Cramer: Betting on the Fed to cut interest rates is ‘very risky,’ charts show

Stock traders speculating that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year could be making a “very risky bet,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday. Cramer perused Fed Funds Futures analysis by Carley Garner, co-founder of the DeCarley Trading futures brokerage firm. Fed Funds Futures financial contracts are used to predict changes in short-term interest rates. The index shows an 80% chance of at least one rate cut, while a handful of traders are expecting as many as three, he said. “Remembe


Stock traders speculating that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year could be making a “very risky bet,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday. Cramer perused Fed Funds Futures analysis by Carley Garner, co-founder of the DeCarley Trading futures brokerage firm. Fed Funds Futures financial contracts are used to predict changes in short-term interest rates. The index shows an 80% chance of at least one rate cut, while a handful of traders are expecting as many as three, he said. “Remembe
Cramer: Betting on the Fed to cut interest rates is ‘very risky,’ charts show Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-28  Authors: tyler clifford
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, futures, charts, resistance, interest, risky, rates, cut, right, thinks, way, fed, rate, betting, garner, cramer


Cramer: Betting on the Fed to cut interest rates is 'very risky,' charts show

Stock traders speculating that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year could be making a “very risky bet,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday.

Cramer perused Fed Funds Futures analysis by Carley Garner, co-founder of the DeCarley Trading futures brokerage firm. Fed Funds Futures financial contracts are used to predict changes in short-term interest rates.

“The charts, in a completely contrarian way as interpreted by Carley Garner, suggest that a lot of people are anticipating a more lenient Fed,” the “Mad Money” host said. “And I don’t think the Fed will go there unless the economy gets substantially worse from here, although that’s always a possibility given the big-picture data has gotten a heck of a lot weaker over the past few months.”

Speculators are banking on one or two rate cuts this year, Garner says. The futures market is forecasting that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will begin reducing the benchmark rate — currently between 2.25% and 2.5% — to 2% in the next six months, Cramer added.

A futures recording just shy of current levels would mean that investors expect the Fed to maintain its current monetary fiscal policy, Cramer said. The index shows an 80% chance of at least one rate cut, while a handful of traders are expecting as many as three, he said.

Attempting to game the Fed tends to leave investors “disappointed,” Cramer said. Garner contends that the Fed may institute a multi-year pause, he said. It’s important to be aware that there’s a powerful ceiling of resistance between current levels and levels that would indicate rate cuts.

A futures and options broker, Garner is the author of “Higher Probability Commodity Trading.”

“If Garner’s right, the December futures contract should drift back to where it was trading at the beginning of the year,” Cramer said. “Remember, right now this thing is baking in more than one rate cut and that seems way too optimistic for here.”

Meanwhile, bonds are nearing multi-year highs. That means yields are nearing multi-year lows. The Fed has minimal impact on long-term interest rates, but “there’s still some correlation,” Cramer said.

The long-term bond ETF has a “powerful” ceiling of resistance at $129 and Garner thinks it could slip below $125 and potentially as low as $118 if it fails to hold, Cramer said.

“As far as Garner’s concerned, this chart is bad news for the bulls,” he said. “It suggests that treasury prices are poised to go back down, meaning yields will go up, meaning more rate cuts might not be on the menu.”

Speculators are expecting the economy to get worse in order to trigger the Fed to cut rates, but the weekly chart of the S&P 500 is not showing evidence that that could happen, according to Garner.

If the index were to be tested at 2,725 and even slide to about 2,650, she argues that would open a buying opportunity.

“If she’s right about the Fed, then she thinks the path of least resistance for stocks will be higher, as investors regain their confidence,” Cramer said. “Garner wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P can work its way to 3,030, nirvana, which is why she thinks any pullback to the 2,600s would mean that you have to sit there and buy, buy, buy.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-28  Authors: tyler clifford
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, futures, charts, resistance, interest, risky, rates, cut, right, thinks, way, fed, rate, betting, garner, cramer


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Crude could drop to $52 as global pressures persist, says top technical analyst

Overall, this year has been choppy for prices, which are often tied to global macroeconomic developments such as the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Now that they have, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settling just above $59 on Tuesday, “obviously, the upside is limited,” said Yamada, who founded and runs Yamada Technical Research Advisors. You can see where it encountered resistance, right at the resistance from the 2018 peak,” she said. However, the weekly momentum is right on the verge


Overall, this year has been choppy for prices, which are often tied to global macroeconomic developments such as the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Now that they have, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settling just above $59 on Tuesday, “obviously, the upside is limited,” said Yamada, who founded and runs Yamada Technical Research Advisors. You can see where it encountered resistance, right at the resistance from the 2018 peak,” she said. However, the weekly momentum is right on the verge
Crude could drop to $52 as global pressures persist, says top technical analyst Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-28  Authors: lizzy gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trading, analyst, resistance, momentum, 52, persist, crude, weekly, technical, right, range, sector, prices, technician, drop, pressures, global, yamada


Crude could drop to $52 as global pressures persist, says top technical analyst

The energy market may be in for more pain.

Crude oil prices had their worst weekly performance of 2019 last week, catching some reprieve on Tuesday as flooding in the Midwestern United States restricted supply from several key distribution centers. Overall, this year has been choppy for prices, which are often tied to global macroeconomic developments such as the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

And there could be more weakness ahead for the commodity, warns top technician Louise Yamada, who predicted in April that the crude rally would stop if prices broke below the $60 level.

Now that they have, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settling just above $59 on Tuesday, “obviously, the upside is limited,” said Yamada, who founded and runs Yamada Technical Research Advisors.

“It’s intriguing if you look at the chart. You can see where it encountered resistance, right at the resistance from the 2018 peak,” she said. “Now, it looks as though things have broken down, and you’re possibly in a trading range between [$]52, where the … 200-week moving average is, and [$]62, which is now our resistance having broken as a support level.”

That could lead to some sideways trading within that range, but will eventually give way to a few concerning momentum trends that seem to be coming to a fore, Yamada said.

“You could have some interim trading. However, the weekly momentum is right on the verge of going negative, which suggests further downside, and the monthly momentum … has been on a sell for quite some time,” the technician said. “So, at the moment, I think the path of least resistance may be to lower levels.”

If oil prices break below last week’s low around $57, Yamada’s more conservative downside targets would be around $55 or $54 a barrel.

“But $52 would be a target, let’s say, if this continued decline is without bounces,” she warned, pointing out that her firm’s outlook is still relatively bleak given oil’s inability to break above a downtrend from the 2008 peak for the last 10 years.

“It does appear to us that we’ve got some kind of a problem with energy,” Yamada said. “The relative strength on the sector has been very poor. It broke down in 2014 structurally, and nothing has changed to improve our view of the sector, the stocks or the commodity.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-28  Authors: lizzy gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trading, analyst, resistance, momentum, 52, persist, crude, weekly, technical, right, range, sector, prices, technician, drop, pressures, global, yamada


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Watch out below as Tesla breaks key support, MKM analyst says

“Any time you have major support that breaks, the next key is you have to look for where’s the next downside level,” O’Hara said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation. ” “We see some support at $215, but there’s really not major support until $185, so that’s some big downside right here.” “We think the downside risks far outweigh any sort of oversold bounce because, again, broken support turns to new resistance. So we have major resistance at $250 now, with the next support on the downside at $185,


“Any time you have major support that breaks, the next key is you have to look for where’s the next downside level,” O’Hara said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation. ” “We see some support at $215, but there’s really not major support until $185, so that’s some big downside right here.” “We think the downside risks far outweigh any sort of oversold bounce because, again, broken support turns to new resistance. So we have major resistance at $250 now, with the next support on the downside at $185,
Watch out below as Tesla breaks key support, MKM analyst says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-17  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 185, target, analyst, mkm, resistance, stock, think, downside, breaks, major, watch, tesla, ohara, support, key


Watch out below as Tesla breaks key support, MKM analyst says

Tesla is swerving lower again Friday.

Its stock is falling and now down 8% this week after a third fatal crash involving its autopilot function embroiled the electric carmaker in bad press. Those losses added to a 34% slump in 2019, putting it on track to post its worst annual drop ever.

Wall Street is turning on the stock too. Just this month, Tesla has received 12 analyst price target cuts. Evercore, for example, reduced its price target to $200 “on valuation and lower delivery estimates across all models.”

MKM Partners’ JC O’Hara agrees that the stock could have further to fall.

“Any time you have major support that breaks, the next key is you have to look for where’s the next downside level,” O’Hara said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation. ” “We see some support at $215, but there’s really not major support until $185, so that’s some big downside right here.”

Tesla is less than 2% from that $215 level. A decline to $185 would mark a 15% drop.

“We think the downside risks far outweigh any sort of oversold bounce because, again, broken support turns to new resistance. So we have major resistance at $250 now, with the next support on the downside at $185,” said O’Hara. “This is a chart we just want to avoid altogether.”

Tesla broke and closed below $250 in late April for the first time since March 2017.

John Petrides of Point View Wealth Management says while the stock is coming down from “ridiculously high” levels, operational headwinds remain for the company.

“The company has been unable to show sustainable cash-flow generation. They have balance-sheet issues. You have board members that are not seeking reelection, key members of the team are leaving, [CEO] Elon Musk is a wildcard, competition in the e-car market is coming on board,” he said during the same segment. “The stock and the company is a mess, and I think this stock could fall lower.”

Tesla had not responded to a request for comment by time of publication.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-17  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 185, target, analyst, mkm, resistance, stock, think, downside, breaks, major, watch, tesla, ohara, support, key


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Chart analysts like chances for a big rally after S&P 500 forms ‘inverse head-and-shoulders’

Stocks are on a roll this year and a chart pattern in the S&P 500 could signal further gains for Wall Street. The S&P 500 formed an “inverse head-and-shoulders” pattern over the past three weeks as it broke above key levels and inched closer to its record high from Sept. 21. The S&P 500 then surged from that level and has closed above 2,800 for five straight sessions. It’s acted as a resistance level at times and support as well.” He also said this pattern is pattern “is not just specific to the


Stocks are on a roll this year and a chart pattern in the S&P 500 could signal further gains for Wall Street. The S&P 500 formed an “inverse head-and-shoulders” pattern over the past three weeks as it broke above key levels and inched closer to its record high from Sept. 21. The S&P 500 then surged from that level and has closed above 2,800 for five straight sessions. It’s acted as a resistance level at times and support as well.” He also said this pattern is pattern “is not just specific to the
Chart analysts like chances for a big rally after S&P 500 forms ‘inverse head-and-shoulders’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-20  Authors: fred imbert, brendan mcdermid
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 500, 2800, level, headandshoulders, pattern, index, surged, forms, inverse, sp, chances, analysts, chart, rally, resistance, past, sectors, big


Chart analysts like chances for a big rally after S&P 500 forms 'inverse head-and-shoulders'

Stocks are on a roll this year and a chart pattern in the S&P 500 could signal further gains for Wall Street.

The S&P 500 formed an “inverse head-and-shoulders” pattern over the past three weeks as it broke above key levels and inched closer to its record high from Sept. 21. An inverse head and shoulders pattern is used by chart analysts as a sign that a stock or an index could rise further after forming a bottom.

The index tried to break above 2,800 — a closely watched resistance level by traders and technicians — twice between late February and early March before sliding back down to around 2,730 by March 8. The S&P 500 then surged from that level and has closed above 2,800 for five straight sessions.

“This has been building since the comeback started,” said Frank Cappelleri, executive director at Instinet. “We didn’t know how fierce it was going to be and the extent of it. But needless to say 2,800 is on a lot of screens for numerous reasons. It’s acted as a resistance level at times and support as well.”

Cappelleri added the recent formation is part of a bigger head-and-shoulders pattern that has been forming since last October.

He also said this pattern is pattern “is not just specific to the S&P 500. It’s seen in a lot of different places. Some areas are leading; some are lagging, but in general the shape that has developed over the past six months.”

The S&P 500 is down more than 2.5 percent over the past six months, but it is up more than 20 percent since bottoming in late December. The index closed at 2,832.57 on Tuesday, about 3.7 percent away from its all-time high of 2,940.91.

Stocks are not completely out of the woods yet, however. The utilities and real estate sectors — which are often referred to as bond proxies for their low volatility compared to other parts of the market — are the best performers over the past six months.

“I don’t know if that type of leadership can continue if this risk-on mentality continues as it is,” Cappelleri said. However, “they haven’t had to advance as much from the lows since they didn’t get as beat up on the way down. What we want to see is if other sectors can take the baton.”

The S&P 500 is up more than 12 percent so far this year and is on pace for its biggest one-year gain since 2017, when it surged 19.4 percent.

Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-20  Authors: fred imbert, brendan mcdermid
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 500, 2800, level, headandshoulders, pattern, index, surged, forms, inverse, sp, chances, analysts, chart, rally, resistance, past, sectors, big


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Warren Buffett says there’s ‘enormous resistance to change’ healthcare

Complacency will make fixing the nation’s health-care system a daunting task, according to Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway recently joined with J.P. Morgan Chase and Amazon to develop a new model for their 1 million employees. Buffett along with Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and J.P. Morgan’s Jamie Dimon recently formed the health-care joint venture Haven to figure out how to deliver better health care at a lower cost. One of the problems with the current system, Buffett said in an interview for


Complacency will make fixing the nation’s health-care system a daunting task, according to Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway recently joined with J.P. Morgan Chase and Amazon to develop a new model for their 1 million employees. Buffett along with Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and J.P. Morgan’s Jamie Dimon recently formed the health-care joint venture Haven to figure out how to deliver better health care at a lower cost. One of the problems with the current system, Buffett said in an interview for
Warren Buffett says there’s ‘enormous resistance to change’ healthcare Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-18  Authors: liz moyer, david a grogan, cnbc, jaden urbi
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, buffett, change, healthcare, resistance, system, current, recently, warren, jp, weve, model, theres, worse, enormous


Warren Buffett says there's 'enormous resistance to change' healthcare

Complacency will make fixing the nation’s health-care system a daunting task, according to Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway recently joined with J.P. Morgan Chase and Amazon to develop a new model for their 1 million employees.

Buffett along with Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and J.P. Morgan’s Jamie Dimon recently formed the health-care joint venture Haven to figure out how to deliver better health care at a lower cost. One of the problems with the current system, Buffett said in an interview for Yahoo Finance, is that health-care providers and others entrenched in the current model don’t have any incentive to change things.

“We have a $3.4 trillion industry, which is as much as the federal government raises every year, that basically feels pretty good about the system,” Buffett said. “There’s enormous resistance to change while a similar acknowledgement that change will be needed. And of course if the private sector doesn’t supply that over a period of time, people will say ‘we give up, we’ve got to turn this over to the government,’ which will probably be even worse.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-18  Authors: liz moyer, david a grogan, cnbc, jaden urbi
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, buffett, change, healthcare, resistance, system, current, recently, warren, jp, weve, model, theres, worse, enormous


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Now that the market has broken through key resistance, here’s what’s next

The S&P 500 closed up 2.9 percent for the week, its best so far this year. It’s now at the highest level since early October, after breaking through key resistance levels near 2815, where it failed several times. The S&P 500 tends to be lower in the week after quadruple witching. First-quarter earnings are now expected to be down 1.5 percent for the S&P 500, according to Refinitiv. The two key names next week are Micron and Federal Express, which are both scheduled to report earnings.


The S&P 500 closed up 2.9 percent for the week, its best so far this year. It’s now at the highest level since early October, after breaking through key resistance levels near 2815, where it failed several times. The S&P 500 tends to be lower in the week after quadruple witching. First-quarter earnings are now expected to be down 1.5 percent for the S&P 500, according to Refinitiv. The two key names next week are Micron and Federal Express, which are both scheduled to report earnings.
Now that the market has broken through key resistance, here’s what’s next Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-15  Authors: bob pisani, brendan mcdermid
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, heres, resistance, broken, 500, volatility, market, earnings, whats, stock, week, near, sp, rally, quarter, key


Now that the market has broken through key resistance, here's what's next

The S&P 500 closed up 2.9 percent for the week, its best so far this year. It’s now at the highest level since early October, after breaking through key resistance levels near 2815, where it failed several times.

The S&P is now less than 4 percent from the old historic closing high (2,930 on September 20).

Key observations:

1) Traders increasingly believe global central banks have their backs.

2) With the CBOE Volatility Index at 12, its lowest level since October, strategies driven by volatility would likely add to stock exposure.

3) Bond yields continue to drop, remaining near the lows of the year. The new-high list this week was littered with interest-rate sensitive stocks (utilities, REITs) that rally when rates remain low.

4) Quadruple witching (quarterly expiration of index options and futures, and stock options and futures) has added a lot of volume this week and likely contributed to the upside rally. But the question is whether the expiration exhaust near term demand. The S&P 500 tends to be lower in the week after quadruple witching.

5) Europe (and the U.K.) have outperformed the U.S. this month. There are some hopes for a bottom in the recent poor economic data.

6) Downward earnings revisions are slowing to a crawl. The rate of downward earnings revision for the first quarter was intense from January into mid-February, slowed in the next several weeks and has essentially stopped this week. First-quarter earnings are now expected to be down 1.5 percent for the S&P 500, according to Refinitiv. If it stays in that range, there is a good chance earnings will be positive for the first quarter (companies tend to beat analyst estimates), and we will avoid an earnings “recession,” at least one that began in the first quarter.

7) The key to a further rally: positive comments on global growth. The two key names next week are Micron and Federal Express, which are both scheduled to report earnings. Both had big drops last quarter and saw lower earnings estimates on concerns over China and (for Micron) increasing competition.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-15  Authors: bob pisani, brendan mcdermid
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, heres, resistance, broken, 500, volatility, market, earnings, whats, stock, week, near, sp, rally, quarter, key


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Here’s the key level Amazon needs to break to retake $2,000

Amazon’s stock is up against a key resistance level as it tries to rally back to record highs, and one technical analyst says the odds are in favor of Amazon breaking that barrier. Ari Wald, head of technical analysis for Oppenheimer, said Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” that Amazon is on track to break above a $1,770 level of resistance. It closed on Monday at $1,696.17, up 1.46 percent, after Evercore ISI raised its price target. That, combined with Amazon’s stock pushing above its 100-day m


Amazon’s stock is up against a key resistance level as it tries to rally back to record highs, and one technical analyst says the odds are in favor of Amazon breaking that barrier. Ari Wald, head of technical analysis for Oppenheimer, said Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” that Amazon is on track to break above a $1,770 level of resistance. It closed on Monday at $1,696.17, up 1.46 percent, after Evercore ISI raised its price target. That, combined with Amazon’s stock pushing above its 100-day m
Here’s the key level Amazon needs to break to retake $2,000 Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-05  Authors: lizzy gurdus, luke sharrett, bloomberg, getty images, brendan mcdermid, adam jeffery, alex wong, kcna, thomas barwick getty images, source
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wald, key, technical, resistance, needs, trading, think, amazon, retake, stock, level, heres, break, 2000, amazons, stocks


Here's the key level Amazon needs to break to retake $2,000

Amazon’s stock is up against a key resistance level as it tries to rally back to record highs, and one technical analyst says the odds are in favor of Amazon breaking that barrier.

Ari Wald, head of technical analysis for Oppenheimer, said Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” that Amazon is on track to break above a $1,770 level of resistance. It closed on Monday at $1,696.17, up 1.46 percent, after Evercore ISI raised its price target.

That, combined with Amazon’s stock pushing above its 100-day moving average, should create the necessary momentum to send shares soaring, possibly even back to the monumental $2,000 level they first grazed in August, Wald said. Technicians often use stocks’ long-term moving averages as indicators for where prices are headed.

“We’re bullish on Amazon,” he said. “Over about the last five months, it’s underperformed. We’re seeing that weakness start to abate, so I think the road to recovery is higher. … I think, as long as you’re above [the] $1,600 support [level] — those were the recent lows — I think it’s more likely that this breaks to the upside, above $1,770 resistance, and we see a resumption of the stock’s long-term uptrend.”

Chantico Global CEO Gina Sanchez said that while broad-based pressure on cloud stocks was partly to blame for Amazon’s recent underperformance, the cloud could also be the stock’s saving grace.

“I do actually think that that’s really what’s going to continue to push Amazon up, … the AWS side of their business,” she said, referring to the e-commerce giant’s lucrative Amazon Web Services arm.

“But the rest of the business is continuing to, quite frankly, pose a huge challenge to bricks-and-mortar buying, and I think that that continues as well,” Sanchez said on “Trading Nation.” “So we actually do see some support for Amazon here.”

Amazon shares are up 30 percent from the December low and 13 percent this year. On Monday, Evercore ISI analyst Anthony DiClemente placed a $1,965 price target on the stock, up from $1,800, arguing that it looked cheap at its current levels based on what he saw as a more accurate metric for the company: gross profit growth.

Disclosure: Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. makes a market in the securities of AMZN.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-05  Authors: lizzy gurdus, luke sharrett, bloomberg, getty images, brendan mcdermid, adam jeffery, alex wong, kcna, thomas barwick getty images, source
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wald, key, technical, resistance, needs, trading, think, amazon, retake, stock, level, heres, break, 2000, amazons, stocks


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Don’t believe the bounce, stocks are heading back to December lows, strategist says

One market watcher says don’t believe the recovery — stocks are heading back to their December lows. We have risk/reward here, I believe, that’s fantastic on the short side,” he said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” But some are more optimistic and believe there’s solid support for the S&P to move higher at least in the short-term. So a break below that level … that’s going to be something more to unfold,” he said. The 2,615 level is about 3 percent lower than where the S&P 500 closed on Frida


One market watcher says don’t believe the recovery — stocks are heading back to their December lows. We have risk/reward here, I believe, that’s fantastic on the short side,” he said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” But some are more optimistic and believe there’s solid support for the S&P to move higher at least in the short-term. So a break below that level … that’s going to be something more to unfold,” he said. The 2,615 level is about 3 percent lower than where the S&P 500 closed on Frida
Don’t believe the bounce, stocks are heading back to December lows, strategist says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-11  Authors: pippa stevens, carlo allegri, bryan r smith, afp, getty images, george frey, bloomberg, adam jeffery, kcna, thomas barwick getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, believe, lows, strategist, thats, bounce, dont, stocks, sp, 2615, support, resistance, level, short, heading, theres


Don't believe the bounce, stocks are heading back to December lows, strategist says

Stocks started the year on a strong note, and it seemed like December and its steep sell-off was firmly in the rear-view mirror.

But that notion was put to the test on Friday. The Dow posted its third straight negative session — its longest losing streak of the year — although the index did post its seventh consecutive week of gains. The S&P managed to eke out a small gain of 0.07 percent on Friday after spending much of the day in the red, and after falling the prior two days. Fears about U.S.-China trade negotiations as well as slowing economic growth continued to weigh on markets throughout the week.

One market watcher says don’t believe the recovery — stocks are heading back to their December lows.

Joule Financial’s Quint Tatro sees 2,800 as a key level of overhead resistance for the S&P 500, and until the index can once again reach that level, he believes there will be more losses.

“The opportunity has been to sell into this rally, or if you’re aggressive, short. We have risk/reward here, I believe, that’s fantastic on the short side,” he said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

He said several stocks, including Alphabet, Amazon, and JPMorgan, are “reversing at key levels,” which leads him to believe that the recent recovery in stocks was a bounce “within a bigger bear trend, and not a new bull market.”

But some are more optimistic and believe there’s solid support for the S&P to move higher at least in the short-term. Piper Jaffray’s Craig Johnson says investors should use dips as a buying opportunity since stocks aren’t headed toward a major pullback.

“[A]s I look at the charts, we came right up to the 200-day moving average. We paused at that level. Now as we correct back the level, we need to be watching is 2,615,” he said Friday. “There’s a lot of support that comes into play there from the October/November lows, and also at the 50-day moving average and also the downward resistance line which will now be support. So a break below that level … that’s going to be something more to unfold,” he said.

The 2,615 level is about 3 percent lower than where the S&P 500 closed on Friday. It was at 2,716 in Monday’s premarket.

While Johnson believes it’s safe to “buy the dip as long as we stay above” 2,615, he is expecting a “market that will be largely range bound for the year.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-11  Authors: pippa stevens, carlo allegri, bryan r smith, afp, getty images, george frey, bloomberg, adam jeffery, kcna, thomas barwick getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, believe, lows, strategist, thats, bounce, dont, stocks, sp, 2615, support, resistance, level, short, heading, theres


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Cramer: Charts reveal ‘serious’ hurdles facing chipmakers’ stocks

But for that to happen, there are “major hurdles” the SMH needs to top before the semiconductor stocks can continue their rally, Cramer said. “Perhaps the biggest hurdle has to do with the Fibonacci timing cycles,” Cramer said. “In December, when we were getting crushed, a cluster of timing cycles was good news. But now that the SMH has been rallying, a bunch of these Fibonacci timing cycles could mean that this semiconductor index is about to pull back. And Boroden points out that we do have a


But for that to happen, there are “major hurdles” the SMH needs to top before the semiconductor stocks can continue their rally, Cramer said. “Perhaps the biggest hurdle has to do with the Fibonacci timing cycles,” Cramer said. “In December, when we were getting crushed, a cluster of timing cycles was good news. But now that the SMH has been rallying, a bunch of these Fibonacci timing cycles could mean that this semiconductor index is about to pull back. And Boroden points out that we do have a
Cramer: Charts reveal ‘serious’ hurdles facing chipmakers’ stocks Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-29  Authors: elizabeth gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, hurdles, chipmakers, fibonacci, timing, cramer, facing, serious, smh, boroden, week, rally, index, cycles, resistance, stocks, reveal, charts


Cramer: Charts reveal 'serious' hurdles facing chipmakers' stocks

One of the market’s top semiconductor-based exchange-traded funds is signaling some obstacles ahead for the chipmakers’ stocks, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday after consulting with one of his favorite chartists.

The chartist, Carolyn Boroden — the brain behind FibonacciQueen.com and one of Cramer’s RealMoney.com colleagues — has a unique methodology. She uses Fibonacci ratios, a number series discovered by medieval mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci that repeats throughout nature, to spot patterns in the stock market.

Specifically, she measures past swings in a stock or an index, then runs them through a Fibonacci prism. When she does this with a chart’s Y-axis, price, it shows her potential levels of support or resistance. When she uses the X-axis, time, it flags particular times when a stock is most likely to change course.

So, with investors fretting about weakness at longtime industry stalwart Nvidia, Cramer and Boroden found it worth circling back to the chipmaking group via the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF, also known as the SMH.

And, based on Boroden’s analysis, “the SMH needs to run a series of gauntlets if it’s going to keep climbing here,” Cramer said on “Mad Money.” “First, the semis need to get through this week without experiencing a serious reversal. […] Then, the SMH needs to rally $3 to $7 bucks to clear its two ceilings of resistance. If it can do that, then Boroden believes the semis will be able to keep climbing. [But] that’s a mighty big if.”

Here’s how they reached that conclusion:

First, Cramer called attention to one of Boroden’s recent successful predictions: when the SMH bottomed in late December around $80, it touched a floor of support “created by a cluster of Fibonacci price relationships” between $79 and $81, as well as a confluence of timing cycles that suggested the index was due for a bounce, he explained.

Now, Boroden sees potential for more upside. Her methodology suggested that the roughly $94 fund could vault to $123 and change or even $135, which would constitute a 31 to 44 percent move. But for that to happen, there are “major hurdles” the SMH needs to top before the semiconductor stocks can continue their rally, Cramer said.

The first two hurdles have to do with symmetry, the idea that stocks or indices tend to rally the same dollar amount during sustained moves. Boroden noted that the when the SMH last saw a sustained rally in May, it climbed $16.53. Now, it has already bounced more than $16 from its December lows, which could mean that the rally might soon peter out at the SMH’s $97 ceiling of resistance.

But even if it trades above $97, the index has another ceiling of resistance at $101. Boroden said the SMH could hit that level if it retraces its rally from February of $20.67. But even with that, it won’t be smooth sailing yet, she told Cramer.

“Perhaps the biggest hurdle has to do with the Fibonacci timing cycles,” Cramer said. “In December, when we were getting crushed, a cluster of timing cycles was good news. But now that the SMH has been rallying, a bunch of these Fibonacci timing cycles could mean that this semiconductor index is about to pull back. And Boroden points out that we do have a bunch of these timing cycles com[ing] due … between today and Friday.”

All in all, Boroden sees the SMH approaching “some serious resistance this week” as the tidal wave of earnings reports continues to sweep across Wall Street, Cramer said.

“If the semis can make it to the end of this week without rolling over, she says that would be a good sign and the upside could be significant, but there’s also a decent chance the group will get slammed and retest its December low,” the “Mad Money” host concluded. “At least you know what the technical levels are to look for.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-29  Authors: elizabeth gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, hurdles, chipmakers, fibonacci, timing, cramer, facing, serious, smh, boroden, week, rally, index, cycles, resistance, stocks, reveal, charts


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Three reasons the market has moved ‘too far, too fast,’ according to one technical analyst

Trader says the market has gone ‘too far, too fast’ 16 Hours Ago | 05:54With the S&P 500 back in correction territory on Tuesday, one trader says this could be a sign of trouble to come for the market. First, Gordon points out a “shelf” that has formed in the S&P 500 with support at around the 2,650 level, which the index has tested a few times. Gordon says this support level has now become resistance for the S&P. He notes that the S&P 500 is trading 4 percent below its 200-day moving average, p


Trader says the market has gone ‘too far, too fast’ 16 Hours Ago | 05:54With the S&P 500 back in correction territory on Tuesday, one trader says this could be a sign of trouble to come for the market. First, Gordon points out a “shelf” that has formed in the S&P 500 with support at around the 2,650 level, which the index has tested a few times. Gordon says this support level has now become resistance for the S&P. He notes that the S&P 500 is trading 4 percent below its 200-day moving average, p
Three reasons the market has moved ‘too far, too fast,’ according to one technical analyst Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-22  Authors: annie pei, billy hc kwok, bloomberg, getty images, gari garaialde, spencer platt, getty images news, akio kon, kcna, thomas barwick getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, according, analyst, gordon, level, support, result, moved, reasons, spy, fast, 500, resistance, trader, sp, far, market, technical


Three reasons the market has moved 'too far, too fast,' according to one technical analyst

Trader says the market has gone ‘too far, too fast’ 16 Hours Ago | 05:54

With the S&P 500 back in correction territory on Tuesday, one trader says this could be a sign of trouble to come for the market.

Todd Gordon of TradingAnalysis.com said that while stocks have seen a “nice bounce” off the December lows — the S&P is up 12 percent since the Christmas Eve bottom — “the move has come too far, too fast.”

First, Gordon points out a “shelf” that has formed in the S&P 500 with support at around the 2,650 level, which the index has tested a few times. Gordon says this support level has now become resistance for the S&P.

Second is the index’s long-term moving average. He notes that the S&P 500 is trading 4 percent below its 200-day moving average, proving that the trend is in fact broken.

Finally, Gordon points out that the 2,650 level is the new resistance, as the S&P has actually retraced half its losses, which he thinks could result in some profit-taking or short money entering the market.

As a result, Gordon wants to buy the March monthly 255-strike put and sell the March monthly 250-strike put in SPY, the S&P 500-tracking ETF, for the cost of $96 per options spread. If SPY were to close below $250 on March 15 expiration, Gordon could make just over $400 on the trade. If SPY were to close above $255, then Gordon would lose the $96 he paid to make the trade.

So far this year, the S&P 500 is up almost 5 percent.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-22  Authors: annie pei, billy hc kwok, bloomberg, getty images, gari garaialde, spencer platt, getty images news, akio kon, kcna, thomas barwick getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, according, analyst, gordon, level, support, result, moved, reasons, spy, fast, 500, resistance, trader, sp, far, market, technical


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