Investor: The US and China will reach a deal, then markets will jump 15%

And, by end June, (the) deal would be signed,” Wong told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Friday. Wong’s prediction follows the market rally that began at the beginning of this year, roughly coinciding with investors’ increasing expectations that a U.S.-China trade deal could be inked. “Now the investors in China or around the world are expecting a deal to be done. From there, Wong said, markets will be set for another leg up once Trump and Xi reach an accord. China wants all tariffs lifted, and the U.S


And, by end June, (the) deal would be signed,” Wong told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Friday. Wong’s prediction follows the market rally that began at the beginning of this year, roughly coinciding with investors’ increasing expectations that a U.S.-China trade deal could be inked. “Now the investors in China or around the world are expecting a deal to be done. From there, Wong said, markets will be set for another leg up once Trump and Xi reach an accord. China wants all tariffs lifted, and the U.S
Investor: The US and China will reach a deal, then markets will jump 15% Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-22  Authors: tang sue-anne, artyom ivanov, tass, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, tariffs, markets, 15, bit, trade, jump, wong, trump, end, china, investor, deal, reach, xi, investors


Investor: The US and China will reach a deal, then markets will jump 15%

Despite all the back and forth between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s negotiating teams, the U.S. and China will ultimately come to a trade agreement, according to one investor.

When that happens, markets could soar 15 percent or more for the rest of the year, said Jackson Wong, associate director at Huarong International Securities.

“The rumor is (that by the) end of April, the deal would be 90 percent done. And, by end June, (the) deal would be signed,” Wong told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Friday.

Wong’s prediction follows the market rally that began at the beginning of this year, roughly coinciding with investors’ increasing expectations that a U.S.-China trade deal could be inked.

“Now the investors in China or around the world are expecting a deal to be done. They have been expecting since the end of last year. So I think the market has been rallying from that point on,” he said.

The ongoing rally, he said, may continue a bit, but there is also a chance it could “consolidate around the current level for about maybe a few weeks.” From there, Wong said, markets will be set for another leg up once Trump and Xi reach an accord.

Such a deal could also have a positive impact on the real economy worldwide, he said.

His analysis comes amid the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies that began about one year ago. That escalating fight has seen rounds of tariffs imposed on items ranging from soybeans to steel, attempts at reconciliation, and Trump declaring the benefits of a trade war on Twitter. Tensions have eased since the presidents of both nations agreed in December to pause any further tariffs while negotiations continued.

The negotiations are focused on both reducing the U.S. trade deficit with China and eliminating some of the systemic impediments to foreign firms succeeding in Asia’s largest economy.

Wong acknowledged that there have been differences of opinion on both sides, but he said he remains positive that both parties will be able to reach a consensus.

“Talks are going not bad,” Wong told CNBC. “The main differences, in my point of view, (are) solvable. China wants all tariffs lifted, and the U.S. wants a say in the new intellectual property theft and transfer policies.”

“If both countries give in a little bit, so maybe, you know, the tariffs will stay a little bit longer, and then China would give (the U.S.) more control over policies, then they can have a final deal,” he said.

Nonetheless, Wong said, the U.S.-China relationship is still rather weak.

“Both countries are standing on very fragile grounds and any sudden move on either side would break the trust on each other,” he said. “Investors are still cautious and nervous about that until they can decide a date that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can meet. Otherwise, anything can be a wildcard.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-22  Authors: tang sue-anne, artyom ivanov, tass, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, tariffs, markets, 15, bit, trade, jump, wong, trump, end, china, investor, deal, reach, xi, investors


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Trump wants China to ‘double or triple’ its offer to buy US goods in trade negotiations, sources say

U.S. officials seeking a China trade deal are focused on long-term changes to that nation’s economy. In 2018, the U.S. posted a record $891 billion trade deficit with China, according to figures released March 6 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Closing the trade deficit was a pillar of Trump’s 2016 campaign and a promise he wants to keep before he enters re-election season. The worry, two sources said, is that a ballooning trade deficit would dwarf even a trillion-dollar investment that’s spr


U.S. officials seeking a China trade deal are focused on long-term changes to that nation’s economy. In 2018, the U.S. posted a record $891 billion trade deficit with China, according to figures released March 6 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Closing the trade deficit was a pillar of Trump’s 2016 campaign and a promise he wants to keep before he enters re-election season. The worry, two sources said, is that a ballooning trade deficit would dwarf even a trillion-dollar investment that’s spr
Trump wants China to ‘double or triple’ its offer to buy US goods in trade negotiations, sources say Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-21  Authors: kayla tausche
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wants, chinas, negotiations, purchase, trump, trade, offer, lighthizer, buy, sources, deficit, double, say, triple, china, goods


Trump wants China to 'double or triple' its offer to buy US goods in trade negotiations, sources say

U.S. officials seeking a China trade deal are focused on long-term changes to that nation’s economy. But President Donald Trump is set on reducing the trade deficit, and is pushing his negotiators to get China to agree to purchase more goods, according to two people briefed on discussions.

China has offered to purchase up to $1.2 trillion in U.S. energy, agriculture and aircraft products over a period of six years. When the offer was first reported — a month and a half after it was discussed by Trump and President Xi Jinping at the G20 in Buenos Aires — the market jumped, a signal that investors viewed the offer as a substantial bargaining chip to win over the president.

But Trump has long wanted a number “double or triple” China’s $1.2 trillion proposal, these people said, requesting anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions. He renewed his desire for a larger purchase deal in recent weeks, they said, following data that revealed the U.S.-China trade gap was widening.

In 2018, the U.S. posted a record $891 billion trade deficit with China, according to figures released March 6 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The deficit of U.S. goods — the metric of most importance to Trump and his China hawks — reached a record $419 billion. The data showed a sharp decrease in China’s import of U.S. goods in the fourth quarter as trade tensions escalated.

Closing the trade deficit was a pillar of Trump’s 2016 campaign and a promise he wants to keep before he enters re-election season. Rep. Steny Hoyer, the No.2 House Democrat, seized on the data, saying Trump “flunked the test he set for himself.” A White House official declined to comment.

The worry, two sources said, is that a ballooning trade deficit would dwarf even a trillion-dollar investment that’s spread over a number of years. But assembling an exponentially larger proposal would face challenges.

Brad Setser, senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, said China could boost the total figure in its offer if it further opened up its market to U.S. pork, beef, rice or corn, where there’s already existing demand.

But unless China dramatically and permanently shifts its sourcing of goods, or repackages previously disclosed orders, it would be “impossible” to reach a figure in the trillions.

“It’s a little hard to see how you get big numbers with honest accounting,” Setser said.

Further complicating any purchase offer is the limit to the items that could potentially be included. Boeing jets are the biggest-ticket items the Chinese could add, but China’s appetite to buy more has stalled with the global grounding of the 737 Max 8 and 9 jets. And while China wants to buy more semiconductors and advanced technology, U.S. officials have raised security concerns about allowing them to do so.

“If China’s not able to buy more Boeing jets — and China’s not allowed to buy sensitive technology and defense products — there’s not a lot of room to increase the preferred shopping list,” said Gene Ma, head of China Research at the Institute of International Finance.

Trump’s advisors have sought to steer his focus in negotiations to the long-term, or so-called structural, change issues in China’s economy that must be fixed to rebalance the trading relationship going forward. In congressional testimony, television interviews and briefings with reporters, they’ve consistently said no deal will happen without sustainable, enforceable changes.

Chinese officials have continued to propose offers that play to Trump’s deficit desires. Sitting across from Trump in the Oval Office in late January, Vice Premier Liu He announced that China would buy 5 million metric tons of soybeans — an announcement that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer later told reporters took him by surprise.

“The answer is yes — it was a surprise announcement, in the sense that I didn’t know about it until a very short time before,” Lighthizer said on Jan. 31.

In a hearing before the House Ways and Means Committee a month later, Lighthizer talked about the views of Chinese Americans on existing tensions, and the areas where they agree with his own personal stance on talks.

“I have found that Chinese Americans … will say, ‘Hang tough, we need structural change, this is the only way we are going to get structural change,'” Lighthizer told lawmakers. “‘Don’t cave; don’t sell out for soybeans.'”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-21  Authors: kayla tausche
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, wants, chinas, negotiations, purchase, trump, trade, offer, lighthizer, buy, sources, deficit, double, say, triple, china, goods


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If you invested $1,000 in General Motors in 2012, here’s how much you would have now

Shares of automaker General Motors fell more than 3 percent Wednesday after BMW warned of lower profits thanks to international trade tension and potential ripple effects from Brexit. In the same time frame, by comparison, the S&P 500 was up more than 100 percent. While the company’s stock has trended slightly upward over the years, any individual stock can over- or under-perform and past returns do not predict future results. CNBC: GM stock as of Mar. “Countermeasures by the USA’s trading partn


Shares of automaker General Motors fell more than 3 percent Wednesday after BMW warned of lower profits thanks to international trade tension and potential ripple effects from Brexit. In the same time frame, by comparison, the S&P 500 was up more than 100 percent. While the company’s stock has trended slightly upward over the years, any individual stock can over- or under-perform and past returns do not predict future results. CNBC: GM stock as of Mar. “Countermeasures by the USA’s trading partn
If you invested $1,000 in General Motors in 2012, here’s how much you would have now Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-21  Authors: shawn m carter
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stock, impact, trade, heres, motors, invested, industry, general, hit, economic, 1000, gm, company, companys


If you invested $1,000 in General Motors in 2012, here's how much you would have now

Shares of automaker General Motors fell more than 3 percent Wednesday after BMW warned of lower profits thanks to international trade tension and potential ripple effects from Brexit.

Still, if you invested in GM in 2012 — after the company officially came out of bankruptcy and began recovering from the major financial crisis that hit the auto industry — you would have made a profit, although a small one: According to CNBC calculations, a $1,000 investment made then would be worth just over $1,800 as of March 21, 2019, a total return over 80 percent. In the same time frame, by comparison, the S&P 500 was up more than 100 percent.

While the company’s stock has trended slightly upward over the years, any individual stock can over- or under-perform and past returns do not predict future results.

Some analysts anticipate problems for the auto industry overall. Per BMW’s annual report, “political and economic developments in Europe remain increasingly uncertain,” and the “unforeseeable impact of Brexit” could elevate trade tensions with the European Union and China.

CNBC: GM stock as of Mar. 21, 2019

“A possible introduction of further trade barriers … could have a significantly adverse impact on the BMW Group’s operations through less favorable conditions for importing vehicles,” the statement read. “Countermeasures by the USA’s trading partners could slow down global economic growth and have a greater-than-expected adverse impact on the export of vehicles.”

In an email to CNBC last month, CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson said, “we are very concerned about GM’s worsening vehicle sales trends,” which were down more than 13 percent in the fourth quarter, “and the company’s exposure to a slowing China market, which we think could challenge the company’s ability to hit their full year earnings guidance.”

President Donald Trump — who slammed GM in November after the company announced plans to cut 14,000 U.S. and Canadian jobs and cancel some of its popular car models — could also impose tariffs on cars imported to the United States. That idea is causing further investor anxiety.

Trump, who held a rally in Ohio on Wednesday, also put pressure on the company to reopen its plant in the state and reverse its plan to invest $2.65 billion in two of its Brazilian plants in Sao Paulo.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-21  Authors: shawn m carter
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stock, impact, trade, heres, motors, invested, industry, general, hit, economic, 1000, gm, company, companys


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A growing list of companies from FedEx to BMW are warning about the world economy

Corporate giants doing business abroad are painting a dreary picture of the world’s economy. With an ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, Brexit uncertainty weighing on Europe and the U.K., and new weakness out of Japan, some business leaders say it’s harder than ever to rake in profits. This week, top executives at FedEx, BMW, UBS and others described bleak global business conditions while discussing quarterly results. The multinational package delivery service reported sluggish intern


Corporate giants doing business abroad are painting a dreary picture of the world’s economy. With an ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, Brexit uncertainty weighing on Europe and the U.K., and new weakness out of Japan, some business leaders say it’s harder than ever to rake in profits. This week, top executives at FedEx, BMW, UBS and others described bleak global business conditions while discussing quarterly results. The multinational package delivery service reported sluggish intern
A growing list of companies from FedEx to BMW are warning about the world economy Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-20  Authors: kate rooney, stefan wermuth, bloomberg, getty images, luke sharrett, mark schiefelbein, afp
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, companies, quarterly, ongoing, conditions, global, business, bmw, international, worlds, growing, economy, trade, list, revenue, world, fedex, warning


A growing list of companies from FedEx to BMW are warning about the world economy

Corporate giants doing business abroad are painting a dreary picture of the world’s economy.

With an ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, Brexit uncertainty weighing on Europe and the U.K., and new weakness out of Japan, some business leaders say it’s harder than ever to rake in profits.

This week, top executives at FedEx, BMW, UBS and others described bleak global business conditions while discussing quarterly results. Fitch Ratings also “aggressively” cut its forecast for the year.

The head of UBS was among the latest to blame the world’s backdrop for weaker-than-expected results. CEO Ermotti told a conference in London on Wednesday that it “one of the worst first-quarter environments in recent history,” Reuters reported. The Swiss bank slashed another $300 million from 2019 costs after revenue at its investment bank plunged. Investment banking conditions are among the toughest seen in years, especially outside the U.S., he said.

Ermotti’s remarks echo the sentiment from FedEx a day earlier. The multinational package delivery service reported sluggish international revenue on Tuesday as a result of tough exchange rates and ongoing trade battles.

“Slowing international macroeconomic conditions and weaker global trade growth trends continue, as seen in the year-over-year decline in our FedEx Express international revenue,” Chief Financial Officer Alan B. Graf Jr. said in FedEx’s quarterly earnings report.

BMW is another with a less-than-rosy outlook. The German automaker said it expected pretax profit to fall by more than 10 percent in 2019, and its CFO said global conditions make it hard to provide a clear forecast.

“Depending on how conditions develop, our guidance may be subject to additional risks; in particular, the risk of a no-deal Brexit and ongoing developments in international trade policy,” CFO Nicolas Peter said in BMW’s quarterly earnings report Wednesday.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-20  Authors: kate rooney, stefan wermuth, bloomberg, getty images, luke sharrett, mark schiefelbein, afp
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, companies, quarterly, ongoing, conditions, global, business, bmw, international, worlds, growing, economy, trade, list, revenue, world, fedex, warning


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Investors who believe the market’s gotten too calm right now could use these ETFs to hedge

Volatility collapsed as the stock market was quick to fully make back the losses from its December bloodbath. For investors looking for a hedge in case reality falls short of expectations, here are some strategies that worked well in the past when volatility spiked. Long-duration and intermediate-term U.S. Treasury bonds as well as safe-haven gold have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 whenever volatility has surged. The average S&P 500 target for 2019 from the 17 top analysts is 2,947, mor


Volatility collapsed as the stock market was quick to fully make back the losses from its December bloodbath. For investors looking for a hedge in case reality falls short of expectations, here are some strategies that worked well in the past when volatility spiked. Long-duration and intermediate-term U.S. Treasury bonds as well as safe-haven gold have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 whenever volatility has surged. The average S&P 500 target for 2019 from the 17 top analysts is 2,947, mor
Investors who believe the market’s gotten too calm right now could use these ETFs to hedge Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-20  Authors: yun li
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, market, vix, 500, etfs, believe, shows, investors, volatility, calm, hedge, sp, tightening, treasury, gotten, trade, markets, right


Investors who believe the market's gotten too calm right now could use these ETFs to hedge

The market has been eerily quiet, perhaps too quiet.

The Cboe Volatility Index, a measure of the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500 known as the “VIX” or the “fear gauge,” hit 12.37 on Tuesday, its lowest level since October. Volatility collapsed as the stock market was quick to fully make back the losses from its December bloodbath.

But periods of calm like this don’t last much longer, history shows, and it seems the market may be pricing in too rosy a scenario — a completely dovish Federal Reserve, a pro-growth trade deal with China, and an earnings growth pick-up later this year.

For investors looking for a hedge in case reality falls short of expectations, here are some strategies that worked well in the past when volatility spiked.

CNBC analysis using Kensho, a hedge fund analytics tool, found which exchange-traded funds outperform when the VIX pops more than 8 points in a short period of time. A pop of that magnitude would return the volatility gauge to the 20 level where it spent most of the tumultuous fourth quarter.

(The VIX was already hopping a little bit Wednesday morning after FedEx warned that the globe was slowing.)

Long-duration and intermediate-term U.S. Treasury bonds as well as safe-haven gold have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 whenever volatility has surged.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has returned 2 percent amid a 10-day period of market turmoil, and iShares Gold Trust and Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF also held up.

The most imminent risk to break the market peace is the Fed’s policy decision Wednesday, where investors will look for further details about the pivot to patience on tightening and balance-sheet runoff.

“If the Fed fails to communicate an increasingly apprehensive outlook and willingness to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, risk assets will undoubtedly underperform – thereby tightening financial conditions as equity volatility spikes,” Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets’ head of rate strategy said in a note.

To be sure, there are no shortage of reasons to bet that things can stay smooth for a while. The Fed could very well deliver the message investors crave and there are signs that the U.S. and China might soon work up a trade deal.

Wall Street is in fact bullish on stocks for the most part. The average S&P 500 target for 2019 from the 17 top analysts is 2,947, more than 100 points than current levels, a CNBC analysis shows. Credit Suisse raised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 3,025 from 2,925, saying the “receding” risks will drive the market higher.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-20  Authors: yun li
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, market, vix, 500, etfs, believe, shows, investors, volatility, calm, hedge, sp, tightening, treasury, gotten, trade, markets, right


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Donald Trump Jr’s Brexit advice a ‘laugh out loud moment,’ strategist says

Donald Trump Jr’s Brexit advice a ‘laugh out loud moment,’ strategist says6 Hours AgoJustin King, vice chairman and senior adviser at Terra Firma, says the U.S. clearly wants a different trade agreement with the U.K. after Brexit.


Donald Trump Jr’s Brexit advice a ‘laugh out loud moment,’ strategist says6 Hours AgoJustin King, vice chairman and senior adviser at Terra Firma, says the U.S. clearly wants a different trade agreement with the U.K. after Brexit.
Donald Trump Jr’s Brexit advice a ‘laugh out loud moment,’ strategist says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-20
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, says6, loud, terra, trump, advice, strategist, uk, jrs, senior, brexit, wants, trade, laugh, donald, moment, vice


Donald Trump Jr's Brexit advice a 'laugh out loud moment,' strategist says

Donald Trump Jr’s Brexit advice a ‘laugh out loud moment,’ strategist says

6 Hours Ago

Justin King, vice chairman and senior adviser at Terra Firma, says the U.S. clearly wants a different trade agreement with the U.K. after Brexit.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-20
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, says6, loud, terra, trump, advice, strategist, uk, jrs, senior, brexit, wants, trade, laugh, donald, moment, vice


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Auto stocks fall after BMW warns of global economic slowdown, trade trouble

Shares of automakers fell Wednesday after BMW warned of lower profits, citing international trade tension and the potential impact of Brexit as possible drags on global economic growth. BMW executives said the industry faces a fiercely competitive environment, dogged by questions about how tariffs and trade tension between the U.S., China and Europe could affect supply chains, manufacturing and sales. “Political and economic developments in Europe remain increasingly uncertain,” BMW said in its


Shares of automakers fell Wednesday after BMW warned of lower profits, citing international trade tension and the potential impact of Brexit as possible drags on global economic growth. BMW executives said the industry faces a fiercely competitive environment, dogged by questions about how tariffs and trade tension between the U.S., China and Europe could affect supply chains, manufacturing and sales. “Political and economic developments in Europe remain increasingly uncertain,” BMW said in its
Auto stocks fall after BMW warns of global economic slowdown, trade trouble Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-20  Authors: robert ferris, luke sharrett, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stocks, fell, global, vehicles, trouble, auto, impact, bmw, fall, economic, tension, tariffs, slowdown, trade, trading, warns


Auto stocks fall after BMW warns of global economic slowdown, trade trouble

Shares of automakers fell Wednesday after BMW warned of lower profits, citing international trade tension and the potential impact of Brexit as possible drags on global economic growth.

BMW executives said the industry faces a fiercely competitive environment, dogged by questions about how tariffs and trade tension between the U.S., China and Europe could affect supply chains, manufacturing and sales.

The news comes one day after FedEx executives expressed worries over a slowing global economy.

All three Detroit automakers declined in morning trading Wednesday. Shares of Ford fell 2.3 percent, Fiat Chrysler fell 2 percent and General Motors dipped 2.6 percent.

“Political and economic developments in Europe remain increasingly uncertain,” BMW said in its annual report Wednesday. It specifically cited the “unforeseeable impact of Brexit” and U.S. trade tensions with the European Union and China.

Politico also reported Wednesday that President Trump has the legal grounds impose tariffs on cars imported to the United States, further spooking investors.

“A possible introduction of further trade barriers, including anti-dumping customs duties and duties aimed at protecting national security by the U.S. administration, could have a significantly adverse impact on the BMW Group’s operations through less favorable conditions for importing vehicles,” BMW said. “Moreover, countermeasures by the USA’s trading partners could slow down global economic growth and have a greater-than-expected adverse impact on the export of vehicles produced in the USA.”

This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-20  Authors: robert ferris, luke sharrett, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stocks, fell, global, vehicles, trouble, auto, impact, bmw, fall, economic, tension, tariffs, slowdown, trade, trading, warns


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US economic growth is set to slow sharply this year and next, according to CNBC’s Fed survey

U.S. economic growth is set to slow sharply this year and next, according to respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey for March, and weaker global growth and tariffs are seen as the major culprits. Economic growth is seen stepping down below 2 percent in 2020, according to the survey. Source: CNBCThe outlook for slower growth has prompted the 43 survey respondents to lower their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year and next — barely forecasting one hike and some even seeing rate cuts on the horiz


U.S. economic growth is set to slow sharply this year and next, according to respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey for March, and weaker global growth and tariffs are seen as the major culprits. Economic growth is seen stepping down below 2 percent in 2020, according to the survey. Source: CNBCThe outlook for slower growth has prompted the 43 survey respondents to lower their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year and next — barely forecasting one hike and some even seeing rate cuts on the horiz
US economic growth is set to slow sharply this year and next, according to CNBC’s Fed survey Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-19  Authors: steve liesman
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trump, economic, slowing, slow, growth, points, sharply, trade, seen, fed, set, according, survey, cnbcs, tariffs, respondents


US economic growth is set to slow sharply this year and next, according to CNBC's Fed survey

U.S. economic growth is set to slow sharply this year and next, according to respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey for March, and weaker global growth and tariffs are seen as the major culprits.

The average forecast for gross domestic product growth this year is just 2.3 percent, down from 2.44 percent expected in the January survey and a further slowing from the actual 3.1 percent year-over-year pace for the fourth quarter of 2018. Economic growth is seen stepping down below 2 percent in 2020, according to the survey.

Source: CNBC

The outlook for slower growth has prompted the 43 survey respondents to lower their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year and next — barely forecasting one hike and some even seeing rate cuts on the horizon.

Asked about the biggest threats to the US expansion, slowing global growth and protectionist trade policies ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.

“If Trump wants to be a two-term president, he needs to make a China trade deal and start lowering tariffs across the board,” said Hank Smith, co-chief investment officer, Haverford Trust Company. “This will cause business confidence to rise and capital spending to increase, stimulating the economy.”

A weak outlook for growth abroad knocked about 40 basis points (or 0.4 percentage points) off of GDP forecasts this year, according to respondents, who include economists, fund managers and strategists. Tariffs — both those put in place by the Trump administration and retaliatory tariffs from other countries — are estimated to take another 20 basis points off of growth.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-19  Authors: steve liesman
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trump, economic, slowing, slow, growth, points, sharply, trade, seen, fed, set, according, survey, cnbcs, tariffs, respondents


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China should quickly get out of its huge US trade problem

The vigilant members of the China-based American and international chambers of commerce, and the World Trade Organization, will serve as keen observers that China is properly implementing and enforcing its trade regulations. Third, China can benefit from an enhanced International Monetary Fund surveillance, technically called Article IV consultations. Fourth, the IMF consultations and the OECD’s biannual examinations would provide unimpeachable expert opinions on China’s monetary policies and it


The vigilant members of the China-based American and international chambers of commerce, and the World Trade Organization, will serve as keen observers that China is properly implementing and enforcing its trade regulations. Third, China can benefit from an enhanced International Monetary Fund surveillance, technically called Article IV consultations. Fourth, the IMF consultations and the OECD’s biannual examinations would provide unimpeachable expert opinions on China’s monetary policies and it
China should quickly get out of its huge US trade problem Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-18  Authors: dr michael ivanovitch, visual china group, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, quickly, china, trade, examinations, chinas, economic, monetary, americas, american, huge, international, problem, policies


China should quickly get out of its huge US trade problem

First, approach the issue with a sense of urgency it deserves. Promptly begin to diversify Chinese exports away from U.S. markets, and strongly step up purchases of American goods and services to quickly stop and markedly reverse the trend of China’s growing bilateral trade surpluses.

Second, with such a sincere show of good faith, Beijing should adopt regulatory changes offering internationally comparable guarantees for the protection of intellectual property and prohibition of forced technology transfers to Chinese joint-venture partners. China’s apparently large panoply of non-tariff barriers to trade should also be dismantled.

The vigilant members of the China-based American and international chambers of commerce, and the World Trade Organization, will serve as keen observers that China is properly implementing and enforcing its trade regulations.

Third, China can benefit from an enhanced International Monetary Fund surveillance, technically called Article IV consultations. That would make sure that China’s monetary, fiscal and structural economic policies — which include both domestic and foreign trade — are fully in compliance with international rules and best practice policies.

In addition to that, China may also wish to engage in extensive biannual economic examinations with the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development to get an independent expert assessment of the entire spectrum of its economic policies. That’s what the OECD does well, and that could be a very useful source of unbiased advice. Such examinations would also shield China from widely publicized amateurish attacks on its economic management.

Fourth, the IMF consultations and the OECD’s biannual examinations would provide unimpeachable expert opinions on China’s monetary policies and its managed floating exchange rate. That would preserve China’s monetary sovereignty and offer much-needed advice about the country’s highly sensitive capital account transactions.

How China frames those steps within the ongoing trade negotiations with the United States is a matter of its own judgment.

But one thing should be clear: Dragging on the negotiating process while continuing to accumulate China’s huge surpluses on American trades is over. Washington has finally come to the point where it can no longer tolerate inconclusive talk fests while China laughs all the way to the bank.

To be sure, though, getting the trade surplus issue out of the way will not radically improve the U.S.-China relations. That’s impossible as long as America’s security experts consider China a “strategic competitor” and “a revisionist power” determined to challenge America’s world order.

One could expect, however, that a meaningful progress on bilateral trade problems could open more space to address acute security issues in a constructive manner, although, again, there is no guarantee for such an outcome. China’s contested maritime borders, Korean problems and Beijing’s Belt and Road transactions will remain America’s war and peace issues for the foreseeable future.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-18  Authors: dr michael ivanovitch, visual china group, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, quickly, china, trade, examinations, chinas, economic, monetary, americas, american, huge, international, problem, policies


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Asian stocks rise as investors await Federal Reserve meeting

Major Asian stock markets closed higher on Monday as investors awaited developments on the U.S.-China trade front.The U.S. Federal Reserve was also set to begin its March policy meeting later in the week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose around 1 percent in its final hour of trading. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China looked to be closer to a trade deal, according to a Xinhua news report that both sides have made “concrete progress” on the text of the trade agreement. The news comes after CNBC report


Major Asian stock markets closed higher on Monday as investors awaited developments on the U.S.-China trade front.The U.S. Federal Reserve was also set to begin its March policy meeting later in the week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose around 1 percent in its final hour of trading. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China looked to be closer to a trade deal, according to a Xinhua news report that both sides have made “concrete progress” on the text of the trade agreement. The news comes after CNBC report
Asian stocks rise as investors await Federal Reserve meeting Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-18  Authors: eustance huang
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, federal, meeting, await, shares, shenzhen, trade, rose, stocks, deal, rise, president, chinese, reserve, investors, index, close, asian, presumably


Asian stocks rise as investors await Federal Reserve meeting

Major Asian stock markets closed higher on Monday as investors awaited developments on the U.S.-China trade front.The U.S. Federal Reserve was also set to begin its March policy meeting later in the week.

Mainland Chinese shares advanced on the day, as the Shanghai composite jumped 2.47 percent to close at 3,096.42 and the Shenzhen component gained 3.067 percent to finish at 9,843.43. The Shenzhen composite also added 2.706 percent to close at 1,685.79.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose around 1 percent in its final hour of trading. Shares of rail operator MTR declined about 0.3 percent after a train collision disrupted services in the city.

The Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 0.62 percent to close at 21,584.50 as shares of index heavyweights Fast Retailing, Softbank Group and Fanuc all advanced. The Topix index also added 0.69 percent to finish at 1,613.68.

Over in South Korea, the Kospi closed 0.16 percent higher at 2,179.49 as shares of automaker Hyundai Motor jumped 2.48 percent. The ASX 200 in Australia gained 0.25 percent to close at 6,190.50, with most sectors rising.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and China looked to be closer to a trade deal, according to a Xinhua news report that both sides have made “concrete progress” on the text of the trade agreement.

The news comes after CNBC reported Thursday that Chinese negotiators suggest combining a state visit to the U.S. with the signing of a trade deal. Beijing wants a deal to be fully ironed out before Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with U.S. President Donald Trump.

“While there is presumably a strong US political imperative to get a deal done ahead of next year’s elections, and presumably China is keen to bed down this issue, and while we expect a deal to be proclaimed, we can only believe it once it’s seen,” David de Garis, a director and senior economist at National Australia Bank, said in a morning note.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-03-18  Authors: eustance huang
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, federal, meeting, await, shares, shenzhen, trade, rose, stocks, deal, rise, president, chinese, reserve, investors, index, close, asian, presumably


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