElements co-founder and CEO Doron Nir, is that based on the report numbers livestreamers are actually now more influential than traditional press in driving awareness of a new game. Nir points out that 57% of the total hours watched on Twitch for all categories actually came from the top 1,000 streamers alone, so you “don’t need a lot of streamers to make noise, just those at the top.”

“The big takeaway is that partnering with premier streamers is ideal for generating hype for a game, but it’s up to the game itself to sustain that momentum once those streamers move onto other titles,” he wrote to CNBC. “Keep in mind that it’s common for a game to come down a little bit after the initial hype is over, but if it’s a good game, it will return to the top when a new season or content is released.”

In fact, viewership for Apex Legends dropped in March when only two of the top 20 streamers focused on the game, according to the report.

“Since there was a significant drop in the charts when Apex Legends went from having 8 to only 2 of the top twenty streamers playing it, it illustrated the strength of the personalities more than the game itself,” Nir added.

As an example, Nir mentioned the spike in viewership for Grand Theft Auto V, or GTA V, a game in the GTA series that was actually released almost six years ago. In March, many of the biggest personalities on Twitch began streaming GTA V after signing up for NoPixel, a role-playing server that essentially allows approved users to play the game as a character of their choice other than the original protagonist.

That shift in focus by many of Twitch’s most popular personalities drove GTA V to become the third-most-watched game on the streaming platform in March.

EA and Respawn Entertainment, the EA-acquired game developer behind the Titanfall universe, upon which Apex Legends is based, confirmed in early March that the game had topped 50 million users in just one month. While Apex Legends was also celebrated at the time for beating battle royale giant Fortnite in terms of early player sign-ups (10 million players within 3 days, a number that took Fortnite about 2 weeks to reach), the report shows that the latter held steady as Apex Legends viewership declined.

Fortnite ended March as the most-watched game in the first quarter on Twitch.

Joel Kulina, head of technology and media trading at Wedbush Securities, said that while initial reports point to a decline in downloads and viewership for Apex Legends, “it doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re seeing a decline in users or revenue is declining.” He said EA management has had a number of execution issues that have become a burden for the company.

“There has been a series of missteps [from Battlefield V and Anthem, to name a few], and those credibility issues are a concern for investors,” he told CNBC.

The current outlook for Apex Legends also seems to reflect the same management and execution issues that have plagued EA, Kulina said.

“We haven’t seen any new data regarding revenue or any numbers [for Apex Legends], that’s another frustration; we’re not getting consistent updates,” he added.

Ultimately, like many of the big traditional video game publishers, EA is struggling to adapt to a gaming world that has become more social and relies on whole new monetization systems, Kulina said.

Shares of EA soared 21% in the two weeks following the release of Apex Legends. They have since dropped about 13%.

According to SuperData, Apex Legends generated an estimated $92 million in revenue across all platforms in February, setting an opening-month launch record for free-to-play games.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-18  Authors: annie pei
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, game, heres, streamers, report, peak, twitch, hours, plunged, todays, launch, space, apex, million, streaming, nir, viewership, legends


Home Forums

    • Forum
    • Topics
    • Posts
    • Last Post

David Stockman: Rally is ‘just day traders, chart monkeys,’ crash coming

It’s a subject that’s in his new book, “Peak Trump: The Undrainable Swamp and The Fantasy of MAGA.” “We hit peak Trump and peak market at 2,940 on the S&P back in September. I think that’s the peak for a long time to come, and I think Trump foolishly embraced the stock market,” Stockman added. He also emphasizes the record budget deficit as an unnerving headwind. “We should be having almost no deficit at the top of a business cycle,” Stockman said.


It’s a subject that’s in his new book, “Peak Trump: The Undrainable Swamp and The Fantasy of MAGA.” “We hit peak Trump and peak market at 2,940 on the S&P back in September. I think that’s the peak for a long time to come, and I think Trump foolishly embraced the stock market,” Stockman added. He also emphasizes the record budget deficit as an unnerving headwind. “We should be having almost no deficit at the top of a business cycle,” Stockman said.
David Stockman: Rally is ‘just day traders, chart monkeys,’ crash coming Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-13  Authors: stephanie landsman, chris goodney, bloomberg, getty images, spencer platt, daniel acker, david a grogan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, think, crash, deficit, traders, coming, thats, going, monkeys, market, peak, day, budget, trump, cycle, rally, chart, david, stockman


David Stockman: Rally is 'just day traders, chart monkeys,' crash coming

David Stockman: Market’s bounce off low ‘has nothing to do with rationality’ 20 Hours Ago | 01:31

Not even a 20 percent rebound off the December low is changing David Stockman’s bearish prognosis for the stock market.

Stockman, who served as President Ronald Reagan’s director of Office of Management and Budget, suggests fundamentals are not driving the 2019 rally.

“This is just day traders, chart monkeys, robo machines. This has nothing to do with rationality or investment analysis on any reasonable time basis,” Stockman said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” “There’s no Trump boom. We’re near the end of this cycle. Recessions haven’t been outlawed. It will happen in the next year or two.”

It’s a subject that’s in his new book, “Peak Trump: The Undrainable Swamp and The Fantasy of MAGA.”

“We hit peak Trump and peak market at 2,940 on the S&P back in September. I think that’s the peak for a long time to come, and I think Trump foolishly embraced the stock market,” Stockman added.

He sees the S&P 500 plunging to 1,600 or lower — a more than 40 percent drop from current levels.

For years, Stockman has been warning investors a sell-off of that magnitude is inevitable. Two years ago, he predicted a “horrendous storm” would hit stocks. It never happened. Last year, he called it a “daredevil market.”

Yet, he’s unwavering in his bearish case.

“We’ve got headwinds coming from all over the world, and you can see it in the export data, in the European economy, in the big troubles going on in China, [and] you can see it in our own data, which has been really weak,” said Stockman.

He also emphasizes the record budget deficit as an unnerving headwind.

“It is a huge risk. I mean it’s actually crazy time that this market and Washington, both ends of the Acela corridor, are totally ignoring,” Stockman said. “We’re going to go into a fiscal crisis in the 2020s when the entire baby boomers are retiring and Social Security and Medicare are soaring that we won’t come out of. That’s the big elephant in the room.”

According to Stockman, President Donald Trump’s budget released this week reinforces and underscores how bad the deficit has gotten.

“We should be having almost no deficit at the top of a business cycle,” Stockman said. “We have a serious problem of unhinged central banking, and we have a Washington that has totally been euthanized by cheap yields on the debt. And, they pretend you can borrow $4 trillion at the top of a business cycle and live to tell about it.”

He contends a resolution to the U.S.-China trade war wouldn’t alter his negative view.

“The idea that somehow there is going to be a China deal and that will make everything better, I think, is laughable,” Stockman said.

Asked about Stockman’s comments, White House deputy press secretary Lindsay Walters said via email: “Due to the President’s pro growth policies the economy is booming. More people are employed today than previously were and more jobs are remaining on our shores. The President’s budget calls for economic policies that drive down the deficit and continue to bring prosperity to all Americans.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-13  Authors: stephanie landsman, chris goodney, bloomberg, getty images, spencer platt, daniel acker, david a grogan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, think, crash, deficit, traders, coming, thats, going, monkeys, market, peak, day, budget, trump, cycle, rally, chart, david, stockman


Home Forums

    • Forum
    • Topics
    • Posts
    • Last Post

South Korea’s jobless rate jumps to 9-year peak as minimum wage hike roils labor market

Exports declined in January as sales to China shrank for a third month in a row, adding to the strains for South Korea’s manufacturing and services sector jobs. Effective from January, the minimum wage increased 10.9 percent from last year to 8,350 won ($7.46) an hour, following a 16 percent increase made for 2018. Workers at the manufacturing sector were the hardest hit in January, shedding 170,000 jobs from a year earlier. Construction sector and retailers also lost 19,000 jobs and 67,000 jobs


Exports declined in January as sales to China shrank for a third month in a row, adding to the strains for South Korea’s manufacturing and services sector jobs. Effective from January, the minimum wage increased 10.9 percent from last year to 8,350 won ($7.46) an hour, following a 16 percent increase made for 2018. Workers at the manufacturing sector were the hardest hit in January, shedding 170,000 jobs from a year earlier. Construction sector and retailers also lost 19,000 jobs and 67,000 jobs
South Korea’s jobless rate jumps to 9-year peak as minimum wage hike roils labor market Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-13  Authors: carl court, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, labor, manufacturing, peak, rate, roils, wage, economy, sector, construction, jobs, market, south, policy, wages, jumps, minimum, koreas


South Korea's jobless rate jumps to 9-year peak as minimum wage hike roils labor market

South Korea’s unemployment rate jumped to a nine-year high in January as more people shunned low-paying work in the face of rising minimum wages, putting further pressure on the economy and deepening policy frustrations for President Moon Jae-in.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent in January in seasonally adjusted terms, the highest since the 4.7 percent level posted in January 2010, with most of the job losses seen in manufacturing and construction sectors, data from Statistics Korea showed on Wednesday.

Vanishing jobs is hitting Asia’s fourth largest economy at a time when the trade dispute between the United States and China — its two biggest trading partners — threatens to hurt the world’s sixth-largest exporter.

Exports declined in January as sales to China shrank for a third month in a row, adding to the strains for South Korea’s manufacturing and services sector jobs.

“The trade disputes hasn’t hit the nation’s manufacturers yet and recent job losses are more related to local restructuring issues and the minimum wage hikes hitting self-employed businesses,” said Lee Sang-jae, an analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities.

“Having said that, manufacturers are likely to hire even fewer workers should this exports downturn continue.”

In December, the jobless rate was 3.8 percent.

A combined 29 percent hike in the nation’s mandatory minimum wages over only two years have led to a drop in low-paying jobs across retailers, construction and retail sectors in a blow to the economy already grappling with slowing exports.

Effective from January, the minimum wage increased 10.9 percent from last year to 8,350 won ($7.46) an hour, following a 16 percent increase made for 2018.

Workers at the manufacturing sector were the hardest hit in January, shedding 170,000 jobs from a year earlier. Construction sector and retailers also lost 19,000 jobs and 67,000 jobs, respectively.

The spike in the jobless rate adds to economic policy frustrations and political challenges for President Moon whose approval rating has dropped sharply in recent months.

Shortly after the Wednesday data release, finance minister Hong Nam-ki said at a policy meeting the government will be making “all-out efforts to achieve its goal to create 150,000 jobs” this year.

Economists say a combination of falling exports, China’s slowdown and a weaker labor market pose further risks for Asia’s fourth-largest economy this year.

The rising risks to growth has prompted the central bank to adopt a more cautious approach to policy. Last month, the Bank of Korea left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 percent, while trimming the growth outlook amid a cooling global economy.

Minutes of that meeting released on Tuesday showed a majority of BOK board members see inflation pressures remaining weak, reinforcing market consensus that policymakers would stand pat for some time.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-13  Authors: carl court, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, labor, manufacturing, peak, rate, roils, wage, economy, sector, construction, jobs, market, south, policy, wages, jumps, minimum, koreas


Home Forums

    • Forum
    • Topics
    • Posts
    • Last Post

A majority of small-business owners think a recession is coming: Survey

Main Street has caught up to Wall Street, at least when it comes to increased fears of a recession. A narrow majority of small-business owners across the United States expect a recession in the next year, according to the latest CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey. This was the first time in the two-year-plus history of the survey that small-business owners were asked for their recession forecast, but the broader survey trends over time indicate more caution on the part of entrepreneurs as m


Main Street has caught up to Wall Street, at least when it comes to increased fears of a recession. A narrow majority of small-business owners across the United States expect a recession in the next year, according to the latest CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey. This was the first time in the two-year-plus history of the survey that small-business owners were asked for their recession forecast, but the broader survey trends over time indicate more caution on the part of entrepreneurs as m
A majority of small-business owners think a recession is coming: Survey Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-11  Authors: eric rosenbaum
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, street, business, owners, decline, 2018, majority, survey, smallbusiness, wall, think, peak, recession, coming


A majority of small-business owners think a recession is coming: Survey

Main Street has caught up to Wall Street, at least when it comes to increased fears of a recession.

A narrow majority of small-business owners across the United States expect a recession in the next year, according to the latest CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey. This was the first time in the two-year-plus history of the survey that small-business owners were asked for their recession forecast, but the broader survey trends over time indicate more caution on the part of entrepreneurs as multiple readings of small-business sentiment have declined.

The record level for the CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Confidence Index was reached in the third quarter of 2018 and has declined since then. Expectations for revenue and hiring, as well as over business conditions, also have declined from peak levels in Q3 2018.

The survey — which was conducted by SurveyMonkey among more than 2,200 small-business owners across the country between Jan. 28 and Feb. 4 — does not indicate a major retreat on Main Street when the results are viewed on a longer-term basis. The current levels for these indicators remain much higher than they were a few years ago. The confidence decline from the third-quarter 2018 peak level occurred over the same period of time when the U.S. stock market, which soared into the third quarter of last year, suffered a dramatic decline with many sectors of the economy ending 2018 in a correction (decline of 10 percent) or bear market (decline of 20 percent).

“While a slim majority of small-business owners see a recession ahead, there’s little sign that they think it’s imminent,” said Jon Cohen, chief research officer at SurveyMonkey. “The small-business index has tapered off from its peak in Q3 2018, but it certainly hasn’t hit a wall, and several of its core components remain strong,” Cohen said.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-11  Authors: eric rosenbaum
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, street, business, owners, decline, 2018, majority, survey, smallbusiness, wall, think, peak, recession, coming


Home Forums

    • Forum
    • Topics
    • Posts
    • Last Post

How does Tom Brady keep winning Super Bowls? It might have more to do with his brain than you think

Science has argued that most athletes hit their peak performance at the age of 30. According to a systematic review published in the journal Sports Medicine, hockey players perform best between the ages of 27 and 28. Not long ago, most of us believed that the brain you’re born with is the brain you live with. Still, lots of highly successful people — not just Brady — put stock into activities designed to sharpen their brains. And if Tom Brady ends up winning another Super Bowl, I’ll be signing u


Science has argued that most athletes hit their peak performance at the age of 30. According to a systematic review published in the journal Sports Medicine, hockey players perform best between the ages of 27 and 28. Not long ago, most of us believed that the brain you’re born with is the brain you live with. Still, lots of highly successful people — not just Brady — put stock into activities designed to sharpen their brains. And if Tom Brady ends up winning another Super Bowl, I’ll be signing u
How does Tom Brady keep winning Super Bowls? It might have more to do with his brain than you think Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-04  Authors: tom popomaronis, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, bowls, play, brains, winning, science, peak, bradys, does, brain, hit, think, journal, tom, brady, super, best


How does Tom Brady keep winning Super Bowls? It might have more to do with his brain than you think

While most quarterbacks would have crumbled under pressure, Brady’s mental strength became most apparent in the second half of last night’s game, when he seamlessly drove the ball 69 yards in five plays, setting up his running back teammate Sony Michel’s two-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.

There’s no doubt that superior athletes to Brady exist, and many of them are likely younger. Science has argued that most athletes hit their peak performance at the age of 30. According to a systematic review published in the journal Sports Medicine, hockey players perform best between the ages of 27 and 28. For sprints, jumps and throws, men and women hit their peak around 25. Male and female marathoners are at their best at ages 30 and 29, respectively.

Brady is 41. Could it be that the weirdest, seemingly most unrelated aspect of Brady’s training is actually giving him a massive edge? Not long ago, most of us believed that the brain you’re born with is the brain you live with. That’s changed, and today there are entire communities and fields (think “microdosing” and “nootropics”) devoted to capitalizing on more of the brain’s potential.

Are games the way to do it? The jury is still out on that, although some science points to no. Still, lots of highly successful people — not just Brady — put stock into activities designed to sharpen their brains. Various world-class leaders agree, too: Warren Buffett and Bill Gates play bridge. Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk play video games.

And if Tom Brady ends up winning another Super Bowl, I’ll be signing up for TB12.

Tom Popomaronis is a commerce expert and proud Baltimore native. Currently, he is the Senior Director of Product Innovation at the Hawkins Group. His work has been featured in Forbes, Fast Company and The Washington Post. In 2014, he was named one of the “40 Under 40” by the Baltimore Business Journal. Follow him on LinkedIn and Twitter @tpopomaronis .

Like this story? Subscribe to CNBC Make It on YouTube!

Don’t miss:


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-04  Authors: tom popomaronis, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, bowls, play, brains, winning, science, peak, bradys, does, brain, hit, think, journal, tom, brady, super, best


Home Forums

    • Forum
    • Topics
    • Posts
    • Last Post