Dow set to jump more than 250 points as Wall Street cheers prospects of a US-China trade deal

U.S. stock index futures were higher Wednesday amid renewed optimism around the possibility of a permanent U.S.-China trade deal being struck. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 232 points, indicating a gain of 267.76 points. Optimism around trade lifted shares of Caterpillar and Boeing by more than 1 percent each before the bell. These stocks are seen as bellwethers for global trade because of their exposure to markets abroad. Wall Street had another wild session on Tuesday, with the


U.S. stock index futures were higher Wednesday amid renewed optimism around the possibility of a permanent U.S.-China trade deal being struck. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 232 points, indicating a gain of 267.76 points. Optimism around trade lifted shares of Caterpillar and Boeing by more than 1 percent each before the bell. These stocks are seen as bellwethers for global trade because of their exposure to markets abroad. Wall Street had another wild session on Tuesday, with the
Dow set to jump more than 250 points as Wall Street cheers prospects of a US-China trade deal Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-12  Authors: fred imbert, sam meredith
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, jump, street, chinese, wall, uschina, china, futures, trade, points, seen, talks, mahajan, deal, tariffs, prospects, trump, dow, set


Dow set to jump more than 250 points as Wall Street cheers prospects of a US-China trade deal

U.S. stock index futures were higher Wednesday amid renewed optimism around the possibility of a permanent U.S.-China trade deal being struck.

At around 7:02 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 232 points, indicating a gain of 267.76 points. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were also seen relatively upbeat.

Optimism around trade lifted shares of Caterpillar and Boeing by more than 1 percent each before the bell. These stocks are seen as bellwethers for global trade because of their exposure to markets abroad.

In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, President Donald Trump said he would intervene in the Justice Department’s case against a top executive at Chinese telecoms giant Huawei if it would help serve national security interests or help U.S.-Sino trade talks. Huawei is the one of the largest tech companies in China. It is also seen as a symbol of pride by the Chinese government.

The moves in premarket trade come after Trump said talks between Washington and Beijing were ongoing and confirmed he would not raise tariffs on Chinese imports until he was sure about a comprehensive trade agreement.

They also come after multiple reports pointed to China cutting tariffs on U.S.-made cars. A U.S. official told Reuters China indicated it will lower the tariffs, but the U.S. would wait on formal documentation and timing.

Wall Street had another wild session on Tuesday, with the Dow swinging more than 500 points before closing slightly lower.

“This intraday volatility is very headline-driven,” said Mona Mahajan, U.S. investment strategist at AllianzGI. “Between trade, the Federal Reserve and recession fears, it’s reason to give investors pause.”

“Investors are also more willing to sell rallies than buy dips. That’s the sentiment right now,” Mahajan said.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-12  Authors: fred imbert, sam meredith
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, jump, street, chinese, wall, uschina, china, futures, trade, points, seen, talks, mahajan, deal, tariffs, prospects, trump, dow, set


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Bernie Madoff’s inner circle, 10 years after his arrest

Bernie Madoff turned 80 in 2018. His longtime defense attorney, Ira Lee Sorkin, says he last spoke with Madoff earlier this year. He’s doing OK,” Sorkin said, “as well as one could expect someone to be OK when they know they’re going to die in prison.” In a 2013 interview at the prison, he said life behind bars was proving to be less stressful than life on Wall Street. “It’s kind of like being in the Army,” he said, “only you’re not worried about getting killed.”


Bernie Madoff turned 80 in 2018. His longtime defense attorney, Ira Lee Sorkin, says he last spoke with Madoff earlier this year. He’s doing OK,” Sorkin said, “as well as one could expect someone to be OK when they know they’re going to die in prison.” In a 2013 interview at the prison, he said life behind bars was proving to be less stressful than life on Wall Street. “It’s kind of like being in the Army,” he said, “only you’re not worried about getting killed.”
Bernie Madoff’s inner circle, 10 years after his arrest Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-09  Authors: scott cohn, timothy a clary, afp, getty images, peter kramer, nbc newswire, nbcuniversal, nbc, louis lanzano, bloomberg
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, madoff, arrest, madoffs, ok, worried, yearhes, sorkin, life, 10th, bernie, circle, youre, inner, wall, wrote


Bernie Madoff's inner circle, 10 years after his arrest

Bernie Madoff turned 80 in 2018. He apparently marked the occasion quietly at the medium security Federal Correctional Institution in Butner, North Carolina, where he is in the 10th year of a 150-year sentence. His longtime defense attorney, Ira Lee Sorkin, says he last spoke with Madoff earlier this year.

“He’s keeping his mind active. He’s doing OK,” Sorkin said, “as well as one could expect someone to be OK when they know they’re going to die in prison.”

Madoff has cut back on his contacts with the news media, not responding to multiple emails from CNBC ahead of the 10th anniversary of his arrest on Dec. 11, 2008. In a 2013 interview at the prison, he said life behind bars was proving to be less stressful than life on Wall Street.

“It’s kind of like being in the Army,” he said, “only you’re not worried about getting killed.”

But in a 2015 email, he wrote, “I’m hanging in there. I miss my family terribly. How on earth did I get myself into this nightmare?”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-09  Authors: scott cohn, timothy a clary, afp, getty images, peter kramer, nbc newswire, nbcuniversal, nbc, louis lanzano, bloomberg
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, madoff, arrest, madoffs, ok, worried, yearhes, sorkin, life, 10th, bernie, circle, youre, inner, wall, wrote


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The bear market is here, and stocks will plunge at least 20 percent, Ned Davis Research warns

This is already a bear market, stocks are plunging at least 20 percent: Ned Davis Research 5:09 PM ET Thu, 6 Dec 2018 | 01:56The wild trading that’s gripped Wall Street may be no ordinary correction. According to Ned Davis Research’s Ed Clissold, a bear market is officially here. A bear market is defined as an environment when overwhelming pessimism sparks a 20 percent drop or more from recent highs. Originally, Clissold called for a bear market to hit Wall Street in 2019, due to jitters over in


This is already a bear market, stocks are plunging at least 20 percent: Ned Davis Research 5:09 PM ET Thu, 6 Dec 2018 | 01:56The wild trading that’s gripped Wall Street may be no ordinary correction. According to Ned Davis Research’s Ed Clissold, a bear market is officially here. A bear market is defined as an environment when overwhelming pessimism sparks a 20 percent drop or more from recent highs. Originally, Clissold called for a bear market to hit Wall Street in 2019, due to jitters over in
The bear market is here, and stocks will plunge at least 20 percent, Ned Davis Research warns Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-09  Authors: stephanie landsman, spencer platt, getty images, tnwa photography, source, david a grogan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, plunge, street, market, warns, clissold, stocks, bear, 20, research, thats, high, hit, ned, davis, wall, going


The bear market is here, and stocks will plunge at least 20 percent, Ned Davis Research warns

This is already a bear market, stocks are plunging at least 20 percent: Ned Davis Research 5:09 PM ET Thu, 6 Dec 2018 | 01:56

The wild trading that’s gripped Wall Street may be no ordinary correction.

According to Ned Davis Research’s Ed Clissold, a bear market is officially here.

“If you take this as a typical bear market, not associated with a recession, it’s going to take you down around 20 percent — maybe a little bit more,” the firm’s chief U.S. market strategist told CNBC’s “Futures Now” last week. “That’s what we need to be thinking about over the next several months.”

A bear market is defined as an environment when overwhelming pessimism sparks a 20 percent drop or more from recent highs.

In this case, it would wipe out 588 points from the S&P 500’s all-time high of 2940.91 hit on Sept. 21. The index closed Friday in correction territory at 2,633.08. That’s down 10 percent from the high and 4.6 percent for the week.

Originally, Clissold called for a bear market to hit Wall Street in 2019, due to jitters over interest rate hike risks, U.S.-China trade tensions and slowing growth in earnings and the economy.

However, he decided to move up his forecast due to “severe” technical damage from the October correction. Now, it appears the market may soon get hit with another batch of discouraging news.

“Earnings growth is becoming a front-burner issue. Everybody expected it to slow down next year because we don’t have the benefit of tax cuts. But the slowdown is probably going to be more than expected,” said Clissold.

Earnings revisions have “already started to come down, and that’s going to continue to plague the market for a few more months.”

He may be predicting a deep pullback, but he does not see any signs of a recession. By spring, Clissold said, the pain will be largely behind the Street.

“The average nonrecession bear lasts about seven months. So, that’ll take us into early second quarter, and then we can look for a bottoming process from there,” Clissold said.

Despite the looming trouble, Clissold expects stocks will stage a healthy rally in the second half of 2019 and the market will ultimately see high single-digit to low double-digit gains by the end of next year.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-09  Authors: stephanie landsman, spencer platt, getty images, tnwa photography, source, david a grogan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, plunge, street, market, warns, clissold, stocks, bear, 20, research, thats, high, hit, ned, davis, wall, going


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What walls in history can tell us about the fight over Trump’s border barrier

A wall, in its most basic form, is a physical barrier. A wall can keep people out or hold people in and almost always creates some sort of divide. In Berlin, it was an infamous blockade, and in America it’s an emblem of a fiery, divisive, political debate. So how will this time be remembered in history, if at all? Watch the video above to learn what history can tell us about the U.S.-Mexico border today.


A wall, in its most basic form, is a physical barrier. A wall can keep people out or hold people in and almost always creates some sort of divide. In Berlin, it was an infamous blockade, and in America it’s an emblem of a fiery, divisive, political debate. So how will this time be remembered in history, if at all? Watch the video above to learn what history can tell us about the U.S.-Mexico border today.
What walls in history can tell us about the fight over Trump’s border barrier Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-05  Authors: jaden urbi
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, sort, tell, walls, border, today, video, history, usmexico, fight, barrier, politicala, system, remembered, trumps, wall


What walls in history can tell us about the fight over Trump's border barrier

A wall, in its most basic form, is a physical barrier. In isolation, it’s not political.

A wall can keep people out or hold people in and almost always creates some sort of divide. In China it was an ancient defense system and that became a national landmark. In Berlin, it was an infamous blockade, and in America it’s an emblem of a fiery, divisive, political debate. So how will this time be remembered in history, if at all?

Watch the video above to learn what history can tell us about the U.S.-Mexico border today.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-05  Authors: jaden urbi
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, sort, tell, walls, border, today, video, history, usmexico, fight, barrier, politicala, system, remembered, trumps, wall


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Asian stocks stumble, following Wall Street plunge

Stocks in Asia traded down Wednesday morning after an overnight plunge on Wall Street as investors worried about a potential economic slowdown and the state of the U.S.-China trade war. The mainland Chinese markets, closely watched in relation to Beijing’s ongoing dispute with Washington, remained cautious by the end of the morning session. The Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index, which measures economic activity in China’s services sector, rose to 53.8 in November — its highest in five m


Stocks in Asia traded down Wednesday morning after an overnight plunge on Wall Street as investors worried about a potential economic slowdown and the state of the U.S.-China trade war. The mainland Chinese markets, closely watched in relation to Beijing’s ongoing dispute with Washington, remained cautious by the end of the morning session. The Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index, which measures economic activity in China’s services sector, rose to 53.8 in November — its highest in five m
Asian stocks stumble, following Wall Street plunge Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-05  Authors: eustance huang
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, chinese, xi, composite, asian, ministry, morning, stocks, stumble, index, economic, chinas, wall, worried, street, plunge, services, following


Asian stocks stumble, following Wall Street plunge

Stocks in Asia traded down Wednesday morning after an overnight plunge on Wall Street as investors worried about a potential economic slowdown and the state of the U.S.-China trade war.

The mainland Chinese markets, closely watched in relation to Beijing’s ongoing dispute with Washington, remained cautious by the end of the morning session. The Shanghai composite declined 0.21 percent while the Shenzhen composite was largely flat.

The Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index, which measures economic activity in China’s services sector, rose to 53.8 in November — its highest in five months — as compared to 50.8 in October.

Earlier in the day, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on its website that the weekend meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was successful. The ministry also said the two countries will push ahead with negotiations within 90 days, and Beijing will work to address issues agreed upon as quickly as possible.

Meanwhile, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong also fell by 1.54 percent. Shares of vehicle maker Baic Motor dropped 9.29 percent following a Bloomberg report that Germany’s Daimler is considering increasing its stake in its joint venture with the Chinese firm.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-05  Authors: eustance huang
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, chinese, xi, composite, asian, ministry, morning, stocks, stumble, index, economic, chinas, wall, worried, street, plunge, services, following


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Cramer calls a bottom on Facebook’s stock, which has fallen nearly 24% since mid-March

His charitable trust, which still owns Facebook shares, has trimmed its position in recent months. Facebook shares closed March 16 at about $185, a day before news broke of Cambridge Analytica’s data misuse. Under scrutiny over data privacy from Washington and Wall Street, Facebook clawed its way to an all-time high during the July 25 trading of over $218 per share. Facebook’s 52-week low on Wall Street was $126.85 on Nov. 20. About two weeks ago, Cramer said Facebook’s stock could rise if Sandb


His charitable trust, which still owns Facebook shares, has trimmed its position in recent months. Facebook shares closed March 16 at about $185, a day before news broke of Cambridge Analytica’s data misuse. Under scrutiny over data privacy from Washington and Wall Street, Facebook clawed its way to an all-time high during the July 25 trading of over $218 per share. Facebook’s 52-week low on Wall Street was $126.85 on Nov. 20. About two weeks ago, Cramer said Facebook’s stock could rise if Sandb
Cramer calls a bottom on Facebook’s stock, which has fallen nearly 24% since mid-March Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: berkeley lovelace jr, scott mlyn
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stock, midmarch, fallen, shares, sandberg, wall, low, 24, calls, cramer, recent, facebook, facebooks, nearly, street, months


Cramer calls a bottom on Facebook's stock, which has fallen nearly 24% since mid-March

Facebook may have finally reached a bottom after a tumultuous eight months that saw the stock lose nearly a quarter of its value, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday.

Shares of Facebook, as of Monday’s $141 close, slumped 23.8 percent since mid-March when the Cambridge Analytica scandal came to light. The embattled social media giant was down fractionally on Tuesday.

“I think Facebook, which is an unmitigated disaster, is bottoming,” Cramer said on “Squawk on the Street.” His charitable trust, which still owns Facebook shares, has trimmed its position in recent months.

Facebook shares closed March 16 at about $185, a day before news broke of Cambridge Analytica’s data misuse. Ten days after that, Facebook hit a then-intraday low of around $149, which represented a 19 percent decline.

Under scrutiny over data privacy from Washington and Wall Street, Facebook clawed its way to an all-time high during the July 25 trading of over $218 per share. But since then, Facebook lost 35 percent as of Monday, firmly in a bear market as defined by an asset or index decline of 20 percent or more from recent highs.

Facebook’s 52-week low on Wall Street was $126.85 on Nov. 20.

For months, Cramer has been critical of Facebook and most recently its Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg, who was reportedly blamed by Facebook co-founder, chairman and CEO Mark Zuckerberg for the company’s problems.

About two weeks ago, Cramer said Facebook’s stock could rise if Sandberg were to resign or be ousted. Then on Friday, a day after an expose by The New York Times, the “Mad Money” host questioned how Sandberg could possibly stay.

WATCH: Why Facebook’s business model is only now coming under fire


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: berkeley lovelace jr, scott mlyn
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, stock, midmarch, fallen, shares, sandberg, wall, low, 24, calls, cramer, recent, facebook, facebooks, nearly, street, months


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The ‘yield curve’ explained and how it became Wall Street’s barometer

The rate on the 2-year note is inching closer to that of the 10-year, making that ordinarily upward sloping curve flatter. The 2-year rate is dangerously close to rising above the 10-year, in fact. That creates a topsy-turvy condition Wall Street analysts like to call “inversion,” where the line of the slope shifts downward. If the historic pattern holds, an inverted yield curve would mean recession is on the horizon. At times when the curve has inverted, the S&P 500 was down an average of 1.9 p


The rate on the 2-year note is inching closer to that of the 10-year, making that ordinarily upward sloping curve flatter. The 2-year rate is dangerously close to rising above the 10-year, in fact. That creates a topsy-turvy condition Wall Street analysts like to call “inversion,” where the line of the slope shifts downward. If the historic pattern holds, an inverted yield curve would mean recession is on the horizon. At times when the curve has inverted, the S&P 500 was down an average of 1.9 p
The ‘yield curve’ explained and how it became Wall Street’s barometer Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: liz moyer, drew angerer, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 2year, inversion, recession, rate, streets, times, wall, 10year, wrong, explained, yield, barometer, curve, note


The 'yield curve' explained and how it became Wall Street's barometer

The rate on the 2-year note is inching closer to that of the 10-year, making that ordinarily upward sloping curve flatter. The 2-year rate is dangerously close to rising above the 10-year, in fact. That creates a topsy-turvy condition Wall Street analysts like to call “inversion,” where the line of the slope shifts downward.

If the historic pattern holds, an inverted yield curve would mean recession is on the horizon. It won’t be immediate, but recessions have followed inversions a few months to two years later several times over many decades.

“In a longer range chart going back to 1962, there has never been a recession that wasn’t preceded by an inversion of the yield curve,” explained Bespoke Investment Group in a note to clients earlier this year.

The rate on the 2-year has already jumped above the shorter-term 5-year note, a move that suggests the “economy is poised to weaken,” DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday. Gundlach, a noted bond investor, has been warning investors to be cautious.

Gundlach’s comment and increased fears about an economic slowdown pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down as much as 600 points at midday on Tuesday.

Some traders are focused on what these shifts in the bond market signal for the stock market, which has been on a nine-year bull run. At times when the curve has inverted, the S&P 500 was down an average of 1.9 percent 12 months later.

Michael Darda, the chief economist at MKM Partners, says people may be too focused on the wrong data. “Recession forecasting is fraught with difficulty, so it’s important that we don’t make it more difficult than it has to be by focusing on the wrong indicators, or, at a minimum, less reliable ones,” he said in a note Tuesday, pointing out that the difference between the 2- and 5-year rates are not reliable indicators.

It is the difference between the 10-year and the 1-year that everyone should worry about, he said, and that shows no inversion, yet.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: liz moyer, drew angerer, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 2year, inversion, recession, rate, streets, times, wall, 10year, wrong, explained, yield, barometer, curve, note


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Dow plunges nearly 800 points on rising fears of an economic slowdown

Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday in the biggest decline since the October rout as investors worried about a bond-market phenomenon signaling a possible economic slowdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 799.36 points, or 3.1 percent, to close at 25,027.07 and posted its worst day since Oct. 10. Financials were the worst performers in the S&P 500 plunging 4.4 percent. Utilities was the only positive sector in the S&P 500, rising 0.16 percent. The Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap stocks, d


Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday in the biggest decline since the October rout as investors worried about a bond-market phenomenon signaling a possible economic slowdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 799.36 points, or 3.1 percent, to close at 25,027.07 and posted its worst day since Oct. 10. Financials were the worst performers in the S&P 500 plunging 4.4 percent. Utilities was the only positive sector in the S&P 500, rising 0.16 percent. The Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap stocks, d
Dow plunges nearly 800 points on rising fears of an economic slowdown Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: fred imbert, brendan mcdermid, getty images, loic venance, afp, monica almeida, kcna, thomas barwick getty images, source, lawrence mcdonald
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 500, points, day, wall, 800, slowdown, economic, close, rising, worst, sp, stocks, nearly, fell, inversion, fears, dow, yield, plunges


Dow plunges nearly 800 points on rising fears of an economic slowdown

Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday in the biggest decline since the October rout as investors worried about a bond-market phenomenon signaling a possible economic slowdown. Lingering worries around U.S.-China trade also added to jitters down Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 799.36 points, or 3.1 percent, to close at 25,027.07 and posted its worst day since Oct. 10. At its low of the day, the Dow had fallen more than 800 points.

The S&P 500 declined 3.2 percent to close at 2,700.06. The benchmark fell below its 200-day moving average, which triggered more selling from algorithmic funds. Financials were the worst performers in the S&P 500 plunging 4.4 percent. Utilities was the only positive sector in the S&P 500, rising 0.16 percent.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.8 percent to close back in correction territory at 7,158.43. The Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap stocks, dropped 4.4 percent to 1,480.75, marking its worst day since 2011. Trading volume in U.S. stocks was also higher than usual on Wall Street.

The yield on the three-year Treasury note surpassed its five-year counterpart on Monday. When a so-called yield curve inversion happens — short-term yields trading above longer-term rates — a recession could follow, though it is often years away after the signal triggers. Still, many traders believe the inversion won’t be official until the 2-year yield rises above the 10 year yield, which has not happened yet.

Stocks began falling to their lows of the day after Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of Doubleline Capital, told Reuters this inversion signals that the economy “is poised to weaken.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: fred imbert, brendan mcdermid, getty images, loic venance, afp, monica almeida, kcna, thomas barwick getty images, source, lawrence mcdonald
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, 500, points, day, wall, 800, slowdown, economic, close, rising, worst, sp, stocks, nearly, fell, inversion, fears, dow, yield, plunges


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‘We’ve got a path to finding an exit on the trade war highway,’ Wall Street bull Art Hogan says

B. Riley FBR’s Art Hogan sees the weekend’s truce between the U.S. and China on trade as a market driver for the next four weeks. “That’s going to be helpful.” That’s about 4 percent away from Hogan’s S&P year-end target of 2,900. I think that continues the more better news we get on trade,” said Hogan. Yet his 2019 S&P year-end target is 3,250, a 15 percent jump from current levels.


B. Riley FBR’s Art Hogan sees the weekend’s truce between the U.S. and China on trade as a market driver for the next four weeks. “That’s going to be helpful.” That’s about 4 percent away from Hogan’s S&P year-end target of 2,900. I think that continues the more better news we get on trade,” said Hogan. Yet his 2019 S&P year-end target is 3,250, a 15 percent jump from current levels.
‘We’ve got a path to finding an exit on the trade war highway,’ Wall Street bull Art Hogan says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: stephanie landsman, brendan mcdermid, getty images, loic venance, afp, monica almeida, kcna, thomas barwick getty images, source, lawrence mcdonald
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, highway, street, dollar, wall, war, hogan, path, finding, weve, better, think, thats, tariffs, yearend, going, trade, exit, sp


'We've got a path to finding an exit on the trade war highway,' Wall Street bull Art Hogan says

Investors can stop worrying about a major obstacle blocking a year-end rally, according to one of Wall Street’s biggest bulls.

B. Riley FBR’s Art Hogan sees the weekend’s truce between the U.S. and China on trade as a market driver for the next four weeks.

“China, the rhetoric, really was heating up over the course of October and November, and now it feels as though we’ve got a path to finding an exit on the trade war highway,” the chief market strategist said Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “That’s going to be helpful.”

Stocks were down Tuesday after kicking off the month with strong gains. The Dow on Monday grabbed 287.97 points to close at 25,826.43 and the S&P 500 gained 30.20 points to close at 2,790.37. That’s about 4 percent away from Hogan’s S&P year-end target of 2,900.

Also, in the past two days, the dollar is down 1.75 percent against the Chinese yuan. On Sept. 11, the dollar also fell after a report indicated senior U.S. officials were looking to jump-start trade talks with China

“Notice how much the dollar has come off every time we get better news on trade. I think that continues the more better news we get on trade,” said Hogan. “And, I think a weaker dollar here is certainly going to help our multinationals and help our concerns about emerging markets.”

Despite his overall optimism, Hogan says economic and earnings growth will slow down next year.

“We’re not going to duplicate the sugar high that we had in 2018,” Hogan said, adding that the year-old fiscal stimulus will no longer appear in the data comparisons. Plus, he believes the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates three more times in the next 13 months, a move that will tilt in favor of more conservative growth.

Yet his 2019 S&P year-end target is 3,250, a 15 percent jump from current levels.

“The good news we don’t have to factor in tariffs or at least the magnitude of tariffs we thought we’d have to factor in,” Hogan said. “We’re in a better place than we were a week ago.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-04  Authors: stephanie landsman, brendan mcdermid, getty images, loic venance, afp, monica almeida, kcna, thomas barwick getty images, source, lawrence mcdonald
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, highway, street, dollar, wall, war, hogan, path, finding, weve, better, think, thats, tariffs, yearend, going, trade, exit, sp


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To make the bullish case for 2019, Wall Street looks to the mid-1990s

The S&P 500’s price-earnings multiple was compressed dramatically through a combination of earnings growth and flat indexes. He notes that in ’94 and this year, Fed hikes flattened the yield curve dramatically, with the gap between the two- and 10-year Treasurys sinking below 0.2 percentage point, but never quite flattening entirely. “The exact same thing happened in 1994, when the market bottomed as soon as the [bond market] started pricing in fewer rate hikes. This was in November 1994 when th


The S&P 500’s price-earnings multiple was compressed dramatically through a combination of earnings growth and flat indexes. He notes that in ’94 and this year, Fed hikes flattened the yield curve dramatically, with the gap between the two- and 10-year Treasurys sinking below 0.2 percentage point, but never quite flattening entirely. “The exact same thing happened in 1994, when the market bottomed as soon as the [bond market] started pricing in fewer rate hikes. This was in November 1994 when th
To make the bullish case for 2019, Wall Street looks to the mid-1990s Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-03  Authors: michael santoli, brendan mcdermid
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, economy, market, bullish, looks, 2019, growth, rates, rate, mid1990s, hikes, 1994, fed, sp, inflation, case, wall, street


To make the bullish case for 2019, Wall Street looks to the mid-1990s

It’s been a hard-fought and often-frustrating year for stocks.

A gaudy display of corporate-profit growth, a huge tax cut, an acceleration in the U.S. economy and record share buybacks have been enough to push the S&P 500 only a few percent into the green for 2018 — after two separate double-digit drops eight months apart.

So, as the year enters its final weeks, maybe it’s no surprise that Wall Street’s optimists looking to make a bullish case for 2019 are reaching back almost a quarter century for a similar setup that worked out well.

The year 1994, the bulls hopefully insist, resembles 2018 in several important ways:

After a few years of sluggish growth and low interest rates, the U.S. economy was heating up and the Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively to head off inflation. At the time, breaking below 6 percent unemployment (somewhat like 4 percent now) was viewed as risking a wage-inflation “overshoot,” and the rate sliced below 6 percent in 1994.

The major indexes were flattish for the year but sustained a “rolling correction,” with financial stocks and small caps crunched and the “average stock” dropping.

The S&P 500’s price-earnings multiple was compressed dramatically through a combination of earnings growth and flat indexes.

Credit markets weakened significantly, raising worries about corporate balance sheets.

It was a midterm election year when the opposition party to a first-term president logged huge gains to take control of the House amid widespread worry over deficits.

Tony Dwyer, strategist at Canaccord Genuity, has been citing the echoes of 1994 in the recent cadence of the economy and markets, which inform his upbeat forecast for the S&P 500 to surge by 15 percent over the next several months. He notes that in ’94 and this year, Fed hikes flattened the yield curve dramatically, with the gap between the two- and 10-year Treasurys sinking below 0.2 percentage point, but never quite flattening entirely.

Near the end of 1994, the Fed signaled that it would ease up on rate hikes as the economy slowed, and stocks rushed higher through all of 1995, as bond yields fell sharply across the curve.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, has been detailing the parallels too, and ties it to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s perceived effort last week to soften the outlook for the pace of further rate increases after this month.

“With growth slowing, credit spreads now widening, and both real rates and TIPS [inflation-protected bonds] breaks coming down, the Fed certainly has the cover to guide the market that it plans to space out its remaining four hikes over several years instead of several quarters,” he said.

“The exact same thing happened in 1994, when the market bottomed as soon as the [bond market] started pricing in fewer rate hikes. This was in November 1994 when the S&P 500 suffered its second 10% drawdown in less than a year. The Fed kept raising rates … but that was the point when expectations peaked. It was all that the market needed to hear.”

A look at the S&P in 1994 and 1995 offers a clear hint why bullish investors might wish for a replay.

Chairman Powell himself has invoked the lessons of this period as well. In his speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming, conference in August, he devoted several paragraphs to extolling the wisdom of his predecessor Alan Greenspan for throttling back on tightening as he saw a productivity revolution taking hold that would allow the economy to run hotter without generating as much inflation. Powell was putting this out there to suggest a comparable moment might be ahead now, with the link between growth and inflation very much in question.

Barry Knapp, former Barclays strategist and founder of Ironsides Macro Research, says he sees current heavy capital investment in software and other technologies raising the prospect for another productivity bump that would allow the economic cycle to last a while longer with benign inflation and high corporate profit margins.

This is where it becomes necessary to complicate this happy picture with important differences between 1994 and now, and the relative rarity of that late-’90s corporate and investor nirvana.

This expansion might not be winding down very soon, but however it’s sliced the current economic and credit cycles are certainly more mature than in the early ’90s recovery was back then. Corporate profit margins in ’94 were half of current levels and rising fairly fast, offering an extra boost to earnings. The forward price/earnings ratio in ’94 went from 15 down nearly to 12, compared to the trip from 18 to a bit over 15 now.

And, as Gluskin Sheff economist has been noting, Wall Street loves the 1994 analogy because it was virtually the only time a Fed “pause” engineered the perfect “soft landing” rather than a more serious growth scare or recession.

This bull-market cycle arguably already had its rerun of 1995-style low-drama levitation in 2013, when the Fed calmed fears of the end of its stimulus and a modestly valued stock market marched higher by 30 percent. In fact, the market’s inability this year to hold two separate all-time highs despite surging profits has many strategists on alert for confirmation of something far nastier.

So it probably doesn’t make sense to pencil in for next year a low-volatility melt-up in the S&P 500 just because this year was a high-stress trench war of valuation compression fought against a tough-love Fed.

But it helps to know what history has to say about how such periods can sometimes — when everything breaks just right — redeem the dearest wishes of the bulls.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-12-03  Authors: michael santoli, brendan mcdermid
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, economy, market, bullish, looks, 2019, growth, rates, rate, mid1990s, hikes, 1994, fed, sp, inflation, case, wall, street


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