For first time since sell-off, Ned Davis Research is bullish on growth

For the first time since the sell-off, the Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist is favoring growth over value stocks. Now, we’re back into growth,” Clissold said Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” The earnings slowdown could create downward pressure when first-quarter earnings season starts next month, according to Clissold. He also lists a global slowdown and overly bullish sentiment as potential catalysts for a major setback. The S&P 500 closed the week up 3 percent and is now up more than


For the first time since the sell-off, the Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist is favoring growth over value stocks. Now, we’re back into growth,” Clissold said Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” The earnings slowdown could create downward pressure when first-quarter earnings season starts next month, according to Clissold. He also lists a global slowdown and overly bullish sentiment as potential catalysts for a major setback. The S&P 500 closed the week up 3 percent and is now up more than
For first time since sell-off, Ned Davis Research is bullish on growth Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-17  Authors: stephanie landsman, getty images, anthony wallace, afp, chris goodney, bloomberg, david a grogan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, sentiment, months, lows, month, selloff, research, sp, davis, ned, clissold, slowdown, bullish, usually, thats, growth


For first time since sell-off, Ned Davis Research is bullish on growth

Market watcher Ed Clissold, who called the December plunge, is shifting his 2019 strategy.

For the first time since the sell-off, the Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist is favoring growth over value stocks.

“[We] went neutral for a few months. Now, we’re back into growth,” Clissold said Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” “When you have this sluggish economic environment like we have … investors are going to flock to the few companies which can deliver, and by definition, those are growth stocks.”

But his new game plan doesn’t mean stocks are in the clear. Clissold isn’t ruling out another meaningful sell-off.

“We’ve had a great run since the December lows almost uninterrupted. Usually, you get some sort of pullback after a big bottom like that,” he said. “It usually happens around a month after the lows. So, we’re a little bit late for that.”

The earnings slowdown could create downward pressure when first-quarter earnings season starts next month, according to Clissold. He also lists a global slowdown and overly bullish sentiment as potential catalysts for a major setback.

“If you look within six months after a low, the average peak to trough correction is a little over eight percent. That would take us around 2,580 on the S&P,” he said. “I just emphasize that that’s the average. We’re going to focus on sentiment. See when we get to pessimism. If that happens above 2,600, we may say that’s enough.”

Despite Clissold’s near-term cautiousness, he predicts the S&P 500 will close the year in record high territory, exceeding the 2,940 hit last September.

“Coming into the year, it was 2950. We haven’t changed it,” Clissold said, adding it’s about a 6 percent annualized gain which is a typical gain for a normal year.

The S&P 500 closed the week up 3 percent and is now up more than 20 percent since the December low.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-17  Authors: stephanie landsman, getty images, anthony wallace, afp, chris goodney, bloomberg, david a grogan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, sentiment, months, lows, month, selloff, research, sp, davis, ned, clissold, slowdown, bullish, usually, thats, growth


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Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying about Tesla’s Model Y: ‘Underwhelming’, ‘no surprises’

The Model Y will use about 75 percent of the same parts as Tesla’s low-cost Model 3, CEO Elon Musk said. That makes the Model Y “likely to cannibalize the Model 3,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said. Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne also said the “Model Y reveal underwhelmed us,” especially since “the night held no surprises.” “We remain concerned about the manufacturing timeline,” Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi said of the Model Y. Here’s what all the major analysts said about Tesla’s Model Y un


The Model Y will use about 75 percent of the same parts as Tesla’s low-cost Model 3, CEO Elon Musk said. That makes the Model Y “likely to cannibalize the Model 3,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said. Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne also said the “Model Y reveal underwhelmed us,” especially since “the night held no surprises.” “We remain concerned about the manufacturing timeline,” Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi said of the Model Y. Here’s what all the major analysts said about Tesla’s Model Y un
Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying about Tesla’s Model Y: ‘Underwhelming’, ‘no surprises’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-15  Authors: michael sheetz
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, surprises, underwhelming, heres, sentiment, street, osborne, model, analysts, wall, tesla, saying, teslas, q1, unveiling, night


Here's what Wall Street analysts are saying about Tesla's Model Y: 'Underwhelming', 'no surprises'

Tesla unveiled its crossover SUV electric vehicle on Thursday night but Wall Street was largely unimpressed by it and received it with little fanfare.

The shares dropped more 4.5 percent in trading Friday.

“Overall, we found the event somewhat underwhelming with no major surprises,” Deutsche Bank’s Emmanuel Rosner said in a note.

The Model Y will use about 75 percent of the same parts as Tesla’s low-cost Model 3, CEO Elon Musk said. That makes the Model Y “likely to cannibalize the Model 3,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said.

Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne also said the “Model Y reveal underwhelmed us,” especially since “the night held no surprises.” Osborne said investors were looking for a refresh to the Model S and Model X lines, new software or even details on how Tesla’s first quarter is going.

“We remain concerned about the manufacturing timeline,” Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi said of the Model Y. “Last night’s unveiling essentially reaffirmed Tesla’s target of ‘volume’ production by the end of 2020.”

A few analysts stuck to bullish sentiment on Tesla as a whole, exemplified by Baird’s Ben Kallo, who said his firm continues “to like TSLA into the Q1 delivery release, as we think the negative sentiment on Model 3 demand and Q1 deliveries is overblown.”

Here’s what all the major analysts said about Tesla’s Model Y unveiling:


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-15  Authors: michael sheetz
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, surprises, underwhelming, heres, sentiment, street, osborne, model, analysts, wall, tesla, saying, teslas, q1, unveiling, night


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Shanghai stocks plummet more than 4 percent: ‘China’s trade recession has started to emerge’

Shares in mainland China crumbled on Friday after Chinese trade data missed expectations by a wide margin. China on Friday reported worse than expected trade data for the month of February. China’s February trade balance was also significantly weaker than expected at $4.12 billion. The country’s trade balance in January had been $39.16 billion. In a note on Friday, ANZ said the release of the trade numbers reinforced its view that “China’s trade recession has started to emerge.”


Shares in mainland China crumbled on Friday after Chinese trade data missed expectations by a wide margin. China on Friday reported worse than expected trade data for the month of February. China’s February trade balance was also significantly weaker than expected at $4.12 billion. The country’s trade balance in January had been $39.16 billion. In a note on Friday, ANZ said the release of the trade numbers reinforced its view that “China’s trade recession has started to emerge.”
Shanghai stocks plummet more than 4 percent: ‘China’s trade recession has started to emerge’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-08  Authors: eustance huang, weizhen tan, str, afp, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, chinese, note, sentiment, shares, balance, chinas, release, expected, emerge, data, trade, shenzhen, shanghai, plummet, started, stocks, recession


Shanghai stocks plummet more than 4 percent: 'China's trade recession has started to emerge'

Shares in mainland China crumbled on Friday after Chinese trade data missed expectations by a wide margin.

All major Chinese indexes closed the day deep in negative territory. The Shanghai composite plunged 4.4 percent, the Shenzhen component tumbled 3.248 percent and the Shenzhen composite dropped 3.791 percent. The CSI 300, which tracks the largest shares on the mainland, plummeted nearly 4 percent.

The significant losses in Chinese stocks came as overall sentiment in Asia was downbeat for the day. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.5 percent, as of 3:14 p.m. HK/SIN.

China on Friday reported worse than expected trade data for the month of February. Dollar-denominated exports plunged 20.7 percent for the month from a year ago, missing economists’ expectations of a 4.8 percent decline, according to a Reuters poll. February’s dollar-denominated imports, meanwhile, fell 5.2 percent from the prior year, missing an expected 1.4 percent fall.

China’s February trade balance was also significantly weaker than expected at $4.12 billion. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the overall trade balance to come in at $26.38 billion. The country’s trade balance in January had been $39.16 billion.

In a note on Friday, ANZ said the release of the trade numbers reinforced its view that “China’s trade recession has started to emerge.”

China will require a stronger dose of stimulus to support growth, said Raymond Yeung, ANZ Research’s chief economist for Greater China.

“Looking ahead, we find little reason to expect a rebound in the near term on the back of a sluggish global electronics cycle,” he explained in the note, adding that Asia’s export figures are pointing to a “sobering” outlook.

That sentiment was echoed by Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics.

“We expect subdued global trade and the impact of US tariffs to continue to weigh on exports in the coming months, although the tariff suspension by the US and China and increased likelihood of a more lasting agreement should help eventually,” Kuijs said in a note following Friday’s data release.

— CNBC’s Huileng Tan contributed to this report.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-08  Authors: eustance huang, weizhen tan, str, afp, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, chinese, note, sentiment, shares, balance, chinas, release, expected, emerge, data, trade, shenzhen, shanghai, plummet, started, stocks, recession


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No ‘compelling’ reason to invest in Indian stocks now: SEB

No ‘compelling’ reason to invest in Indian stocks now: SEB14 Hours AgoThe sentiment toward Indian assets is being affected by the fact that the country’s election outcome is “very uncertain,” says Eugenia Victorino of SEB.


No ‘compelling’ reason to invest in Indian stocks now: SEB14 Hours AgoThe sentiment toward Indian assets is being affected by the fact that the country’s election outcome is “very uncertain,” says Eugenia Victorino of SEB.
No ‘compelling’ reason to invest in Indian stocks now: SEB Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-20
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, outcome, seb, seb14, uncertain, indian, compelling, victorino, reason, stocks, sentiment, invest


No 'compelling' reason to invest in Indian stocks now: SEB

No ‘compelling’ reason to invest in Indian stocks now: SEB

14 Hours Ago

The sentiment toward Indian assets is being affected by the fact that the country’s election outcome is “very uncertain,” says Eugenia Victorino of SEB.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-20
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, outcome, seb, seb14, uncertain, indian, compelling, victorino, reason, stocks, sentiment, invest


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Homebuilder sentiment rises as interest rates stay in check

The nation’s homebuilders are feeling better about the state of their industry as lower interest rates boost consumer confidence. Sentiment fell at the end of last year, largely because mortgage rates jumped in the fall, hurting affordability. Newly built homes come at a price premium to existing homes, so higher interest rates can have an outsize effect on the new construction market. Interest rates then fell sharply at the end of the year and have remained lower this year. “Ongoing reduction i


The nation’s homebuilders are feeling better about the state of their industry as lower interest rates boost consumer confidence. Sentiment fell at the end of last year, largely because mortgage rates jumped in the fall, hurting affordability. Newly built homes come at a price premium to existing homes, so higher interest rates can have an outsize effect on the new construction market. Interest rates then fell sharply at the end of the year and have remained lower this year. “Ongoing reduction i
Homebuilder sentiment rises as interest rates stay in check Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-19  Authors: diana olick, lisa rizzolo, david paul morris, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, rises, rates, newly, lower, stay, sentiment, mortgage, check, interest, market, homebuilder, sales, housing, points, homes


Homebuilder sentiment rises as interest rates stay in check

The nation’s homebuilders are feeling better about the state of their industry as lower interest rates boost consumer confidence.

Builder sentiment rose 4 points to 62 in February, according to a monthly survey from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The survey stood at 71 last February. Anything above 50 on the index is considered positive.

Sentiment fell at the end of last year, largely because mortgage rates jumped in the fall, hurting affordability. Newly built homes come at a price premium to existing homes, so higher interest rates can have an outsize effect on the new construction market. Interest rates then fell sharply at the end of the year and have remained lower this year.

“Ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “In the aftermath of the fall slowdown, many builders are reporting positive expectations for the spring selling season.”

Of the index’s three components, buyer traffic moved up 4 points to 48. Current sales conditions rose 3 points to 67, and sales expectations over the next six months increased 5 points to 68. February marks the second month where all three of the indexes showed gains.

Sales of newly built homes have been hard to read, due to the recent government shutdown and delays in reporting from the U.S. Census. Several sources noted a sharp decline in sales toward the end of the year, with a slight improvement in January. Mortgage applications to purchase newly built homes were flat in January compared with January 2018, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The cost to build homes continues to be a concern.

“Rising costs stemming from excessive regulations, a dearth of buildable lots, a persistent labor shortage and tariffs on lumber and other key building materials continue to make it increasingly difficult to produce housing at affordable price points,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

Housing starts and builder permits data have not been reported since last year, but they have been running well below demand and historical averages since the housing crash. While single-family starts are slowly rising, there continues to be a critical shortage of homes for sale, especially at lower, more affordable prices.

Builders are still focused most on the move-up sector of the housing market, as the costs of land, labor and materials continue to run high, making it more difficult financially to build lower-priced homes.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-19  Authors: diana olick, lisa rizzolo, david paul morris, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, rises, rates, newly, lower, stay, sentiment, mortgage, check, interest, market, homebuilder, sales, housing, points, homes


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Dollar near six-week highs as trade, growth worries ramp up

The dollar rose against most other currencies on Monday, holding near a six-week high as fresh worries about U.S.-Sino trade tensions and global growth drove appetite for safe-haven assets. “The Aussie dollar and the euro are at vulnerable levels right now and further dampening in risk sentiment can lead to further downside in these currencies.” Trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies have been a major driver of global investor sentiment over the past year. The strength in the d


The dollar rose against most other currencies on Monday, holding near a six-week high as fresh worries about U.S.-Sino trade tensions and global growth drove appetite for safe-haven assets. “The Aussie dollar and the euro are at vulnerable levels right now and further dampening in risk sentiment can lead to further downside in these currencies.” Trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies have been a major driver of global investor sentiment over the past year. The strength in the d
Dollar near six-week highs as trade, growth worries ramp up Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-11  Authors: dan kitwood, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, highs, sentiment, sixweek, near, global, versus, tensions, chinese, ramp, euro, worries, dollar, growth, yields, week


Dollar near six-week highs as trade, growth worries ramp up

The dollar rose against most other currencies on Monday, holding near a six-week high as fresh worries about U.S.-Sino trade tensions and global growth drove appetite for safe-haven assets.

“U.S.-China talks are the big focus for the week and the dollar strength is indicative of the cautious market sentiment right now owing to its safe-haven status,” said Nick Twidale, chief operating officer at Rakuten Securities.

“The Aussie dollar and the euro are at vulnerable levels right now and further dampening in risk sentiment can lead to further downside in these currencies.”

U.S. negotiators will this week press China on longstanding demands that it reform how it treats U.S. companies’ intellectual property in order to seal a trade deal that could prevent tariffs from rising on Chinese imports.

The dollar gained 0.1 percent versus the yen to 109.82. However, traders expect moves in dollar/yen to be small on Monday as Japanese markets remain shut for a public holiday.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, was marginally higher at 96.64, on track for its eighth straight day of gains.

Trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies have been a major driver of global investor sentiment over the past year. Market confidence took a hit last week when U.S. President Donald Trump said he did not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a March 1 deadline set by the two countries to achieve a trade deal.

Trump has vowed to increase U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent currently if the two sides cannot reach a deal by March 2.

The euro was marginally lower versus the greenback at $1.1322 in early Asian trade while the Aussie was 0.15 percent higher at $0.7099, after a disastrous week in which it lost 2.2 percent.

The strength in the dollar has come despite the Federal Reserve taking a dovish stance at its last policy meeting in January. For now, investors are piling into the safety of the greenback due to fears of a sharp global economic slowdown.

The euro came under pressure as core European government debt yields touched their lowest in over two years. The single currency has lost 2.5 percent so far this month.

Benchmark German yields were just 10 basis points away from zero percent.

The European Commission sharply cut on Thursday its forecasts for euro zone economic growth for this year and next with the bloc’s largest economies expected to be held back by global trade tensions and domestic challenges.

Last month, the International Monetary Fund also downgraded its forecasts for global growth.

Elsewhere, sterling was down 0.1 percent at $1.2935. Traders expect the pound to remain volatile amid heightened political uncertainty over the Brexit process.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-11  Authors: dan kitwood, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, highs, sentiment, sixweek, near, global, versus, tensions, chinese, ramp, euro, worries, dollar, growth, yields, week


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Don’t expect significant stock market gains in 2019, says Goldman’s Oppenheimer

A stock market rebound at the beginning of 2019 comes after a period of gloomy market sentiment in the final three months of last year. However, improving market sentiment since the beginning of 2019 has helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average jump more than 7 percent, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 also climbing over 6 percent. “European stock markets have enjoyed a rally over the course of this year to date just as most others have as well. But, fundamentally — that said — we do think profit


A stock market rebound at the beginning of 2019 comes after a period of gloomy market sentiment in the final three months of last year. However, improving market sentiment since the beginning of 2019 has helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average jump more than 7 percent, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 also climbing over 6 percent. “European stock markets have enjoyed a rally over the course of this year to date just as most others have as well. But, fundamentally — that said — we do think profit
Don’t expect significant stock market gains in 2019, says Goldman’s Oppenheimer Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-08  Authors: sam meredith, brendan mcdermid
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, returns, weak, expect, 2019, growth, markets, gains, profit, oppenheimer, pretty, dont, goldmans, sentiment, stock, market, significant


Don't expect significant stock market gains in 2019, says Goldman's Oppenheimer

Goldman’s Oppenheimer: Important to note the European stock markets are not the European economies 5 Hours Ago | 07:27

Investors hoping for big returns from financial markets this year are going to have to dial back their expectations, according to the chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs.

A stock market rebound at the beginning of 2019 comes after a period of gloomy market sentiment in the final three months of last year.

U.S.-China trade tensions, Brexit uncertainty and fears about global growth intensified at the end of 2018, prompting U.S. stocks to register their worst December since the Great Depression.

However, improving market sentiment since the beginning of 2019 has helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average jump more than 7 percent, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 also climbing over 6 percent.

“European stock markets have enjoyed a rally over the course of this year to date just as most others have as well. But, fundamentally — that said — we do think profit growth is going to be pretty weak this year,” Goldman Sachs’ Peter Oppenheimer told CNBC on Friday.

“It’s worth noting that we expect pretty weak profit growth across all major regions this year… That’s where we get this idea of a sort of skinny and flat market, relatively low returns in a reasonably narrow trading range,” he added.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-08  Authors: sam meredith, brendan mcdermid
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Aussie dollar slides on dismal China data; yen steadies

The Australian dollar fell versus the greenback on Friday after a private survey showed factory activity in China shrank by the most in almost three years in January. The Australian dollar, often considered a barometer for global risk appetite, fell 0.4 percent to $0.7246. The yen was steady at 108.8 against the dollar after hitting a two-week high in the previous session. The dollar is widely expected to weaken this year as the Federal Reserve turns more cautious about further rate increases. A


The Australian dollar fell versus the greenback on Friday after a private survey showed factory activity in China shrank by the most in almost three years in January. The Australian dollar, often considered a barometer for global risk appetite, fell 0.4 percent to $0.7246. The yen was steady at 108.8 against the dollar after hitting a two-week high in the previous session. The dollar is widely expected to weaken this year as the Federal Reserve turns more cautious about further rate increases. A
Aussie dollar slides on dismal China data; yen steadies Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-01  Authors: matt cardy, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, yen, versus, data, aussie, risk, deal, remain, expected, dollar, steadies, china, sentiment, dismal, slides, steady, president


Aussie dollar slides on dismal China data; yen steadies

The Australian dollar fell versus the greenback on Friday after a private survey showed factory activity in China shrank by the most in almost three years in January.

The Australian dollar, often considered a barometer for global risk appetite, fell 0.4 percent to $0.7246. The kiwi was at $0.6907, down 0.2 percent versus the greenback.

China’s gloomy factory readings have brought global growth worries to the fore again, which is likely to benefit safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen.

“Dollar/yen is expected to remain weak given a dovish Federal Reserve but we can expect a bigger move down if there is a return of risk-off sentiment,” said Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore.

The yen was steady at 108.8 against the dollar after hitting a two-week high in the previous session.

However, broader risk sentiment still remained fairly strong after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon to try and seal a comprehensive trade deal as the top U.S. negotiator reported “substantial progress” in two days of high-level talks.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, was steady at 95.60. The index is set to end the week in the red, after losing 0.6 percent of its value last week.

The dollar is widely expected to weaken this year as the Federal Reserve turns more cautious about further rate increases.

On Wednesday, the U.S. central bank held interest rates steady as expected but discarded pledges of “further gradual increases” in interest rates, and said it would be “patient” before making any further moves.

Trade talks between the United States and China could also have an impact on the dollar, which has acted as a safe-haven in times of uncertainty.

President Trump said he wanted a “very big” trade deal with China, but he signaled there could be delays if talks fail to meet his goals of opening the Chinese economy broadly to U.S. industry and agriculture.

Analysts say a comprehensive trade deal between the world’s two largest economies would most likely boost risk sentiment and lead to a weaker dollar.

Markets are now focusing on U.S. jobs data later on Friday. Analysts note that any weakness in the labor market and a fall in wage inflation would only reinforce the dovish outlook for the dollar this year.

The euro was flat at $1.1446 after having fallen 0.3 percent in the last session. The single currency has not managed to gain despite broader dollar weakness as growth and inflation in the euro zone remain weaker than expected.

Indeed, Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank president and a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council, painted a bleak picture of the German economy on Thursday, saying the slump in Europe’s largest economy will last longer than initially thought.

Sterling, which is grappling with troubles of its own on uncertainty over a deal to avoid a chaotic British exit from the European Union, was flat at $1.3109. Analysts expect the British pound to remain volatile in the coming weeks.

— CNBC contributed to this report.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-02-01  Authors: matt cardy, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, yen, versus, data, aussie, risk, deal, remain, expected, dollar, steadies, china, sentiment, dismal, slides, steady, president


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Gold hits over 7-month peak as Huawei case sparks risk-off sentiment

Spot gold rose to its highest since June 14, 2018 at $1,306.43 and was up 0.2 percent at $1,306.11 per ounce by 0715 GMT. “Investors are very cautious with many uncertainties on U.S.-China trade talks and Brexit. Huawei is at the centre of dispute, creating very noisy background for the trade talks,” said Margaret Yang, a market analyst at CMC Markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting begins later in the day, where the central bank is expected to leave interest rates


Spot gold rose to its highest since June 14, 2018 at $1,306.43 and was up 0.2 percent at $1,306.11 per ounce by 0715 GMT. “Investors are very cautious with many uncertainties on U.S.-China trade talks and Brexit. Huawei is at the centre of dispute, creating very noisy background for the trade talks,” said Margaret Yang, a market analyst at CMC Markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting begins later in the day, where the central bank is expected to leave interest rates
Gold hits over 7-month peak as Huawei case sparks risk-off sentiment Cached Page below :
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Gold hits over 7-month peak as Huawei case sparks risk-off sentiment

Gold prices hit a more than seven-month high on Tuesday as investors shun riskier assets on worries over escalation in Sino-U.S. trade tensions after the U.S. Justice Department charged China’s Huawei Technologies Co Ltd with fraud.

Spot gold rose to its highest since June 14, 2018 at $1,306.43 and was up 0.2 percent at $1,306.11 per ounce by 0715 GMT. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1 percent at $1,304.70 per ounce.

“Investors are very cautious with many uncertainties on U.S.-China trade talks and Brexit. Huawei is at the centre of dispute, creating very noisy background for the trade talks,” said Margaret Yang, a market analyst at CMC Markets.

“All these are making it more difficult for investors to judge the market’s direction. Money is fleeing into assets such as gold, seeking safety.”

The United States on Monday charged Huawei, its chief financial officer and two affiliates with bank and wire fraud to violate sanctions against Iran in a case that has escalated tensions with Beijing.

Investors fear the charges could complicate high-level trade talks set to begin on Wednesday where Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will meet with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and others.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, held close to a two-week low, while Asian shares fell.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting begins later in the day, where the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

The Fed raised interest rates four times last year, but some officials have said they will be patient in raising rates given the stalemate over global trade, the U.S. federal government shutdown, and waning business and consumer confidence.

Gold tends to rise on expectations of lower interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

The yellow metal has risen over 12 percent since touching a more than 1-1/2-year-low in August mostly due to volatile stock markets and a softer dollar on the back of expectations that the Fed will pause its multi-year rate-hike cycle.

Reflecting investor sentiment in bullion, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF), rose 0.73 percent to 815.64 tonnes on Monday, their highest since June 2018.

“ETF interest remains supportive to the yellow metal, while a number of ongoing geopolitical concerns continue to facilitate top-side momentum,” MKS PAMP Group said in a note.

In other metals, palladium was steady at $1,331 per ounce. Prices hit a record high of $1,434.50 on Jan. 17.

Silver rose 0.2 percent to $15.77 per ounce while platinum was up 0.4 percent to $812.51.


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Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach says we just got ‘the most recessionary signal’ yet

In particular, the gap between current sentiment and future expectations has blown out wider, according to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index released Tuesday. While confidence in the broader confidence index remains strong, falling just slightly month over month, the Expectations Index tumbled from 97.7 to 87.3 from December. Such wide gaps have portended sharp declines in economic activity, as pointed out by several market observers, including DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlac


In particular, the gap between current sentiment and future expectations has blown out wider, according to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index released Tuesday. While confidence in the broader confidence index remains strong, falling just slightly month over month, the Expectations Index tumbled from 97.7 to 87.3 from December. Such wide gaps have portended sharp declines in economic activity, as pointed out by several market observers, including DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlac
Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach says we just got ‘the most recessionary signal’ yet Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-29  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, confidence, king, expectations, present, index, gundlach, signal, future, market, bond, consumer, recessionary, sentiment, month, history, jeffrey


Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach says we just got 'the most recessionary signal' yet

Drooping consumer sentiment is pointing the way to a substantial economic slowdown, if history is any guide.

In particular, the gap between current sentiment and future expectations has blown out wider, according to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index released Tuesday.

While confidence in the broader confidence index remains strong, falling just slightly month over month, the Expectations Index tumbled from 97.7 to 87.3 from December. Since October, the expectations reading has plunged 24 percent. Conversely, the Present Situation Index is at 169.6, a nudge lower from December’s reading.

Such wide gaps have portended sharp declines in economic activity, as pointed out by several market observers, including DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach, the so-called Bond King.

“The most recessionary signal at present is consumer future expectations relative to current conditions. It’s one of the worst readings ever,” he said in a tweet.

The difference between the two readings has only been wider three times in the survey’s history going back to 1967, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Those came in January through March of 2001, the final month being the beginning of a recession.

Moreover, when the gap between the Present Situation and Expectations indexes has exceeded 50 — it is currently at 82.3 — “recessions weren’t far behind,” wrote Bespoke’s Paul Hickey.

The partial government shutdown, which ended this week, was the longest in history and likely dented sentiment.

“Shock events such as government shutdowns (i.e. 2013) tend to have sharp, but temporary, impacts on consumer confidence,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. “Thus, it appears that this month’s decline is more the result of a temporary shock than a precursor to a significant slowdown in the coming months.”

But Hickey said investors would be wise to watch what appears to be a fragile economy closely. He said such disparities in present and future sentiment are the last indicators of growth that is in its latter stages.

“The stock market decline in December followed by the government shutdown undoubtedly had a negative impact on consumer sentiment in January, so the big gap in sentiment towards the present and future doesn’t guarantee that the US economy is on the cusp of a recession, but it does serve as a reminder that the economy is a lot slower now than it was a year ago,” he said in a note. “Therefore, the cushion to absorb any further weakness has worn thinner.”

WATCH:’Bond King’ Jeffrey Gundlach says S&P 500 has already entered bear market


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-01-29  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, confidence, king, expectations, present, index, gundlach, signal, future, market, bond, consumer, recessionary, sentiment, month, history, jeffrey


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