Markets are underplaying the risk of the UK government imploding, strategist says

Investors are underestimating the potential for the U.K. government to “implode,” resulting in a snap general election, a senior foreign exchange strategist told CNBC. Such an eventuality would have hit the pound by as much as 10%, according to Jeremy Stretch, the head of G-10 currency strategy at CIBC. Consequently, bets against the pound — known as short-selling — have pared to nine-month lows, but analysts still remain bearish on the outlook for sterling in all Brexit eventualities. Stretch p


Investors are underestimating the potential for the U.K. government to “implode,” resulting in a snap general election, a senior foreign exchange strategist told CNBC. Such an eventuality would have hit the pound by as much as 10%, according to Jeremy Stretch, the head of G-10 currency strategy at CIBC. Consequently, bets against the pound — known as short-selling — have pared to nine-month lows, but analysts still remain bearish on the outlook for sterling in all Brexit eventualities. Stretch p
Markets are underplaying the risk of the UK government imploding, strategist says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-23  Authors: elliot smith, sean gallup, getty images news, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, remains, pound, westminster, stretch, risk, strategist, markets, imploding, risks, remain, underplaying, potential, sterling, uk, brexit, weeks


Markets are underplaying the risk of the UK government imploding, strategist says

Investors are underestimating the potential for the U.K. government to “implode,” resulting in a snap general election, a senior foreign exchange strategist told CNBC.

Sterling volatility has fallen sharply in recent weeks after Brussels and Westminster agreed to delay Britain’s departure date by up to six months, removing any immediate risks of a no-deal Brexit. Such an eventuality would have hit the pound by as much as 10%, according to Jeremy Stretch, the head of G-10 currency strategy at CIBC.

Consequently, bets against the pound — known as short-selling — have pared to nine-month lows, but analysts still remain bearish on the outlook for sterling in all Brexit eventualities. The pound has gained nearly 2% on the dollar since the turn of the year but it started this week below $1.30 as the British parliament returned from its Easter break.

Stretch pointed to a lack of substantive progress in negotiating the stalemate between the Conservative government and the opposition Labour Party as driving this caution.

“Ongoing political uncertainty raises the prospect of a perpetuation of precautionary saving (at the expense of spending) and postponement in business investment, impacting underlying growth potential,” Stretch said

“The risk of the Brexit process extending towards October 31 risks taking the Bank of England out of the equation in 2019, underlining that for now, ongoing Brexit paralysis favors significant sterling impetus proving to be delayed, if not yet derailed.”

Stretch suggested that a negotiated exit remains the most likely outcome, and although the timing of such an event remains unclear, the tail risks of a hard Brexit remain modest.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-04-23  Authors: elliot smith, sean gallup, getty images news, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, remains, pound, westminster, stretch, risk, strategist, markets, imploding, risks, remain, underplaying, potential, sterling, uk, brexit, weeks


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It’s difficult to make investment calls around Brexit, says BNY Mellon

It’s difficult to make investment calls around Brexit, says BNY Mellon2 Hours AgoJohn Velis of BNY Mellon Markets says it’s been very difficult to ascertain which direction the British pound would move as parliamentary debate on Brexit continues in the U.K.


It’s difficult to make investment calls around Brexit, says BNY Mellon2 Hours AgoJohn Velis of BNY Mellon Markets says it’s been very difficult to ascertain which direction the British pound would move as parliamentary debate on Brexit continues in the U.K.
It’s difficult to make investment calls around Brexit, says BNY Mellon Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-29
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, uk, markets, velis, investment, difficult, bny, pound, calls, mellon2, parliamentary, brexit, mellon


It's difficult to make investment calls around Brexit, says BNY Mellon

It’s difficult to make investment calls around Brexit, says BNY Mellon

2 Hours Ago

John Velis of BNY Mellon Markets says it’s been very difficult to ascertain which direction the British pound would move as parliamentary debate on Brexit continues in the U.K.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-29
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, uk, markets, velis, investment, difficult, bny, pound, calls, mellon2, parliamentary, brexit, mellon


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Why this strategist says the sterling could remain buoyant

Why this strategist says the sterling could remain buoyant4 Hours AgoRodrigo Catril of NAB says there is “clearly no appetite” for a hard Brexit from the U.K. and Europe, which is likely to be good for the pound.


Why this strategist says the sterling could remain buoyant4 Hours AgoRodrigo Catril of NAB says there is “clearly no appetite” for a hard Brexit from the U.K. and Europe, which is likely to be good for the pound.
Why this strategist says the sterling could remain buoyant Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-19
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, strategist, nab, hard, good, uk, hours, buoyant, pound, remain, likely, sterling


Why this strategist says the sterling could remain buoyant

Why this strategist says the sterling could remain buoyant

4 Hours Ago

Rodrigo Catril of NAB says there is “clearly no appetite” for a hard Brexit from the U.K. and Europe, which is likely to be good for the pound.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-19
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, strategist, nab, hard, good, uk, hours, buoyant, pound, remain, likely, sterling


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StanChart: The risk of a hard Brexit seems to be ‘diminishing’

StanChart: The risk of a hard Brexit seems to be ‘diminishing’9 Hours AgoSteven Englander of Standard Chartered Bank says the British pound could have a “disorderly slide” if a hard Brexit looked likely.


StanChart: The risk of a hard Brexit seems to be ‘diminishing’9 Hours AgoSteven Englander of Standard Chartered Bank says the British pound could have a “disorderly slide” if a hard Brexit looked likely.
StanChart: The risk of a hard Brexit seems to be ‘diminishing’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-18
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, brexit, likely, hours, looked, diminishing, hard, standard, stanchart, slide, pound, risk


StanChart: The risk of a hard Brexit seems to be 'diminishing'

StanChart: The risk of a hard Brexit seems to be ‘diminishing’

9 Hours Ago

Steven Englander of Standard Chartered Bank says the British pound could have a “disorderly slide” if a hard Brexit looked likely.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-18
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, brexit, likely, hours, looked, diminishing, hard, standard, stanchart, slide, pound, risk


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Asia markets: Brexit deal, pound and China economic data in focus

Asia Pacific markets traded mixed on Thursday after data showed growth in China’s industrial output fell. Overnight, British lawmakers rejected the idea of leaving the European Union without a Brexit deal in place. The Nikkei 225 in Japan gave up its gains to finish flat at 21,287.02 while the Topix index fell 0.24 percent to 1,588.29. Data on Thursday showed China’s industrial output growth fell to a 17-year low in the first two months of the year, according to Reuters. The on-shore yuan traded


Asia Pacific markets traded mixed on Thursday after data showed growth in China’s industrial output fell. Overnight, British lawmakers rejected the idea of leaving the European Union without a Brexit deal in place. The Nikkei 225 in Japan gave up its gains to finish flat at 21,287.02 while the Topix index fell 0.24 percent to 1,588.29. Data on Thursday showed China’s industrial output growth fell to a 17-year low in the first two months of the year, according to Reuters. The on-shore yuan traded
Asia markets: Brexit deal, pound and China economic data in focus Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-14  Authors: saheli roy choudhury, toshifumi kitamura, afp, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, markets, fell, economic, china, asia, showed, midpoint, data, growth, brexit, focus, deal, traded, pound, output, industrial, chinas, index, yuan


Asia markets: Brexit deal, pound and China economic data in focus

Asia Pacific markets traded mixed on Thursday after data showed growth in China’s industrial output fell. Overnight, British lawmakers rejected the idea of leaving the European Union without a Brexit deal in place.

The Nikkei 225 in Japan gave up its gains to finish flat at 21,287.02 while the Topix index fell 0.24 percent to 1,588.29.

In South Korea, the Kospi wavered between gains and losses to close up 0.34 percent at 2,155.68. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 0.22 percent in afternoon trade.

Chinese mainland shares withdrew as the Shanghai composite fell 1.2 percent to 2,990.68 while the Shenzhen composite tumbled 2.311 percent.

Data on Thursday showed China’s industrial output growth fell to a 17-year low in the first two months of the year, according to Reuters. That further pointed to an economic slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. But investments picked up pace as the government fast-tracked more road and rail projects, the news agency added.

Beijing has already pledged hundreds of billions of dollars in tax cuts and infrastructure spending to support the flagging economy.

The on-shore yuan traded at 6.7134 to the dollar at 2:44 p.m. HK/SIN after the People’s Bank of China set the day’s yuan midpoint at 6.7009. China’s central bank allows the currency exchange rate to rise or fall 2 percent from the midpoint rate.

Australia’s benchmark ASX 200 closed up 0.3 percent at 6,179.60.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-14  Authors: saheli roy choudhury, toshifumi kitamura, afp, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, markets, fell, economic, china, asia, showed, midpoint, data, growth, brexit, focus, deal, traded, pound, output, industrial, chinas, index, yuan


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Sterling rises on Brexit speculation ahead of Theresa May’s crucial vote

Sterling fluctuated Monday with traders reacting to various media reports ahead of a crunch Brexit vote this week. The pound initially fell to a three-week low versus the dollar after a report suggested Prime Minister Theresa May could alter a vote scheduled for Tuesday evening. Sterling slipped to 1.296 against the greenback at around 9:30 a.m. London time after trading near $1.301. By midday London time, the British currency surged again after a May spokesperson confirmed that Tuesday’s vote w


Sterling fluctuated Monday with traders reacting to various media reports ahead of a crunch Brexit vote this week. The pound initially fell to a three-week low versus the dollar after a report suggested Prime Minister Theresa May could alter a vote scheduled for Tuesday evening. Sterling slipped to 1.296 against the greenback at around 9:30 a.m. London time after trading near $1.301. By midday London time, the British currency surged again after a May spokesperson confirmed that Tuesday’s vote w
Sterling rises on Brexit speculation ahead of Theresa May’s crucial vote Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-11  Authors: matt clinch
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, yvette, mays, ahead, vote, uk, wrest, rises, speculation, crucial, report, brexit, pound, theresa, london, sterling


Sterling rises on Brexit speculation ahead of Theresa May's crucial vote

Sterling fluctuated Monday with traders reacting to various media reports ahead of a crunch Brexit vote this week.

The pound initially fell to a three-week low versus the dollar after a report suggested Prime Minister Theresa May could alter a vote scheduled for Tuesday evening. The U.K. leader was expected to hold a second “meaningful” vote on her Brexit withdrawal agreement, after the first back in January saw her plans rejected by a large majority of U.K. lawmakers.

But U.K. newspaper The Sun, a tabloid that is also the most read in the country, said that she is being urged to downgrade the vote to make it purely symbolic. Sterling slipped to 1.296 against the greenback at around 9:30 a.m. London time after trading near $1.301.

Shortly afterwards a pro-Remain lawmaker, Yvette Cooper from the opposition Labour party, said the U.K. Parliament could wrest control of Brexit if May failed to find a consensus with her vote on Tuesday. The pound rose on the comments, pushing back up to $1.300.

By midday London time, the British currency surged again after a May spokesperson confirmed that Tuesday’s vote would be going ahead. Sterling hit a session high of $1.3034. By 2:00 p.m. London time it reached $1.308 with a report that May was traveling to Strasbourg for more last-minute talks with the EU.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-11  Authors: matt clinch
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, yvette, mays, ahead, vote, uk, wrest, rises, speculation, crucial, report, brexit, pound, theresa, london, sterling


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Investor: It is ‘anyone’s guess’ where the pound goes

Investor: It is ‘anyone’s guess’ where the pound goes4 Hours AgoInvestors who are sitting on U.K. assets should be “very concerned” because of the “political crisis” that is Brexit, says Sat Duhra of Janus Henderson Investors.


Investor: It is ‘anyone’s guess’ where the pound goes4 Hours AgoInvestors who are sitting on U.K. assets should be “very concerned” because of the “political crisis” that is Brexit, says Sat Duhra of Janus Henderson Investors.
Investor: It is ‘anyone’s guess’ where the pound goes Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-07
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, guess, uk, sitting, political, henderson, anyones, pound, investors, investor, goes, hours, janus


Investor: It is 'anyone's guess' where the pound goes

Investor: It is ‘anyone’s guess’ where the pound goes

4 Hours Ago

Investors who are sitting on U.K. assets should be “very concerned” because of the “political crisis” that is Brexit, says Sat Duhra of Janus Henderson Investors.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-07
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, guess, uk, sitting, political, henderson, anyones, pound, investors, investor, goes, hours, janus


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Theresa May offers Parliament Brexit delay choice

Sterling’s rally lost some of its momentum on Tuesday after Prime Minister Theresa May offered lawmakers the chance to vote on delaying Brexit, a move investors said would fuel uncertainty in the weeks before Britain is scheduled to exit the EU. May has opened up the possibility of taking a no-deal Brexit — the worst case scenario for sterling — off the table and that has sent the pound surging in recent sessions. It hit a 21-month high against the euro before May spoke and surged to four-month


Sterling’s rally lost some of its momentum on Tuesday after Prime Minister Theresa May offered lawmakers the chance to vote on delaying Brexit, a move investors said would fuel uncertainty in the weeks before Britain is scheduled to exit the EU. May has opened up the possibility of taking a no-deal Brexit — the worst case scenario for sterling — off the table and that has sent the pound surging in recent sessions. It hit a 21-month high against the euro before May spoke and surged to four-month
Theresa May offers Parliament Brexit delay choice Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-26  Authors: reuters tv
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, offers, delay, vote, theresa, nodeal, worst, short, rally, brexit, lawmakers, parliament, weighing, choice, pound


Theresa May offers Parliament Brexit delay choice

Sterling’s rally lost some of its momentum on Tuesday after Prime Minister Theresa May offered lawmakers the chance to vote on delaying Brexit, a move investors said would fuel uncertainty in the weeks before Britain is scheduled to exit the EU.

May has opened up the possibility of taking a no-deal Brexit — the worst case scenario for sterling — off the table and that has sent the pound surging in recent sessions. It hit a 21-month high against the euro before May spoke and surged to four-month peaks versus the dollar.

Speaking to parliament, May said lawmakers could vote on March 14 on a motion requesting a “short, limited extension” Brexit delay if they rejected her Brexit deal on March 12.

“The bit about the “short delay” is what is weighing on markets but then some of it is also profit-taking after the rally we have seen in the pound since the last few days,” said a trader at a European bank in London.

Sterling had soared past $1.32 earlier on Tuesday, hitting its highest level since October following media reports that May would rule out a no-deal Brexit.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-26  Authors: reuters tv
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, offers, delay, vote, theresa, nodeal, worst, short, rally, brexit, lawmakers, parliament, weighing, choice, pound


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Why this strategist expects the British pound to rise

Why this strategist expects the British pound to rise2 Hours AgoMarc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex says the market is pricing in a delay in the Brexit deadline which, in turn, may see the U.K.’s Labour Party endorsing a second referendum. He says there’s room for the pound to appreciate because the market sees a second vote as a possibility that Britain may not leave the European Union.


Why this strategist expects the British pound to rise2 Hours AgoMarc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex says the market is pricing in a delay in the Brexit deadline which, in turn, may see the U.K.’s Labour Party endorsing a second referendum. He says there’s room for the pound to appreciate because the market sees a second vote as a possibility that Britain may not leave the European Union.
Why this strategist expects the British pound to rise Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-25
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, british, turn, theres, vote, sees, rise, pound, union, market, strategist, uks, expects, second


Why this strategist expects the British pound to rise

Why this strategist expects the British pound to rise

2 Hours Ago

Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex says the market is pricing in a delay in the Brexit deadline which, in turn, may see the U.K.’s Labour Party endorsing a second referendum. He says there’s room for the pound to appreciate because the market sees a second vote as a possibility that Britain may not leave the European Union.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-25
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, british, turn, theres, vote, sees, rise, pound, union, market, strategist, uks, expects, second


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A real Labour split isn’t automatically good for the pound

Investors predicting a sterling rally if there’s a full-blown split in the U.K.’s opposition party are likely to be sorely mistaken. The U.K.’s Labour party has leaned increasingly to the left since veteran politician Jeremy Corbyn took the reins in 2015. Many currency experts have warned on his policies, saying they fear a Labour government would be more negative for sterling than any disastrous Brexit outcome. Seven Labour lawmakers (out of 256) split from the party on Monday citing its direct


Investors predicting a sterling rally if there’s a full-blown split in the U.K.’s opposition party are likely to be sorely mistaken. The U.K.’s Labour party has leaned increasingly to the left since veteran politician Jeremy Corbyn took the reins in 2015. Many currency experts have warned on his policies, saying they fear a Labour government would be more negative for sterling than any disastrous Brexit outcome. Seven Labour lawmakers (out of 256) split from the party on Monday citing its direct
A real Labour split isn’t automatically good for the pound Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-19  Authors: matt clinch, jeff j mitchell, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, automatically, gbp, real, labour, split, isnt, brexit, pound, election, sterling, snap, mean, party, good, uks


A real Labour split isn't automatically good for the pound

Investors predicting a sterling rally if there’s a full-blown split in the U.K.’s opposition party are likely to be sorely mistaken.

The U.K.’s Labour party has leaned increasingly to the left since veteran politician Jeremy Corbyn took the reins in 2015. Many currency experts have warned on his policies, saying they fear a Labour government would be more negative for sterling than any disastrous Brexit outcome.

Seven Labour lawmakers (out of 256) split from the party on Monday citing its direction on Brexit, as well as a failure to address anti-Semitism in its ranks. There is now natural speculation that more could follow, ripping a gaping hole in the U.K.’s second-largest party.

While this might diminish Corbyn’s chances of being prime minister, a sterling surge is not guaranteed.

“Perhaps at the margin you could argue it’s GBP positive … But a Labour split would not necessarily mean that a single party has a chance of forming a stable government in the event of a snap election, and that is also a factor GBP bulls need to be wary of,” Stephen Gallo, the European head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets, told CNBC via email.

Gallo’s hypothetical argument is that a snap election this year — if the Brexit negotiations are indeed prolonged — could also mean a split in the Conservative Party with its own Brexit rebels showing frustration at the current management.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-19  Authors: matt clinch, jeff j mitchell, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, automatically, gbp, real, labour, split, isnt, brexit, pound, election, sterling, snap, mean, party, good, uks


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