Here are the biggest analyst calls of the day: Merck, Intel, Dow & more

Northland said in its upgrade of the chipmaker that it thinks sentiment is nearing a “low point.” “1) Shares our trading below our PT. 2) Shares are trading at 11.5x our below consensus CY20 estimates. 5) We think value stocks likely outperform higher multiple stocks during sell offs. 6) Sentiment nearing a low point.As such upgrading to MP. “


Northland said in its upgrade of the chipmaker that it thinks sentiment is nearing a “low point.” “1) Shares our trading below our PT. 2) Shares are trading at 11.5x our below consensus CY20 estimates. 5) We think value stocks likely outperform higher multiple stocks during sell offs. 6) Sentiment nearing a low point.As such upgrading to MP. “
Here are the biggest analyst calls of the day: Merck, Intel, Dow & more Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-16  Authors: michael bloom
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, day, intel, merck, trading, shares, analyst, dow, calls, stocks, upgrading, low, estimates, value, view, biggest, sentiment, nearing


Here are the biggest analyst calls of the day: Merck, Intel, Dow & more

Northland said in its upgrade of the chipmaker that it thinks sentiment is nearing a “low point.”

“1) Shares our trading below our PT. 2) Shares are trading at 11.5x our below consensus CY20 estimates. 3) Negative AMD server launch catalyst is in the rear view mirror. 4) INTC beat Q2 by $900M and $0.17, but only increased CY19 estimates by $500M and $0.05. 5) We think value stocks likely outperform higher multiple stocks during sell offs. 6) Sentiment nearing a low point.As such upgrading to MP. “


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-16  Authors: michael bloom
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, day, intel, merck, trading, shares, analyst, dow, calls, stocks, upgrading, low, estimates, value, view, biggest, sentiment, nearing


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Major Asia Pacific markets higher; trade war concerns dampen investor sentiment

Major markets in Asia Pacific closed higher on Monday, following a volatile week for global markets as growing trade war fears dented investor sentiment. Mainland Chinese markets bounced back from the previous week’s losses to close higher Monday. Markets in rest of the region rose, with major indexes in Japan, India and Singapore closed for public holidays. Major miners struggled for gains: Rio Tinto shares tumbled 2.75%, BHP shares were down 0.75% and Fortescue dropped 3.99%. “A risk-off tone


Major markets in Asia Pacific closed higher on Monday, following a volatile week for global markets as growing trade war fears dented investor sentiment. Mainland Chinese markets bounced back from the previous week’s losses to close higher Monday. Markets in rest of the region rose, with major indexes in Japan, India and Singapore closed for public holidays. Major miners struggled for gains: Rio Tinto shares tumbled 2.75%, BHP shares were down 0.75% and Fortescue dropped 3.99%. “A risk-off tone
Major Asia Pacific markets higher; trade war concerns dampen investor sentiment Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-12  Authors: weizhen tan saheli roy choudhury, weizhen tan, saheli roy choudhury
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, pacific, concerns, sentiment, trade, major, higher, war, losses, week, markets, tumbled, close, shares, hong, investor, dampen


Major Asia Pacific markets higher; trade war concerns dampen investor sentiment

Major markets in Asia Pacific closed higher on Monday, following a volatile week for global markets as growing trade war fears dented investor sentiment.

Mainland Chinese markets bounced back from the previous week’s losses to close higher Monday. The Shanghai composite traded up 1.45% to close at 2,814.99 while the Shenzhen composite added 1.92% to 1,508.21. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was fractionally higher at 25,962.42 as of 3:15 p.m. HK/SIN.

But, shares of Hong Kong flag carrier Cathay Pacific tumbled more than 4% as of 3:15 p.m. HK/SIN after it suspended a pilot for his involvement in the ongoing anti-government protests in the city. The carrier said “overly radical” staff would be barred from crewing flights to the mainland. Cathay’s decision came a day after China’s aviation authority issued a “major aviation safety risk warning” to the airline.

Unrest in Hong Kong continued into its 10th week, with police and protesters clashing on Sunday.

Markets in rest of the region rose, with major indexes in Japan, India and Singapore closed for public holidays.

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 retraced some of its early losses to climb marginally higher to 6,590.30. Major miners struggled for gains: Rio Tinto shares tumbled 2.75%, BHP shares were down 0.75% and Fortescue dropped 3.99%.

In South Korea, the Kospi clawed back losses to rise 0.23% to close at 1,942,29.

Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was almost flat.

“Trade tensions continued to drive financial market moves going into the end of the week, with markets very sensitive to reports on the US-China relationship,” Jack Chambers from ANZ Research wrote in a Monday morning note. “A risk-off tone hit the markets as President Trump warned that talks scheduled for next month may not take place.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-12  Authors: weizhen tan saheli roy choudhury, weizhen tan, saheli roy choudhury
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, pacific, concerns, sentiment, trade, major, higher, war, losses, week, markets, tumbled, close, shares, hong, investor, dampen


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Major Asia Pacific markets higher; trade war concerns dampen investor sentiment

Major markets in Asia Pacific closed higher on Monday, following a volatile week for global markets as growing trade war fears dented investor sentiment. Mainland Chinese markets bounced back from the previous week’s losses to close higher Monday. Markets in rest of the region rose, with major indexes in Japan, India and Singapore closed for public holidays. Major miners struggled for gains: Rio Tinto shares tumbled 2.75%, BHP shares were down 0.75% and Fortescue dropped 3.99%. “A risk-off tone


Major markets in Asia Pacific closed higher on Monday, following a volatile week for global markets as growing trade war fears dented investor sentiment. Mainland Chinese markets bounced back from the previous week’s losses to close higher Monday. Markets in rest of the region rose, with major indexes in Japan, India and Singapore closed for public holidays. Major miners struggled for gains: Rio Tinto shares tumbled 2.75%, BHP shares were down 0.75% and Fortescue dropped 3.99%. “A risk-off tone
Major Asia Pacific markets higher; trade war concerns dampen investor sentiment Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-12  Authors: weizhen tan saheli roy choudhury, weizhen tan, saheli roy choudhury
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, dampen, close, investor, markets, pacific, higher, tumbled, week, shares, concerns, trade, war, losses, sentiment, hong, major


Major Asia Pacific markets higher; trade war concerns dampen investor sentiment

Major markets in Asia Pacific closed higher on Monday, following a volatile week for global markets as growing trade war fears dented investor sentiment.

Mainland Chinese markets bounced back from the previous week’s losses to close higher Monday. The Shanghai composite traded up 1.45% to close at 2,814.99 while the Shenzhen composite added 1.92% to 1,508.21. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was fractionally higher at 25,962.42 as of 3:15 p.m. HK/SIN.

But, shares of Hong Kong flag carrier Cathay Pacific tumbled more than 4% as of 3:15 p.m. HK/SIN after it suspended a pilot for his involvement in the ongoing anti-government protests in the city. The carrier said “overly radical” staff would be barred from crewing flights to the mainland. Cathay’s decision came a day after China’s aviation authority issued a “major aviation safety risk warning” to the airline.

Unrest in Hong Kong continued into its 10th week, with police and protesters clashing on Sunday.

Markets in rest of the region rose, with major indexes in Japan, India and Singapore closed for public holidays.

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 retraced some of its early losses to climb marginally higher to 6,590.30. Major miners struggled for gains: Rio Tinto shares tumbled 2.75%, BHP shares were down 0.75% and Fortescue dropped 3.99%.

In South Korea, the Kospi clawed back losses to rise 0.23% to close at 1,942,29.

Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was almost flat.

“Trade tensions continued to drive financial market moves going into the end of the week, with markets very sensitive to reports on the US-China relationship,” Jack Chambers from ANZ Research wrote in a Monday morning note. “A risk-off tone hit the markets as President Trump warned that talks scheduled for next month may not take place.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-08-12  Authors: weizhen tan saheli roy choudhury, weizhen tan, saheli roy choudhury
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, dampen, close, investor, markets, pacific, higher, tumbled, week, shares, concerns, trade, war, losses, sentiment, hong, major


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Asian markets decline as trade worries weigh on investor sentiment

Major Asian markets declined on Wednesday as global trade concerns weighed on investor sentiment. The Nikkei 225 slipped 0.53% to close at 21,638.16, while the Topix fell 0.65% to end its trading day at 1,579.54. In mainland China, the Shanghai composite was lower by 0.94% to close at 3,015.26 and the Shenzhen component shed 1.32% to 9,419.84. The Shenzhen composite fell 1.18% to close at 1,600.02. Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 bucked the overall trend in the region as it ended its trading


Major Asian markets declined on Wednesday as global trade concerns weighed on investor sentiment. The Nikkei 225 slipped 0.53% to close at 21,638.16, while the Topix fell 0.65% to end its trading day at 1,579.54. In mainland China, the Shanghai composite was lower by 0.94% to close at 3,015.26 and the Shenzhen component shed 1.32% to 9,419.84. The Shenzhen composite fell 1.18% to close at 1,600.02. Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 bucked the overall trend in the region as it ended its trading
Asian markets decline as trade worries weigh on investor sentiment Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-03  Authors: eustance huang
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, worries, composite, slipped, asian, trade, sentiment, decline, day, declined, trading, fell, weighed, markets, shenzhen, weigh, world, investor, close


Asian markets decline as trade worries weigh on investor sentiment

Major Asian markets declined on Wednesday as global trade concerns weighed on investor sentiment.

The Nikkei 225 slipped 0.53% to close at 21,638.16, while the Topix fell 0.65% to end its trading day at 1,579.54.

In mainland China, the Shanghai composite was lower by 0.94% to close at 3,015.26 and the Shenzhen component shed 1.32% to 9,419.84. The Shenzhen composite fell 1.18% to close at 1,600.02.

A private survey on Wednesday showed that growth in China’s services sector slowed to a four-month low in June.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi also declined 1.23% to close at 2,096.02. Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 bucked the overall trend in the region as it ended its trading day 0.49% higher at 6,685.50.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped more than 0.2%, as of its final hour of trading.

“I think recessionary signals are rising,” Rainer Michael Preiss, executive director at Taurus Wealth Advisors, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Wednesday. “Every number in … many countries around the world that I look at seem to imply that the economies are weakening much faster than equity prices.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-03  Authors: eustance huang
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, worries, composite, slipped, asian, trade, sentiment, decline, day, declined, trading, fell, weighed, markets, shenzhen, weigh, world, investor, close


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Morgan Stanley on trade truce: No real progress, downside risks to economy and market remain

President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping shake hands ahead of their bilateral meeting during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. Developments at the G-20 Summit in Osaka, Japan over the weekend on their own do not erase the uncertainty that is weighing on corporate confidence and the broader global economy, the firm said. On Saturday at the G-20 summit, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed not to impose new tariffs on U.S. and Chinese g


President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping shake hands ahead of their bilateral meeting during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. Developments at the G-20 Summit in Osaka, Japan over the weekend on their own do not erase the uncertainty that is weighing on corporate confidence and the broader global economy, the firm said. On Saturday at the G-20 summit, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed not to impose new tariffs on U.S. and Chinese g
Morgan Stanley on trade truce: No real progress, downside risks to economy and market remain Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-01  Authors: maggie fitzgerald
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, president, summit, trump, market, china, g20, progress, global, trade, sentiment, risks, truce, real, ahya, stanley, morgan, remain, economy


Morgan Stanley on trade truce: No real progress, downside risks to economy and market remain

DATE IMPORTED:June 29, 2019U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping shake hands ahead of their bilateral meeting during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Tensions between the U.S. and China are not escalating but there is still “no clear path” towards a deal between the world’s two largest economies, according to Morgan Stanley.

Developments at the G-20 Summit in Osaka, Japan over the weekend on their own do not erase the uncertainty that is weighing on corporate confidence and the broader global economy, the firm said.

“As things stand, we lack clarity on whether real progress was achieved on the sticking points that caused talks to break down in the first place,” Morgan Stanley chief economist Chetan Ahya said in a note to clients on Sunday.

On Saturday at the G-20 summit, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed not to impose new tariffs on U.S. and Chinese goods. The U.S. said they would hold off on the potential 25% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of imports from China and China said they would continue to buy U.S. agricultural products. This comes after a trade deal between the two countries fell through in the begging of May.

Although Trump said the two countries are “right on track,” Ahya said the lingering unknown is dangerous for corporate sentiment and a looming economic slowdown.

“Uncertainty is the enemy of the business cycle,” said Ahya.

Corporate sentiment is at multi-year lows, global PMIs for May fell broadly and Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index fell to its largest one-month decline on record. Ahya said the data is painting a bleak picture and causing consumer sentiment to “sour.”

Ahya said the uncertainty, paired with earnings growth slowing, will cause the corporate sector to face tightening financial conditions. This “could impair lending, weaken confidence further and exacerbate the slowdown in growth,” said Ahya.

Morgan Stanley’s equity analyst Michael Wilson said to sell the trade truce news, in a note to clients Monday.

“A pause in rising trade tensions is not a fix for slowing US economic activity and earnings pressure,” said Wilson.

Although unlikely, Ahya also said in the event of re-escalation between the U.S. and China, we could end up in a global recession in three quarters.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 117 points. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both closed positive as well.

—with reporting from CNBC’s Patti Domm


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-01  Authors: maggie fitzgerald
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, president, summit, trump, market, china, g20, progress, global, trade, sentiment, risks, truce, real, ahya, stanley, morgan, remain, economy


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Dow falls, snapping 6-day winning streak

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down 14.17 points at 26,048.51, erasing a gain of 185.99 points. The S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1% to 2,885.72 while the Nasdaq Composite finished just below breakeven at 7,822.57. The industrials sector was the biggest laggard in the S&P 500, dropping 0.9% as Raytheon shares declined by 5.1%. However, the S&P 500 remained around 2.4% below an intraday record. There’s a bit of an expectation the S&P 500 might be able to test those levels we saw in


The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down 14.17 points at 26,048.51, erasing a gain of 185.99 points. The S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1% to 2,885.72 while the Nasdaq Composite finished just below breakeven at 7,822.57. The industrials sector was the biggest laggard in the S&P 500, dropping 0.9% as Raytheon shares declined by 5.1%. However, the S&P 500 remained around 2.4% below an intraday record. There’s a bit of an expectation the S&P 500 might be able to test those levels we saw in
Dow falls, snapping 6-day winning streak Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-06-11  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, negative, highs, headwind, snapping, points, sp, stocks, winning, 6day, 500, sentiment, falls, seeing, dow, streak


Dow falls, snapping 6-day winning streak

Stocks closed marginally lower on Tuesday, taking a breather after posting strong gains to start off June.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down 14.17 points at 26,048.51, erasing a gain of 185.99 points. The S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1% to 2,885.72 while the Nasdaq Composite finished just below breakeven at 7,822.57. The industrials sector was the biggest laggard in the S&P 500, dropping 0.9% as Raytheon shares declined by 5.1%.

The Dow also snapped a six-day winning streak. However, the S&P 500 remained around 2.4% below an intraday record.

“At this point, a failure to break out to new highs would be viewed as negative. The month is only a week and a half old, but we’ve got a head of steam now. We’re seeing evidence of more individual stocks in the S&P 500 making new highs. There’s a bit of an expectation the S&P 500 might be able to test those levels we saw in April,” said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Baird.

“The potential headwind to that is what happens with sentiment. Sentiment turned so negative in May and now, as stock rebound in June, we’re seeing pessimism being replaced with optimism. If it comes in too fast, that can shift from being a tailwind for stocks to a headwind,” Delwiche said.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-06-11  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, negative, highs, headwind, snapping, points, sp, stocks, winning, 6day, 500, sentiment, falls, seeing, dow, streak


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Treasury yields edge lower as Wall Street rally fades

U.S. government debt prices rose Thursday morning, as risk-on sentiment faded on Wall Street after two sessions of strong gains. At around 2:00 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 2.1139%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was lower at 2.6274%.


U.S. government debt prices rose Thursday morning, as risk-on sentiment faded on Wall Street after two sessions of strong gains. At around 2:00 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 2.1139%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was lower at 2.6274%.
Treasury yields edge lower as Wall Street rally fades Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-06-06  Authors: matt clinch
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, strong, treasury, wall, street, sentiment, yield, lower, sessions, rally, yields, edge, fades, rose, riskon


Treasury yields edge lower as Wall Street rally fades

U.S. government debt prices rose Thursday morning, as risk-on sentiment faded on Wall Street after two sessions of strong gains.

At around 2:00 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 2.1139%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was lower at 2.6274%.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-06-06  Authors: matt clinch
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, strong, treasury, wall, street, sentiment, yield, lower, sessions, rally, yields, edge, fades, rose, riskon


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Farmer sentiment hits its lowest level since before Trump’s election as the China trade war drags on

Farmer sentiment plunged in May to its lowest level in nearly three years as the trade war with China escalated and concerns about economic conditions grew, according to a survey released Tuesday. Corn and soybean planting paces are the slowest on record since the mid-1990s, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Soybean farmers have been among the hardest hit in the China trade war in terms of dollar value. Before the trade war, China bought roughly half of the U.S. soybean exports. B


Farmer sentiment plunged in May to its lowest level in nearly three years as the trade war with China escalated and concerns about economic conditions grew, according to a survey released Tuesday. Corn and soybean planting paces are the slowest on record since the mid-1990s, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Soybean farmers have been among the hardest hit in the China trade war in terms of dollar value. Before the trade war, China bought roughly half of the U.S. soybean exports. B
Farmer sentiment hits its lowest level since before Trump’s election as the China trade war drags on Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-06-04  Authors: jeff daniels
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, lowest, agricultural, farmer, soybean, mintert, level, sentiment, hits, planting, economy, war, trumps, producers, drags, election, survey, trade, china


Farmer sentiment hits its lowest level since before Trump's election as the China trade war drags on

“Ag producers are telling us the agricultural economy weakened considerably this spring as the barometer has fallen 42 points (29%) since the start of this year,” said James Mintert, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture and the barometer’s principal investigator.

May’s Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined 14 points from the prior month to a reading of 101, which is the lowest point since October 2016. It said the sentiment index is now at levels that have erased all gains recorded following President Donald Trump ‘s election.

Farmer sentiment plunged in May to its lowest level in nearly three years as the trade war with China escalated and concerns about economic conditions grew, according to a survey released Tuesday.

Farmers have been facing one of the wettest spring seasons in decades as a result of heavy rains and flooding in large sections of the Midwest and Eastern Plains region. Corn and soybean planting paces are the slowest on record since the mid-1990s, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The later planting means the crops are considered more susceptible to risk of injury and lower yields from summer heat and early fall frost damage. Also, some producers may switch to shorter season varieties of corn and soybeans, but that also comes at the risk of lower-yielding crops.

“Farmers are facing tough decisions in the midst of a wet planting season and a lot of uncertainty surrounding trade discussions,” Mintert said.

Soybean farmers have been among the hardest hit in the China trade war in terms of dollar value. Last year, China put retaliatory tariffs in place on a variety of U.S. agricultural and food products, from soybeans, corn and wheat to dairy and certain meat products.

Before the trade war, China bought roughly half of the U.S. soybean exports. But the value of soybean exports to China fell 74% to $3.1 billion in 2018 from about $12.2 billion the previous year, according to the USDA.

In addition, the U.S.-China trade fight has affected the Chinese buying of two corn-based products, U.S. dried distillers grains and ethanol.

On Monday, the Trump administration issued a statement accusing China of pursuing a “blame game” and “misrepresenting the nature and history of trade negotiations between the two countries.” It followed Beijing officials on Sunday accusing the U.S. of being responsible for the lack of progress in talks.

The Purdue ag barometer, a monthly survey of the health of the U.S. farm economy, is based on a poll of 400 U.S. agricultural products.

The May survey found only 20% of the respondents expected the trade dispute with China to be resolved by July 1. By comparison, 28% of those asked in April expected the resolution of the trade war by July 1 and 45% of those asked in March, when the question was first posed.

Even so, 65% of farmers polled in May remained confident the trade dispute will have a positive impact for American agriculture. That number stood at 77% in March and 71% in April.

“At this time, a majority of producers still expect a favorable outcome for agriculture to the trade dispute,” Mintert said. “But that majority appears to be shrinking.”

WATCH: Flooding disrupts midwest agricultural supply chain


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-06-04  Authors: jeff daniels
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, lowest, agricultural, farmer, soybean, mintert, level, sentiment, hits, planting, economy, war, trumps, producers, drags, election, survey, trade, china


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A full breakdown of where the stock market stands today and whether the tariff pain is priced in

This is not to minimize the damage to the market or underplay its precarious condition. The nearly 7% drop in the S&P 500 since its April 30 high has been swift, even if it is well within the band of a routine pullback after a strong four-month rally. Over the past two weeks, on average close to 10% of S&P 500 stocks a day made a new 52-week low. And this selling squall is striking the market at a consequential point, the benchmark in a disputed zone between continuing uptrend and breakdown. Ear


This is not to minimize the damage to the market or underplay its precarious condition. The nearly 7% drop in the S&P 500 since its April 30 high has been swift, even if it is well within the band of a routine pullback after a strong four-month rally. Over the past two weeks, on average close to 10% of S&P 500 stocks a day made a new 52-week low. And this selling squall is striking the market at a consequential point, the benchmark in a disputed zone between continuing uptrend and breakdown. Ear
A full breakdown of where the stock market stands today and whether the tariff pain is priced in Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-06-03  Authors: michael santoli
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stands, stock, 500, point, selling, market, stocks, pain, tariff, breakdown, sp, trade, today, sentiment, bonds, months, priced


A full breakdown of where the stock market stands today and whether the tariff pain is priced in

The bad news: The opening of a second trade-war front along the U.S.-Mexico border last week dialed up fear of global economic stagnation and peaking corporate profits, further pressuring stocks and prompting an urgent rush into Treasury bonds. The good news: The surprise tariff threat on Mexico pushed Wall Street toward extremes of pessimism and risk aversion that will probably require new and scarier headlines to generate much further selling in the short term. In other words, to bet big on stocks here is to be a bad news bull: acknowledging that the economy and policy landscape have become tougher, but determining that stocks and bonds have sunk deep enough into a defensive crouch to price in most of it. Or at least that such a point is approaching. This is not to minimize the damage to the market or underplay its precarious condition. The nearly 7% drop in the S&P 500 since its April 30 high has been swift, even if it is well within the band of a routine pullback after a strong four-month rally. But the index performance somewhat masks the deterioration underneath. Close to one-fifth of all stocks are below their December lows, even though the S&P is up more than 15% since then. Over the past two weeks, on average close to 10% of S&P 500 stocks a day made a new 52-week low. And this selling squall is striking the market at a consequential point, the benchmark in a disputed zone between continuing uptrend and breakdown.

Multipeak top?

Not only has the S&P 500 slipped below its 200-day average — itself not much of a predictive event — but it has made no net progress for about 17 months, with some seeing a foreboding multipeak topping formation. The market was showing signs last week of finding its footing, perhaps as investors made their peace with the ongoing U.S.-China trade stalemate. Then came the Mexico news — which pushed markets further in the direction they were leaning: raising probabilities of recession, aggressively pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut or two in coming months and curtailing risky bets in credit and equities. At this point, the story moves beyond the details of the trade tussles: After all, what beyond what has been imposed and threatened in these conflicts could further jar Wall Street in the immediate term? Now it’s about how much more significantly profit forecasts might have to be trimmed, whether the Fed will move in the direction markets have set out for it, and whether sentiment is yet plumbing extremes of negativity that can mean the selling of stocks is running its course. And, most crucial of all, whether trade frictions can be the decisive force that ends the economic expansion at its 10th anniversary.

‘Panic and capitulation’

“A reset of earnings expectations could help the equity market find a bottom, even without a final China trade deal, but that reset isn’t likely to happen until the next reporting season (mid July to mid August),” RBC Capital strategist Lori Calvasina said. “This waiting game, in the context of crowded conditions and expensive valuations in US equities, makes a 10% retracement (peak to trough) more likely.” Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, said: “The markets have been warning to an increasing extent that the ongoing trade war will perpetuate the global slowdown with an increasingly negative impact on U.S. growth, as excessive complacency has been replaced by increasing pessimism and doubt about the justification for current earnings multiples.” He figures this process will culminate in a good opportunity to recommit to stocks in the second half of this year — but not until further signs of “panic and capitulation” arise, and some sort of policy response is in sight. Panic and capitulation are conditions identifiable only in rough terms and rarely with much precision or deft timing. But it’s becoming possible that sentiment has soured enough to allow for bounces before too long on little more than an absence of further ugly headlines. Here’s the S&P 500 plotted by MacroCharts against the difference between bullish readings on stocks and Treasurys in www.trading-futures.com’s widely followed Daily Sentiment Index of futures traders. This gap is on the verge of an extreme that’s coincided with decent trading lows since 2007, implying the massive outperformance of stocks versus bonds is growing spring-loaded for a reversal. Earnings forecasts have stagnated, which means the S&P 500 is only a bit cheaper than it was eight months ago at the September market high. But the collapse in bond yields has begun to flatten equity valuations.

Stocks vs. bonds


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-06-03  Authors: michael santoli
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stands, stock, 500, point, selling, market, stocks, pain, tariff, breakdown, sp, trade, today, sentiment, bonds, months, priced


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Early Uber investor Bill Gurley on Silicon Valley’s shifting sentiment about IPOs

07:03 | 11:13 AM ET Wed, 8 May 2019


07:03 | 11:13 AM ET Wed, 8 May 2019
Early Uber investor Bill Gurley on Silicon Valley’s shifting sentiment about IPOs Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-22
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, sentiment, valleys, 1113, bill, shifting, silicon, gurley, 0703, ipos, early, et, 2019, investor, uber


Early Uber investor Bill Gurley on Silicon Valley's shifting sentiment about IPOs

07:03 | 11:13 AM ET Wed, 8 May 2019


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-22
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, sentiment, valleys, 1113, bill, shifting, silicon, gurley, 0703, ipos, early, et, 2019, investor, uber


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