US business leaders don’t see the ‘phase one’ China trade deal as a huge breakthrough

The partial trade deal signed Wednesday between the U.S. and China is hardly an immediate success, according to trade groups representing many of the nation’s biggest companies. “We’re certainly glad it’s not getting worse,” Stephen Lamar, president of American Apparel & Footwear Association, said Thursday on CNBC’s “The Exchange.” “[It’s] phase one in what has to be a multi-phase deal,” he said on “The Exchange.” “The most important thing is phase one moving to phase two, and in phase two we ca


The partial trade deal signed Wednesday between the U.S. and China is hardly an immediate success, according to trade groups representing many of the nation’s biggest companies.
“We’re certainly glad it’s not getting worse,” Stephen Lamar, president of American Apparel & Footwear Association, said Thursday on CNBC’s “The Exchange.”
“[It’s] phase one in what has to be a multi-phase deal,” he said on “The Exchange.”
“The most important thing is phase one moving to phase two, and in phase two we ca
US business leaders don’t see the ‘phase one’ China trade deal as a huge breakthrough Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-16  Authors: kevin stankiewicz
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, china, dont, goods, huge, exchange, breakthrough, lamar, deal, president, business, tariffed, leaders, phase, groups, trade, tariffs


US business leaders don't see the 'phase one' China trade deal as a huge breakthrough

The partial trade deal signed Wednesday between the U.S. and China is hardly an immediate success, according to trade groups representing many of the nation’s biggest companies.

“We’re certainly glad it’s not getting worse,” Stephen Lamar, president of American Apparel & Footwear Association, said Thursday on CNBC’s “The Exchange.” “The reality is all the goods that were being tariffed the day before the deal was announced are going to be tariffed on Feb. 14, which is the first day the deal takes effect.”

Neil Bradley, the Chamber of Commerce’s executive vice president and chief policy officer, said the group’s members recognize Wednesday’s agreement “for what it is.”

“[It’s] phase one in what has to be a multi-phase deal,” he said on “The Exchange.” “The most important thing is phase one moving to phase two, and in phase two we can really tackle the key fundamental problems that are driving this trade dispute.”

Like Lamar, Bradley noted there are still tariffs in place on “a large variety of goods that we import.”

But he emphasized the “phase one” deal delivered good news on the possibility of new tariffs and tariff reduction, with the Trump administration agreeing to cut duties on $120 billion in products to 7.5%. It also canceled tariffs that had been scheduled to take effect in December.

Bradley, who previously worked in the office of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said he is eager to see future negotiations between the U.S. and China result in further progress on concerns around intellectual property theft and state subsidies for Chinese companies.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-16  Authors: kevin stankiewicz
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Trump could still slap tariffs on China after signing ‘phase one’ trade deal, expert warns

China could face difficulties fulfilling its commitment in the so-called phase one trade deal with the U.S., allowing President Donald Trump to once again raise tariffs on Chinese goods, a trade expert warned on Wednesday. To meet that additional $200 billion, China would have to buy a “crazy amount” of U.S. “agricultural goods, machinery especially aircraft and energy products,” noted Elms. The U.S., especially the agriculture sector, could also find it challenging to supply that amount of prod


China could face difficulties fulfilling its commitment in the so-called phase one trade deal with the U.S., allowing President Donald Trump to once again raise tariffs on Chinese goods, a trade expert warned on Wednesday.
To meet that additional $200 billion, China would have to buy a “crazy amount” of U.S. “agricultural goods, machinery especially aircraft and energy products,” noted Elms.
The U.S., especially the agriculture sector, could also find it challenging to supply that amount of prod
Trump could still slap tariffs on China after signing ‘phase one’ trade deal, expert warns Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: yen nee lee
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Trump could still slap tariffs on China after signing 'phase one' trade deal, expert warns

China’s President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Nov. 9, 2017.

China could face difficulties fulfilling its commitment in the so-called phase one trade deal with the U.S., allowing President Donald Trump to once again raise tariffs on Chinese goods, a trade expert warned on Wednesday.

That’s especially the case when the deal — expected to be signed in Washington on Wednesday — would involve Beijing increasing its imports of U.S. goods and services by at least $200 billion over two years, said Deborah Elms, executive director at consultancy Asian Trade Centre.

To meet that additional $200 billion, China would have to buy a “crazy amount” of U.S. “agricultural goods, machinery especially aircraft and energy products,” noted Elms. For some products, Beijing may have to more than double its purchases by reducing tariffs on those imports and stop buying them from other sources.

“If the Chinese don’t achieve those purchase price targets, the U.S. could impose new tariffs or remove existing promises or all sort of things could happen,” Elms told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”

“I think the risks remain for companies between now and at least November that phase one doesn’t even hold,” she added.

The U.S., especially the agriculture sector, could also find it challenging to supply that amount of products to China, said Elms.

China bought around $186.29 billion of American goods and services in 2017 before the trade war started, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. In terms of agriculture products, China bought $24 billion from the U.S. in 2017 and is expected to increase that by $32 billion over two years, Reuters reported.

The U.S. and China, the world’s top two economies, have engaged in a tariff fight for more than two years. The trade war has affected business confidence and led institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to downgrade their forecasts for global economic growth.

The two sides reaching a “phase one” trade deal — which is not expected to include the reduction or removal of elevated tariffs — has brought some relief to the business community. But Elms warned that further progress will likely take “another year or more” to come.

“So, we’re stuck with tariffs for a very long time,” she said.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: yen nee lee
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Mnuchin says more tariffs will be rolled back in phase two of trade deal

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC on Wednesday that a future “phase two” trade deal with Beijing would ease U.S. tariffs on goods purchased from China even if the next agreements are segmented into multiple rounds. But the deal is also expected to lower structural barriers for American companies hoping to do business in China. Such practices, combined with Beijing’s policy of subsidizing domestic business, can build competitive rivals to American companies seemingly overnight. One of t


Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC on Wednesday that a future “phase two” trade deal with Beijing would ease U.S. tariffs on goods purchased from China even if the next agreements are segmented into multiple rounds.
But the deal is also expected to lower structural barriers for American companies hoping to do business in China.
Such practices, combined with Beijing’s policy of subsidizing domestic business, can build competitive rivals to American companies seemingly overnight.
One of t
Mnuchin says more tariffs will be rolled back in phase two of trade deal Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: thomas franck
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, technology, american, mnuchin, tariffs, companies, trade, phase, china, rolled, forced, question, deal


Mnuchin says more tariffs will be rolled back in phase two of trade deal

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC on Wednesday that a future “phase two” trade deal with Beijing would ease U.S. tariffs on goods purchased from China even if the next agreements are segmented into multiple rounds.

“Just as in this deal there were certain rollbacks, in phase two there will be additional rollbacks,” he told CNBC. “It’s really just a question of — and we’ve said before — phase two may be 2A, 2B, 2C. We’ll see.”

“The first step is really focusing on enforcement, but this gives China a big incentive to get back to the table and agree to the additional issues that are still unresolved,” he added.

Mnuchin joined CNBC hours before top American and Chinese negotiators planned to sign the phase one deal that is expected to include an agreement by China to purchase some $200 billion of U.S. goods over two years.

But the deal is also expected to lower structural barriers for American companies hoping to do business in China. Specifically, the pact is said to address concerns of U.S. executives who have long complained that they are routinely pressured, if not outright forced, to share key technologies in exchange for market access.

Though Beijing denies it forces foreign companies to surrender proprietary technologies, American companies say they’re often compelled to share business secrets through backdoor tactics like joint ventures. Such practices, combined with Beijing’s policy of subsidizing domestic business, can build competitive rivals to American companies seemingly overnight.

One of the thorniest issues between the U.S. and China over the last two years, accusations of forced technology transfers and intellectual property theft, should be remedied in the first phase deal, Mnuchin said.

“It’s not a question of admission, it a question of what they’re going to do,” the Treasury secretary said. “And China has agreed to put together very significant laws to change rules and regulations and have made very strong commitments to our companies that there will not be forced technology going forward.”

Other areas of concern expected to be tackled in the deal include the misuse of pharmaceutical-related intellectual property and access for U.S. financial companies to Chinese markets. Those qualms helped drive President Donald Trump to start a tit-for-tat trade war with China nearly two years ago, when he first announced tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.

“I think [it’s] a very big win for our technology companies, for our businesses and for American workers,” Munchin added. Further, should Beijing fail to abide by the phase one stipulations, Mnuchin said Trump can always reimpose or hike tariffs on Chinese imports.

The feud between the globe’s two largest economies has resulted in each side slapping levies on billions of dollars’ worth of imports and forced major American corporations to shift supply chains throughout Asia.

U.S. farmers, in particular, have taken a heavy hit after China began buying soybeans and other agricultural commodities from Brazil and other South American countries.

— CNBC’s Eunice Yoon contributed reporting.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: thomas franck
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Cramer says ‘tariffs worked,’ Trump’s strategy forced China to agree to a trade deal

CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Wednesday that “tariffs worked” as a means to prod China to agree to a phase one trade deal with the United States. “Tariffs were not supposed to work,” said Cramer, who has all along been a supporter of President Donald Trump’s hard line approach towards China. The centerpiece of the initial trade deal is a pledge by China to purchase an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. goods. It also cut in half to 7.5% the levy rate on about $120 billion worth of other China import


CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Wednesday that “tariffs worked” as a means to prod China to agree to a phase one trade deal with the United States.
“Tariffs were not supposed to work,” said Cramer, who has all along been a supporter of President Donald Trump’s hard line approach towards China.
The centerpiece of the initial trade deal is a pledge by China to purchase an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. goods.
It also cut in half to 7.5% the levy rate on about $120 billion worth of other China import
Cramer says ‘tariffs worked,’ Trump’s strategy forced China to agree to a trade deal Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: matthew j belvedere
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, tariffs, chinese, supposed, trade, cramer, phase, worked, forced, china, agree, worth, deal, strategy, billion, trumps


Cramer says 'tariffs worked,' Trump's strategy forced China to agree to a trade deal

CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Wednesday that “tariffs worked” as a means to prod China to agree to a phase one trade deal with the United States.

“I keep wondering when people are going to recognize that it is historic that tariffs did succeed,” Cramer said on “Squawk on the Street,” shortly before U.S. and Chinese officials were set to sign the initial trade agreement at the White House later in the morning.

“Tariffs were not supposed to work,” said Cramer, who has all along been a supporter of President Donald Trump’s hard line approach towards China.

“The Chinese were supposed to be able to get around them. It didn’t happen,” the “Mad Money” host added. “The Chinese were kind of accepting that they had to get something in order to keep the American market.”

The centerpiece of the initial trade deal is a pledge by China to purchase an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. goods.

The phase one agreement, reached in December, canceled planned U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made smartphones, toys and laptop computers. It also cut in half to 7.5% the levy rate on about $120 billion worth of other China imports.

However, the U.S. is leaving in place 25% tariffs on a vast, $250 billion array of Chinese industrial goods and components used by U.S. manufacturers.

Earlier on Wednesday morning, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC he expects that more U.S. tariffs would be rolled back if a phase two trade deal with China were reached.

Cramer said China has “gone back on so many things after they pledged [then] that you have to keep the tariffs in place just to be able to see … if they’re really going to change their ways.”

— Reuters contributed to this report.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: matthew j belvedere
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Trump signs ‘phase one’ trade deal with China in push to stop economic conflict

Through the deal, the Trump administration aims to resolve some longstanding American concerns about Chinese trade abuses. President Donald Trump signed a partial trade deal with China on Wednesday as the world’s two largest economies try to contain an economic struggle. The Chinese leader called the trade deal “good for China, for the U.S. and for the whole world,” according to a translation. In other words, we’re negotiating with the tariffs,” Trump said. Still, the White House has said it wil


Through the deal, the Trump administration aims to resolve some longstanding American concerns about Chinese trade abuses.
President Donald Trump signed a partial trade deal with China on Wednesday as the world’s two largest economies try to contain an economic struggle.
The Chinese leader called the trade deal “good for China, for the U.S. and for the whole world,” according to a translation.
In other words, we’re negotiating with the tariffs,” Trump said.
Still, the White House has said it wil
Trump signs ‘phase one’ trade deal with China in push to stop economic conflict Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: jacob pramuk
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stop, phase, house, signs, trade, chinese, economic, deal, push, trump, conflict, agreement, tariffs, white, china


Trump signs 'phase one' trade deal with China in push to stop economic conflict

U.S. stocks rose Wednesday before the deal signing. Trump signed off on the agreement after lengthy remarks dishing on impeachment, golf, his 2016 victory, stock market gains, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and July 4 fireworks.

Here are some of the deal’s core pieces ( read the full agreement here ):

The president signed the deal as the House prepared to send articles of impeachment to the Senate and kick-start a trial on whether to convict Trump and remove him from office.

The president said the U.S. and China are “righting the wrongs of the past and delivering a future of economic justice and security for American workers, farmers and families.” He added that the deal has “total and full enforceability.”

The deal takes steps to root out several practices that irked the White House and bipartisan members of Congress, including intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers, in exchange for Chinese market access, according to text released by the White House. It also details a $200 billion increase in Chinese purchases of U.S. goods over two years — a priority for Trump.

Through the deal, the Trump administration aims to resolve some longstanding American concerns about Chinese trade abuses. However, the accord appears to leave questions about how Washington and Beijing will enforce its terms and prevent further tensions.

President Donald Trump signed a partial trade deal with China on Wednesday as the world’s two largest economies try to contain an economic struggle.

President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He shake hands after signing the “phase one” of a US China trade agreement, in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday Jan. 15, 2020, in Washington.

The president thanked administration officials, Republican lawmakers, Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson, Fox Business Network host Lou Dobbs, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and current and former businessmen Steve Schwarzman, Nelson Peltz and Hank Greenberg, among dozens of people he recognized. Chinese officials stood silently next to the U.S. delegation as Trump spoke for nearly an hour before Chinese Vice Premier Liu He delivered a message from Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The Chinese leader called the trade deal “good for China, for the U.S. and for the whole world,” according to a translation. He wrote that “in the next step, the two sides need to implement the agreement in earnest.”

The phase one agreement marks a major step in efforts to rein in a more than 18-month trade war between Washington and Beijing. Trump has pushed to crack down on what he calls China’s abusive trade practices and follow through on one of his core campaign promises.

Investors have looked for signs the U.S. and China want to dial back a tariff crossfire that threatens to wallop the global economy. The deal signed Wednesday brings some welcome relief for businesses that feared the duties — though the bulk of them will stay in place.

“We’re leaving tariffs on, but I will agree to take those tariffs off if we are able to do ‘phase two.’ In other words, we’re negotiating with the tariffs,” Trump said.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters Wednesday that the agreement has “real teeth” to address China’s trade practices, adding that the U.S. will be able to tell by the spring whether it is enforceable. He said American tariffs on Chinese goods will help the administration enforce the accord.

The U.S. aims to start talks on a second piece of the deal before the presidential election in November, Lighthizer said. Last week, Trump said he “might want to wait to finish ’til after the election, because by doing that, I think we can make a little bit better deal, maybe a lot better deal.”

Under the agreement, the Trump administration scrapped tariffs initially set to take effect last month. It also agreed to cut duties on $120 billion in products to 7.5%.

Still, the White House has said it will leave tariffs on another $250 billion in Chinese products in place for now. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said a second phase of the agreement that the U.S. hopes to strike could include more tariff relief.

“Just as in this deal there were certain rollbacks, in phase two there will be additional rollbacks,” he said, adding that China has “a big incentive to get back to the table and agree to the additional issues that are still unresolved.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: jacob pramuk
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China trade truce is seen as ‘fragile’ with analysts still seeing more tariffs as a possibility

Analysts also expect trade skirmishes to crop up elsewhere, and they expect the Trump administration could have Europe in its sights for its next round of tariffs. Stocks were higher Wednesday, as President Donald Trump signed the trade deal with Chinese officials shortly after noon East Coast time. As for the China deal, the U.S. also said it was removing the label of currency manipulator, slapped on China in August, after claims from the U.S. administration that China was intentionally weakeni


Analysts also expect trade skirmishes to crop up elsewhere, and they expect the Trump administration could have Europe in its sights for its next round of tariffs.
Stocks were higher Wednesday, as President Donald Trump signed the trade deal with Chinese officials shortly after noon East Coast time.
As for the China deal, the U.S. also said it was removing the label of currency manipulator, slapped on China in August, after claims from the U.S. administration that China was intentionally weakeni
China trade truce is seen as ‘fragile’ with analysts still seeing more tariffs as a possibility Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: patti domm
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, seen, trump, clifton, tariffs, seeing, fragile, china, europe, trade, expected, possibility, analysts, phase, truce, deal, billion


China trade truce is seen as 'fragile' with analysts still seeing more tariffs as a possibility

President Donald Trump talks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2020, in Washington, before the trade agreement signing. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) Evan Vucci | AP

The “phase one” trade deal between the U.S. and China ends some uncertainties for the global economy, but tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners could continue, even with the reprieve. Analysts also expect trade skirmishes to crop up elsewhere, and they expect the Trump administration could have Europe in its sights for its next round of tariffs. Stocks were higher Wednesday, as President Donald Trump signed the trade deal with Chinese officials shortly after noon East Coast time. The market has been boosted by the prospects for trade peace and the end of escalation in the dispute between the two countries, which until October appeared to be moving forward on new tariffs and counter tariffs.

The S&P 500 has risen 12% since Trump said on Oct. 11 that the U.S. and China came to a substantial deal. Semiconductor stocks, caught in middle of the trade war, are also sharply higher since then, with the VanEck Vectors Semiconductors ETF up more than 18%. Caterpillar, a poster child for U.S.-Chinese trade and the global economy, is up 19% in that period. “There will be continued tension over China—over cyber, over national security, over human rights. Those issues aren’t going to go away, but those issues don’t really matter to the earnings of the S&P 500 companies the way an escalation of tariffs would,” said Daniel Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas. Clifton said, however, the response to the deal could continue to be favorable. “You’ve seen financial conditions loosen and that’s been the biggest benefit of this deal. For example, the yield curve uninverted on the day they announced the deal. The Chinese currency has been tightening relative to the dollar since they announced the deal,” said Clifton. “The truce is working and that’s the most important detail of this all, and we continue to benefit from this.” The phase one trade deal goes a long way in terms of tamping down immediate market concerns about trade, and Trump said China has committed to $200 billion in purchases of American goods and services. Vice President Mike Pence said there would be agricultural purchases worth $40 billion to $50 billion. China is also expected to crack down on fentanyl shipments to the U.S., and the two countries will cooperate on North Korea. Trump also said the deal includes strong protection of intellectual property.

Tech still under a cloud

But the U.S. technology industry remains under a cloud, with no clear resolution over the status of suppliers to Huawei and the company itself, blacklisted by the U.S. for alleged cyber-espionage. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF closed down 1.5% on Wednesday. “They want to have the Huawei situation distanced on a national security path, separate from anything else. I think they’re trying to figure it all out. … How to deal with China and the tech stuff and national security,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. There remains no clear path to enforce aspects of the deal that have to do with China’s theft of intellectual property or the transfer of technology. Mentioned in phase one, it is expected to be a much bigger part of a “phase two” deal. That deal is not expected to be addressed until after the November election even though Trump said the administration would work on a phase two deal as soon as the current deal “kicks in.”

“We think the tensions will remain in 2020,” said Cesar Rojas, Citigroup economist. He said the U.S. used tariffs as leverage in the negotiations for phase one, but now might use things like heavier regulatory reviews for investments into China. “The negotiating tools are going to be investment or potentially other restitution,” he said. Clifton said the U.S. is making progress on other trade fronts, including with the new agreement that Congress is expected to approve shortly with Mexico and Canada, to replace NAFTA. With China out of the way, the new risk is that Trump puts tariffs on Europe both because of a WTO ruling that found Airbus received subsidies and a French digital tax on U.S. companies. The administration has been looking at putting tariffs on French wine and other goods. Clifton said a ruling is expected from the World Trade Organization that Boeing received subsidies, and that could open the door for some accord between the U.S. and Europe. “The one risk is you’re going to see a flare up on Europe,” said Clifton. “That may spook investors and may give investors a reason to take profits after a big run up in stocks…It probably would be a buying opportunity if there was a sell-off on Europe in Q1.” The Washington Post reported Wednesday that Trump threatened to put 25% tariffs on European autos if European countries did not call out violations by Iran of its nuclear treaty. As for the China deal, the U.S. also said it was removing the label of currency manipulator, slapped on China in August, after claims from the U.S. administration that China was intentionally weakening its currency. The deal should help business confidence, with much less risk now of more tariffs with China. The U.S. agreed not to put another round of tariffs on China and to cut back on some that were already in place. That could help the retail sector and manufacturers, but analysts say there is still no finality. “First of all, probably the China commitment might be too ambitious to achieve. it’s still a deal that’s fragile,” said Aichi Amemiya, senior economist at Nomura. “For instance, China is reported to be committed to purchase $200 billion in U.S, goods and services over the next two years. However in order to achieve that goal, China might have to reduce imports form other trading partners very significantly” or make other changes domestically.

Priced in


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: patti domm
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This retailer ordered 35,000 cases of French wine to brace for possible tariffs

Bottles of French wine are displayed for sale in a liquor store on December 3, 2019 in Arlington, Virginia. Though it’s not clear yet whether massive tariffs against French wine will take effect next month, Moore Brothers Wine Co. isn’t taking any chances. “It’s just really terrible,” said David Moore, a co-owner of the sprawling business. “But what we hope to do is make sure that we aren’t doubling prices overnight.” Though the U.S. and China have worked out a “phase one” deal of their respecti


Bottles of French wine are displayed for sale in a liquor store on December 3, 2019 in Arlington, Virginia.
Though it’s not clear yet whether massive tariffs against French wine will take effect next month, Moore Brothers Wine Co. isn’t taking any chances.
“It’s just really terrible,” said David Moore, a co-owner of the sprawling business.
“But what we hope to do is make sure that we aren’t doubling prices overnight.”
Though the U.S. and China have worked out a “phase one” deal of their respecti
This retailer ordered 35,000 cases of French wine to brace for possible tariffs Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: jeff cox
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, york, world, tariffs, 35000, wine, battle, cases, moore, trade, 100, worked, retailer, possible, brace, french, ordered


This retailer ordered 35,000 cases of French wine to brace for possible tariffs

Bottles of French wine are displayed for sale in a liquor store on December 3, 2019 in Arlington, Virginia.

Though it’s not clear yet whether massive tariffs against French wine will take effect next month, Moore Brothers Wine Co. isn’t taking any chances.

The retailer, which operates in New York, New Jersey and Delaware, ordered more than 35,000 cases of imported wine to be delivered by Feb. 1, just in case the White House follows through on its threat for tariffs that could be around 100% and levied on a host of other goods.

“It’s just really terrible,” said David Moore, a co-owner of the sprawling business. “But what we hope to do is make sure that we aren’t doubling prices overnight.”

Wine imports from the European Union already face 25% duties, but the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has floated the idea of hiking them to 100% as part of an ongoing battle over tariffs on Airbus airliners. The USTR did not respond to a request for comment.

Though the U.S. and China have worked out a “phase one” deal of their respective tariff battle, the wine issue is just one of many unresolved trade issues around the world.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: jeff cox
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Phase one trade deal could be less than market hopes: ‘Tariffs have now become a roach motel’

Analysts have said there could be some volatility around the release of the trade deal details. So stocks were rattled, when Bloomberg news service Tuesday afternoon reported that tariffs were not expected to be lifted until a phase two deal. The deal is expected to stop any further tariffs and roll back some 15% tariffs to 7.5% on some Chinese goods. “The assumption was the tariffs would not come off until there was a phase two deal and Trump said the other day there would be no phase two until


Analysts have said there could be some volatility around the release of the trade deal details.
So stocks were rattled, when Bloomberg news service Tuesday afternoon reported that tariffs were not expected to be lifted until a phase two deal.
The deal is expected to stop any further tariffs and roll back some 15% tariffs to 7.5% on some Chinese goods.
“The assumption was the tariffs would not come off until there was a phase two deal and Trump said the other day there would be no phase two until
Phase one trade deal could be less than market hopes: ‘Tariffs have now become a roach motel’ Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-14  Authors: patti domm
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Phase one trade deal could be less than market hopes: 'Tariffs have now become a roach motel'

U.S. President Donald Trump, and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Nov. 9, 2017.

Analysts have said there could be some volatility around the release of the trade deal details. An agreement that is very light on details with no teeth to stop trade abuses could potentially be seen as a negative. So stocks were rattled, when Bloomberg news service Tuesday afternoon reported that tariffs were not expected to be lifted until a phase two deal.

Stocks have been buoyed by optimism around the deal for weeks now. Tuesday was no different, and the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were at all-time highs before a trade-related headline from a news service rattled markets and sent the indexes into negative territory.

Investors have been waiting for details of the “phase one” trade deal , expected to be signed between the U.S. and China Wednesday, but they may already know most of what’s in it and there may be little new.

The report also said the phase two deal was not expected until after the November election, but strategists say that was not a surprise, and a market, looking to sniff out a positive surprise, was dealt a temporary setback.

The deal is expected to stop any further tariffs and roll back some 15% tariffs to 7.5% on some Chinese goods.

“There’s always ‘buy the rumor, sell the news.’ Part of the reason why we had this tremendous, incredible rally last year and especially toward the end of the year, and why we got off to a good start this year, was we had a raft of good news, on earnings, and also on China trade,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “Stocks are not cheap and any bit of news could have an impact on the market.”

Tom Block, Washington policy analyst at Fundstrat, said it is unusual for there to be so few details on a deal that is about to be signed. “Everything I’ve read, and everyone I talked to has said this was basically a standstill agreement with some side things, and we now know one of those side things was that the U.S. dropped that China was a currency manipulator,” he said. “I don’t think that’s a coincidence.”

Block said the deal could still be being finalized, and if there is a sticking point it could be over how China’s commitment to buying U.S. agricultural products was to be worded. He expects to see an agreement on Chinese purchases of agricultural and energy products. There could also be some language protecting U.S. intellectual property.

“This is a real cease-fire. This is the most substance of cease-fire that we’ve seen,” he said.

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, said there was really nothing new in the headline. Stock indexes fluctuated, with the Dow moving back to positive territory.

“It’s not surprising. There was no blueprint to remove the tariffs. We saw that upon the announcement of a deal when they slightly trimmed some of the tariffs from 15% to 7.5% even though they left tariffs on all the existing goods,” Boockvar said. “The assumption was the tariffs would not come off until there was a phase two deal and Trump said the other day there would be no phase two until the after the election. It was always my belief they would not come off until we got a phase two deal. We’re still stuck with these tariffs which are a drag on growth in trade and manufacturing.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-14  Authors: patti domm
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, tariffs, expected, trade, hopes, roach, motel, market, chinese, trump, agreement, details, china, phase, deal


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The potential market sell-off would be ‘a terrible thing to waste’ for investors, Jim Cramer says

“If today’s afternoon pullback turns into a full-blown decline later this week, you need to remember that a sell-off would be a terrible thing to waste,” the “Mad Money” host said. The two countries are preparing to sign a long-awaited, so-called phase one trade deal in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday. Investors are still waiting to hear the full details of the trade deal, but the latest development is one that Cramer, who has been supportive of President Donald Trump’s trade war, approves of. Ou


“If today’s afternoon pullback turns into a full-blown decline later this week, you need to remember that a sell-off would be a terrible thing to waste,” the “Mad Money” host said.
The two countries are preparing to sign a long-awaited, so-called phase one trade deal in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday.
Investors are still waiting to hear the full details of the trade deal, but the latest development is one that Cramer, who has been supportive of President Donald Trump’s trade war, approves of.
Ou
The potential market sell-off would be ‘a terrible thing to waste’ for investors, Jim Cramer says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-14  Authors: tyler clifford
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, tariffs, trade, trading, bank, investors, terrible, selloff, thing, jim, market, cramer, share, earnings, washington, waste, potential, deal


The potential market sell-off would be 'a terrible thing to waste' for investors, Jim Cramer says

Investors got spooked and Wall Street coughed up its gains after word spread that import tariffs could stay in place after a U.S.-China trade agreement is signed Wednesday, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose almost 150 points to its early afternoon highs before closing the session up roughly 32 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reached new heights during the trading day before finishing down about 0.20%.

“If today’s afternoon pullback turns into a full-blown decline later this week, you need to remember that a sell-off would be a terrible thing to waste,” the “Mad Money” host said. “So many companies [are] doing so well. I’d love to buy them, but at this point only on weakness.”

After trading at new highs, the market fell following the news that the rollback of tariffs on Chinese imports would be delayed until Washington and Beijing come to terms on a phase two trade deal. People began worrying about the uncertain path to reach another agreement. The two countries are preparing to sign a long-awaited, so-called phase one trade deal in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday.

Investors are still waiting to hear the full details of the trade deal, but the latest development is one that Cramer, who has been supportive of President Donald Trump’s trade war, approves of. He added that the market “had gotten overbought,” which contributed to the late Tuesday slide.

He said: “I think leaving the tariffs on until China actually follows through with its promises — since they’ve double-crossed us so many times — makes a ton of sense. It should have caused a rally, not a sell-off.”

Outside of trade chatter, Cramer pointed to “astonishing” quarterly reports from Delta Air Lines, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase. The two bank stocks closed up more than 1% as the airliner’s stock rose 3.3% on the day.

J.P. Morgan, buoyed by its performance in bond trading, reported earnings of $2.57 a share, and Citigroup, also powered by its bond trading and consumer businesses, showed earnings of $1.90 per share. Delta posted $1.70 in adjusted earnings per share, benefiting from lower fuel prices and strong travel demand in its latest quarter.

Wells Fargo was the “one fly in the ointment,” Cramer said. The embattled bank, now led by CEO Charles Scharf, saw legal fees eat away at its pocket while low interest rates negatively impacted business. The bank missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Though the market is overheated, Cramer said the banks showed some positive signs about the consumer.

“The statistics from these banks show a robust consumer who’s still spending within her means,” the host said. “That’s an encouraging backdrop, especially if we’re headed into some short-term sell-off after a remarkable run.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-14  Authors: tyler clifford
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, tariffs, trade, trading, bank, investors, terrible, selloff, thing, jim, market, cramer, share, earnings, washington, waste, potential, deal


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The Fed could cut interest rates 3 times this year, UBS predicts

Swiss wealth giant UBS has predicted that the U.S. Federal Reserve could lower interest rates three times in 2020 — a forecast that differs widely from many other projections calling for no change or just one rate cut this year. The CME FedWatch tool places the probability of the Fed standing pat on interest rates at more than 50% through September. “We think they’re going to get that downshift. So, we’re thinking first cut maybe in March but we really need to see … loss of growth momentum,” h


Swiss wealth giant UBS has predicted that the U.S. Federal Reserve could lower interest rates three times in 2020 — a forecast that differs widely from many other projections calling for no change or just one rate cut this year.
The CME FedWatch tool places the probability of the Fed standing pat on interest rates at more than 50% through September.
“We think they’re going to get that downshift.
So, we’re thinking first cut maybe in March but we really need to see … loss of growth momentum,” h
The Fed could cut interest rates 3 times this year, UBS predicts Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-14  Authors: yen nee lee
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, tool, growth, think, ubs, going, theyre, temporary, cut, tariffs, trade, fed, times, predicts, rates, interest


The Fed could cut interest rates 3 times this year, UBS predicts

Swiss wealth giant UBS has predicted that the U.S. Federal Reserve could lower interest rates three times in 2020 — a forecast that differs widely from many other projections calling for no change or just one rate cut this year.

Arend Kapteyn, global head of economic research at UBS, said on Tuesday that tariffs implemented in the trade war between Washington and Beijing would drag down U.S. growth to just 0.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2020.

The U.S. last raised tariffs on Chinese goods in September, with China following up with its own duty increase on a variety of American products. Further tariff hikes initially scheduled for December were put off as both sides agreed to hammer out the so-called phase one trade deal.

“We think this tariff damage is going to push U.S. growth down … that’s actually going to trigger three Fed cuts, which is way off consensus, nobody believes that,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” from the UBS Greater China Conference in Shanghai.

The CME FedWatch tool places the probability of the Fed standing pat on interest rates at more than 50% through September. For the central bank’s meetings in November and December, that probability falls to 47% and and 40.5%. The tool is based on futures pricing from live markets and reflects the views of traders placing real bets on the CME exchange.

Kapteyn noted that Fed officials themselves have shown little inclination to make any moves, with meeting minutes indicating that they’re at “a comfortable hold” and would want to see “a material downshift in the data” before reassessing their position.

“We think they’re going to get that downshift. I think you need quite a bit of additional evidence though before they get there. So, we’re thinking first cut maybe in March but we really need to see … loss of growth momentum,” he said.

Still, Kapteyn stressed that the impact from tariffs could just be temporary and that the U.S. is not headed into a recession.

“Even though we have this big slowdown and these cuts, we don’t think you get to recession level,” he said. “So basically temporary disruption, you get past them pretty quickly and then everything is back to trend.”

— CNBC’s Yun Li contributed to this report.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-14  Authors: yen nee lee
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, tool, growth, think, ubs, going, theyre, temporary, cut, tariffs, trade, fed, times, predicts, rates, interest


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