Here are Credit Suisse’s 10 ‘surprises’ for 2020, including a big market prediction

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York. The market started 2020 on a strong note as easing geopolitical tensions lifted stocks to all-time highs, and according to one strategist, this year’s rally is just getting started. In Credit Suisse’s annual list of “10 surprises,” global equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite said the S&P could rise another 25%. Other predictions include oil finishing the year as one of the three best-performing sectors, as well as Chin


A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York.
The market started 2020 on a strong note as easing geopolitical tensions lifted stocks to all-time highs, and according to one strategist, this year’s rally is just getting started.
In Credit Suisse’s annual list of “10 surprises,” global equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite said the S&P could rise another 25%.
Other predictions include oil finishing the year as one of the three best-performing sectors, as well as Chin
Here are Credit Suisse’s 10 ‘surprises’ for 2020, including a big market prediction Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-17  Authors: pippa stevens
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, including, trader, prediction, threedecade, big, list, credit, surprises, 2020, suisses, yorkthe, technology, underperforminga, works, york, strategist, tensions, market


Here are Credit Suisse's 10 'surprises' for 2020, including a big market prediction

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York.

The market started 2020 on a strong note as easing geopolitical tensions lifted stocks to all-time highs, and according to one strategist, this year’s rally is just getting started.

In Credit Suisse’s annual list of “10 surprises,” global equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite said the S&P could rise another 25%. Other predictions include oil finishing the year as one of the three best-performing sectors, as well as China’s GDP growth rate hitting a three-decade low and the technology sector underperforming.

A “surprise” on the list, which has been published for nearly 30 years and includes five positive and five negative outcomes, is defined as an event outside the firm’s core scenario, but one where the distribution skews.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-17  Authors: pippa stevens
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, including, trader, prediction, threedecade, big, list, credit, surprises, 2020, suisses, yorkthe, technology, underperforminga, works, york, strategist, tensions, market


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Facebook stock is about to ride a big upside move, trader predicts

Hold on tight because one top stock could be preparing to take off into earnings. It then took more than a year for the stock to recoup losses as worries over privacy and threat of regulation kept investors away. After a strong third quarter, Gordon anticipates continued growth from Facebook when it reports its fourth-quarter results later this month. A move to $235 implies 6% upside and would mark a new high. That’s a $10 spread that’s going to cost you about $3.11 so the difference would be yo


Hold on tight because one top stock could be preparing to take off into earnings.
It then took more than a year for the stock to recoup losses as worries over privacy and threat of regulation kept investors away.
After a strong third quarter, Gordon anticipates continued growth from Facebook when it reports its fourth-quarter results later this month.
A move to $235 implies 6% upside and would mark a new high.
That’s a $10 spread that’s going to cost you about $3.11 so the difference would be yo
Facebook stock is about to ride a big upside move, trader predicts Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, facebook, gordon, thats, saw, strong, spread, ride, stock, big, high, earnings, predicts, trader, 235, upside


Facebook stock is about to ride a big upside move, trader predicts

Hold on tight because one top stock could be preparing to take off into earnings.

Facebook shares, which are less than 1% from matching their record high, might traverse even more peaks when the company reports Jan. 29 on its recent quarter, TradingAnalysis.com founder Todd Gordon said.

“Facebook [has made] a new all-time high … despite all the negative headlines that we saw last year – very, very strong move up and I can tell you guys from a very simplistic logical point of view, new highs in Facebook and the stock market are not a bearish thing. Let’s stop overthinking this here,” Gordon said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

The social network broke out to new highs earlier this month for the first time since 2018. From its July 2018 peak to a bottom later that year, the shares had fallen 43%. It then took more than a year for the stock to recoup losses as worries over privacy and threat of regulation kept investors away.

“We saw a lot of bad headlines in 2019 — rightfully so. We saw an FTC probe for antitrust which has been sort of dismissed, for now. We saw obviously Facebook leveraging the user data to target political ads — that’s a bit of a problem as well — but investors shrugged that news aside to continue to push Facebook up,” said Gordon.

After a strong third quarter, Gordon anticipates continued growth from Facebook when it reports its fourth-quarter results later this month. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect earnings to rise 6% compared with a year earlier.

“The options market is looking for about a $14 move into earnings. The trade I have set up for you right here are the options that are expiring Jan. 31 so just a couple days after the earnings are to be reported. The expected move puts us up around $235 from current price of just [around] $221,” he said.

A move to $235 implies 6% upside and would mark a new high. Gordon has a way to profit if that move comes to pass.

“If you are just comfortable with doing debit spreads, you could buy something like the $225 call which is just a little bit above us, selling the $235. That’s a $10 spread that’s going to cost you about $3.11 so the difference would be your max profit which would be right here at about $692 total per option spread,” he said.

Disclaimer


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2020-01-15  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, facebook, gordon, thats, saw, strong, spread, ride, stock, big, high, earnings, predicts, trader, 235, upside


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Apple has hit another all-time high, and one trader says more records are ahead

That seemed to be what analysts all over were asking as the stock hit another all-time high on Thursday. Those upbeat expectations include calls from Wedbush and Piper Jaffray, both of which raised their price targets for Apple on perceived 5G iPhone demand. But Joule Financial Chief Investment Officer Quint Tatro said that he wouldn’t chase Apple’s record run here. “This is a stock [that is] trading [at] five times sales, 20 times forward earnings,” he said in the same “Trading Nation” intervie


That seemed to be what analysts all over were asking as the stock hit another all-time high on Thursday.
Those upbeat expectations include calls from Wedbush and Piper Jaffray, both of which raised their price targets for Apple on perceived 5G iPhone demand.
But Joule Financial Chief Investment Officer Quint Tatro said that he wouldn’t chase Apple’s record run here.
“This is a stock [that is] trading [at] five times sales, 20 times forward earnings,” he said in the same “Trading Nation” intervie
Apple has hit another all-time high, and one trader says more records are ahead Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-26  Authors: annie pei
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, run, trading, trader, rise, alltime, high, target, stock, strong, hit, ahead, apple, times, ways, apples, records


Apple has hit another all-time high, and one trader says more records are ahead

What’s not to like about Apple?

That seemed to be what analysts all over were asking as the stock hit another all-time high on Thursday. The shares jumped almost 2% on strong holiday season demand and a positive outlook from Wall Street going into the next year.

Those upbeat expectations include calls from Wedbush and Piper Jaffray, both of which raised their price targets for Apple on perceived 5G iPhone demand. They joined the likes of Citi, which did the same in early December citing the popularity of Apple’s wearables.

And Blue Line Capital founder and President Bill Baruch is joining the party.

“The consumer is amazing right now and that narrative’s driving things, but Apple has found ways to monetize in a number of ways,” he said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation,” mentioning that products and services like Apple TV have helped boost the tech giant’s shares.

Baruch also pointed to the charts for a strong technical case on Apple.

More specifically, he’s eyeing a target of about $324 based on Apple’s range from last year’s high to its low back in January, as well as its big breakout above $255 earlier this month. Baruch’s target represents a nearly 12% rise from Apple’s Thursday closing level of $289.91.

“I think we’re breaking out above the October run here in that range, so $324 is where I’m targeting on the upside and we may see that fairly quick[ly],” he said.

But Joule Financial Chief Investment Officer Quint Tatro said that he wouldn’t chase Apple’s record run here.

“This is a stock [that is] trading [at] five times sales, 20 times forward earnings,” he said in the same “Trading Nation” interview. “Traditionally, [it’s] a growth stock made popular as a value stock by Buffett, and it’s a very crowded trade.”

Tatro stressed that Apple can still go higher, but at its current levels and valuation it would be “dangerous” for investors to buy. Consequently, investors should “put it on the wish list” if they want to purchase or build a position in Apple, and hold the stock if they own it, he said.

With Thursday’s rise, Apple is now up 84% in 2019 — its best year in a decade — and has gained $533 billion in market cap during that time.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-26  Authors: annie pei
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, run, trading, trader, rise, alltime, high, target, stock, strong, hit, ahead, apple, times, ways, apples, records


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Peloton could run as much as 26% by March, trader bets

The firm, run by activist short-seller Andrew Left, set a $5 price target for Peloton’s stock, comparing it to two other fitness plays whose value eroded dramatically in the years following their public debuts: GoPro and Fitbit. It’s … hard to kind of build that content, where[as] Peloton, they’re producing the content themselves by highly paid professionals,” Gordon said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” Because there were no options available that expire near Peloton’s early February earnings repo


The firm, run by activist short-seller Andrew Left, set a $5 price target for Peloton’s stock, comparing it to two other fitness plays whose value eroded dramatically in the years following their public debuts: GoPro and Fitbit.
It’s … hard to kind of build that content, where[as] Peloton, they’re producing the content themselves by highly paid professionals,” Gordon said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
Because there were no options available that expire near Peloton’s early February earnings repo
Peloton could run as much as 26% by March, trader bets Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-20  Authors: lizzy gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, run, bets, stock, pelotons, trade, wife, peloton, think, trader, content, near, options, gordon


Peloton could run as much as 26% by March, trader bets

Peloton’s due for a pop.

That’s what TradingAnalysis.com founder Todd Gordon bet on this week as the struggling exercise equipment stock tumbled, falling over 6% in Friday’s trading session alone. Shares closed at $29.99.

Peloton has indeed become a target of Wall Street and Main Street criticism in recent weeks. An ad released by the company in early December about a husband buying his wife a Peloton bike encountered backlash from viewers who found it to have sexist undertones, and a note from short-selling firm Citron Research this week cast the company as flawed and “overly promotional,” with “an unrealistic valuation.”

But Gordon — who jokes that he’s guilty of being a “Peloton husband” because he bought his wife one of the company’s bikes as a gift — forecasts good things for the stock in the new year. Peloton shares are up less than 4% since the September IPO.

First, Gordon had his own critiques of Citron Research’s call. The firm, run by activist short-seller Andrew Left, set a $5 price target for Peloton’s stock, comparing it to two other fitness plays whose value eroded dramatically in the years following their public debuts: GoPro and Fitbit.

“GoPro, I think, failed in the social community because it relies on the end users to produce the content and also edit themselves. It’s … hard to kind of build that content, where[as] Peloton, they’re producing the content themselves by highly paid professionals,” Gordon said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

“Fitbit I don’t even think came anywhere near [having] a community that either GoPro or Peloton has, so I don’t think it’s comparing apples to apples here,” he said.

Gordon also saw some encouraging signs coming to the fore in Peloton’s chart despite the stock’s nearly 15% decline so far this month.

“[It] looks like we’ve got resistance that should come in right about [$]34, and a break through there should allow us to go up and potentially challenge new highs,” he said, pointing to the stock’s 20-day moving average.

To play the potential bounce, Gordon turned to the options market. Because there were no options available that expire near Peloton’s early February earnings report, he looked out to late March to make his bet.

“What I’d like to do in this trade is buy in the March 20 options,” Gordon said.

He bought the $34-strike call and sold the $38-strike call, which cost him between $1 and $1.10. That trade represents a bet that Peloton’s stock could climb between 13% and 26.7% from its Friday closing price.

“I’d even be willing to pay up to $1.20,” adding that investors could reap “about $300 of potential reward” by buying in near those levels.

As always, Gordon recommended position-sizing such that investors can exit the trade if the $1-$1.10 premium contracts.

Disclosure: CNBC parent Comcast-NBCUniversal is an investor in Peloton.

Disclaimer


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-20  Authors: lizzy gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, run, bets, stock, pelotons, trade, wife, peloton, think, trader, content, near, options, gordon


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One options trader just made a $2 million bet on Johnson & Johnson. Here’s why it could work out

Despite massive fallout from a major scandal that nearly took out the entirety of its 2019 gains, Johnson & Johnson has still managed to push itself 11% higher this year. That’s what Morgan Stanley thinks, and it’s what at least one options trader believes, as well. In fact, this trader threw down $2 million in a bet that the stock is headed even higher. As Nathan would point out, those calls break even if and when Johnson & Johnson hits $148.70, or about 4% higher than where it closed Tuesday.


Despite massive fallout from a major scandal that nearly took out the entirety of its 2019 gains, Johnson & Johnson has still managed to push itself 11% higher this year.
That’s what Morgan Stanley thinks, and it’s what at least one options trader believes, as well.
In fact, this trader threw down $2 million in a bet that the stock is headed even higher.
As Nathan would point out, those calls break even if and when Johnson & Johnson hits $148.70, or about 4% higher than where it closed Tuesday.

One options trader just made a $2 million bet on Johnson & Johnson. Here’s why it could work out Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-18  Authors: tyler bailey
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, nathan, work, options, stock, bet, morgan, johnson, million, stanley, higher, contract, heres, big, trader


One options trader just made a $2 million bet on Johnson & Johnson. Here's why it could work out

Despite massive fallout from a major scandal that nearly took out the entirety of its 2019 gains, Johnson & Johnson has still managed to push itself 11% higher this year.

The stock has rebounded just about right up to its 2019 highs, and a big call from one of the big banks has investors asking a big question: Is Johnson & Johnson really the most undervalued stock in health care?

That’s what Morgan Stanley thinks, and it’s what at least one options trader believes, as well. In fact, this trader threw down $2 million in a bet that the stock is headed even higher.

“One trader who appears to like this Morgan Stanley call rolled a call position up and out,” Dan Nathan, founder of Risk Reversal Advisors, said Tuesday on “Fast Money.” “Today, when the stock was trading at $143, there was a seller of 6,000 of the [January] 140-calls to close.

“They used the proceeds of $6.05 or so [per contract] to buy 6,000 of the [February] 145-calls, paying $3.70 for those.”

As Nathan would point out, those calls break even if and when Johnson & Johnson hits $148.70, or about 4% higher than where it closed Tuesday. Since each contract is worth 100 shares of stock, this translates to a bet valued at about $2 million in premium.

That’s a very big wager on a stock that has run very far, very quickly.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-18  Authors: tyler bailey
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, nathan, work, options, stock, bet, morgan, johnson, million, stanley, higher, contract, heres, big, trader


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Here’s the key level to watch in Home Depot as stock mounts a comeback: Trader

The “One Home Depot” plan “should increase and make operations more efficient going forward,” Gordon said. “You can see that we obviously have a very, very strong uptrend here in Home Depot,” Gordon said, citing the chart. Home Depot opened above the $218 level on Wednesday after overcoming that area of resistance in Tuesday’s trading session. But Gordon was anticipating a push even higher for the stock, possibly back to its early November highs. “We have another resistance [level] to contend wi


The “One Home Depot” plan “should increase and make operations more efficient going forward,” Gordon said.
“You can see that we obviously have a very, very strong uptrend here in Home Depot,” Gordon said, citing the chart.
Home Depot opened above the $218 level on Wednesday after overcoming that area of resistance in Tuesday’s trading session.
But Gordon was anticipating a push even higher for the stock, possibly back to its early November highs.
“We have another resistance [level] to contend wi
Here’s the key level to watch in Home Depot as stock mounts a comeback: Trader Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-18  Authors: lizzy gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, heres, gordon, stock, way, support, trade, earnings, mounts, risk, watch, trader, resistance, comeback, level, key, depot


Here's the key level to watch in Home Depot as stock mounts a comeback: Trader

Home Depot shares could be building toward a breakout.

That’s TradingAnalysis.com founder Todd Gordon’s latest call on the home improvement retailer’s stock, which has lost steam in the month after its most recent earnings report as shareholders worried about margin pressures, tied in part to the company’s $11 billion “One Home Depot” project meant to overhaul its online and in-store shopping experiences.

Even though Home Depot’s stock has fallen nearly 8% since it released its fiscal third-quarter results, its declines should be used to investors’ advantage, Gordon said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

The “One Home Depot” plan “should increase and make operations more efficient going forward,” Gordon said. “So, I do like the pullback here. I think it’s a short-term blip in an otherwise very strong uptrend.”

In addition to buying shares of Home Depot on its recent pullback, Gordon also liked the idea of using the options market to boost his potential gains.

“You can see that we obviously have a very, very strong uptrend here in Home Depot,” Gordon said, citing the chart. “Even in 2019, we could identify a pullback towards uptrend support here if we connect these lows.”

Having confirmed several floors of support including its 200-day moving average, displayed in red in the chart above, Home Depot’s action in recent weeks suggests the stock will at least stay above a key level, the trader said.

“You have a lot of support down into the 210 area, and as we zoom in even further, you can see that Home Depot has kind of dropped down into that [level] … several times to break through support,” Gordon said. “Buyers have stepped in, defended that level, and we’re starting to push higher.”

Home Depot opened above the $218 level on Wednesday after overcoming that area of resistance in Tuesday’s trading session.

But Gordon was anticipating a push even higher for the stock, possibly back to its early November highs.

“We have another resistance [level] to contend with around 224. I think that’s all quite doable, and … the prize that we might be targeting would be this gap close from that November earnings all the way up around the old highs around 240,” he said. “I don’t know if we’ll get that full push, but it certainly looks like we could at least break through this resistance and potentially move into the 230 mark.”

The way Gordon chose to capitalize on that prediction — which could mean new all-time highs for the stock — was by buying call options, or making a bullish bet, on Home Depot’s trajectory through the end of March.

“The option trade that I have ready for you guys will likely benefit even if we move up to that 230 mark,” Gordon said. “[I’m] going out into the March monthlys, we’re going to be buying the 225 call strike [and] selling the 235 call strike, which, again, would correspond to that gap close.”

That represents a bet that Home Depot will rise between about 3% and 7% by the end of March and, at the time of the trade, cost Gordon roughly $3.31, or $331 per spread, to execute.

“That’s all you can risk on this particular trade. Now, the way we like to position-size is that we generally try to risk about half of what we pay in terms of the debit. So, 330 cut in half roughly becomes $1.65 or $165 per option spread that you have at risk,” he said, adding that investors must “be sure to position-size such that you are in line with your risk tolerance.”

The trader’s one caveat was tied to the retailer’s next earnings report.

“We do have earnings coming up at the end of February, so we’ll decide if we want to carry this trade through earnings depending on how this overall trade is developing, but for now, we’re ready to go,” Gordon said.

Disclaimer


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-18  Authors: lizzy gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, heres, gordon, stock, way, support, trade, earnings, mounts, risk, watch, trader, resistance, comeback, level, key, depot


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Here’s why Tesla is a ‘faith stock,’ according to trader

The electric automaker’s stock has added 2% so far this month, better than the slight decline by the Nasdaq 100. Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global, says its status as a “faith stock” could mean a bigger move is ahead. Tesla has had a major run over the past three months, reversing its late spring and early summer slump. Since then the stock doubled, but now it’s overbought and at resistance in that $365-$380 area,” O’Hara said during the same segment. However, after its autumn rally, O’Hara w


The electric automaker’s stock has added 2% so far this month, better than the slight decline by the Nasdaq 100.
Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global, says its status as a “faith stock” could mean a bigger move is ahead.
Tesla has had a major run over the past three months, reversing its late spring and early summer slump.
Since then the stock doubled, but now it’s overbought and at resistance in that $365-$380 area,” O’Hara said during the same segment.
However, after its autumn rally, O’Hara w
Here’s why Tesla is a ‘faith stock,’ according to trader Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-09  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, rally, worried, ohara, really, run, tesla, faith, sanchez, resistance, stock, heres, according, trader, months


Here's why Tesla is a 'faith stock,' according to trader

Tesla shares are tapping the accelerator again.

The electric automaker’s stock has added 2% so far this month, better than the slight decline by the Nasdaq 100.

Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global, says its status as a “faith stock” could mean a bigger move is ahead.

“Tesla is definitely a faith stock and many investors in Tesla are really, really looking at the real long-term vision of this and willing to seemingly suffer a lot of pullbacks that happen in the interim and it causes the stock to develop an incredible momentum when it starts to run,” Sanchez said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

Tesla has had a major run over the past three months, reversing its late spring and early summer slump. The stock is up nearly 50% since early September.

Even so, Sanchez said it could be at risk of coming back down to earth.

“Remember, three months ago we were worried about production, six months ago we worried about production, this company still has issues, and when it overshoots like this, it naturally will come back,” Sanchez said. “No matter how bullish the story, it still has to block and tackle and meet all of the interim requirements in order to maintain that bull story.”

Morgan Stanley analysts upped their bull case price target to $500 last week on potential Cybertruck sales and growth into China. A move to that level would mark a 48% rally from current levels.

JC O’Hara, chief market technician at MKM Partners, said Tesla investors should get used to these wild moves in the shares.

“This stock is extremely susceptible to these large momentum swings. Just look back at last June. The stock was cut in half, it was on multiyear support at $185. Since then the stock doubled, but now it’s overbought and at resistance in that $365-$380 area,” O’Hara said during the same segment.

However, after its autumn rally, O’Hara warns that it could be building toward a breakdown.

“You know an overbought stock at resistance,” said O’Hara. “I would rather exercise some patience. Wait for a pullback, and I think that’ll be a better tactical buying opportunity.”

Disclaimer


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-12-09  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, rally, worried, ohara, really, run, tesla, faith, sanchez, resistance, stock, heres, according, trader, months


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Biotech is busting out, but trader says this corner of health care is better bet

There’s a burgeoning breakout in one corner of health care. The IBB biotech ETF has surged 6% over the past week, roughly triple the gains on the broader XLV health care ETF. Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, expects the group to continue to grind higher. Wald says biotech’s breakout is part of a broader move higher for health care. “We’ve been playing the strength actually more on the managed-care side,” Wald said, pointing to the IHF health care providers ETF.


There’s a burgeoning breakout in one corner of health care.
The IBB biotech ETF has surged 6% over the past week, roughly triple the gains on the broader XLV health care ETF.
Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, expects the group to continue to grind higher.
Wald says biotech’s breakout is part of a broader move higher for health care.
“We’ve been playing the strength actually more on the managed-care side,” Wald said, pointing to the IHF health care providers ETF.
Biotech is busting out, but trader says this corner of health care is better bet Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-26  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, really, sector, corner, think, better, biotech, busting, bet, etf, higher, care, trader, bapis, going, health, wald


Biotech is busting out, but trader says this corner of health care is better bet

There’s a burgeoning breakout in one corner of health care.

The IBB biotech ETF has surged 6% over the past week, roughly triple the gains on the broader XLV health care ETF.

Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, expects the group to continue to grind higher.

The IBB “had been in this narrowing range for the last year, that is to say it was making both higher lows and lower highs and the action really since the start in November has now resolved itself to the upside, so it’s been a very steep move,” Wald said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “The expectation should be higher lows, followed by higher highs.”

Wald says biotech’s breakout is part of a broader move higher for health care. However, he sees a better way to take advantage of that move.

“We’ve been playing the strength actually more on the managed-care side,” Wald said, pointing to the IHF health care providers ETF. “Very similar breakout in absolute terms. Why this one is really compelling for us is that relative to the market, it’s also breaking higher. It’s put in this bottom versus the S&P, it’s now made a higher high on a relative basis. I think the tide has turned, and that’s why that one really stands out.”

Michael Bapis, managing director of Vios Advisors at Rockefeller Capital Management, says it pays to be selective here.

“The momentum is there with the ETF, but it is a stock picker’s sector and it’s going to be, ‘Where’s the strongest R&D? Where’s the strongest pipeline for product?'” Bapis said during the same segment.

But Bapis cautioned that near-term headwinds from Washington could keep the sector on edge.

“The one negative to it, which will shake out in obviously 12 months, is the political landscape and going into the elections, there’s going to be a lot of talk around this sector. I think we’ll get past it. Short term, pretty positive. Long term I think we’re very positive on the space,” Bapis said.

Disclaimer


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-26  Authors: keris lahiff
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, really, sector, corner, think, better, biotech, busting, bet, etf, higher, care, trader, bapis, going, health, wald


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A legendary trader who made billions betting on wars, other macro events is closing his hedge fund

Longtime trader and hedge fund manager Louis Bacon is planning to shutter his firm and return capital to investors after 30 years of investment. The end of Moore Capital will mark one of the industry’s most prominent closures and follows years of weaker performance at the hedge fund. “Intense competition for trading talent coupled with client pressure on fees has led to a challenging business model for multi manager funds such as ours.” But he isn’t the only fund manager who has struggled in rec


Longtime trader and hedge fund manager Louis Bacon is planning to shutter his firm and return capital to investors after 30 years of investment.
The end of Moore Capital will mark one of the industry’s most prominent closures and follows years of weaker performance at the hedge fund.
“Intense competition for trading talent coupled with client pressure on fees has led to a challenging business model for multi manager funds such as ours.”
But he isn’t the only fund manager who has struggled in rec
A legendary trader who made billions betting on wars, other macro events is closing his hedge fund Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-21  Authors: thomas franck
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, billions, return, hedge, fund, equity, wars, events, bacon, letter, moore, funds, wrote, betting, legendary, trader, macro, closing, manager


A legendary trader who made billions betting on wars, other macro events is closing his hedge fund

Longtime trader and hedge fund manager Louis Bacon is planning to shutter his firm and return capital to investors after 30 years of investment.

The end of Moore Capital will mark one of the industry’s most prominent closures and follows years of weaker performance at the hedge fund.

“The time is propitious to take a step I have eyed for some time and ‘privatize’ our three multi manager flag ship funds — that is to say returning client assets,” Bacon wrote in a letter to clients viewed by CNBC.

“Disappointing results of these funds of the last few years obviously inform this decision but our long term record is one we remain proud of,” he continued. “Intense competition for trading talent coupled with client pressure on fees has led to a challenging business model for multi manager funds such as ours.”

Moore has delivered a net annualized return of 17.6% and a cumulative return of over 21,000% since inception for its flagship Remington funds but has returned low-single-digit gains this year, the manager noted.

Bacon, who founded Moore in 1989 with a $25,000 inheritance from his mother, is considered one of the most successful traders of his era. Bacon popularized trading on a “macro” basis, making bets on everything from U.S. equity to European bonds and Asian currencies based on what he expected from the global macroeconomy.

In Moore’s first full year, his wager that Saddam Hussein would invade Kuwait generated an 86% return, according to a letter Bacon wrote to document his firm’s first 20 years. The letter also said that 13 years later, Bacon’s accurate predictions on the market events surrounding the Iraq war would buoy fund returns 35%.

His fund also successfully bet against Japanese markets in the early 1990s and at one point managed more than $10 billion.

The most recent decade, however, proved tougher for Bacon, who scrambled to match his historical returns thanks to persistently low interest rates. A Moore fund managed by Bacon reportedly declined almost 6% in 2018 amid two spikes in market volatility; another company fund overseen by other managers fell 3.3%, according to the Financial Times, which first reported Moore’s impending closure.

“Challenging trading conditions and muted returns for our macro multimanager funds of late masks a vibrant success at Moore in our Long/Short Equity platform, our Private Equity and Venture group, our Real Estate and our Speciality Lending businesses,” Bacon wrote in the letter to investors.

But he isn’t the only fund manager who has struggled in recent years.

Billionaire Leon Cooperman announced the closure of his Omega Advisors in summer 2018, telling clients that he doesn’t “want to spend the rest of my life chasing the S&P 500.”

Fellow billionaire Jeffrey Vinik, who made a name for himself running Fidelity’s Magellan fund, told CNBC last month that he was closing his hedge fund less than one year since its relaunch.

“It has been much harder to raise money over the last several months than I anticipated,” Vinik said in a letter dated Wednesday to investors.

“The climate for raising long-short equity hedge fund assets has been far more difficult than I expected, and performance of the VAM funds, while good … has not provided the necessary momentum to bring in our desired level of investments.”

— CNBC’s Leslie Picker contributed reporting.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-21  Authors: thomas franck
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, billions, return, hedge, fund, equity, wars, events, bacon, letter, moore, funds, wrote, betting, legendary, trader, macro, closing, manager


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‘The bond phenomenon of 2019’ isn’t over yet, says trader

It’s been a big year for the bond market. One professional trader says the bond market’s wild ride is far from finished. “The bond phenomenon of 2019? “But that accommodative stance, no matter what your view is on the bond market, that has really been relevant. “We saw financials really get a jump, we saw industrials really get a jump, but it’s interesting about the bond market: I see a cap in the 2% yield on the 10-year note.”


It’s been a big year for the bond market.
One professional trader says the bond market’s wild ride is far from finished.
“The bond phenomenon of 2019?
“But that accommodative stance, no matter what your view is on the bond market, that has really been relevant.
“We saw financials really get a jump, we saw industrials really get a jump, but it’s interesting about the bond market: I see a cap in the 2% yield on the 10-year note.”
‘The bond phenomenon of 2019’ isn’t over yet, says trader Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-18  Authors: lizzy gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trader, kilburg, 2019, really, isnt, phenomenon, profits, investment, jacobs, think, bond, bank, lot, market


'The bond phenomenon of 2019' isn't over yet, says trader

It’s been a big year for the bond market.

U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to bond prices, have spent much of 2019 in decline, driven by a wave of easing central bank policies both domestically at the U.S. Federal Reserve and around the globe, most notably at the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.

The phenomenon has brought about record-low interest rates, with global debt surging to a record $250 trillion in the first six months of 2019, led by borrowing in the world’s two largest economies: the United States and China.

One professional trader says the bond market’s wild ride is far from finished.

“The bond phenomenon of 2019? I don’t think it’s over yet,” Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO of KKM Financial, said last week on CNBC’s “ETF Edge.”

Kilburg, who has more than 20 years of investment experience, found the biggest takeaway for the bond market this year to be the Fed’s wholesale policy reversal from its plan at the end of 2018 to raise interest rate three times to putting through three successive cuts.

“How quickly it changes,” Kilburg said. “But that accommodative stance, no matter what your view is on the bond market, that has really been relevant. … This is the most money we’ve seen in the system in 10 years. So, I think that money has to work its way through and therefore, when you look at the 10-year note being under 2% still in comparison to some of the other foreign … percentages like the German bund, I still think it’s still attractive. If we do get to 2%, I think you see that rebalance come back in and buy those Treasurys.”

Jay Jacobs, senior vice president and head of research and strategy at Global X ETFs, said longer-term bonds could take a short-term hit after a “fantastic” year of performance.

“People are starting to take those profits and move them into equities, where we’re starting to see kind of a warming equity market,” he said in the same “ETF Edge” interview. “I think the caution here is some of the equities that are more bond-like, like utilities, are very expensive, so people should probably look at the lower-valuation, cheaper-yielding stocks like in financials, where there’s better valuations, as a bond replacement.”

Kilburg agreed, calling U.S. equities “the best game in town” and adding that the completion of a phase one trade deal could spur even more of this kind of activity.

“It’d be interesting to see if we can actually have a rotation or simply book profits. We see a lot of registered investment advisors out there, active investors, trying to book those profits and find those sectors to rotate into,” he said. “We saw financials really get a jump, we saw industrials really get a jump, but it’s interesting about the bond market: I see a cap in the 2% yield on the 10-year note.”

That means longer-dated bonds, at least in the United States, are still showing relative strength heading into the end of the year, Kilburg said — a point Jacobs preferred to interpret with a somewhat tangential investment strategy.

“The U.S. financial system is just so much better capitalized right now [than its European counterpart] and [has] such better strength. It’s really a play on the U.S. consumer,” Jacobs said. “We’ve seen a lot of good expansion of credit, a lot of opening of new bank accounts, things that are a positive for these banks in the U.S., and you just don’t see any of that in Europe right now.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-11-18  Authors: lizzy gurdus
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, trader, kilburg, 2019, really, isnt, phenomenon, profits, investment, jacobs, think, bond, bank, lot, market


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