Ron Insana: The market doesn’t realize this is more than a trade war — it’s a new Cold War

Chinese President Xi Jinping chats with President Donald Trump during a welcome ceremony in Beijing on Nov. 9, 2017. The group wrote white papers and sent letters to then-President Bill Clinton urging him and his foreign policy team to support regime change in Iraq. In some ways, it is reminiscent of the claim that we take President Donald Trump seriously, but not literally. Those who viewed Bush 43’s Iraq comments seriously, but not literally, were somewhat taken aback when the U.S. moved on Ir


Chinese President Xi Jinping chats with President Donald Trump during a welcome ceremony in Beijing on Nov. 9, 2017. The group wrote white papers and sent letters to then-President Bill Clinton urging him and his foreign policy team to support regime change in Iraq. In some ways, it is reminiscent of the claim that we take President Donald Trump seriously, but not literally. Those who viewed Bush 43’s Iraq comments seriously, but not literally, were somewhat taken aback when the U.S. moved on Ir
Ron Insana: The market doesn’t realize this is more than a trade war — it’s a new Cold War Cached Page below :
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Ron Insana: The market doesn't realize this is more than a trade war — it's a new Cold War

Chinese President Xi Jinping chats with President Donald Trump during a welcome ceremony in Beijing on Nov. 9, 2017. AP Photo | Andy Wong

Back in 1997, a group of neoconservatives founded “The Project for a New American Century.” Led by Bill Kristol and other so-called neocons, including former Vice President Dick Cheney, former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and current National Security Director John Bolton, the group called for a major revamp of American foreign policy initiatives, broadly with respect to the Middle East and, specifically, with regard to Iraq. The group wrote white papers and sent letters to then-President Bill Clinton urging him and his foreign policy team to support regime change in Iraq. While Clinton may have recognized Saddam Hussein as a serious threat, it would be George W. Bush who would populate his foreign policy team with these group members and ultimately follow their lead into Baghdad.

Regime change in Iraq was something that Bush campaigned on, although no one took him seriously at the time. No one should have been shocked when 9/11 served as a predicate for toppling Saddam in 2003. In some ways, it is reminiscent of the claim that we take President Donald Trump seriously, but not literally. Those who viewed Bush 43’s Iraq comments seriously, but not literally, were somewhat taken aback when the U.S. moved on Iraq. They should not have been. Similarly today, Trump’s closest advisors, including Robert Lighthizer and Peter Navarro, have identified China as the foremost threat to the United States in the years and decades ahead. They argue, even more than the president himself, that China represents an existential economic and military threat to the U.S. and often imply that nothing less than crippling China’s economy will prevent Beijing from becoming stronger than the U.S. in military terms, threatening U.S. interests in the Pacific and becoming the world’s leading economic power in the next 10-15 years. The president himself, like Bush 43 before him, is putting all his stock in these individuals who have more apocalyptic views of the world than advisors who have since departed the White House. He has also stated plainly that he intends to win the “trade war” with China after the U.S. suffered through decades of unfair Chinese actions on the trade front. While there is good reason to challenge China on a variety of fronts and force them to change behavior that hurt the U.S., and other major trading partners, it is not inevitable that China is as dangerous as members of this administration claim.

Financial WMDs?

China, although it has more than $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, is also awash in debt and excess capacity from its housing supply to its manufacturing industries. Its economy is already weakening while its demographic profile is becoming a drag on growth. That, however, is not stopping this group from pressing China as hard as possible operating, as others did with respect to Iraq, on the assumption that China could somehow destroy the U.S. economically and militarily someday in the near future. That may be a dubious claim, as was the one about Iraq having weapons of mass destruction. Like Bush, Trump appears to truly believe this is a war easily won with few adverse implications for the U.S. The financial markets are beginning to show signs of disagreement. Stocks, especially those exposed to China, are falling hard. So are interest rates, as U.S. 10-year note yields are at an 18-month low. Economically sensitive commodities like copper and oil are weakening as well, sending a market message that fears of slowing global growth are a direct result of the widening fight with China.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-24  Authors: ron insana
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China’s ‘nuclear option’ in Trump’s trade war, explained

What to watch in the market in the week aheadTrade could be a big factor for markets in the week ahead, but investors will also be attuned to fresh inflation data and the bond market, which is flashing new worries about…Market Insiderread more


What to watch in the market in the week aheadTrade could be a big factor for markets in the week ahead, but investors will also be attuned to fresh inflation data and the bond market, which is flashing new worries about…Market Insiderread more
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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-24  Authors: jeff morganteen
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China's 'nuclear option' in Trump's trade war, explained

What to watch in the market in the week ahead

Trade could be a big factor for markets in the week ahead, but investors will also be attuned to fresh inflation data and the bond market, which is flashing new worries about…

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Trump predicts ‘fast’ trade deal with China but provides no evidence

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday predicted a swift end to the ongoing trade war with China, although no high-level talks have been scheduled between the two countries since the last round of negotiations ended in Washington two weeks ago. Trump also said he will meet with China’s President Xi Jinping when they attend the G-20 meeting next month in Japan. After Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods last year, China curbed purchases of U.S. soy, leaving farmers sitting on a stockpile of th


U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday predicted a swift end to the ongoing trade war with China, although no high-level talks have been scheduled between the two countries since the last round of negotiations ended in Washington two weeks ago. Trump also said he will meet with China’s President Xi Jinping when they attend the G-20 meeting next month in Japan. After Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods last year, China curbed purchases of U.S. soy, leaving farmers sitting on a stockpile of th
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Trump predicts 'fast' trade deal with China but provides no evidence

President Donald Trump speaks about the investigations by Special Counsel Robert Mueller and the U.S. Congress into himself and his administration in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 22, 2019.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday predicted a swift end to the ongoing trade war with China, although no high-level talks have been scheduled between the two countries since the last round of negotiations ended in Washington two weeks ago.

“It’s happening, it’s happening fast and I think things probably are going to happen with China fast because I cannot imagine that they can be thrilled with thousands of companies leaving their shores for other places,” Trump said during remarks at the White House, providing no evidence of such an exodus.

Trump also said he will meet with China’s President Xi Jinping when they attend the G-20 meeting next month in Japan.

Both countries have blamed each other for the breakdown in talks, which were intended to end trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies marked by tit-for-tat tariffs.

Trump made the remarks during a free-wheeling news conference after touting a plan rolled out by his administration to provide the country’s farmers with an aid package to combat the effects of the trade war, which have hit them particularly hard.

After Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods last year, China curbed purchases of U.S. soy, leaving farmers sitting on a stockpile of the commodity. China has also retaliated with tariffs on U.S. corn, pork and other products.

“The $16 billion in funds will help keep our cherished farms thriving and make clear that no country has veto on America’s economic and national security,” Trump said.


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China is driving growth in Asia’s real estate market despite trade war headwinds, report finds

Real estate markets in Asia-Pacific grew at a record-breaking pace in the first quarter of this year — thanks in part to China and despite a global decline, according to real estate consultancy JLL. The region recorded a new first-quarter high of $45 billion in real estate transaction volumes, according the company’s Global Capital Flows report for the first quarter of 2019. The “domestic consumption story is so strong” in China, JLL’s head of Asia Pacific capital markets Stuart Crow told CNBC’s


Real estate markets in Asia-Pacific grew at a record-breaking pace in the first quarter of this year — thanks in part to China and despite a global decline, according to real estate consultancy JLL. The region recorded a new first-quarter high of $45 billion in real estate transaction volumes, according the company’s Global Capital Flows report for the first quarter of 2019. The “domestic consumption story is so strong” in China, JLL’s head of Asia Pacific capital markets Stuart Crow told CNBC’s
China is driving growth in Asia’s real estate market despite trade war headwinds, report finds Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-24  Authors: shirley tay
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China is driving growth in Asia's real estate market despite trade war headwinds, report finds

Real estate markets in Asia-Pacific grew at a record-breaking pace in the first quarter of this year — thanks in part to China and despite a global decline, according to real estate consultancy JLL.

The region recorded a new first-quarter high of $45 billion in real estate transaction volumes, according the company’s Global Capital Flows report for the first quarter of 2019.

That’s a 14% increase compared to a year ago — outperforming the Americas, as well as Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), the JLL report showed.

“Driving this performance was China, where quarterly investment surged to an all-time high of US$17 billion due to an increase in cross-border capital inflows and large-scale transaction activity,” said the report which was released in May.

The “domestic consumption story is so strong” in China, JLL’s head of Asia Pacific capital markets Stuart Crow told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday.

“We’re seeing a huge amount of investment into the manufacturing — and most particularly in our world — the logistics real estate,” Crow added. “Even some of the big players in China themselves, being Alibaba and JD.com, (are) investing in that logistics real estate sector. “


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-24  Authors: shirley tay
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US Treasury yields tick higher amid ongoing trade war worries

Robert Mueller wants to testify in private before Congress,…Special counsel Robert Mueller wants to talk to Congress about his investigation into the Trump campaign and Russian interference in the 2016 election, but he wants to do it… Politicsread more


Robert Mueller wants to testify in private before Congress,…Special counsel Robert Mueller wants to talk to Congress about his investigation into the Trump campaign and Russian interference in the 2016 election, but he wants to do it… Politicsread more
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US Treasury yields tick higher amid ongoing trade war worries

Robert Mueller wants to testify in private before Congress,…

Special counsel Robert Mueller wants to talk to Congress about his investigation into the Trump campaign and Russian interference in the 2016 election, but he wants to do it…

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US Treasury yields tick higher amid ongoing trade war worries

Robert Mueller wants to testify in private before Congress,…Special counsel Robert Mueller wants to talk to Congress about his investigation into the Trump campaign and Russian interference in the 2016 election, but he wants to do it… Politicsread more


Robert Mueller wants to testify in private before Congress,…Special counsel Robert Mueller wants to talk to Congress about his investigation into the Trump campaign and Russian interference in the 2016 election, but he wants to do it… Politicsread more
US Treasury yields tick higher amid ongoing trade war worries Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-24  Authors: sam meredith
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US Treasury yields tick higher amid ongoing trade war worries

Robert Mueller wants to testify in private before Congress,…

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Dow set to rebound more than 100 points after Trump predicts a quick resolution to trade war

U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday after President Donald Trump said the ongoing trade war could be over quickly, but equities were still on pace to close lower for the week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 168 points, indicating a gain of 145 points at the open. Trump told reporters on Thursday afternoon he expected the U.S.-China trade war to end swiftly. He also noted a trade deal with China could lift tough restrictions on the Chinese telecom giant Huawei. The president’s comm


U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday after President Donald Trump said the ongoing trade war could be over quickly, but equities were still on pace to close lower for the week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 168 points, indicating a gain of 145 points at the open. Trump told reporters on Thursday afternoon he expected the U.S.-China trade war to end swiftly. He also noted a trade deal with China could lift tough restrictions on the Chinese telecom giant Huawei. The president’s comm
Dow set to rebound more than 100 points after Trump predicts a quick resolution to trade war Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-24  Authors: fred imbert silvia amaro, fred imbert, silvia amaro
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Dow set to rebound more than 100 points after Trump predicts a quick resolution to trade war

U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday after President Donald Trump said the ongoing trade war could be over quickly, but equities were still on pace to close lower for the week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 168 points, indicating a gain of 145 points at the open. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also pointed to solid gains at the open.

Trump told reporters on Thursday afternoon he expected the U.S.-China trade war to end swiftly. He also noted a trade deal with China could lift tough restrictions on the Chinese telecom giant Huawei.

The president’s comments lifted market sentiment at a time when investors are growing more convinced that the trade war will take longer than expected to conclude. The Dow and S&P 500 came into Friday’s session down more than 1% each for the week while the Nasdaq had lost 2.4%.

Crude prices are down more than 6% this week as trade worries spilled over to other markets. Investors also loaded up on Treasurys this week. On Thursday, the 10-year Treasury note yield fell to its lowest level since October 2017.

Energy and tech were the worst-performing sectors for the week coming into Friday. The energy sector is down 3.6% through Thursday’s close while tech — the largest S&P 500 sector by market weight — had lost 2.8%.

Chipmakers led tech down this week as the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dropped 5.1%. Qualcomm and Broadcom are the worst-performers in the ETF this week, dropping 16.3% and 10.3%, respectively.

Apple shares also contributed to the tech losses as several analysts raised concern over the company’s exposure to China. The stock is down nearly 5% this week.

“The growing worries around a US/China elongated trade battle and its implications on the tech space are heavily weighing on the minds of both investors and the companies themselves caught in the cross hairs,” Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush Securities, wrote in a note to clients. “The ‘poster child’ for the US/China trade wars continue to be Apple with the stock under heavy pressure as many competitors are yelling fire in a crowded theater around the potential China impact to Cupertino if this situation worsens.

In terms of data, the calendar is thin with only durable goods numbers out at 8:30 a.m. ET.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-24  Authors: fred imbert silvia amaro, fred imbert, silvia amaro
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Oil plunges 5.7% to $57.91 as US-China trade war raises fuel demand worries

Brent crude futures sank $3.35, or 4.7%, to $67.64 per barrel around 2:20 p.m. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled $3.51 lower at $57.91 per barrel, tumbling 5.7% to the lowest closing price since March 12. U.S. manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace since September 2009 this month, according to IHS Markit. Economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Thursday warned that weak crude demand appears to be spreading from developed nations to developing economies. “We are cu


Brent crude futures sank $3.35, or 4.7%, to $67.64 per barrel around 2:20 p.m. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled $3.51 lower at $57.91 per barrel, tumbling 5.7% to the lowest closing price since March 12. U.S. manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace since September 2009 this month, according to IHS Markit. Economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Thursday warned that weak crude demand appears to be spreading from developed nations to developing economies. “We are cu
Oil plunges 5.7% to $57.91 as US-China trade war raises fuel demand worries Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-23  Authors: tom dichristopher
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Oil plunges 5.7% to $57.91 as US-China trade war raises fuel demand worries

A Petrobras oil platform floats in the Atlantic Ocean near Guanabara Bay in Rio de Janeiro.

Oil prices tumbled nearly 6% on Thursday, extending steep losses in the previous sessions, as the market braced for a prolonged U.S.-China trade war and digested disappointing manufacturing data. Some analysts also pointed to signs that Middle East tensions are moderating.

Brent crude futures sank $3.35, or 4.7%, to $67.64 per barrel around 2:20 p.m. ET (1820 GMT). The international benchmark for oil prices hit a nearly two-month low earlier in the session and is on pace for its worst week since December.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled $3.51 lower at $57.91 per barrel, tumbling 5.7% to the lowest closing price since March 12. WTI is on track to end the week 7.7% lower and post the worst weekly performance in five months.

“The $60 level is a critical support point,” said John Kilduff, founding partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital.

“After $60, really it’s right down around $58 or so. Theoretically, if this thing really becomes a washout, $52 is the downside objective,” he said, cautioning that the move would not happen overnight.

Crude futures fell with the stock market as the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute entered a new phase. A wave of companies is suspending business with Huawei after the U.S. blacklisted the Chinese telecom giant.

Washington and Beijing are set to increase tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of one another’s goods, raising concerns about a global economic slowdown and weaker demand for oil.

U.S. manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace since September 2009 this month, according to IHS Markit.

Meanwhile, data released overnight showed Japanese manufacturing activity fell into contraction in May. Manufacturing activity for the European Union and Germany also came in below expectations.

Economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Thursday warned that weak crude demand appears to be spreading from developed nations to developing economies.

“One particular surprise is that China was weak in March, with diesel demand acting as a significant drag,” Oxford said in a research note. “We are currently forecasting 4% oil demand growth for this year, but this assumes a significant acceleration in the remainder of 2019.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-23  Authors: tom dichristopher
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Beijing experts’ latest message as trade talks stall: The US needs China

Now, there have been no announcements about the next round of talks, and markets await some signal about the future of the trade war that’s roiled stocks over the last year. This big economic system will give America more material benefits, including employment, including products, including product exports, including revenues,” Wei said, according to Mandarin-language remarks translated by CNBC. “Originally, we believed that in the U.S.-China economic trade relationship … we could mutually co


Now, there have been no announcements about the next round of talks, and markets await some signal about the future of the trade war that’s roiled stocks over the last year. This big economic system will give America more material benefits, including employment, including products, including product exports, including revenues,” Wei said, according to Mandarin-language remarks translated by CNBC. “Originally, we believed that in the U.S.-China economic trade relationship … we could mutually co
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Beijing experts' latest message as trade talks stall: The US needs China

A Chinese flag is seen in front of containers at the Yangshan Deep-Water Port, an automated cargo wharf, in Shanghai on April 9, 2018. Johannes Eisele | AFP | Getty Images

China’s domestic media is rallying the country’s population with messages of standing firm against American “bullying,” while Chinese government-aligned experts are stressing to an overseas audience that the U.S. will need to negotiate. The world’s two largest economies have been locked in a trade fight for more than a year. Both sides appeared to be making progress until early this month, when President Donald Trump accused China of reneging on a deal and raised tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese products to 25%. Beijing retaliated with raising levies on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. Now, there have been no announcements about the next round of talks, and markets await some signal about the future of the trade war that’s roiled stocks over the last year. Throughout this current lull, China’s state-run newspapers and television channels have taken an increasingly anti-American tone. Still, the country’s expert class is emphasizing what the U.S. has to gain from cooperating with Beijing. “In the next 20 to 30 years, the U.S. shouldn’t miss out on this opportunity and lose the China market,” Wei Jianguo, a former vice minister at China’s Ministry of Commerce, told CNBC in an interview Wednesday. He is now vice chairman and deputy executive officer at Beijing-based think tank China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

Personally, I think, as long as there is negotiation, then there will be results. Wei Jianguo a former vice minister at China’s Ministry of Commerce

“I believe Americans should grasp this opportunity. This big economic system will give America more material benefits, including employment, including products, including product exports, including revenues,” Wei said, according to Mandarin-language remarks translated by CNBC. “Personally, I think, as long as there is negotiation, then there will be results,” he said. On the same day, two speakers addressing foreign reporters at a small press event organized by the government’s main information office echoed some of Wei’s sentiments. “My personal view is that, from the perspective of U.S. businesses, if the trade war continues, it will … have a negative impact on what was a good relationship between U.S. and Chinese businesses,” said Li Yong, deputy director of the expert committee at the China Association of International Trade, which falls under the Commerce Ministry’s direct leadership. “At the end of the day, the image and influence U.S. businesses have developed over the long term will (be affected). It’s a pity.” The other speaker, Zhang Yansheng, head researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, also emphasized that Beijing would like to keep negotiating with the U.S. It could even be a years-long process that cycles through negotiation and fights, he said. The tone stands in contrast to state-run media, whose Chinese-language reports in the last two weeks have promoted the country’s ability to defy pressure from the U.S. For the last several days, the national broadcaster CCTV has also been airing anti-U.S. movies set during the Korean War. On Wednesday, the prime-time evening report featured Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit earlier in the week to the province of Jiangxi. The Chinese leader’s remarks during the visit about rare earth elements as an “important strategic resource” and a “new Long March ” signaled to many that Beijing is resolved not to bend to American demands.

Who needs a deal?

At Wednesday’s news conference, Li said China is in a position where it can’t appease American demands. “Originally, we believed that in the U.S.-China economic trade relationship … we could mutually cooperate and rely on each other,” he said in Mandarin. “But now we need to revisit this.” Analysts generally agree that, right now, Beijing still depends heavily on the U.S. as an export market. Last year, China was the largest supplier of goods to the U.S. at $539.5 billion, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. China is trying to transform its economy into one driven by consumption rather than manufacturing. The country hosted its first import expo last fall in an effort to bill itself and its hundreds of millions of consumers as a buyer of the world’s products. “China needs the U.S. more than the U.S. needs China,” said Jacob Shapiro, director of analysis at online publication Geopolitical Futures.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-23  Authors: evelyn cheng
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Trump administration unveils $16 billion bailout to farmers hurt by China trade war

Farmer walks through his soy fields July 6, 2018, in Harvard, Illinois, the same day China imposed retaliatory tariffs aimed at the US soybean market. The Trump administration on Thursday announced a $16 billion trade aid program for American farmers that includes a three-pronged aid package for American farmers who have been hurt by the U.S. trade war with China. The centerpiece is cash payments totaling $14.5 billion to producers of a variety of crops as well as dairy and pork producers impact


Farmer walks through his soy fields July 6, 2018, in Harvard, Illinois, the same day China imposed retaliatory tariffs aimed at the US soybean market. The Trump administration on Thursday announced a $16 billion trade aid program for American farmers that includes a three-pronged aid package for American farmers who have been hurt by the U.S. trade war with China. The centerpiece is cash payments totaling $14.5 billion to producers of a variety of crops as well as dairy and pork producers impact
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Trump administration unveils $16 billion bailout to farmers hurt by China trade war

Farmer walks through his soy fields July 6, 2018, in Harvard, Illinois, the same day China imposed retaliatory tariffs aimed at the US soybean market.

The Trump administration on Thursday announced a $16 billion trade aid program for American farmers that includes a three-pronged aid package for American farmers who have been hurt by the U.S. trade war with China.

The centerpiece is cash payments totaling $14.5 billion to producers of a variety of crops as well as dairy and pork producers impacted by retaliatory tariffs. U.S. tariff revenue collected by the Treasury would be used to support the program, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“The package we’re announcing today ensures that farmers will not bear the brunt of those trade practices by China or any other nation,” Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said Thursday on a press call.

In addition, the government plans bulk purchases of about $1.4 billion of fresh produce and other food products impacted by tariffs. Food would be used to help food banks, pantries and school meal programs.

The USDA also plans a $100 million trade promotion program for livestock producers and certain crops to help industry sectors develop new markets. A similar program was launched as part of the administration’s 2018 trade relief program for agriculture.

“Frankly, all of this would have been moot if China had acted appropriately and fairly in many of the areas regarding intellectual property theft and non-tariff barriers that they have put up for many years,” Perdue said.

According to USDA chief economist Rob Johansson, the department’s $14.5 billion direct payment program to farmers is above the administration’s $12 billion plan announced last year. He said the new farm relief program looks at trade damages from last year’s tariffs but also goes back to previous actions by China and other trading partners with retaliatory levies against American agriculture.

“We are looking back a number of years to look at what China has purchased from us in the past, and we’re bringing that into our baseline,” Johansson told reporters.

Soybean farmers have been among the hardest hit in the China trade war in terms of dollar value. Before the trade war, China bought roughly half of the U.S. soybean exports. But the value of soybean exports to China fell 74% to $3.1 billion in 2018 from about $12.2 billion the previous year, according to the USDA.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2019-05-23  Authors: jeff daniels christina wilkie, jeff daniels, christina wilkie
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, usda, war, trump, trade, china, program, farmers, administration, unveils, soybean, hurt, billion, retaliatory, tariffs, bailout


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