Chinese stocks surge, but looming uncertainties could drag markets down again

Chinese stocks surged more than 4 percent on Monday, but experts warned the markets could fall again due to future uncertainty. The strong gains on Monday came after a series of reassuring statements from Chinese authorities over the weekend, which helped Chinese stocks extend Friday’s gains. In the medium term, Chinese stocks could be of “good value,” Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, told CNBC. AMP’s Oliver said that Chinese shares are “cheap and (of


Chinese stocks surged more than 4 percent on Monday, but experts warned the markets could fall again due to future uncertainty. The strong gains on Monday came after a series of reassuring statements from Chinese authorities over the weekend, which helped Chinese stocks extend Friday’s gains. In the medium term, Chinese stocks could be of “good value,” Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, told CNBC. AMP’s Oliver said that Chinese shares are “cheap and (of
Chinese stocks surge, but looming uncertainties could drag markets down again Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-22  Authors: weizhen tan, greg baker, afp, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, chinese, report, drag, market, investment, markets, growth, surge, tensions, looming, uncertainties, stocks, bank, tax


Chinese stocks surge, but looming uncertainties could drag markets down again

Chinese stocks surged more than 4 percent on Monday, but experts warned the markets could fall again due to future uncertainty.

The strong gains on Monday came after a series of reassuring statements from Chinese authorities over the weekend, which helped Chinese stocks extend Friday’s gains.

The Shanghai composite jumped by 4.09 percent while the Shenzhen composite surged 4.9 percent. The Nasdaq-style Chinext leaped by more than 5 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index closed 2.4 percent higher.

In the medium term, Chinese stocks could be of “good value,” Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, told CNBC. However, he cautioned that there’s too much uncertainty around trade tensions and the growth slowdown to “say they have bottomed with any confidence.”

“We have seen a few false bottoms this year,” he added.

Vasu Menon, senior investment strategist at OCBC Bank told CNBC that trade tensions may continue to cast a shadow over China and it “doesn’t look like it’s going to end anytime soon.”

“So you see a rebound today, but does it mean that the markets have turned a corner and you know, will hit higher? I’m not sure, I don’t think so,” Menon said.

Some market observers, however, found the valuations to be attractive.

AMP’s Oliver said that Chinese shares are “cheap and (of) good value” for investors in the next five years.

“After the recent market pullback, Chinese equities’ valuations may be getting attractive, given Chinese corporates’ resilient sales and earnings growth,” Deutsche Bank Wealth Management said in a report on Monday. The bank added that other factors — such as the easing of tensions after the U.S. midterm elections in November — could come into play to support the market in the medium term.

There are also signs of a recovery in Chinese infrastructure investment in November, according to the report, with the country’s fiscal policy stance turning more supportive of growth since July this year.

Finally, tax cuts could also play a role.

“There have been growing discussions in China whether the government should cut tax more aggressively to support growth … but tax cut would be one possible catalyst for Chinese stock markets, if they happen,” said the Deutsche Bank report.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-22  Authors: weizhen tan, greg baker, afp, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, chinese, report, drag, market, investment, markets, growth, surge, tensions, looming, uncertainties, stocks, bank, tax


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China’s GDP disappoints, but stocks surge anyway as officials pledge to support markets

Greater China markets made a strong comeback on Friday afternoon, following a series of measures announced by Chinese leaders to support the struggling stock market. Thursday had seen a sell-off in the mainland Chinese markets, with the Shanghai index seeing its lowest point since November 2014. China’s securities regulator unveiled a series of measures to aid the country’s struggling stock market, which had been on a downward trajectory all year. “The market is oversold anyway, the market is so


Greater China markets made a strong comeback on Friday afternoon, following a series of measures announced by Chinese leaders to support the struggling stock market. Thursday had seen a sell-off in the mainland Chinese markets, with the Shanghai index seeing its lowest point since November 2014. China’s securities regulator unveiled a series of measures to aid the country’s struggling stock market, which had been on a downward trajectory all year. “The market is oversold anyway, the market is so
China’s GDP disappoints, but stocks surge anyway as officials pledge to support markets Cached Page below :
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Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, disappoints, index, hong, chinese, markets, china, oversold, surge, stocks, stock, gdp, officials, chinas, policy, market, support, pledge


China's GDP disappoints, but stocks surge anyway as officials pledge to support markets

Greater China markets made a strong comeback on Friday afternoon, following a series of measures announced by Chinese leaders to support the struggling stock market.

After a turbulent morning following weaker-than-expected GDP data and a sharp sell-off the day before, shares in the mainland rebounded, rising more than 2 percent.

By market close, the Shanghai composite and the Shenzhen composite had surged 2.58 percent, while the Nasdaq-style Chinext index went up 3.18 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.51 percent as at 3.21 p.m. HK/SIN.

Thursday had seen a sell-off in the mainland Chinese markets, with the Shanghai index seeing its lowest point since November 2014.

Investors had also been jittery after China’s GDP numbers were released, showing that economic growth slowed to 6.5 percent year-over-year in the third quarter. That missed expectations for 6.6 percent growth, according to analysts polled by Reuters. Friday’s print was the weakest pace since the first quarter of 2009.

But on Friday morning, the heads of the People’s Bank of China, the Securities Regulatory Commission and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission all issued statements expressing support for the stock market and positive economic fundamentals.

China’s securities regulator unveiled a series of measures to aid the country’s struggling stock market, which had been on a downward trajectory all year. It said it would encourage funds to help ease liquidity difficulties at listed companies, and would support share buy-backs.

However, Hao Hong, head of research and chief strategist at Bank of Communications (International), said China was already poised for an “oversold rebound” — even without the supportive comments from the regulators.

“The market is oversold anyway, the market is so oversold it’s not funny,” he told CNBC on the phone.

“If you want to make a speech to support the stock market now may be the right time,” Hong said, noting that would give “more bang for your buck.”

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia, meanwhile, said in an afternoon note that the GDP data released on Friday is “likely to encourage the Chinese authorities to keep macro-economic policy settings supportive.”

“We expect monetary policy to remain ‘prudent’ and fiscal policy to remain ‘more proactive’,” the note said.

— CNBC’s Huileng Tan, Yen Nee Lee, Evelyn Cheng and Reuters contributed to the story.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-19  Authors: weizhen tan, eustance huang, vcg, visual china group, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, disappoints, index, hong, chinese, markets, china, oversold, surge, stocks, stock, gdp, officials, chinas, policy, market, support, pledge


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A crackdown in China is bad news for four Japanese stocks, expert says

Investors would do well to avoid stocks of popular Japanese cosmetics companies amid a crackdown on Chinese visitors to Japan who would buy beauty products in bulk and re-sell them back home, according to one expert. Speaking to CNBC on Wednesday, Andrew Jackson, head of Japanese equities at SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), warned about four stocks in particular: Japanese beauty brands Pola Orbis, Kose, Fancl and Shiseido. Since the beginning of October, when reports of the crackdown started


Investors would do well to avoid stocks of popular Japanese cosmetics companies amid a crackdown on Chinese visitors to Japan who would buy beauty products in bulk and re-sell them back home, according to one expert. Speaking to CNBC on Wednesday, Andrew Jackson, head of Japanese equities at SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), warned about four stocks in particular: Japanese beauty brands Pola Orbis, Kose, Fancl and Shiseido. Since the beginning of October, when reports of the crackdown started
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Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, selling, visitors, orbis, kose, beauty, crackdown, china, bad, japanese, stocks, yen, expert, pola


A crackdown in China is bad news for four Japanese stocks, expert says

Investors would do well to avoid stocks of popular Japanese cosmetics companies amid a crackdown on Chinese visitors to Japan who would buy beauty products in bulk and re-sell them back home, according to one expert.

Speaking to CNBC on Wednesday, Andrew Jackson, head of Japanese equities at SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), warned about four stocks in particular: Japanese beauty brands Pola Orbis, Kose, Fancl and Shiseido.

There have been multiple reports since the beginning of October about Chinese customs stepping up checks on travelers bringing in beauty goods purchased overseas. For the last few years, there have been many informal cosmetics dealerships making a profit by selling goods at prices cheaper than official distributors in China but higher than the prices in Japan.

Since the beginning of October, when reports of the crackdown started surfacing, shares of those major Japanese names have plunged. As of Wednesday’s close, Shiseido and Pola Orbis had dropped about 18 percent, and Kose and Fancl had both fallen about 16 percent.

Shiseido, Kose and Pola — a subsidiary of the Pola Orbis group — sold a combined 93.9 billion yen ($834 million) in beauty products to foreign visitors in 2017. That was up 80 percent from 50.5 billion yen in 2015, according to media reports.

In particular, Jackson singled out Pola Orbis as his “No. 1 short,” referring to the process of selling borrowed shares in the hopes of buying back the same stock at a lower price and turning a profit.

“At this point, you want to be looking at names that don’t have a very extensive distribution network domestically within China. Pola Orbis stands out because their hit product, (which) is called Wrinkle Shot, that has been selling like crazy everywhere else except for China, where it’s yet to get China’s equivalent of FDA approval,” he said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Street Signs,” referring to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-18  Authors: weizhen tan, yuriko nakao, bloomberg, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, selling, visitors, orbis, kose, beauty, crackdown, china, bad, japanese, stocks, yen, expert, pola


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Asia’s natural gas prices are rising. Now higher oil prices and tariffs could cause more pain

Prices of Asia’s natural gas jumped this year — in tandem with crude — as most of the region’s long-term LNG contracts are linked to oil prices, Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at HIS Markit, told CNBC in an email. “With world oil prices having moved higher in recent weeks as US sanctions on Iranian oil exports will be implemented in November, this is contributing to further upward pressure on Asian LNG contract prices,” he added. When U.S. sanctions on Iran kick in next month, they c


Prices of Asia’s natural gas jumped this year — in tandem with crude — as most of the region’s long-term LNG contracts are linked to oil prices, Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at HIS Markit, told CNBC in an email. “With world oil prices having moved higher in recent weeks as US sanctions on Iranian oil exports will be implemented in November, this is contributing to further upward pressure on Asian LNG contract prices,” he added. When U.S. sanctions on Iran kick in next month, they c
Asia’s natural gas prices are rising. Now higher oil prices and tariffs could cause more pain Cached Page below :
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Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, pain, prices, wood, supply, higher, natural, cause, rising, barrel, lng, asian, asias, demand, tariffs, browne, oil, gas


Asia's natural gas prices are rising. Now higher oil prices and tariffs could cause more pain

Prices of Asia’s natural gas jumped this year — in tandem with crude — as most of the region’s long-term LNG contracts are linked to oil prices, Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at HIS Markit, told CNBC in an email.

“With world oil prices having moved higher in recent weeks as US sanctions on Iranian oil exports will be implemented in November, this is contributing to further upward pressure on Asian LNG contract prices,” he added. Average Chinese gas import prices jumped 23 percent compared to a year ago in the second quarter, while Japanese contract prices were up 17 percent in the same period.

When U.S. sanctions on Iran kick in next month, they could push oil prices to above $90 per barrel, some analysts predicted. During Asian trade on Tuesday afternoon, Brent crude was at $81.04 per barrel, and U.S. crude futures at $71.84 a barrel — up from above $60 per barrel at the start of this year.

Asia’s spot LNG market — which has been growing steadily — will also be hit in the short term. Biswas expects Asian spot prices to move even higher to $11.85 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by January 2019. Spot prices for the October delivery in Asia were at $11.40 per mmBtu, up 30 cents in a week, according to a Aug. 24 Reuters report.

Meanwhile, supply from Australia, the world’s largest exporter of LNG, is tightening as domestic demand is fighting for a share of the pie with Asia. That situation will remain until 2028, according to Nicholas Browne, director of gas and LNG research at Wood Mackenzie.

The bulk of growth in Asian demand is coming from China, as it switches from coal to gas.

Chinese demand has jumped 150 percent between 2017 and 2018 — making up half of the global demand growth, according to Wood Mackenzie in a report. China is expected to import record amounts of LNG again this winter, Browne added.

But Wood Mackenzie’s supply forecast for Australia shows that “from 2028 there is not enough gas to meet both LNG contracts and demand,” Browne said. “More gas will need to be developed and commercialised, or LNG imported, to meet the needs of both the domestic market and to fulfil LNG contracts.”

“However, no new easy and economical sources of supply are currently available to the market,” he concluded.

That could hit major buyers of Australian LNG, such as China’s Sinopec and Malaysia’s Petronas, Browne said.

According to a Wood Mackenzie report this week, some decisions surrounding future new LNG projects in Russia, the U.S. and Qatar might be coming up, while producers in Southeast Asia may expand their facilities to meet the demand.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-17  Authors: weizhen tan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, pain, prices, wood, supply, higher, natural, cause, rising, barrel, lng, asian, asias, demand, tariffs, browne, oil, gas


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The case of the missing Saudi journalist is creating major worries around the oil market

As Saudi Arabia pushes back against international pressure that it played a role in the disappearance of a prominent journalist, analysts are warning there could be fallout for global oil markets. Turkey reportedly believes the Washington Post journalist and critic of the Saudi administration was deliberately killed inside the building and his body removed. The stock market in Saudi Arabia plunged on Sunday, and analysts believe oil could be the next to be affected. Oil prices rose on Monday aft


As Saudi Arabia pushes back against international pressure that it played a role in the disappearance of a prominent journalist, analysts are warning there could be fallout for global oil markets. Turkey reportedly believes the Washington Post journalist and critic of the Saudi administration was deliberately killed inside the building and his body removed. The stock market in Saudi Arabia plunged on Sunday, and analysts believe oil could be the next to be affected. Oil prices rose on Monday aft
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Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-15  Authors: weizhen tan, umar farooq, anadolu agency, getty images
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, missing, prices, major, source, khashoggi, case, killed, international, oil, creating, arabia, worries, journalist, market, saudi


The case of the missing Saudi journalist is creating major worries around the oil market

As Saudi Arabia pushes back against international pressure that it played a role in the disappearance of a prominent journalist, analysts are warning there could be fallout for global oil markets.

Relations between the kingdom and the some parts of the international community have deteriorated rapidly after Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist who resided in the U.S., disappeared early this month after visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

Turkey reportedly believes the Washington Post journalist and critic of the Saudi administration was deliberately killed inside the building and his body removed. Riyadh has dismissed the claims.

The stock market in Saudi Arabia plunged on Sunday, and analysts believe oil could be the next to be affected.

Robert Carnell, chief economist head of research at ING, said the incident “opens a new source of risk.”

“Any Saudi retaliation will presumably mainly come through reduced oil supply and higher prices. That won’t help market sentiment,” he wrote in a note on Monday.

Oil prices rose on Monday afternoon during Asian trade, with Brent crude jumping 1.29 percent to $81.47 per barrel, and U.S. crude futures rising 1.14 percent to $72.15 a barrel.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday there would be “severe punishment” for Saudi Arabia if it turned out that Khashoggi was killed in the consulate. But the Middle Eastern country said on Sunday it would retaliate to possible economic sanctions taken by other states over the case, the state news agency SPA reported, quoting an official source.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-15  Authors: weizhen tan, umar farooq, anadolu agency, getty images
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‘I would not associate Jay Powell with craziness,’ says IMF’s Christine Lagarde

International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde said Thursday she “would not associate” U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell “with craziness.” “I would not associate Jay Powell with craziness. Lagarde made the comment in response to a question from CNBC’s Geoff Cutmore about U.S. President Donald Trump. I think the Fed has gone crazy,” the president said after walking off Air Force One in Erie, Pennsylvania for a rally. Lagarde added: “All over the world, it is certainly a


International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde said Thursday she “would not associate” U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell “with craziness.” “I would not associate Jay Powell with craziness. Lagarde made the comment in response to a question from CNBC’s Geoff Cutmore about U.S. President Donald Trump. I think the Fed has gone crazy,” the president said after walking off Air Force One in Erie, Pennsylvania for a rally. Lagarde added: “All over the world, it is certainly a
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Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, walking, christine, jay, associate, president, bank, fed, imfs, craziness, certainly, central, powell, think, world, lagarde


'I would not associate Jay Powell with craziness,' says IMF's Christine Lagarde

International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde said Thursday she “would not associate” U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell “with craziness.”

“I would not associate Jay Powell with craziness. No, no, he comes across, and members of his board, as extremely serious, solid and certainly keen to base their decisions on actual information, and decide to communicate that properly,” she said, speaking to CNBC at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bali, Indonesia.

Lagarde made the comment in response to a question from CNBC’s Geoff Cutmore about U.S. President Donald Trump. The American leader knocked the Fed on Wednesday for continuing to raise interest rates despite some recent market turbulence.

“I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy,” the president said after walking off Air Force One in Erie, Pennsylvania for a rally.

Lagarde added: “All over the world, it is certainly a good principle to have independence of the central banks and of the central bank governors. Certainly we have advocated that in all countries, and I think that the Fed is no exception.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-11  Authors: weizhen tan, ted kemp, kazuhiro nogi, afp, getty images
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World Bank president warns: Debt and trade problems are painting ‘a troubling picture’

Amid U.S.-China trade tensions and high levels of debt faced by low income countries, one message is clear, the president of the World Bank Group said on Thursday: Trade is important for the poor. Speaking to CNBC on Thursday at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bali, Indonesia, Jim Yong Kim said that the World Bank is trying to get the message across that trade is critical. Currently, he said, there are risks from trade growth going down and many low income countries becoming more indeb


Amid U.S.-China trade tensions and high levels of debt faced by low income countries, one message is clear, the president of the World Bank Group said on Thursday: Trade is important for the poor. Speaking to CNBC on Thursday at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bali, Indonesia, Jim Yong Kim said that the World Bank is trying to get the message across that trade is critical. Currently, he said, there are risks from trade growth going down and many low income countries becoming more indeb
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World Bank president warns: Debt and trade problems are painting 'a troubling picture'

Amid U.S.-China trade tensions and high levels of debt faced by low income countries, one message is clear, the president of the World Bank Group said on Thursday: Trade is important for the poor.

Speaking to CNBC on Thursday at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bali, Indonesia, Jim Yong Kim said that the World Bank is trying to get the message across that trade is critical.

“We are trying to put evidence on the table which says trade is critical if we want to end extreme poverty,” he said. “Evidence is simply: We are here to end poverty, trade is important for that.”

Currently, he said, there are risks from trade growth going down and many low income countries becoming more indebted.

“We’re worried about trade tensions, we’re worried about the fact that many many lower income countries have now gone into a level of indebtedness,” he said. “It’s a troubling picture.”

Kim added: “On the other hand, the message we are trying to give here is: Let’s do everything we can to prepare for whatever trade tensions might exist. We’re preparing developing countries that are in the midst of trying to understand what will happen to those trade tensions.”

What those countries need to do is “very clear,” he said: “They need to get their fiscal house in order, they need to have monetary policy that makes sense, and that doesn’t try to manipulate currencies.”

Commenting at a Thursday news conference, Kim said he is very concerned about the trade tensions between China and the United States and warned of a clear hit to global growth if all countries escalated their tariff threats.

He added that more study is needed to understand the effects of trade war on countries that supply goods and services to China.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-11  Authors: weizhen tan
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We’re being punished for ‘doing the right thing’: Philippine Finance secretary

The Philippines is in a good position to deal with emerging markets rout: its finance secretary says 1 Hour Ago | 02:18The Philippines is “being punished” for managing its economy in the right way, given the effect of tightening U.S. monetary policy on the embattled emerging market, Philippine Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez suggested on Thursday. Speaking to CNBC at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bali, Indonesia, Dominguez said that the U.S. should consider that its actions “affect every


The Philippines is in a good position to deal with emerging markets rout: its finance secretary says 1 Hour Ago | 02:18The Philippines is “being punished” for managing its economy in the right way, given the effect of tightening U.S. monetary policy on the embattled emerging market, Philippine Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez suggested on Thursday. Speaking to CNBC at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bali, Indonesia, Dominguez said that the U.S. should consider that its actions “affect every
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We're being punished for 'doing the right thing': Philippine Finance secretary

The Philippines is in a good position to deal with emerging markets rout: its finance secretary says 1 Hour Ago | 02:18

The Philippines is “being punished” for managing its economy in the right way, given the effect of tightening U.S. monetary policy on the embattled emerging market, Philippine Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez suggested on Thursday.

Speaking to CNBC at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bali, Indonesia, Dominguez said that the U.S. should consider that its actions “affect everybody.”

“It affects the entire world, capital flows back to the U.S., and we’re trying our darndest here, being punished for something we’re doing right,” he said, responding to the news that U.S. President Donald Trump said the Fed has “gone crazy” in continuing to raise interest rates.

The Philippine central bank in September raised rates for the fourth time in five months, and has signaled that it’s prepared to tighten monetary policy further to support its currency, if needed.

Despite having already embarked on tightening, the Philippine peso has taken a battering from the recent emerging markets rout, which analysts have blamed partly on weak sentiment and a strong U.S. dollar pushed by rising rates.

Still, Dominguez said that the Southeast Asian country is in a “pretty good” position to deal with the emerging markets rout. He pointed to its “solid” foreign exchange reserves, strong banking system and fiscal position.

The Philippines will not cut its infrastructure spending just to be cautious about its deficit spending, he said, but instead may look into dialing down on non-infrastructure expenditure.

“Infrastructure for us is a real critical investment that we have to make,” he said, adding that the Philippines only averaged 2.3 percent of GDP in infrastructure spending in the past 50 years.

“Our economy’s choking. We have very bad traffic situation, our ports and airports need to be upgraded … Some time in the future, we will have to re-think that this is the last thing we are going to cut,” Dominguez said.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-11  Authors: weizhen tan
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A ‘geopolitical recession’ has arrived and the US-led world order is ending, Ian Bremmer says

The world is entering a “geopolitical recession,” heralding the end of the U.S.-led global order, according to prominent political analyst Ian Bremmer. Speaking at the ANZ Finance & Treasury Forum in Singapore, Bremmer said: “This geopolitical recession is something really simple — it’s the end of the U.S.-led global order. He said: “I’m much more concerned that when the next economic recession hits … And certainly there’s not as much free money, and when the corporates are tightening their belt


The world is entering a “geopolitical recession,” heralding the end of the U.S.-led global order, according to prominent political analyst Ian Bremmer. Speaking at the ANZ Finance & Treasury Forum in Singapore, Bremmer said: “This geopolitical recession is something really simple — it’s the end of the U.S.-led global order. He said: “I’m much more concerned that when the next economic recession hits … And certainly there’s not as much free money, and when the corporates are tightening their belt
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A 'geopolitical recession' has arrived and the US-led world order is ending, Ian Bremmer says

The world is entering a “geopolitical recession,” heralding the end of the U.S.-led global order, according to prominent political analyst Ian Bremmer.

Speaking at the ANZ Finance & Treasury Forum in Singapore, Bremmer said: “This geopolitical recession is something really simple — it’s the end of the U.S.-led global order. And we don’t know what is replacing it yet.”

Bremmer, who is the president and founder of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, suggested a new economic downturn would lead to greater fragmentation across the globe.

He said: “I’m much more concerned that when the next economic recession hits … And certainly there’s not as much free money, and when the corporates are tightening their belts, then we’ll get into trouble. In other words, the political implications of the next economic down-cycle will be much greater dislocation.”

He believes a major reason for the current political disruption is that the “geopolitical order is no longer as aligned with the United States and its allies.”

He added that the relationships between Americans and Europeans had deteriorated with the latter becoming weaker on the global stage. He also pointed to the rise of China and said that, overall, emerging markets are becoming more important.

“The Americans are less interested in exporting democracy … Today there is an argument to be made that the Americans are exporting populism,” he said, pointing to the new anti-establishment government in Italy. Coming to power in early June, Italy currently has a ruling coalition that is made up of the right-wing Lega party and the left-leaning Five Star Movement.


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-10  Authors: weizhen tan, sean gallup, getty images, andrew harrer, bloomberg
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The US-China dispute ‘is not about the trade deficit,’ Barclays says

The US-China trade war is ‘not going to settle down’ soon: Barclays 4 Hours Ago | 02:03Investors should look beyond the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in gauging the tense geopolitical situation between the U.S. and China, according to Barclays’ head of macro research. The issues at the heart of U.S.-China relations go beyond trade tensions, which some analysts have said may ease after the U.S. midterm elections, Barclay’s Ajay Rajadhyaksha told CNBC at the Barclays Asia Forum in Singapore. Whi


The US-China trade war is ‘not going to settle down’ soon: Barclays 4 Hours Ago | 02:03Investors should look beyond the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in gauging the tense geopolitical situation between the U.S. and China, according to Barclays’ head of macro research. The issues at the heart of U.S.-China relations go beyond trade tensions, which some analysts have said may ease after the U.S. midterm elections, Barclay’s Ajay Rajadhyaksha told CNBC at the Barclays Asia Forum in Singapore. Whi
The US-China dispute ‘is not about the trade deficit,’ Barclays says Cached Page below :
Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-09  Authors: weizhen tan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, administration, uschina, war, technology, barclays, dispute, trump, deficit, tensions, settle, china, trade


The US-China dispute 'is not about the trade deficit,' Barclays says

The US-China trade war is ‘not going to settle down’ soon: Barclays 4 Hours Ago | 02:03

Investors should look beyond the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in gauging the tense geopolitical situation between the U.S. and China, according to Barclays’ head of macro research.

The issues at the heart of U.S.-China relations go beyond trade tensions, which some analysts have said may ease after the U.S. midterm elections, Barclay’s Ajay Rajadhyaksha told CNBC at the Barclays Asia Forum in Singapore. While some have speculated that U.S. President Trump may simply be escalating the trade war with China, to distract voters from troubles at home.

But investors hoping to wait out the tensions until the Nov. 6 midterms may be in for a surprise: “They still need to keep waiting for a while,” said Rajadhyaksha.

“This is not the U.S. and NAFTA. This is not the U.S. and the European Union … There is a significant part of the U.S. administration that is worried about China’s technology ambitions,” he said, adding that trade frictions will not settle down anytime soon.

The issue of technology transfers has cast a shadow on relations between the two economic powerhouses, with the Trump administration initially imposing tariffs on Chinese imports to penalize China for trade practices that it said involved stealing American companies’ intellectual property.

The world’s second-largest economy has a “Made in China 2025” program, which is a strategic plan to make China a leader in key global industries. Among those sectors targeted by Beijing is the high technology space.

Rajadhyaksha said: “The administration wants fundamental change in how the Chinese treat intellectual property, how they talk to technology companies looking to invest in China. This is not about the trade deficit. If it was, it would be easy to solve.”


Company: cnbc, Activity: cnbc, Date: 2018-10-09  Authors: weizhen tan
Keywords: news, cnbc, companies, administration, uschina, war, technology, barclays, dispute, trump, deficit, tensions, settle, china, trade


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