After elections, Japan’s leader Abe will be seeking a big win on trade

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his ruling coalition party are set for a victory at the polls on Sunday. Next, he’ll be seeking out a big win in his dealings with other countries — such as trade, according to analysts. Major post-election priorities would include trade talks with the U.S., as well as tackling the ongoing wartime forced labor dispute with South Korea that has spilled over into trade, they said. Those talks with the U.S. are going to be first on the agenda for Abe, accordin


Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his ruling coalition party are set for a victory at the polls on Sunday. Next, he’ll be seeking out a big win in his dealings with other countries — such as trade, according to analysts. Major post-election priorities would include trade talks with the U.S., as well as tackling the ongoing wartime forced labor dispute with South Korea that has spilled over into trade, they said. Those talks with the U.S. are going to be first on the agenda for Abe, accordin
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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-19  Authors: grace shao
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, leader, south, going, wartime, big, elections, harris, trade, korea, win, japans, japanese, seeking, abe, talks, women


After elections, Japan's leader Abe will be seeking a big win on trade

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his ruling coalition party are set for a victory at the polls on Sunday. Next, he’ll be seeking out a big win in his dealings with other countries — such as trade, according to analysts.

Major post-election priorities would include trade talks with the U.S., as well as tackling the ongoing wartime forced labor dispute with South Korea that has spilled over into trade, they said.

“Abe is looking for a big foreign policy win. He wants to solve one of these long-standing issues, whether it is territorial disputes with Russia, the abductee issue with North Korea, now finding a way out of the U.S.-Japan trade talks with the U.S.-Japan relations intact, ” said Tobias Harris, senior vice president at advisory company Teneo.

Tackling such major foreign policy issues will be taking up most of Abe’s focus going forward, he concluded.

Those talks with the U.S. are going to be first on the agenda for Abe, according to Harris. Both countries are reportedly working on a trade deal which could involve Japan offering American farmers new access to its markets in exchange for Washington reducing tariffs on certain Japanese auto parts.

The U.S. “is going to insist on trying to get some sort of partial deal done that focuses on agriculture, to give (Donald) Trump a political victory heading into 2020, ” said Harris, referring to the U.S. elections in 2020.

Meanwhile, amid the dispute with Seoul, Abe’s tough stance in imposing restrictions on exports of high-tech materials to South Korea — used by its critical tech sector — has been “certainly popular” with his party supporters who hold “a lot of bitter feelings,” said Harris.

Tensions with South Korea have rapidly worsened in recent weeks over the treatment of “comfort women” — women forced to work in Japanese wartime brothels — as well as the compensation of South Korean labor during World War II.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-19  Authors: grace shao
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, leader, south, going, wartime, big, elections, harris, trade, korea, win, japans, japanese, seeking, abe, talks, women


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European stocks slightly higher on hopes of a Fed rate cut; Publicis down 8.5%

European stocks traded cautiously higher on Friday as market players increase their bets the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month. Industrials were the strongest performers with a 0.7% climb while media stocks fell 0.7% on the back of a sharp share price fall for French advertiser Publicis. New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed should “act quickly” while the economy is slowing and rates are low. However, a New York Fed spokesperson tried to temper those expectation


European stocks traded cautiously higher on Friday as market players increase their bets the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month. Industrials were the strongest performers with a 0.7% climb while media stocks fell 0.7% on the back of a sharp share price fall for French advertiser Publicis. New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed should “act quickly” while the economy is slowing and rates are low. However, a New York Fed spokesperson tried to temper those expectation
European stocks slightly higher on hopes of a Fed rate cut; Publicis down 8.5% Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-19  Authors: elliot smith ryan browne, elliot smith, ryan browne
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, target, stocks, rate, williams, trade, billion, hopes, 85, shares, slightly, european, higher, publicis, york, fed, cut


European stocks slightly higher on hopes of a Fed rate cut; Publicis down 8.5%

European stocks traded cautiously higher on Friday as market players increase their bets the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 was trading just above the flatline toward midday, having pared earlier gains. Industrials were the strongest performers with a 0.7% climb while media stocks fell 0.7% on the back of a sharp share price fall for French advertiser Publicis.

Markets were initially buoyed by comments from a top Fed official on Thursday that suggested the central bank would implement a pre-emptive “insurance” rate cut aimed at averting a major slump in economic growth.

New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed should “act quickly” while the economy is slowing and rates are low. “It’s better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold,” he said in a speech Thursday.

However, a New York Fed spokesperson tried to temper those expectations after Williams’ speech, telling CNBC that his comments were part of an academic talk and “not about potential policy actions.”

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have given oil prices a boost. The U.S. said it had shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global crude flows. But Iran later denied the claims.

Elsewhere, investors looked for signs of progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute. U.S. and Chinese officials spoke over the phone Thursday, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggesting face-to-face talks could follow.

In terms of individual stocks, shares of Galapagos climbed 7.1% in morning trade after KBC Securities raised its price target on the Amsterdam-listed stock. AB InBev shares climbed 4.3% after it announced the sale of its Australian unit to Asahi.

At the other end of the European blue chip index, Publicis saw its shares fall 8.5% in early trade to their lowest level since December 2012, after the French advertising giant cut its revenue target following disappointing second-quarter results.

As for economic data, the European Central Bank said Friday that in the 12-month period to May, the euro zone’s current-account surplus widened to 30 billion euros ($33.7 billion) from 22 billion in April.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-19  Authors: elliot smith ryan browne, elliot smith, ryan browne
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, target, stocks, rate, williams, trade, billion, hopes, 85, shares, slightly, european, higher, publicis, york, fed, cut


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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: CEOs pulling supply chains out of China

Companies are moving their supply chains out of China instead of waiting for a resolution of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink told CNBC on Friday. “We’re hearing from CEOs that more and more supply chains are moving out of China right now, ” Fink said on “Squawk Box.” “People are not waiting, companies are not waiting to see what the outcome is.” Companies began announcing in May that they would move from China to Vietnam, as China and the U.S.


Companies are moving their supply chains out of China instead of waiting for a resolution of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink told CNBC on Friday. “We’re hearing from CEOs that more and more supply chains are moving out of China right now, ” Fink said on “Squawk Box.” “People are not waiting, companies are not waiting to see what the outcome is.” Companies began announcing in May that they would move from China to Vietnam, as China and the U.S.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: CEOs pulling supply chains out of China Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-19  Authors: jessica bursztynsky, matthew j belvedere
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, chains, supply, trade, vietnam, starting, larry, companies, waiting, moving, blackrock, fink, china, ceos, ceo, pulling, worlds


BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: CEOs pulling supply chains out of China

Companies are moving their supply chains out of China instead of waiting for a resolution of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink told CNBC on Friday.

“We’re hearing from CEOs that more and more supply chains are moving out of China right now, ” Fink said on “Squawk Box.” “People are not waiting, companies are not waiting to see what the outcome is.”

The trade fight between the world’s two largest economies has been going on for about a year, and businesses are starting to feel the repercussions.

President Donald Trump has slapped 25% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and continues to threaten duties on an additional $325 billion of goods as trade negotiations continue.

More than 50 multinational companies are moving production out of China, including Apple, Nintendo and Dell, CNBC previously reported. Companies began announcing in May that they would move from China to Vietnam, as China and the U.S. stepped up tit-for-tat duties.

Brooks Running — which is part of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway — said in May it would be “predominantly in Vietnam by the end of the year,” adding that about 8,000 jobs will move there from China.

At the same, the Chinese economy is starting to lag, having grown just 6.2% in its second quarter. That’s the weakest rate in at least 27 years. Trade data released last week showed China’s June exports fell 1.3% year over year due to the tariffs.

“I do believe the trend in China continues to be downward, ” said Fink, co-founder of the world’s largest money manager. “I think long term, China knows they need to find ways to stimulate more of their domestic economy.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-19  Authors: jessica bursztynsky, matthew j belvedere
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, chains, supply, trade, vietnam, starting, larry, companies, waiting, moving, blackrock, fink, china, ceos, ceo, pulling, worlds


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Major gold bull markets are rare, but some investors are betting one is here

Gold has been on fire this year, and some investors think the precious metal is poised to do something it has only done twice since World War II: enter a major bull market. In its strictest sense, a bull market is considered to be a gain of more than 20% from the most recent low. But pops like the one that just occurred aren’t considered a genuine bull market by most investors but rather just a cyclical upswing. Gold is also used by investors as a safe haven to trade amid geopolitical tensions.


Gold has been on fire this year, and some investors think the precious metal is poised to do something it has only done twice since World War II: enter a major bull market. In its strictest sense, a bull market is considered to be a gain of more than 20% from the most recent low. But pops like the one that just occurred aren’t considered a genuine bull market by most investors but rather just a cyclical upswing. Gold is also used by investors as a safe haven to trade amid geopolitical tensions.
Major gold bull markets are rare, but some investors are betting one is here Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-19  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, stocks, investors, markets, betting, policy, market, bull, gold, yields, rates, major, rare, inflation


Major gold bull markets are rare, but some investors are betting one is here

Gold has been on fire this year, and some investors think the precious metal is poised to do something it has only done twice since World War II: enter a major bull market.

The metal is trading above $1,400 per ounce for the first time since 2013 and is up more than 12% year to date. That also represents a rally of more than 35% since it broke below $1,100 per ounce in late 2015.

In its strictest sense, a bull market is considered to be a gain of more than 20% from the most recent low. But pops like the one that just occurred aren’t considered a genuine bull market by most investors but rather just a cyclical upswing. Instead they would like to see a rally that lasts for years and involves bigger gains.

Gold could build on these recent gains as the Federal Reserve gets set to lower rates, U.S. economic activity slows and trade tensions remain. Historically, gold has rallied when the Fed cuts because such moves depress bond yields and the U.S. dollar. Gold is also used by investors as a safe haven to trade amid geopolitical tensions.

“If our judgment is correct and the U.S. economy is softening and inflation will fall moving forward and yields are going to stay low for an extended period of time, then that’s bullish for gold,” said Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro.

Investors are betting the Fed will cut interest rates at its July 30-31 policy meeting. Market expectations for a 25 basis-point cut are at 58.9%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Expectations for a 50 basis-point decrease are at 41.1%.

A rate cut would come at a time when policymakers and investors are worried about the U.S. economy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on July 10 that business investments have slowed across the U.S. recently as “crosscurrents ” from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and slower economic growth overseas dampen the outlook on the U.S. economy. At the same time, inflation remains stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% target.

China and the U.S. have been engaged in a trade war for more than a year, exchanging tariffs on billions of dollars worth of their goods in that time. The two countries agreed to restart trade talks late last month. But President Donald Trump said Tuesday the two sides still had a long way to go before they reached a deal.

In Europe, manufacturing activity contracted last month, according to data from IHS Markit. Manufacturing activity in the region was hit by a “challenging economic environment” amid trade tensions and the “political uncertainties.” Data sets like this led European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to clear the path for more stimulus in the region.

This environment of easier monetary policy hits the sweet spot for gold.

“Gold is often thought of as an inflation hedge, yet the two have not been correlated over the past 20 years,” Phillip Colmar, founding partner at MRB Partners, said in a note earlier this month. “Instead, gold thrives and core consumer price inflation tends to rise in an environment where policymakers are deliberately and persistently keeping policy rates and bond yields anchored below nominal GDP growth (i.e. fueling growth and inflation with an easy policy), which was the case of the 1960s and 1970s.”

Colmar added he would not “chase” gold at current levels, saying “conditions are overbought.” However, “we view the recent rise in gold prices as a market-based signal that central banks are providing more reflation (via lower interest rates and bond yields) than is currently necessary to support the global economy.”

The last major bull market in gold lasted from the late 1990s until 2011. The one before that ran between the late 1960s and 1980. Gold benefited from the Fed lowering interest rates during both of those periods, as the central bank’s measures helped spur inflation in the U.S.

To be sure, stocks have also gotten a boost from easier monetary policy. In fact, historically low interest rates have been one of the biggest catalysts for stocks during their current bull market, which is the longest on record. These measures allow companies to borrow money at a cheaper rate so they can grow their businesses or buy back stock.

But Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, thinks it might be time to favor the yellow metal over stocks, saying central banks are about to spark a “paradigm shift” in investing with this round of monetary easing.

Dalio said in a LinkedIn post that assets like stocks “are unlikely to be good real returning investments and that those that will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant, such as gold.”

“Additionally, … most investors are underweighted in such assets, meaning that if they just wanted to have a better balanced portfolio to reduce risk, they would have more of this sort of asset. For this reason, I believe that it would be both risk-reducing and return-enhancing to consider adding gold to one’s portfolio, ” he added.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-19  Authors: fred imbert
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trade, stocks, investors, markets, betting, policy, market, bull, gold, yields, rates, major, rare, inflation


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Week ahead: Earnings, GDP expected to show sluggish growth as investors await rate cut

Drew Angerer | Getty ImagesSluggish economic and earnings growth will be a theme in markets in the week ahead, as investors await a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the month. More than a quarter of the S&P 500 companies report earnings in the coming week, the second big week of the second quarter reporting season. Slower economyAs earnings growth was muted in the second quarter, so was the pace of economic gains. If growth comes in as expected, it would be the first quarter where growth was


Drew Angerer | Getty ImagesSluggish economic and earnings growth will be a theme in markets in the week ahead, as investors await a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the month. More than a quarter of the S&P 500 companies report earnings in the coming week, the second big week of the second quarter reporting season. Slower economyAs earnings growth was muted in the second quarter, so was the pace of economic gains. If growth comes in as expected, it would be the first quarter where growth was
Week ahead: Earnings, GDP expected to show sluggish growth as investors await rate cut Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-19  Authors: patti domm
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, await, investors, trade, gdp, market, rate, cut, roth, fed, expected, companies, earnings, growth, sluggish, quarter, week


Week ahead: Earnings, GDP expected to show sluggish growth as investors await rate cut

Traders and financial professionals work at the opening bell on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), January 2, 2019. Drew Angerer | Getty Images

Sluggish economic and earnings growth will be a theme in markets in the week ahead, as investors await a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the month. More than a quarter of the S&P 500 companies report earnings in the coming week, the second big week of the second quarter reporting season. FAANG names, like Alphabet and Amazon, and blue chips from McDonald’s to Boeing and United Technologies are among the more than 130 companies reporting. There is also some key economic data, including Friday’s second quarter GDP, which should show a slowing to 1.8% from the first quarter’s 3.1% pace, according to Refinitiv. On Thursday, durable goods are reported and will include an update on businesses investment. There are also existing home sales Tuesday, new home sales Wednesday and advance economic indicators Thursday. But there will be no Fed speakers, after a parade of central bank officials in the past week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The most impactful comments, however, came Thursday from New York Fed President John Williams, who set off a debate about how much the Fed could cut rates at its July 30-31 meeting — 25 or 50 basis points. Even as the New York Fed later said Williams comments were not about current policy, market pros took heed of his words about how central bankers should “act quickly.”

Fed dominates

Fed officials do not speak publicly in the days ahead of policy meetings, but market pros will find plenty to debate. Fed funds futures were predicting a 43% chance of a 50 basis point cut in July, after shooting as high as 70% Thursday afternoon. “For sure, the Fed is going to dominate for next week. I think we’ll get at least a 25 basis point cut. I’m thinking we’re not going to get 50 basis point cut…The Fed has been burned when it’s been bold,” said Tony Roth, chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust. Roth said he believes the market is already pricing in a quarter-point cut, and he does not see the Fed’s rate cut as much of a longer-term catalyst for stocks. If it trims by a half percentage point, he expects just a short-term pop.

Economists believe the Fed will cut interest rates even though recent data has improved. That’s in part because Powell has stressed the Fed is focused on the global economic slowdown, trade wars and low inflation, and that it will do what it takes to keep the economy expanding. “The only real catalyst that would really help the market would be if there was a trade deal with China,” Roth said. “I think the likelihood of that is less than 10%. We’re very pessimistic on the possibility of a real deal with China prior to the [2020 presidential] election.” So, in the void ahead of the Fed’s meeting, the market will be watching earnings. As earnings rolled out this past week, stocks took a rest from their record-setting streak, as some companies lowered forecasts and most beat earnings and revenue estimates. As of Friday morning, 77% of the roughly 80 companies reporting had beaten earnings estimates, and 65% topped revenue forecasts, according to Refinitiv. Based on actual reports and forecasts, earnings per share for the S&P companies are expected to be up 1% in the second quarter. That is up from expectations that the profit growth would be slightly negative this quarter. “If you look at the numbers, we’re above the averages for top and bottom line beats, but at the same time when you look at revisions, every day we’re getting revisions for third and fourth quarter, and they’re coming down.There’s a real worry of an earnings recession, when you get out into the third and fourth quarter and out to next year,” Roth said. Roth said he’s currently neutral on risk assets, and he sees a slowdown brewing in the smallest U.S. companies that could spread up the food chain. “We do see those fundamental cracks in the economy in small business and the small business labor market, and on top of that you have these big macro risks out there,” such as trade and the upcoming election, Roth said.

Slower economy

As earnings growth was muted in the second quarter, so was the pace of economic gains. If growth comes in as expected, it would be the first quarter where growth was under 2% since the first quarter of 2017. Economists are watching to see how consumer spending fared in the quarter, after a recent pickup and also whether business inventories are declining. “The data we need is not Q2. What’s at risk is the growth and magnitude of the Fed rate cut. I don’t think Q2 is going to have much impact on the Fed’s thinking,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “It’s really how Q3 is progressing. It seems to me the economy softened in April and May and picked up in June with jobs data, retail sales and manufacturing sector.” Chandler said investors will also be focused on the European Central Bank, which some economists believe could cut its overnight deposit rate to negative 0.5% from negative 0.4% currently when it meets Thursday. Chandler said odds are about 50% for the rate cut, which many also expect in September. “While we’re waiting for the Fed to figure out whether it’s 25 or 50 basis points, and we’re waiting for the ECB to get all its forms sorted out … the emerging markets are pushing ahead,” said Chandler, noting Russia and Turkey could cut rates in the next several days, after similar moves in the past week by South Africa, South Korea and Indonesia. “It just makes the story more global. You’re seeing the trade numbers from China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea weaken. You’re seeing exports form China suffer. Exports from all of Asia are suffering,” he said. “The big surprise for China and Japan has also been on the import side. The declines in their imports is really someone else’s [drop in] exports.”

Rate cuts and currency wars

Dollar strength has been a consequence of the trade war, and Fed action could help turn it around. “If the Fed fails to move, you’re going to end up with an increasingly stronger dollar,” which impacts corporate earnings, Roth said. “The dollar is quite strong and is increasingly going to be a headwind for U.S. companies. It hasn’t appreciated that much in 12 months, but if we see a divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and the rest of the world, you would see a carry trade develop where people would want to buy assets in the U.S.,” he said. The dollar index was slightly higher on the week, but Wall Street has been focused on President Donald Trump’s negative comments on the currency’s strength. As Trump has criticized the Fed, he also complains that other central banks manipulate their currencies to give them an edge in trade. Trump has said the Fed should already be cutting rates, something it hasn’t done since December 2008. A number of Wall Street strategists have said they now believe it is possible that the U.S. government could intervene to weaken the dollar, but that would be unlikely.

Calendar for the Week Ahead


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-19  Authors: patti domm
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, await, investors, trade, gdp, market, rate, cut, roth, fed, expected, companies, earnings, growth, sluggish, quarter, week


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More than 50 companies reportedly pull production out of China due to trade war

The trade war between the U.S. and China has dragged on for more than a year with 25% tariffs placed on $200 billion of Chinese goods. American personal computer makers HP and Dell could move up to 30% of their notebook production in China to Southeast Asia, Nikkei reported. Japan’s Nintendo is also going to pull a portion of its video game console production from China to Vietnam, according to Nikkei. Not only are foreign companies rethinking its production location, a handful of Chinese compan


The trade war between the U.S. and China has dragged on for more than a year with 25% tariffs placed on $200 billion of Chinese goods. American personal computer makers HP and Dell could move up to 30% of their notebook production in China to Southeast Asia, Nikkei reported. Japan’s Nintendo is also going to pull a portion of its video game console production from China to Vietnam, according to Nikkei. Not only are foreign companies rethinking its production location, a handful of Chinese compan
More than 50 companies reportedly pull production out of China due to trade war Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18  Authors: yun li
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, tariffs, chinese, pull, production, companies, china, 50, reportedly, war, according, trade, nikkei, moving


More than 50 companies reportedly pull production out of China due to trade war

The pace of companies moving production out of China is accelerating as more than 50 multinationals from Apple to Nintendo to Dell are rushing to escape the punitive tariffs placed by the U.S., according to the Nikkei Asian review.

The trade war between the U.S. and China has dragged on for more than a year with 25% tariffs placed on $200 billion of Chinese goods. President Donald Trump is still threatening to slap duties on another $325 billion of goods. In wake of the intensifying battle, more and more companies announced plans or are considering shifting manufacturing from China.

American personal computer makers HP and Dell could move up to 30% of their notebook production in China to Southeast Asia, Nikkei reported. Apple has asked its major suppliers to assess the cost implications of moving 15% to 30% of their production capacity from China to India, according to an earlier report from the Nikkei.

Japan’s Nintendo is also going to pull a portion of its video game console production from China to Vietnam, according to Nikkei.

Not only are foreign companies rethinking its production location, a handful of Chinese companies are also leaving China. Chinese multinational electronics company TCL is moving its TV production to Vietnam, while Chinese tire maker Sailun Tire is transitioning its manufacturing line to Thailand, Nikkei reported.

The prolonged trade battle seems to be taking a toll on the Chinese economy. Data on Monday showed its economic growth slowed to 6.2% in the second quarter — the weakest rate in at least 27 years.

Trump claimed the slower growth is evidence that China is losing the trade war as the country faces an exodus of companies.

“The United States Tariffs are having a major effect on companies wanting to leave China for non-tariffed countries. Thousands of companies are leaving. This is why China wants to make a deal,” Trump said in a twitter post on Monday.

—Click here to read the original story from the Nikkei Asian Review.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18  Authors: yun li
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, tariffs, chinese, pull, production, companies, china, 50, reportedly, war, according, trade, nikkei, moving


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What Brexit could mean for the US economy

After three long years of negotiations and the possibility of a no-deal Brexit rising every day, economists have predicted what it could all mean for the U.S. economy and its financial markets when the U.K. does finally leave the EU. ‘America first’ trade deal? I also find it hard to imagine a trade deal being agreed, at least while Trump is still in power. “The president’s idea of a trade deal may not entirely coincide with some people in the U.K.’s idea of a trade deal. ” “But stocks quickly r


After three long years of negotiations and the possibility of a no-deal Brexit rising every day, economists have predicted what it could all mean for the U.S. economy and its financial markets when the U.K. does finally leave the EU. ‘America first’ trade deal? I also find it hard to imagine a trade deal being agreed, at least while Trump is still in power. “The president’s idea of a trade deal may not entirely coincide with some people in the U.K.’s idea of a trade deal. ” “But stocks quickly r
What Brexit could mean for the US economy Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18  Authors: holly ellyatt
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, deal, uk, minister, president, mean, financial, uks, trump, eu, trade, economy, brexit


What Brexit could mean for the US economy

After three long years of negotiations and the possibility of a no-deal Brexit rising every day, economists have predicted what it could all mean for the U.S. economy and its financial markets when the U.K. does finally leave the EU. A current leadership race to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May has largely put Brexit on hold, but whoever wins the contest — the former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson or the incumbent Jeremy Hunt — will have to quickly turn his attention to the issue, given an October 31 deadline to leave the bloc. The effect Brexit will have on the U.S. economy, let alone the U.K.’s, will largely depend on what form the departure takes and how closely aligned the U.K. stays to the EU – and to what extent this dictates Britain’s new trading relationships. Pro-Brexit campaigners want the U.K. to forge trade deals with countries outside the bloc but it cannot negotiate these while still inside the EU — which unsurprisingly remains the U.K.’s largest trading partner as a bloc. The U.S. is the U.K.’s largest single-country trading partner.

It’s currently uncertain whether the U.K.’s new prime minister would take the country out of the EU without a deal in place, rather than Parliament finally approving some sort of formal deal. Some Brexiteers have insisted that the U.K. must now leave the EU come what may on October 31 and believe a “no deal” Brexit is preferable than a potentially interminable alliance with the EU that resembles partial membership.

‘America first’ trade deal?

U.S. trade deficits (where it imports more than it exports) with any given country are a bugbear of President Donald Trump and his trade and tariff disputes with China and the EU have reflected this. The U.K. has largely escaped Trump’s wrath, however, as the U.S. has a trade surplus with the U.K.

President Donald Trump attends a Ceremonial Welcome at Buckingham Palace on June 03, 2019 in London, England. Samir Hussein | WireImage | Getty Images

U.S. goods and services trade with United Kingdom totaled an estimated $262.3 billion in 2018, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, with exports at $141.1 billion and imports at $121.2 billion, giving the U.S. a goods and services trade surplus of $19.9 billion in 2018. Trump had promised the U.K. a “phenomenal” trade deal post-Brexit, but not everyone is convinced that the U.K.’s cherished “special relationship” with the U.S. will translate into such a mutually beneficial trade deal. For one, IHS Markit’s Vice Chairman Dan Yergin told CNBC that “the challenge for Britain will be to make the ‘special relationship’ very special.” There are question marks over what a trade deal would entail but Trump also caused a furor during his recent U.K. state visit when he said “everything is on the table” when it came to trade talks and included Britain’s closely-guarded health service, the NHS.

‘Political non-starters’

Capital Economics’ Senior U.S. Economist Andrew Hunter believes that the U.S. really doesn’t have that much to gain – or lose – from a disorderly Brexit, or even a trade deal, given that U.S. exports only account for 0.7% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). “There may well be an attempt on the U.K. side at least to foster a closer economic relationship with the U.S. to make up for the loss of ties with the EU, and a comprehensive U.S.-U.K. trade deal would have the potential to provide a modest boost to both economies,” he said. “But in the case of the U.S. that boost really would be pretty miniscule. I also find it hard to imagine a trade deal being agreed, at least while Trump is still in power. The U.S. administration wants any deal to include significant access to the U.K. agriculture sector and possibly even the NHS, both of which are surely political non-starters from the U.K. government’s perspective,” he added.

US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Theresa May shake hands during a joint press conference at the Foreign & Commonwealth Office during the second day of the President’s State Visit on June 4, 2019 in London, England. WPA Pool | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The U.K.’s outgoing Finance Minister Philip Hammond summed up how the U.K. government might feel when it comes to drawing up a trade pact with the U.S., suspecting that any deal was very likely to favor America. “Trade deals are intrinsically complex and what I hear the president say as well as ‘We want to do a U.S.-U.K. trade deal,’ what I hear the president say is ‘America first’,” he said Monday. “The president’s idea of a trade deal may not entirely coincide with some people in the U.K.’s idea of a trade deal. ”

Market volatility

Many business leaders dread a “no deal” cliff-edge scenario for the U.K., as it would mean that the country abruptly leaves with no transition period in place which would allow businesses to adjust to life outside the EU. It would cause market volatility too, economists note. “The Fed has explicitly mentioned Brexit uncertainty as one potential factor weighing on the U.S. outlook, and it’s certainly possible that a no deal Brexit could cause a period of volatility in global financial markets which, if it was sustained, might weigh on U.S. growth,” Hunter told CNBC. “That said, it’s worth remembering that the financial market volatility following the referendum result in 2016 was unwound pretty quickly, and we suspect the same would happen again. ” The original Brexit vote caused the Dow Jones industrial average to drop by 5% or 6% in June 2016, and many U.S. economists thought Brexit could shave as much as 0.5 percentage points from the country’s GDP growth. “But stocks quickly recovered, and so too did the forecasts that Brexit would damage the U.S. economy,” Chris Rupkey, managing director and chief financial economist at MUFG in New York, told CNBC.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18  Authors: holly ellyatt
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, deal, uk, minister, president, mean, financial, uks, trump, eu, trade, economy, brexit


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Your first trade for Thursday, July 18

Trump was suspected of talking to Cohen, Hicks about plan to stop… The filing came a day after the judge in Michael Cohen’s criminal case ordered their release, saying that the end of a probe into those payments to alleged sexual partners of… Politicsread more


Trump was suspected of talking to Cohen, Hicks about plan to stop… The filing came a day after the judge in Michael Cohen’s criminal case ordered their release, saying that the end of a probe into those payments to alleged sexual partners of… Politicsread more
Your first trade for Thursday, July 18 Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18  Authors: tyler bailey
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, talking, 18, probe, stopthe, sexual, trump, plan, suspected, release, saying, trade, payments


Your first trade for Thursday, July 18

Trump was suspected of talking to Cohen, Hicks about plan to stop…

The filing came a day after the judge in Michael Cohen’s criminal case ordered their release, saying that the end of a probe into those payments to alleged sexual partners of…

Politics

read more


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18  Authors: tyler bailey
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, talking, 18, probe, stopthe, sexual, trump, plan, suspected, release, saying, trade, payments


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US stock futures were little changed as earnings and trade fears weigh

U.S. stock index futures were nearly flat Thursday morning as earnings season gathers momentum. ET, Dow futures indicated an implied positive open of less than 5 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also pointed to lower opens. As earnings season kicks into full gear, Railroad giant CSX posted weaker-than-forecast quarterly results on Wednesday, sending its stock plummeting, while Bank of America reported better-than-expected earnings but warned that lower rates would hit its net interest income


U.S. stock index futures were nearly flat Thursday morning as earnings season gathers momentum. ET, Dow futures indicated an implied positive open of less than 5 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also pointed to lower opens. As earnings season kicks into full gear, Railroad giant CSX posted weaker-than-forecast quarterly results on Wednesday, sending its stock plummeting, while Bank of America reported better-than-expected earnings but warned that lower rates would hit its net interest income
US stock futures were little changed as earnings and trade fears weigh Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18  Authors: elliot smith
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, fears, earnings, sp, lower, season, trade, reported, giant, stock, futures, changed, little, weigh, bank


US stock futures were little changed as earnings and trade fears weigh

U.S. stock index futures were nearly flat Thursday morning as earnings season gathers momentum.

Around 7 a.m. ET, Dow futures indicated an implied positive open of less than 5 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also pointed to lower opens.

Stocks closed at the day’s lows Wednesday after The Wall Street Journal reported that trade negotiations between the U.S. and China had faltered over restrictions on Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei, citing sources familiar with the talks.

This came after President Donald Trump on Tuesday made skeptical comments about the possibility of an imminent resolution to the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

As earnings season kicks into full gear, Railroad giant CSX posted weaker-than-forecast quarterly results on Wednesday, sending its stock plummeting, while Bank of America reported better-than-expected earnings but warned that lower rates would hit its net interest income growth.

Both United Airlines and Cintas also beat expectations, indicating that the bleak outlook offered at the beginning of earnings season might have been overly pessimistic. However, only around 7% of S&P 500 companies have reported second-quarter earnings thus far, according to FactSet data.

Another flurry of earnings is due Thursday, with Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth, Union Pacific, SunTrust, and M&T Bank reporting before the bell, while Microsoft is set to report after the bell.

—CNBC’s Fred Imbert contributed to this report.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18  Authors: elliot smith
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, fears, earnings, sp, lower, season, trade, reported, giant, stock, futures, changed, little, weigh, bank


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Gold retreats from 2-week peak as investors lock in profits

Gold prices pulled back from a two-week high to trade lower on Thursday, as some investors took advantage of the last session’s gain to book profits. Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,420.60 per ounce, as of 0736 GMT, after hitting its highest since July 3 at $1,428.40. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% lower to $1,421.60 an ounce. Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.1% at $15.99 per ounce, after hitting its highest since Feb. 20 at $16.12. Platinum rose 0.6% to $848.11 an ounce and palladium ga


Gold prices pulled back from a two-week high to trade lower on Thursday, as some investors took advantage of the last session’s gain to book profits. Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,420.60 per ounce, as of 0736 GMT, after hitting its highest since July 3 at $1,428.40. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% lower to $1,421.60 an ounce. Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.1% at $15.99 per ounce, after hitting its highest since Feb. 20 at $16.12. Platinum rose 0.6% to $848.11 an ounce and palladium ga
Gold retreats from 2-week peak as investors lock in profits Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 01, profits, investors, ounce, lock, 2week, session, dollar, gold, trade, retreats, market, peak, rose, lower


Gold retreats from 2-week peak as investors lock in profits

Gold prices pulled back from a two-week high to trade lower on Thursday, as some investors took advantage of the last session’s gain to book profits.

Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,420.60 per ounce, as of 0736 GMT, after hitting its highest since July 3 at $1,428.40. It rose nearly 1.5% in the previous session as the dollar slipped after weaker-than-expected U.S. housing data increased prospects for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% lower to $1,421.60 an ounce.

“A slightly weaker dollar and a clear preference from investors over the last 24 hours drove safe-haven assets higher,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist, CMC Markets.

“From gold’s point of view, it approached a key resistance level around $1,430, and having failed to push through it, it looks like short-term trading investors are taking advantage of gains.”

The dollar index was down 0.2% against a basket of major currencies on Thursday. It climbed to a one-week peak in the previous session on robust U.S. retail sales, but nudged lower as Treasury yields fell in the wake of weak U.S. housing market data and concerns about the unresolved U.S.-China trade conflict.

Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting at the end of the month, with some in the market even betting on a 50 basis point cut.

The Fed reported on Wednesday that the U.S. economy continued growing at a “modest” rate in recent weeks, with consumers continuing to spend and a “generally positive” outlook overall even in the face of disruptions caused by the U.S. trade policy.

Earlier in the week, U.S. President Donald Trump kept up the pressure on Beijing with a threat to put tariffs on another $325 billion of Chinese goods.

“Bullion is likely to see strong support after the Fed’s Beige Book emphasised policymakers’ concern on negative impact of trade uncertainty,” Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note.

Indicative of sentiment, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.48% to 803.18 tonnes on Wednesday from 799.37 tonnes on Tuesday.

Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.1% at $15.99 per ounce, after hitting its highest since Feb. 20 at $16.12. The metal was on track for a fifth consecutive session of gains.

Platinum rose 0.6% to $848.11 an ounce and palladium gained 0.1% to $1,538.95.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-07-18
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 01, profits, investors, ounce, lock, 2week, session, dollar, gold, trade, retreats, market, peak, rose, lower


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