US trade war with China won’t be ending anytime soon: CNBC CFO survey

Last week the White House curtailed Navarro’s role in shaping U.S. trade policy after Navarro engaged in a public clash with top economic advisor Larry Kudlow, who favors deescalating tensions with China. Forty percent of North American CFOs say they approve of how Kudlow is handling the economy, and just under 27 percent disapprove. About a quarter of North America CFOs seem to think Congress should serve as a check on the Trump administration’s worrisome trade policy, but they do not think tra


Last week the White House curtailed Navarro’s role in shaping U.S. trade policy after Navarro engaged in a public clash with top economic advisor Larry Kudlow, who favors deescalating tensions with China. Forty percent of North American CFOs say they approve of how Kudlow is handling the economy, and just under 27 percent disapprove. About a quarter of North America CFOs seem to think Congress should serve as a check on the Trump administration’s worrisome trade policy, but they do not think tra
US trade war with China won’t be ending anytime soon: CNBC CFO survey Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: david spiegel, afp, getty images, shironosov, michael nagle, bloomberg, drew angerer
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, war, wont, house, white, members, china, anytime, ending, survey, soon, cfo, cfos, trump, think, tariffs, trade, north


US trade war with China won't be ending anytime soon: CNBC CFO survey

White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro is at the bottom of the list, with 60 percent of North American CFOs disapproving of his handling of the economy, followed by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and President Donald Trump (53.3 percent).

Navarro has been an aggressive proponent of continued punitive tariffs for China and has been seen as the person fuelling Trump’s personal obsession with reducing trade deficits. Last week the White House curtailed Navarro’s role in shaping U.S. trade policy after Navarro engaged in a public clash with top economic advisor Larry Kudlow, who favors deescalating tensions with China. However, the White House also said it is making no changes to its current tariffs on Chinese goods and still may go ahead with steeper duties on the largest portion ($200 billion) of the affected goods in January. Forty percent of North American CFOs say they approve of how Kudlow is handling the economy, and just under 27 percent disapprove.

About a quarter of North America CFOs seem to think Congress should serve as a check on the Trump administration’s worrisome trade policy, but they do not think trade should be the No. 1 priority for Congress in 2019, with just under 27 percent citing it as the top congressional issue. “Infrastructure” legislation has more support among CFOs.

(Note: The CNBC Global CFO Council Survey for the fourth quarter was conducted from Nov. 13–19, 2018. Thirty-seven of the 121 global members responded to the survey , including 15 North America members, 13 EMEA members and 9 APAC members.)

Complete survey results are below.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: david spiegel, afp, getty images, shironosov, michael nagle, bloomberg, drew angerer
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Dollar bulls wary after cautious Fed comments, weak homebuilder report

The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, traded marginally lower at 96.17 on Tuesday. “William’s comments are justified but are not as dovish as the comments made by Clarida and Kaplan last week. Attrill added that safe-haven buying can return to the dollar if global equities keep correcting and their volatility continues to rise. “If we see the VIX (volatility index) at 25, I would expect the dollar to pick up steam.” The pound is seen likely to trade sideways until the ma


The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, traded marginally lower at 96.17 on Tuesday. “William’s comments are justified but are not as dovish as the comments made by Clarida and Kaplan last week. Attrill added that safe-haven buying can return to the dollar if global equities keep correcting and their volatility continues to rise. “If we see the VIX (volatility index) at 25, I would expect the dollar to pick up steam.” The pound is seen likely to trade sideways until the ma
Dollar bulls wary after cautious Fed comments, weak homebuilder report Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: matt cardy, getty images
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Dollar bulls wary after cautious Fed comments, weak homebuilder report

The dollar hovered near a two-week low against its peers on Tuesday as cautious comments by Federal Reserve officials over the global outlook and weak data at home raised questions over whether the U.S. central bank will slow down its rate increases.

Overnight, New York Fed President John Williams told a Q&A event that “We will be likely raising interest rates somewhat, but it is really in the context of a very strong economy.”

Williams noted that the Fed is not on a pre-set course and will adjust monetary policy to keep the economy strong with low inflation.

Last week, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan raised concerns over a potential global slowdown that has seen markets betting heavily that the rate-hike cycle is on its last legs, even as the senior Fed officials signaled more interest rate increases.

The Fed executives’ remarks led some traders to question whether the dollar’s rally was nearing its end, with the benchmark U.S. 10 year treasury yields pulling back slightly.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, traded marginally lower at 96.17 on Tuesday. The index fell nearly half a percent last week, its biggest weekly drop since late September.

However, some analysts believe the dollar can stage a comeback.

“William’s comments are justified but are not as dovish as the comments made by Clarida and Kaplan last week. The market may rethink whether it read Friday’s comments as overly dovish which may lead to a reversal in dollar weakness,” said Ray Attrill, head of currency strategy at NAB.

Attrill added that safe-haven buying can return to the dollar if global equities keep correcting and their volatility continues to rise.

“If we see the VIX (volatility index) at 25, I would expect the dollar to pick up steam.” The index is currently at 20.10.

Economists polled by Reuters still expect the Fed will raise interest rates again next month and three times next year, but a strong majority say the risk is it will slow that pace down.

The greenback was also weighed by surprisingly weak housing data, which pushed down U.S. 10 year bond yields.

U.S. homebuilders’ sentiment recorded its steepest one-month drop in over 4-1/2 years, suggesting that rising borrowing costs are squeezing the real estate sector.

Goldman Sachs strategists said in an outlook for 2019 that the greenback may decline as much as 6 percent against major peers with the U.S. economy slowing as the boost from tax cuts and easy credit fades through the year.

The Japanese yen traded flat to quote at 112.55. It had hit 112.38 earlier in the trading session, its highest level in November. But analysts think that further strength in the yen is unlikely.

“We are not seeing Japanese investors retreat from the U.S. and foreign markets…flow numbers show that Japan remains close to fully invested abroad,” said Attrill.

“This gives support to dollar/yen.”

The yen has strengthened over the last two sessions as traders rushed to the currency in the uncertainty around U.S.-China trade talks, Brexit worries, and the Italian budget standoff.

Nonetheless, the euro was well bid in early Asian trade at $1.1456. The single currency has gained two percent versus the dollar over the last five trading sessions despite the ongoing standoff between the European Union and Italy over its free-spending budget, which breaks EU fiscal norms.

Analysts have been concerned about an economic slowdown in the euro area and will be keeping a close eye on the French and German manufacturing performance data later this week.

“Recent evidence suggests that the Eurozone economy is slowing and there’s a very good chance the PMIs will confirm that. However, the single currency could easily hit 1.1500 before the data is released,” said Kathy Lien, managing director of currency strategy at BK Asset Management in a note.

Meanwhile, sterling gained 0.1 percent to trade at $1.2860.

The pound is seen likely to trade sideways until the market gets more clarity on progress in the Brexit deal.

The Australian dollar traded marginally lower at $0.7289. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November policy meeting on Tuesday showed policy makers expect above-trend growth this year and next, helped by interest rates at a record low 1.50 percent.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: matt cardy, getty images
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The Dow may drop another 2,000 points before the stock market selling is done: CNBC CFO survey

Thirty-five percent of CFOs surveyed in Q4 cited trade as their biggest current concern, making it the top issue in the fourth quarters. 1 concern of CFOs in Q3, and fell off by a considerable percentage as CFO concerns about trade hit their highest quarterly mark in 2018. The percentage of CFOs citing central bank policy as their biggest concern increased slightly, from 10 percent to 13.5 percent, but near-60 percent of CFOs expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates again in December. (Note: Th


Thirty-five percent of CFOs surveyed in Q4 cited trade as their biggest current concern, making it the top issue in the fourth quarters. 1 concern of CFOs in Q3, and fell off by a considerable percentage as CFO concerns about trade hit their highest quarterly mark in 2018. The percentage of CFOs citing central bank policy as their biggest concern increased slightly, from 10 percent to 13.5 percent, but near-60 percent of CFOs expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates again in December. (Note: Th
The Dow may drop another 2,000 points before the stock market selling is done: CNBC CFO survey Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: eric rosenbaum, spencer platt, getty images news, getty images, shironosov, afp, michael nagle, bloomberg, drew angerer
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, president, 2000, points, drop, selling, white, members, dow, biggest, market, survey, cfo, cfos, global, concern, weighing, trade, stock


The Dow may drop another 2,000 points before the stock market selling is done: CNBC CFO survey

Concerns about a slowing economy — Goldman Sachs said on Monday in a report that U.S. economic growth could be cut in half by the end of next year as the tax cuts wear off and rates rise — and worries about another round of tariffs against China set for January in the ongoing trade war are weighing on the corporate outlook.

Thirty-five percent of CFOs surveyed in Q4 cited trade as their biggest current concern, making it the top issue in the fourth quarters.

CFOs were also asked their opinion of major political figures in Washington, and President Trump’s hardline trade advisors, Peter Navarro and Robert Lighthizer, had by far the lowest approval ratings among CFOs, at 26.7 percent. Last week, as stocks suffered another steep selloff, the White House was sending mixed messages on trade, with President Donald Trump’s top economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, disavowing comments from White House trade advisor Peter Navarro, who last week lashed out at Wall Street influence in U.S.-China trade negotiations in comments that helped weaken the stock market.

The stock decline on Monday came after a Sunday speech by Vice President Mike Pence saying there would be no end to U.S. charges on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods unless Beijing changed its ways.

Consumer demand was the second biggest risk cited by CFOs, at 24 percent. But it had been the No. 1 concern of CFOs in Q3, and fell off by a considerable percentage as CFO concerns about trade hit their highest quarterly mark in 2018. The percentage of CFOs citing central bank policy as their biggest concern increased slightly, from 10 percent to 13.5 percent, but near-60 percent of CFOs expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates again in December.

While the market volatility is clearly weighing on CFOs, and the political headlines continue to increase uncertainty, CFOs were still mostly positive on the global macroeconomic conditions in Q4, with every region around the globe being rated as “stable.” The United States, in particular, was the only region described as “improving,” which is a tag the U.S. has received from CFOs taking the survey for eight quarters in a row.

(Note: The CNBC Global CFO Council Survey for the fourth quarter was conducted from Nov. 13–19, 2018. Thirty-seven of the 121 global members responded to the survey, including 15 North America members, 13 EMEA members and 9 APAC members.)

Watch: When the Dow closed about 1,000 for the first time in 1972


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: eric rosenbaum, spencer platt, getty images news, getty images, shironosov, afp, michael nagle, bloomberg, drew angerer
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US companies aren’t in a hurry to leave China despite the trade war, analysts say

U.S. companies aren’t leaving China in a big way yet, despite escalating trade tensions between the two economic powerhouses, analysts said. “(I) haven’t seen any significant U.S. companies leaving China,” Rogers said in a phone interview Friday. Many hope the G-20 meeting will diffuse trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, which this summer began to apply additional tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of each other’s imports. The tariffs may encourage U.S. companies to step


U.S. companies aren’t leaving China in a big way yet, despite escalating trade tensions between the two economic powerhouses, analysts said. “(I) haven’t seen any significant U.S. companies leaving China,” Rogers said in a phone interview Friday. Many hope the G-20 meeting will diffuse trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, which this summer began to apply additional tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of each other’s imports. The tariffs may encourage U.S. companies to step
US companies aren’t in a hurry to leave China despite the trade war, analysts say Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: evelyn cheng, -chris rogers, research analyst at panjiva, -nick marro, the economist intelligence unit
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, changes, companies, china, arent, hurry, war, analysts, tensions, summit, despite, trade, say, president, rogers, meeting, tariffs, leave


US companies aren't in a hurry to leave China despite the trade war, analysts say

U.S. companies aren’t leaving China in a big way yet, despite escalating trade tensions between the two economic powerhouses, analysts said.

“A lot of companies are talking about making changes, but (are) not actively making changes,” said Chris Rogers, research analyst at Panjiva, a supply chain data company that’s part of S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“Nobody’s going to make any changes until they see how this summit goes between President Trump and President Xi,” he said referring to their upcoming meeting at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1.

“(I) haven’t seen any significant U.S. companies leaving China,” Rogers said in a phone interview Friday.

Many hope the G-20 meeting will diffuse trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, which this summer began to apply additional tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of each other’s imports.

The tariffs may encourage U.S. companies to step up a trend of increasing manufacturing operations outside China, analysts said. As labor costs in China rise, many companies — including some Chinese firms — are looking toward Southeast Asian countries as new manufacturing centers.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: evelyn cheng, -chris rogers, research analyst at panjiva, -nick marro, the economist intelligence unit
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, changes, companies, china, arent, hurry, war, analysts, tensions, summit, despite, trade, say, president, rogers, meeting, tariffs, leave


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As US recession chances increase, the Fed may deliver fewer rate hikes: Reuters poll

GDP growth is then forecast to slow to 2.0-2.5 percent throughout 2019 and then down to 1.8 percent by mid-2020, about half the latest reported rate. Economists in the latest poll unanimously said the Fed will raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.25-2.50 percent in December. But the third rate rise is a close call, with just over half, 54 of 102 economists forecasting that outcome. Part of the reason for the lack of conviction for more rate rises stems from still-tame inflation p


GDP growth is then forecast to slow to 2.0-2.5 percent throughout 2019 and then down to 1.8 percent by mid-2020, about half the latest reported rate. Economists in the latest poll unanimously said the Fed will raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.25-2.50 percent in December. But the third rate rise is a close call, with just over half, 54 of 102 economists forecasting that outcome. Part of the reason for the lack of conviction for more rate rises stems from still-tame inflation p
As US recession chances increase, the Fed may deliver fewer rate hikes: Reuters poll Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: david a grogan
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As US recession chances increase, the Fed may deliver fewer rate hikes: Reuters poll

The Federal Reserve is still expected to raise interest rates again next month and three times next year, but a strong majority of economists polled by Reuters over the past week say the risk is it will slow that pace down.

The probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years, while still low, also nudged up to a median 35 percent from 30 percent in the latest monthly Reuters survey of economists taken Nov 13-19. It held at 15 percent for the next 12 months.

While many developed economies are already slowing, growth in the world’s largest economy is still solid, riding the tail-end of a $1.5 trillion tax cut boost, and official unemployment is the lowest in nearly half a century.

But that shine is forecast to start coming off this quarter, with growth slowing more by the end of next year as a trade stand-off with China shows no signs of letting up.

“The economy is facing a growing number of headwinds, including the lagged effects of previous interest rate rises and dollar strength, the uncertainty of trade protectionism at a time when external demand is slowing, and a sense that the support from the fiscal stimulus will gradually fade,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

“The main risk to the upside likely stems from the tight jobs market and whether wages can continue rising, but … we look for economic growth to slow through 2019 and this should see inflation pressures gradually recede late next year.”

Gross domestic product (GDP) will expand at an annualized rate of 2.7 percent this quarter, down from 4.2 percent in the second quarter and 3.5 percent in the third.

GDP growth is then forecast to slow to 2.0-2.5 percent throughout 2019 and then down to 1.8 percent by mid-2020, about half the latest reported rate.

The trade war U.S. President Donald Trump launched with No. 2 world economy China has already started to hit export-sensitive economies like Germany and Japan. And an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit ended on Sunday with leaders failing to agree on a final statement for first time in the forum’s history.

That has lowered expectations Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will make a breakthrough when they meet at a G20 summit later this month.

The recent sell-off on Wall Street had some expecting the Fed to soften its tone on policy tightening at its November meeting, but the central bank did no such thing.

Economists in the latest poll unanimously said the Fed will raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.25-2.50 percent in December.

Median forecasts show three more increases next year, taking the federal funds rate to 3.00-3.25 percent by end-2019. But the third rate rise is a close call, with just over half, 54 of 102 economists forecasting that outcome.

Traders of U.S. short-term interest-rate futures expect only two hikes in 2019.

The range of forecasts around how much the Fed will raise rates next year was wide. While one contributor expected no change to rates at all in 2019 after a December rise, another predicted a 50 basis point hike at the June meeting.

Part of the reason for the lack of conviction for more rate rises stems from still-tame inflation pressure. Wage inflation has picked up recently, but overall, economists have not made any major upgrades to their inflation forecasts.

Similarly, there is not a lot of conviction over exactly when the next economic slump will arrive.

Twelve respondents in the latest poll said there was a greater than 50 percent chance of a recession in the next two years. But only one, Fathom Consulting, has actually put down a point forecast for GDP to contract in the full year 2020.

Just over half of 65 economists who replied to another question said there was no impact on their growth outlook from the November midterm elections, in which the Democratic Party made major gains and took control of the House of Representatives but left the Republican party in control of the Senate.

Twenty-seven said this new Congressional setup, which will make it more difficult for the White House to pass the kind of sweeping tax cuts as those signed into law late last year, was negative. Five said it was positive.

WATCH:How the Fed could cause the next recession, according to Gary Shilling


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: david a grogan
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A second ‘FAANG’ stock just went red for the year as popular tech trade dies

While Facebook turned negative a few months ago, Alphabet became the second major tech company to go negative. Tech stocks overall were hit hard Tuesday as the Nasdaq Composite Index slid another 1.2 percent. Facebook and Alphabet are just two of the companies that make up the group of large tech stocks commonly known as FAANG. Still, the three other FAANG stocks hung onto their gains for the year. Clarification: This story was revised to clarify the timing of the decline of more than $1 trillio


While Facebook turned negative a few months ago, Alphabet became the second major tech company to go negative. Tech stocks overall were hit hard Tuesday as the Nasdaq Composite Index slid another 1.2 percent. Facebook and Alphabet are just two of the companies that make up the group of large tech stocks commonly known as FAANG. Still, the three other FAANG stocks hung onto their gains for the year. Clarification: This story was revised to clarify the timing of the decline of more than $1 trillio
A second ‘FAANG’ stock just went red for the year as popular tech trade dies Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: lauren feiner, anindito mukheriee, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, faang, stocks, trade, apple, popular, tech, trillion, stock, second, went, dies, alphabet, google, company, netflix, red, facebook


A second 'FAANG' stock just went red for the year as popular tech trade dies

Facebook and Google parent company Alphabet stocks are now down for the year. While Facebook turned negative a few months ago, Alphabet became the second major tech company to go negative.

Tech stocks overall were hit hard Tuesday as the Nasdaq Composite Index slid another 1.2 percent. Facebook and Alphabet are just two of the companies that make up the group of large tech stocks commonly known as FAANG. The others are Amazon, Apple and Netflix. As of Tuesday, the FAANG stocks have lost more than $1 trillion from their recent highs.

Still, the three other FAANG stocks hung onto their gains for the year. As of Tuesday, Amazon was up 30 percent year to date, Apple was up 5.7 percent and Netflix was up nearly 42 percent.

Facebook was down more than 25 percent this year and Alphabet was down more than 2 percent as of Tuesday. The year has been tumultuous for Facebook, which has faced a series of scandals involving misinformation on its platform and questions over data privacy. Google employees walked out of offices around the world earlier this month after The New York Times reported that the company had paid out a $90 million exit package to a former executive who was accused of sexual misconduct.

Clarification: This story was revised to clarify the timing of the decline of more than $1 trillion in market value for FAANG stocks.

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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: lauren feiner, anindito mukheriee, bloomberg, getty images
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Barclays: Stocks will go nowhere next year as tax cut boost will fade

Gains in the U.S. stock market will be hard to find in 2019 as one-time boosts like tax cuts and government spending will fade and the U.S.-China trade conflict continues, according to Barclays. He also noted that heightened U.S.-China trade tensions actually boosted trade this year as businesses front-loaded some of their orders before tariffs kick in. Companies got a big boost after President Donald Trump signed a bill late last year that cut the federal corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 3


Gains in the U.S. stock market will be hard to find in 2019 as one-time boosts like tax cuts and government spending will fade and the U.S.-China trade conflict continues, according to Barclays. He also noted that heightened U.S.-China trade tensions actually boosted trade this year as businesses front-loaded some of their orders before tariffs kick in. Companies got a big boost after President Donald Trump signed a bill late last year that cut the federal corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 3
Barclays: Stocks will go nowhere next year as tax cut boost will fade Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: fred imbert, michael nagle, bloomberg, getty images
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Barclays: Stocks will go nowhere next year as tax cut boost will fade

Gains in the U.S. stock market will be hard to find in 2019 as one-time boosts like tax cuts and government spending will fade and the U.S.-China trade conflict continues, according to Barclays.

Maneesh Deshpande, head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays, said in a note Monday that he expects the S&P 500 to end next year at 3,000, which is the same as his year-end target for 2018. The S&P 500 closed at 2,690.73 on Monday.

“We expect moderate 2019 EPS growth of 7% after a remarkable 2018 run (~25% y⁄y) as several one-off drivers fade,” Deshpande said, referring to lower corporate and personal taxes, as well as a bipartisan bill that increased government spending. He also noted that heightened U.S.-China trade tensions actually boosted trade this year as businesses front-loaded some of their orders before tariffs kick in.

“A common thread which runs through these diverse set of drivers is that their impact on growth rates is likely to be one-off,” Deshpande said. “Hence … both earnings and economic growth are likely to normalize during 2019.”

S&P 500 earnings have been on fire this year, rising at least 25 percent in the first three quarters of the year. Companies got a big boost after President Donald Trump signed a bill late last year that cut the federal corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent. Back in February, Trump also signed a bill that extended government spending for two years and increased budget caps by about $300 billion.

But as these one-time catalysts lose steam, Deshpande said the U.S.-China trade skirmish could take “a bigger bite out of earnings growth” next year.

“Our base case is that trade tensions are unlikely to abate,” Deshpande said. “The administration is likely to focus even more heavily on trade policy since it falls under the purview of executive action as the legislative channel is now closed after the results of the mid-term elections.”

China and the U.S. have exchanged tariffs on billions of dollars worth of each other’s goods this year as the Trump administration adopts a more protectionist stance on trade. These levies have raised concern this year that tighter trade conditions could hinder global economic growth as well as corporate profits.

“In our opinion, the impact of these tariffs is not currently factored into the consensus forecasts and will only be reflected once companies give explicit guidance,” Deshpande noted.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-20  Authors: fred imbert, michael nagle, bloomberg, getty images
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Trade war: What happens when Trump meets Xi Jinping at Argentina G-20

Trade war is the number one risk to global outlook, S&P says 10:47 PM ET Sun, 18 Nov 2018 | 03:06Investors and world leaders alike will be glued to the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Argentina, hoping for clues to what’s next. “One gets the sense that he’s (Trump) going to be a bit tougher with China” compared with Mexico and Canada, said Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. The G-20 meeting of the world’s developed econ


Trade war is the number one risk to global outlook, S&P says 10:47 PM ET Sun, 18 Nov 2018 | 03:06Investors and world leaders alike will be glued to the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Argentina, hoping for clues to what’s next. “One gets the sense that he’s (Trump) going to be a bit tougher with China” compared with Mexico and Canada, said Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. The G-20 meeting of the world’s developed econ
Trade war: What happens when Trump meets Xi Jinping at Argentina G-20 Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-19  Authors: yen nee lee, -hannah anderson, global market strategist, jp morgan asset management
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Trade war: What happens when Trump meets Xi Jinping at Argentina G-20

Trade war is the number one risk to global outlook, S&P says 10:47 PM ET Sun, 18 Nov 2018 | 03:06

Investors and world leaders alike will be glued to the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Argentina, hoping for clues to what’s next.

“One gets the sense that he’s (Trump) going to be a bit tougher with China” compared with Mexico and Canada, said Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. The G-20 meeting of the world’s developed economies takes place in Buenos Aires from Nov. 30 to Dec. 1.

Trump criticized Mexico and Canada for months, claiming they took advantage of U.S. companies through trade, but the three countries reached a new trilateral deal at the end of September to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The approach to China has been different. Trump has repeatedly attacked the country for stealing intellectual property, creating barriers to American companies that try to operate in China, and for the massive trade imbalance between the two countries.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-19  Authors: yen nee lee, -hannah anderson, global market strategist, jp morgan asset management
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The odds that the US and China don’t reach a trade deal just got higher: Cramer

“It’s hard not to get the impression that this administration cares more about trying to destabilize or even topple the Chinese Communist regime than it does about negotiating a fairer trade deal,” Cramer said on “Mad Money.” In the October speech, Trump’s second-in-command stopped short of declaring what Cramer called “economic war” on China. Those arguments could stymie any progress at the upcoming G-20 summit, at which President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss U.S


“It’s hard not to get the impression that this administration cares more about trying to destabilize or even topple the Chinese Communist regime than it does about negotiating a fairer trade deal,” Cramer said on “Mad Money.” In the October speech, Trump’s second-in-command stopped short of declaring what Cramer called “economic war” on China. Those arguments could stymie any progress at the upcoming G-20 summit, at which President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss U.S
The odds that the US and China don’t reach a trade deal just got higher: Cramer Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-19  Authors: elizabeth gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, china, president, warned, g20, odds, deal, chinese, weekend, trade, higher, dont, cramer, speech, trump, reach


The odds that the US and China don't reach a trade deal just got higher: Cramer

The Trump administration’s mixed messaging on trade with China could result in increased tensions between the United States and the People’s Republic, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday as the major averages endured a technology-led sell-off.

After hearing the hard-line stance embraced by Vice President Mike Pence in his Oct. 4 speech at Washington’s Hudson Institute, Cramer worried that what seems like dealmaking could actually be a long-winded strategy to destabilize China’s socioeconomic position.

“It’s hard not to get the impression that this administration cares more about trying to destabilize or even topple the Chinese Communist regime than it does about negotiating a fairer trade deal,” Cramer said on “Mad Money.”

In the October speech, Trump’s second-in-command stopped short of declaring what Cramer called “economic war” on China. Pence furthered that stance at his speech at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit on Saturday by calling on nations to reconsider backing China’s massive Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.

Those arguments could stymie any progress at the upcoming G-20 summit, at which President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss U.S.-China trade and the potential for a renewed trade deal, Cramer said.

“You can hope that the G-20 yields results, but I would say that Pence’s reiteration of the hard-line containment policy makes that event much more binary,” Cramer warned. “The odds increased dramatically this weekend that there’s no deal to be had.”

And while investors “could easily make the case that it’s all rhetoric” focused on getting better deal terms, the “Mad Money” host was prepared for the worst.

“All of this talk of containment sure sounds sincere to me,” he warned, saying that Pence’s hawkish take this weekend was “just a further extension of the cold war that began Oct. 4 and seems to get hotter every single day.”

The G-20 meeting of the world’s developed economies will take place from Nov. 30 to Dec. 1 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. In September, President Donald Trump announced that he would place duties of 10 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. They are set to rise to 25 percent at the end of 2018.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-19  Authors: elizabeth gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, china, president, warned, g20, odds, deal, chinese, weekend, trade, higher, dont, cramer, speech, trump, reach


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Brexit reaches ‘decisive moment’ as the EU turns its attention to the future relationship

In Brussels, Brexit talks have shifted toward one clear direction: the future relationship. The so-called political declaration is due to be published Tuesday and then reviewed by the different EU capitals before Thursday. The 27 European leaders and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May are then due to sign off this political deal on Sunday, when they meet in Brussels. The transition period refers to the time after March 29, when the U.K. leaves the EU, and is set to last at least until 2020. During


In Brussels, Brexit talks have shifted toward one clear direction: the future relationship. The so-called political declaration is due to be published Tuesday and then reviewed by the different EU capitals before Thursday. The 27 European leaders and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May are then due to sign off this political deal on Sunday, when they meet in Brussels. The transition period refers to the time after March 29, when the U.K. leaves the EU, and is set to last at least until 2020. During
Brexit reaches ‘decisive moment’ as the EU turns its attention to the future relationship Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-19  Authors: silvia amaro
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, transition, decisive, attention, brussels, uk, moment, trade, relationship, political, talks, turns, brexit, reaches, future, process, eu


Brexit reaches 'decisive moment' as the EU turns its attention to the future relationship

In Brussels, Brexit talks have shifted toward one clear direction: the future relationship.

Ministers for European affairs met on Monday morning to discuss the political text that will serve as a guideline to the talks that will begin after the U.K. leaves the EU in March — these negotiations will be mainly targeted at securing new trade arrangements between both sides.

The so-called political declaration is due to be published Tuesday and then reviewed by the different EU capitals before Thursday. The 27 European leaders and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May are then due to sign off this political deal on Sunday, when they meet in Brussels.

“We are at a decisive moment in this process, no one should lose sight of the progress that’s been achieved in Brussels and in London,” Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, told reporters in Brussels on Monday.

“This is now our focus: the (political) declaration will open the door to a negotiation on an ambitious economic and strategic partnership in the future, once the U.K. has left,” Barnier said, making it clear that the transition period — which is currently causing a political storm in Westminster — is not the same as the future relationship.

The transition period refers to the time after March 29, when the U.K. leaves the EU, and is set to last at least until 2020. During that time, the U.K. and the EU will negotiate the second phase of the Brexit process, which includes their future trade links.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-11-19  Authors: silvia amaro
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, transition, decisive, attention, brussels, uk, moment, trade, relationship, political, talks, turns, brexit, reaches, future, process, eu


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